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Old 05-17-2014, 02:43 PM   #41
The Wolf
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You position on Fielding Independent Pitching - which is that it is somehow fielding dependent - is not only wrong, it's stupid.

And this isn't a discussion, it's you spouting nonsense.
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Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 05-17-2014, 02:50 PM   #42
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You position on Fielding Independent Pitching - which is that it is somehow fielding dependent - is not only wrong, it's stupid.

And this isn't a discussion, it's you spouting nonsense.

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Old 05-17-2014, 02:57 PM   #43
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You position on Fielding Independent Pitching - which is that it is somehow fielding dependent - is not only wrong, it's stupid.

And this isn't a discussion, it's you spouting nonsense.
Reliever A gives up a fly ball which is caught after a spectacular diving catch by his center fielder. He then walks a guy and strikes out the next two before getting hooked. His FIP is (3-4)/1 + 3.2 = 2.2.

Reliever B gives up a fly ball which falls in the gap for a hit. He then walks a guy and strikes out the next two before getting hooked. His FIP is (3-4)/(2/3) + 3.2 = 1.7.

Please tell me what Reliever B did better than Reliever A.
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Old 05-17-2014, 02:58 PM   #44
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Relax, I'm not going to be arguing with him. He's way too far wrong to even bother arguing with.
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Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 05-17-2014, 03:48 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by mgoetze View Post
Reliever A gives up a fly ball which is caught after a spectacular diving catch by his center fielder. He then walks a guy and strikes out the next two before getting hooked. His FIP is (3-4)/1 + 3.2 = 2.2.

Reliever B gives up a fly ball which falls in the gap for a hit. He then walks a guy and strikes out the next two before getting hooked. His FIP is (3-4)/(2/3) + 3.2 = 1.7.

Please tell me what Reliever B did better than Reliever A.
LOL from Fangraphs
FIP | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

FIP does a better job of predicting the future than measuring the present, as there can be a lot of fluctuation in small samples. It is less effective in describing a pitcher’s single game performance and is more appropriate in a season’s worth of innings.
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Old 05-17-2014, 04:01 PM   #46
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LOL from Fangraphs
FIP | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

FIP does a better job of predicting the future than measuring the present, as there can be a lot of fluctuation in small samples. It is less effective in describing a pitcher’s single game performance and is more appropriate in a season’s worth of innings.
So you expect me to construct a season-long example to demonstrate the point or what? Yes, the BABIP-induced variations will be smaller in a larger sample. That doesn't mean they don't exist! The fact of the matter is that the two pitchers in my example had exactly the same pitching performance and got a different FIP for it based solely on the fielding behind them. In a full season the difference will be more like 0.05 points of FIP than 0.50. But the claim I'm contradicting here is that the effect of fielding is exactly "ZERO".

Of course in a mere season's worth of innings your FIP is going to be massively affected by HR/FB variance anyway. I can accept that the effect of fielding might be "negligible". But not that it's "ZERO".
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Old 05-18-2014, 12:28 AM   #47
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Ignore the ravings.
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Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 05-18-2014, 09:58 AM   #48
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So you expect me to construct a season-long example to demonstrate the point or what? Yes, the BABIP-induced variations will be smaller in a larger sample. That doesn't mean they don't exist! The fact of the matter is that the two pitchers in my example had exactly the same pitching performance and got a different FIP for it based solely on the fielding behind them. In a full season the difference will be more like 0.05 points of FIP than 0.50. But the claim I'm contradicting here is that the effect of fielding is exactly "ZERO".

Of course in a mere season's worth of innings your FIP is going to be massively affected by HR/FB variance anyway. I can accept that the effect of fielding might be "negligible". But not that it's "ZERO".
Those are some good points, which is why I've always wondered why xFIP isn't in the game. It wouldn't alleviate the small variances caused by fielding, but it would alleviate the much larger variances caused by homerun/flyball percentages.
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Old 05-18-2014, 10:20 AM   #49
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Those are some good points, which is why I've always wondered why xFIP isn't in the game. It wouldn't alleviate the small variances caused by fielding, but it would alleviate the much larger variances caused by homerun/flyball percentages.
Yup, I was doing xFIP in my spreadsheet before I started doing SIERA.
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Old 05-18-2014, 11:44 AM   #50
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Those are some good points, which is why I've always wondered why xFIP isn't in the game. It wouldn't alleviate the small variances caused by fielding, but it would alleviate the much larger variances caused by homerun/flyball percentages.
xFIP (xFIP = ((13*(Flyballs * League-average HR/FB rate))+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant), which another defense-independent pitching metric, is slightly better than FIP as a predictive model (see Tool: Basically Every Pitching Stat Correlation | FanGraphs Baseball) and would be a useful addition to the game.
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Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

Five thousand thanks for a non-modder? I never thought I'd see the day. Thank you for your support.
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