Drafting is hard!

[fhomess]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

Look on the bright side, you're probably doing just as well in the draft as Dayton Moore ever does and they actually pay him a salary.

Actually, that just makes me insanely jealous.

[BradC]

Thanks for this, BIG17EASY. I am putting it in tomorrow's newsletter, with credit to you, as an OOTP 15 tip.

[The Wolf]

Originally Posted by fhomess

Actually, that just makes me insanely jealous.

Bill James used to say that the average MLB manager would finish dead last in a good simulation league. I'd bet that's true of GM's as well.

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Once you get past the first 3-4 rounds, change your relative ratings to Triple-A, then after 3-4 more rounds, change them to Double-A, and so on and so forth. While you won't suddenly see big-time MLB prospects, you will be able to differentiate between the remaining players. At least for me, that makes it feel like if I find a guy with high minor league potential and good work ethic, maybe there's a chance he'll exceed those expectations and make it to the big leagues.

That's pretty clever!

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by BradC

Thanks for this, BIG17EASY. I am putting it in tomorrow's newsletter, with credit to you, as an OOTP 15 tip.

Thanks, Brad. There are others who have been touting this method, as well, so I don't deserve all the credit. I'm just bored at work at the right time, haha.

[Honorable_Pawn]

Originally Posted by wuttang

And without a feeder league, stats r useless.

Not necessarily true. Those stats are informative when the level of competition is considered. They are generated from an algorithm that takes the players ratings into account.

I think if you plotted the stats that draftees are created with in Excel and ran some regression analysis on them you would definitely see a strong direct correlation between those stats and actual ratings.

The big question though is if those generated stats only take into consideration current actual. My guess is that the correlation would be pretty much weaker when compared to potential. Another thing that blurs the issue is the new setting that has the AI favor actual vs. current in line-up selection. I'm not sure how much impact that would have, if any, on pre-generated stats.

My take-away from all of this discussion is that once again I wish that high potential guys start off with better actual. What I mean by this is let's say that we have two players on a HS team.

One is an All-American talent with very low potential. He's currently the best hitter in HS but is projected to not improve at all. Since he has the highest ratings he tears it up stat-wise. He will never improve though and will likely never get drafted even though he puts up the best stats.

The other is a scrub with Hall of Fame potential. The first guy had an OPS of 1.100 and the second guy hit .244. The 2nd guy will likely be one of the best players ever. Even though he got owned by HS pitching he is somehow considered a better prospect.

So, yeah, I hear what you are saying. The whole potential thing needs to be tweaked. The players who have the highest potential should start off with higher ratings too, IMO.

Anyhow..to say the stats mean nothing is not true. They tell you about actual current ratings....I think.

[jpeters1734]

I think it's fun in the later rounds to try and find potential two way players.

Too many people complain about the draft not looking like it has talent. After the first few rounds the chance of you drafting a regular starter or better is very slim. It makes sense that the draft looks the way it does. What do you want, 30 players that look like they could be superstars? Does any GM really believe he's drafting a super star after the top 15?

Use the league relative feature. It really works. It's one of my favorite features, actually.




MLB Draft Success Rates - Minor League Ball

[SirMichaelJordan]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

That's pretty clever!

could you guys make it so that we can change the relative ratings inside the draft pool similar to how we can change it in the player's profile card?

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by SirMichaelJordan

could you guys make it so that we can change the relative ratings inside the draft pool similar to how we can change it in the player's profile card?

If you change it in the card and exit out, the ratings will stay relative to the league you selected in the player card.

Unless, you are asking for the dropdown menu outside the player card, which I would love by the way. I use the feature a lot, especially in the rosters and transactions for minor leagues. It would be nice to not have to open a playercard, select the league, and then exit the player card.

Another thing I would like to see, is regarding the scouting reports. Say I select the relative to AA and forget to change it back to MLB. If AA is still selected when a scouting report comes out, it will be of that level. Even if you change it back to MLB, that one report will look like the player had massive leaps in talent.

[SirMichaelJordan]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

If you change it in the card and exit out, the ratings will stay relative to the league you selected in the player card.

