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04-30-2014, 01:13 PM | #41 | ||
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04-30-2014, 01:21 PM | #42 | ||
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04-30-2014, 01:28 PM | #43 | |
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Go on Baseball Ref, pick a random team, then go through each of their drafts for a 10-20 year period. You'll find that many of their drafts yielded no genuine long-term MLB caliber players who ended up putting up more than 2-3 WAR in their entire careers. You'll find a few drafts where there were a couple strong MLB players, a draft or two where a team gets a couple genuine stars. But those are more rare than the drafts where a team essentially gets nothing other than AAAA or MLB backup type players. Last edited by Lukas Berger; 04-30-2014 at 01:51 PM. |
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04-30-2014, 01:38 PM | #44 | ||||
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On the other hand, if those differentiations are that valuable and able to be separated out, show them to me in the star ratings. I dunno ... maybe the world would be okay with 10-star gradients rather than 5. Got me. *shurg* |
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04-30-2014, 01:41 PM | #45 | |
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Don't even try to tell me what my opinion is. To me this will always be a huge mistake.
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04-30-2014, 01:41 PM | #46 | |
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35 years and 2 stars and 6 productive players? What is being suggested almost makes that the expected haul of one, MAYBE two drafts. I'm by no means suggesting it is perfect, just that people tend to overestimate how many stars there are in a given draft along with players with the talent to even make the majors.
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04-30-2014, 01:46 PM | #47 | |
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1994 - No genuine MLB players. Three AAAA type guys with the best putting up 3.2 career WAR. 1995 - Two strong MLB regulars and borderline stars, Erstad and Washburn. Nothing else. 1996 - One solid MLB RP in Scott Schoenweis, 3.3 career WAR. Nothing else. 1997 - One borderline superstar in Troy Glaus. One solid MLB average to slightly better pitcher in Scott Shields. A AAAA type guy in Watt Wise. 1998 - One decent MLB player in Bobby Crosby and his 5.4 career WAR. He didn't sign as a 38th round pick though. So the Angels got no one with positive career WAR from this draft. 1999 - One good MLB pitcher and in John Lackey. Also career backup Alfredo Amezaga and his 3.2 career WAR. 2000 - Two strong unsigned picks in Aaron Hill and David Murphy. Of signed players there's a strong MLB regular in Mike Napoli and a good closer in Bobby Jenks. Nothing else. 2001 - Two long lived MLB backup types in Casey Kotchman (7.5 WAR) and Jeff Mathis (2.1). Also AAAA pitcher Rich Hill who went unsigned. 2002 - Strong regulars Howie Kendrick (23.3 WAR) and Joe Saunders (9.6). Nothing else. 2003 - Solid utility guy Sean Rodriguez (8.0), all time bust Brandon Wood and unsigned Brandon Morrow. 2004 - Star Jared Weaver and solid regular Mark Trumbo. Nothing else. 2005 - Only Peter Bourjos though unsigned picks included Buster Posey and Chris Davis. 2006 - Nothing really. Hank Conger (2.0) and Jordan Walden (2.4). 2007 - Unsigned Matt Harvey and nothing else. Obviously if you go ahead a couple years you get Trout, but I stopped at a point where most of the guys from a given draft have been fully developed. Anyhow you get the idea from that. This was a solid team during nearly the whole covered time period and they never got more than two genuine MLB players in a given draft, though there were a couple drafts where those two guys were borderline stars. There were as many drafts that yielded no MLB caliber players as there were that yielded multiple star type players. So to summarize, a 14 year period yields this: Two genuine stars: Glaus and Weaver. Five strong MLB regulars, stars in their best years: Erstad, Washburn, Kendrick, Saunders and Napoli. Several decent MLB players though not regulars or if regulars not long lived: Bourjos, Trumbo, Rodriguez, Kotchman, Jenks, Shields, Mathis and Schoenweis. So 14 years yields 13 genuine MLB players, this during a period that the Angels were considered to be premier drafters and developers of talent and regularly had highly ranked farm systems. Last edited by Lukas Berger; 04-30-2014 at 02:12 PM. |
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04-30-2014, 01:53 PM | #48 | |
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04-30-2014, 01:55 PM | #49 |
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Great discussion going on here. Enjoying it immensely.
