Why play a lower rated player over a higher rated one?

BIGSIX · 02-27-2020, 09:44 AM

I am trying to understand why anyone would choose to play a lower rated player over a higher rated player at the same position.

Lets say that, all other intangibles being about even, you have a 2nd baseman who has an overall rating of 65 with a contact rating of 60. He is in a statistical slump and hitting only .220. You have another player who has an overall rating of 50 with a contact rating of 45 and he is hot ( or statistically lucky) and is hitting .300. (Assuming power ratings, defense and speed ratings are equal between the two)

In real life, I as manager would put my hot hitting guy in the lineup and perhaps send my low hitter to the bench or the minors. In the game, however, it seems only logical to keep sending my 65 rated player out there no matter what because statistically it is only a matter of time before the numbers go his way and the lower rated player goes back down to what is normal for him.

I watch the you tube streams, however, and I see veteran OOTP players treat these kinds of differences as “real” life differences in the two players and they make the position switch between them.

QUESTION: Is this because the ratings are not 100 percent accurate? (I set my scouting accuracy to “Normal”) And / Or is it because under the hood of the game there is some influence to the players level of play due to current statistical poor results. In other words if a player is hitting poorly his poor play influences his future play to some degree despite his current high ratings.

Is there some setting in the game that you can turn on to cause more variability to player results in relationship to his ratings? I would love this to be so. I do not like to just be able to look at a player's rating and make all my decisions to play him or another player based upon the ratings. This takes the fun out of managing the team. Makes you feel “dumb” for playing a lesser rated player over a higher rated player.

Brad K · 02-27-2020, 08:14 PM

Some people playing OOTP believe in streaks. See thread on starting pitchers having a bad inning for more info.

BIGSIX · 02-28-2020, 08:43 AM

After reviewing some other threads it looks like there are a couple of ways to introduce some randomness or difference between player performance and their ratings.

1) Set the scouting level to poor instead of normal or 100% accurate. It would appear that then you may find that the player with the 70% contact rating is not as good as the player with a 60% contact rating because the scouts have gotten it wrong. Therefore you as a smart manager would play the lower rated guy.

2) Set the TCR (Talent Change Randomness) to a higher number. Correct me if I am wrong but if you set the TCR to zero (the default is 100) then the players (statistically) should perform very closely to their ratings. If a 70% contact rated player should hit 300 he likely hit 290 to 310 (I'm pulling these numbers out of a hat for an example). If the TCR is set to 100 he may hit 275 to 325. If the TCR is set to 200 he may hit 210 to 350.

Please correct me if I am off base (since we are talking baseball here) on any of these assumptions.

The TCR adjustment still does not seem the best solution to me for giving me a reason to play my 70 rated player over my 50 rated player. The 70 rated player still would be MORE likely to perform better over the long haul.

It seems it would be better to have less accuracy given to the scouts. In that case I would need to pay more attention to the performance of my players to judge who to play.

Another method I suppose would be to turn off most if not all of the ratings that show up on the player profiles.

Please advise what you guys think and how you guys like to play it.

Brad K · 02-28-2020, 09:58 PM

Presumably with ratings set to be somewhat inaccurate forcing a degree of reliance upon current and past performance, both AI managers and human managers would be equally handicapped by sometimes conflicting inputs. However introducing the fog of war so to speak makes for a situation more closely following real life. So it depends whether you value real life more or a situation where each team is putting their truly best players on the field.

But also, what's real life? We have to assume the Orioles are relying upon high ratings rather than performance in order to keep Chris Davis in the lineup.

BIGSIX · 02-29-2020, 10:32 AM

Good points BK. I did not think that the AI would be effected by my setting scouting accuracy to "very low". I thought that my setting of that condition only effected me. I wonder if that is so or not.

Regarding the Orioles and Davis, VS the OOTP game: He is flesh and blood whereas my OOTP players are basically statistical robots. Davis with his high ratings may never preform up to them in the future. My robots may have a statistical slump but over a 1000 rolls of the dice the odds will be in their favor.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Brad K · 02-29-2020, 08:30 PM

Also decades ago the Twins stuck with former MVP Zoilo Versailles as their leadoff hitter all season in a year when he hit 199.

BIGSIX · 02-29-2020, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

Also decades ago the Twins stuck with former MVP Zoilo Versailles as their leadoff hitter all season in a year when he hit 199.

