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Old 07-22-2011, 01:09 PM   #1
revcarte
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Disappointing Stats from my experience

I have hesitated about writing this article, realizing that it will make diehard ootp fans angry but truth is truth and I feel compelled to share my experiences that has left me wondering about the statistical integrity of the game.

First I tried playing the 65 Dodgers. They were below average and Sandy Koufax, who had his greatest season in 65, was very mediocre at best. Keep in mind that this is the team that won it all in 65.
Then I tried the 68 Tigers but they were worse than mediocre and even Denny McLain, who won 31 games in 68, had a losing record and frequently got pounded.
So I tried the 68 Cardinals, again manually playing all of my team's games. After playing a huge part of their season they are in 4th place, Bob Gibson who was the Cy Young Winner that year, is 3-7, and the team in first place is the Braves who were a .500 club that year.
So now I try the 76 Reds. We all know they were a powerhouse that year and won their division by something like 20 games. The results have been terrible. Eastwick, their great closer, is 0-2 with 3 blown saves so far and his era is over 7. Johnny Bench is 1-11 in gunning down base stealers (Joe Ferguson of the Dodgers is 5-5). Morgan, Concepcion, and Rose make error after error as though they could not field at all. One example: Concepcion makes an error on one play. Morgan makes an error on the next play. And then Pat Zachry balks the runner in from third. Amazing! George Foster who led the league in HR's with over 50 that year has one HR in 28 games.
I could go on but I think anyone who looks at this objectively could see why I have serous doubts about the accuracy of the game.
NOTE: if you let the computer autoplay the games it seems to generate results that one could expect. So people who find fun in allowing the game to simply generate a full season might not experience what I have experienced.
Again, my intent is not to offend or anger anyone. I still plan to play the game. It is just that my personal experience leaves much to be desired concerning statistical accuracy.
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Old 07-22-2011, 01:50 PM   #2
redsfan17
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I think the problem that you are having is that most of your sim baseball background comes from stat replay, am I right? I am not trying to flame you or say your opinion is wrong, because I too have experienced these same issues. The problem is this game isn't supposed to be a exact replay, it is full of variables that make the game interesting. If the season was played out exactly the way in did for example 1976, why would you want to play the season in the first place? Plus, there is no possible way to make the same decisions that Ole Sparky did during the Big Red Machine years. The game is just a what if scenario for fans to see if they can get the same results as their favorite team or even change their fortunes? In one game, Pete Rose and Johnny Bench suffered career-ending injuries within two years time? Unrealistic, yes, but the fun is the mad scramble I had to do to replace to key cogs in that machine. I know that it is frustrating to see players perform below their norm, but that's half the fun.
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Old 07-22-2011, 02:30 PM   #3
revcarte
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thanks.

thanks for the response. I just thought that if the players were based on that particular season's performance then you could expect that the players would perform that way.
I have been playing computer baseball games since 1985 believe it or not. Some games I cannot remember the names. I played Pursue the Pennant before they changed the name to Diamond Mind. Been playing Strat O Matic for many, many years. I played the Strat board game since 1967. So I am not a newcomer to baseball games. I guess I thought I would experience the fun of seeing the 76 Reds roll up the wins like they did in real life.
Anyway, I appreciate the response and your perspective.
I am not trying to be negative about the game. I have really, really tried to "love" this game because I appreciate the fact that they have created a version for the iphone and ipad.
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Old 07-22-2011, 02:42 PM   #4
Sebastian Palkowski
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I'm more then happy to discuss the game and baseball (history) in general but whatever I post, you don't accept it, so it is a lose - lose situation for me.

With Joe Morgan, you complained about his defense ratings. I showed you the stats that explain his ratings but you continue to write about his GG and how you remember him as a great career defense player.

Again, (i)OOTP is not a strict replay game. It sets a framework (the season you play) and you can further specialize it (switch off trades and injuries) but still, you will never ever get the exact same results as in reality. A good player should be good most of the time but he can have a off-year (or injury), a good team will most likely play good in your sim but again, injuries, trades or just plain (bad) luck can change the actual sim you run.

Another thing that is important: don't make judgments based on one inning or just a few games. That is just not possible in OOTP or reality (thats why they play 162 games).

Answer me honestly: if I told you before the season, that the 2011 Red Sox would start the year 0-6 and 2-10, would you believed me? And after the 2-10 record, that they be in 1. place at the Allstar-Break? Crazy things happen in baseball, thats half the fun.

You say that you get bad results by playing out your games but simming would work good. Maybe you let pitcher stay to long in the game or you don't give off-days to players? Tired players will perform bad over time (both during a game and over a season).