However, two things are jumping out to me (and this is just my opinion). First, I think too much emphasis is being placed on the star ratings. To me, stars are nice to differentiate between someone with superstar potential and someone without superstar potential. But to get to the real differences between players, I think you need to look at specific ratings. That's where the nuances can be found that lukasberger speaks of. Secondly, I think wanting to be able to draft two players who are three- to five-star potential is not realistic. In my experiences with OOTP -- I play mainly MLB quickstarts and have been doing so religiously for four years -- a three-star player is a borderline All-Star. In other words, if he has 10 years as a starter, he's probably going to make the All-Star Game three to five times. That's a draft stud. Asking for there to be approximately 60-65 of that type of prospect in each draft is too many. I understand some people are ok with a fairly high percentage of those 62 players being busts who don't reach that level of talent, but there has never been an MLB Draft in which the first two rounds were mostly filled with potential All-Stars. Personally, I enjoyed the pre-OOTP14 drafts because of the large amount highly rated draft prospects, but quickly became annoyed when their ratings would tank halfway through their first minor league season. In the new system, it's disheartening to see all one-star potential players left after the first 20-25 picks, but I find the long-term results more rewarding. I feel like I'm getting a true prospect in the first round, not a "flip of the coin" prospect who could flame out immediately. And I get a big thrill out of a guy who's drafted after the fifth round and ends up contributing in the majors. Just my (very long) two cents. |
04-30-2014, 02:00 PM | #50 | |
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In my days as a beta I spent weeks and months digging through such draft lists. I did a crapton of the early work on looking at yield. I think you are mis-characterizing the yields of draft classes. Every year there are 30 teams that draft players. Last year 230 players made their debut in the majors (almost 8/team). This year (less than a month into the season), 41 players have made their debutes (already 1.3/team). These new players come from someplace. Not all of them stick, but all of them are deemed worthy enough to try. 137 guys posted 2+ WAR last year. That's only 4.5 per team. So, yes, a 2 WAR is pretty good. But that happens every year. With career lengths factored in, I don't think it's too far-fetched to say that an "average" team draft results in two guys every year who make a significantly positive contribution to a major league baseball team. Some are only 1.5 WAR, but that's a significant achievement...and if they can keep that up, they will have a nice little career as a utility guy or a lefty out of the pen or whatever. You're telling OOTP users that they just need to look at the game more appropriately. Perhaps it would be just as useful if the team looked at player and performance quality more appropriately, also ... and the two meet in the middle. |
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04-30-2014, 02:04 PM | #51 | |
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04-30-2014, 02:05 PM | #52 |
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A 2-3 WAR guy for a career is not a good player. I'm talking career, not a single season.
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04-30-2014, 02:06 PM | #53 | |
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We know from books like Moneyball and whatnot that GMs take the draft very seriously and have deep draft boards and definitely have specific guys they want to take even deep in the draft, but I don't get that feeling in an OOTP draft. I feel completely powerless, like my decisions in that regard are meaningless and random. |
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04-30-2014, 02:06 PM | #54 | |
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I also suggest that you may only be looking at guys who actually yielded to Detroit's team. This would "miss" a guy like John Smoltz, who was moved from Detroit's system to Atlanta before he became a Hall of Famer. To get this design right, the game needs to look at the whole of baseball. Not one team. |
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04-30-2014, 02:06 PM | #55 |
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To be honest, I haven't used star ratings in several versions. I use the 20-80 scale pretty much exclusively now, I think I have one league that I rarely play that uses the 2-8.
I will setup a test run possibly because pretty much every one of my tests but one large one on 15 has been with historicals or feeders. The leagues I had last year with generated draft classes (non-feeders) I was generally very pleased with. The great thing is that we do have modifiers. As a base, I am very pleased with the system in general while also being very pleased that we have the functionality to change things!
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04-30-2014, 02:09 PM | #56 | |
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04-30-2014, 02:10 PM | #57 | ||
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Look at the Angels list above, taken from a period when they were a top team and considered elite at drafting and development. I could have cherry picked my Mets or the Tigers or Royals from that same time period and you'd see some really awful drafts, year after year. The Angels were actually killing it in those years and they only got 13 MLB regulars in 14 years. |
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04-30-2014, 02:11 PM | #58 | |
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04-30-2014, 02:12 PM | #59 |
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I knew what you meant, they definitely got sidetracked. (No offense intended, of course, you guys just missed that he meant career.)
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04-30-2014, 02:14 PM | #60 |
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Yes, thank you. Pretty darn nearly half the elite players in MLB come from the July 2nd IFA signings or other leagues.
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