They should have played Robot Zoilo. The law of averages would have prevailed and better results obtained.

02-27-2020, 09:44 AM	#1
BIGSIX Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 33	Why play a lower rated player over a higher rated one? I am trying to understand why anyone would choose to play a lower rated player over a higher rated player at the same position. Lets say that, all other intangibles being about even, you have a 2nd baseman who has an overall rating of 65 with a contact rating of 60. He is in a statistical slump and hitting only .220. You have another player who has an overall rating of 50 with a contact rating of 45 and he is hot ( or statistically lucky) and is hitting .300. (Assuming power ratings, defense and speed ratings are equal between the two) In real life, I as manager would put my hot hitting guy in the lineup and perhaps send my low hitter to the bench or the minors. In the game, however, it seems only logical to keep sending my 65 rated player out there no matter what because statistically it is only a matter of time before the numbers go his way and the lower rated player goes back down to what is normal for him. I watch the you tube streams, however, and I see veteran OOTP players treat these kinds of differences as “real” life differences in the two players and they make the position switch between them. QUESTION: Is this because the ratings are not 100 percent accurate? (I set my scouting accuracy to “Normal”) And / Or is it because under the hood of the game there is some influence to the players level of play due to current statistical poor results. In other words if a player is hitting poorly his poor play influences his future play to some degree despite his current high ratings. Is there some setting in the game that you can turn on to cause more variability to player results in relationship to his ratings? I would love this to be so. I do not like to just be able to look at a player's rating and make all my decisions to play him or another player based upon the ratings. This takes the fun out of managing the team. Makes you feel “dumb” for playing a lesser rated player over a higher rated player.

02-27-2020, 08:14 PM	#2
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 5,422	Some people playing OOTP believe in streaks. See thread on starting pitchers having a bad inning for more info.

02-28-2020, 08:43 AM	#3
BIGSIX Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 33	After reviewing some other threads it looks like there are a couple of ways to introduce some randomness or difference between player performance and their ratings. 1) Set the scouting level to poor instead of normal or 100% accurate. It would appear that then you may find that the player with the 70% contact rating is not as good as the player with a 60% contact rating because the scouts have gotten it wrong. Therefore you as a smart manager would play the lower rated guy. 2) Set the TCR (Talent Change Randomness) to a higher number. Correct me if I am wrong but if you set the TCR to zero (the default is 100) then the players (statistically) should perform very closely to their ratings. If a 70% contact rated player should hit 300 he likely hit 290 to 310 (I'm pulling these numbers out of a hat for an example). If the TCR is set to 100 he may hit 275 to 325. If the TCR is set to 200 he may hit 210 to 350. Please correct me if I am off base (since we are talking baseball here) on any of these assumptions. The TCR adjustment still does not seem the best solution to me for giving me a reason to play my 70 rated player over my 50 rated player. The 70 rated player still would be MORE likely to perform better over the long haul. It seems it would be better to have less accuracy given to the scouts. In that case I would need to pay more attention to the performance of my players to judge who to play. Another method I suppose would be to turn off most if not all of the ratings that show up on the player profiles. Please advise what you guys think and how you guys like to play it.

02-28-2020, 09:58 PM	#4
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 5,422	Presumably with ratings set to be somewhat inaccurate forcing a degree of reliance upon current and past performance, both AI managers and human managers would be equally handicapped by sometimes conflicting inputs. However introducing the fog of war so to speak makes for a situation more closely following real life. So it depends whether you value real life more or a situation where each team is putting their truly best players on the field. But also, what's real life? We have to assume the Orioles are relying upon high ratings rather than performance in order to keep Chris Davis in the lineup.

02-29-2020, 10:32 AM	#5
BIGSIX Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 33	Good points BK. I did not think that the AI would be effected by my setting scouting accuracy to "very low". I thought that my setting of that condition only effected me. I wonder if that is so or not. Regarding the Orioles and Davis, VS the OOTP game: He is flesh and blood whereas my OOTP players are basically statistical robots. Davis with his high ratings may never preform up to them in the future. My robots may have a statistical slump but over a 1000 rolls of the dice the odds will be in their favor. Thanks for your thoughts.

02-29-2020, 08:30 PM	#6
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 5,422	Also decades ago the Twins stuck with former MVP Zoilo Versailles as their leadoff hitter all season in a year when he hit 199.