Unless, you are asking for the dropdown menu outside the player card, which I would love by the way. I use the feature a lot, especially in the rosters and transactions for minor leagues. It would be nice to not have to open a playercard, select the league, and then exit the player card.

Another thing I would like to see, is regarding the scouting reports. Say I select the relative to AA and forget to change it back to MLB. If AA is still selected when a scouting report comes out, it will be of that level. Even if you change it back to MLB, that one report will look like the player had massive leaps in talent.

Oh I know about that little glitch, I suggested to guys like The Wolf to do just that when everyone had that big debate about the draft around release day.

Im asking for a drop down menu to make it easy for everyone else.

[The Wolf]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Thanks, Brad. There are others who have been touting this method, as well, so I don't deserve all the credit. I'm just bored at work at the right time, haha.

If memory serves, it was originally SirMichaelJordan's idea.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

If memory serves, it was originally SirMichaelJordan's idea.

It may have been. Not to take away anything from him, but I figured it out on my own. I'm quite certain he posted it on these boards before I did, which is why I said others have been touting it, as well. Certainly not trying to take any credit for "finding" this way of drafting. Just trying to share it as often as possible to help people.

[SirMichaelJordan]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

It may have been. Not to take away anything from him, but I figured it out on my own. I'm quite certain he posted it on these boards before I did, which is why I said others have been touting it, as well. Certainly not trying to take any credit for "finding" this way of drafting. Just trying to share it as often as possible to help people.

Don't worry I'm not trying to claim credit on anything. We're all here to help each other out.

[The Wolf]

Originally Posted by SirMichaelJordan

Don't worry I'm not trying to claim credit on anything. We're all here to help each other out.

Certainly, but you deserve at least a co-mention if somebody's going to get mentioned since it was originally your idea.

Fair's fair, and all that.

[aquapong]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Once you get past the first 3-4 rounds, change your relative ratings to Triple-A, then after 3-4 more rounds, change them to Double-A, and so on and so forth. While you won't suddenly see big-time MLB prospects, you will be able to differentiate between the remaining players. At least for me, that makes it feel like if I find a guy with high minor league potential and good work ethic, maybe there's a chance he'll exceed those expectations and make it to the big leagues.

I started doing that as well, although I generally just use the Florida State League throughout the draft. It seems to expose holes in a player's game...obviously depending on other tools those holes may or may not be acceptable. I've only drafted this way for a few seasons, so I'm still evaluating it as a tool. Generally, I draft until the 2 stars are gone.

It seemed that in 2014, excellent relief prospects would usually be available at the end of the 1st round. In 2015, that doesn't always seem to be the case.

[brewertoby]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Once you get past the first 3-4 rounds, change your relative ratings to Triple-A, then after 3-4 more rounds, change them to Double-A, and so on and so forth. While you won't suddenly see big-time MLB prospects, you will be able to differentiate between the remaining players. At least for me, that makes it feel like if I find a guy with high minor league potential and good work ethic, maybe there's a chance he'll exceed those expectations and make it to the big leagues.

This is an awesome idea and I want to try it out. How is it done?

[aquapong]

So an update to my evaluation of my draft strategy. For roughly the last 5 drafts, I've been changing the ratings to High A to find holes in a player's game. I've gotten lured into drafting a bunch of college position players in those years. To this point, I'm stacking up AAAA/bench position players like cordwood. I haven't gotten a single clear starting player yet.

This season, I switched to taking mainly high upside high schoolers, so we'll see how that goes.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by aquapong

So an update to my evaluation of my draft strategy. For roughly the last 5 drafts, I've been changing the ratings to High A to find holes in a player's game. I've gotten lured into drafting a bunch of college position players in those years. To this point, I'm stacking up AAAA/bench position players like cordwood. I haven't gotten a single clear starting player yet.

This season, I switched to taking mainly high upside high schoolers, so we'll see how that goes.

seems realistic. I'd rather take a high schooler too

[waltwa]

Maybe I missed this point but does changing the evaluation method discussed after 2 or 3 rds work in online leagues as well.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by waltwa

Maybe I missed this point but does changing the evaluation method discussed after 2 or 3 rds work in online leagues as well.

Only if your league has it enabled