Just trying to help.
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Old 07-22-2011, 03:32 PM   #5
revcarte
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thanks

Thanks for the response. Since you brought up Morgan again, I guess I fail to understand how every other major game company rated him with the top rating for 1976 and you rated him below average. I guess you use different means to rate players. I was not going to bring him up again but you did.
But don't consider it a lose-lose situation because I do try to digest everything you say. I guess IOOTP is just not what I have become used to over the years. But I will try to keep my opinions and results to myself from now on. And I will try to continue to play and learn to enjoy the game I guess.
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Old 07-22-2011, 04:04 PM   #6
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I don't think that anyone said that your viewpoints were wrong or not needed. I think what palli was saying is you aren't accepting his reasons for why the game works the way it does and the way the rate players. I also wasn't implying that you had no baseball sim experience, just that what experience you have is coming from stat replays where everything 9 times out of 10 goes the way it did in real life. I too have played those types of games, and enjoy that experience too. You have to accept iOOTP for what it is: a fun sim that you can play on the go and play fictional leagues and create your own teams, historical where you try to change the history of you team, and 2011 where you take today's players and create history going forward. If you stop wanting the players and teams to act exactly like their real life counterparts and just have fun, I think you would enjoy this game much more. I know I do. And being a bit of a homer for my Reds, think that the ratings on some of our current players are off, but given the way they are playing maybe the aren't
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Old 07-22-2011, 05:58 PM   #7
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Let me add something. I too played Strat for many years and loved the game. However a few points you need to remember about Strat. If you played the basic or advanced game they were very different. For example Joe Morgan was a 1 rated 2nd baseman and in the basic game he is rated the best however only as a 1-4 scale. If you play the advanced game the 1 rating is only his range and his error rating was different. As far as pitching goes I remember one year I put together an awesome team all around. I won 75% of my games. I had a 4 man rotation and all 4 pitchers were about the same. The 3 righties were 20 game winners and the lefty was under .500. This was not accurate but it always seemed lefty starters got hit more than righties in Strat.
My point is any replay will yield different and sometime not accurate results but if tried time and time again will yield results based on the stats.
Overall iOOTP is a very good game with many variables in play and changing any 1 variable will then change the outcome but after numerous tries will be accurate over time.
Besides if everything always came out exactly as past history why play at all just look it up in the history books.


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Old 07-22-2011, 07:25 PM   #8
revcarte
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Thanks.

Thanks. Points taken. I am appreciative of all the feedback. I guess when Johnny Bench was 1/11 in throwing out base stealers and I saw that Joe Ferguson of the Dodgers was 5/5 I just felt compelled to air my opinions. I think also the fact that George Foster had only hit 1 HR prompted me to write. But I will try to keep an open mind about the game and will try to enjoy it.
I am having a hard time understanding it but will continue to make an effort. As said before, I AM grateful to have a game such as this on Iphone and Ipad.
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Old 07-22-2011, 09:24 PM   #9
tanda
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Rev,

Foster did not hit 50 hrs in 1976. He hit 29. In 1977, he hit 52. Also, the Reds won by 20 in '75 not '76.

As to Morgan, other game companies were rating him on reputation. That defensive reputation is not confirmed by advanced metrics. Those metrics could be wrong in his case, but are generally fairly accurate. iOOTP rates based on stats, including well regarded advanced metrics. Therefore, it is a consistent and objective system, although subject to any errors in the underlying stats.

As to your other comments, Koufax won the pitcher of the year with the pitching triple crown in my '65 replay and Gibson had a sub 2.00 ERA in my '68 replay.

Most importantly, even 600-700 plate appearances is not nearly long enough to get into the long run. Auto-replay the same season several times with default settings and you will see variance in final stats in all sims, not just iOOTP.
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Old 07-22-2011, 09:30 PM   #10
revcarte
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thanks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tanda View Post
Rev,

Foster did not hit 50 hrs in 1976. He hit 29. In 1977, he hit 52. Also, the Reds won by 20 in '75 not '76.

As to Morgan, other game companies were rating him on reputation. That defensive reputation is not confirmed by advanced metrics. Those metrics could be wrong in his case, but are generally fairly accurate. iOOTP rates based on stats, including well regarded advanced metrics. Therefore, it is a consistent and objective system, although subject to any errors in the underlying stats.

As to your other comments, Koufax won the pitcher of the year with the pitching triple crown in my '65 replay and Gibson had a sub 2.00 ERA in my '68 replay.

Most importantly, even 600-700 plate appearances is not nearly long enough to get into the long run. Auto-replay the same season several times with default settings and you will see variance in final stats in all sims, not just iOOTP.
Thanks. just wondering....did you manually play your 65 and 68 replays with one team or did you let the computer sim the entire season??
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Old 07-22-2011, 10:03 PM   #11
JayWigley
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If anyone has Diamond Mind Baseball and the 1976 season disk, could you post the fielding ratings that Joe Morgan got that season? Diamond Mind is the only other sim whose ratings I'd take seriously enough to compare with.
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Old 07-22-2011, 11:03 PM   #12
revcarte
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Diamond Mind

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Originally Posted by JayWigley View Post
If anyone has Diamond Mind Baseball and the 1976 season disk, could you post the fielding ratings that Joe Morgan got that season? Diamond Mind is the only other sim whose ratings I'd take seriously enough to compare with.
Sorry. I have the game and season disks somewhere but I quit playing Diamond Mind a couple of years back when they sold out to another company and the new company said they were going to quit supporting the computer version of the game in lieu of the online gaming experience. They later reversed course but I had already left them behind and was by that time playing Strat full time. I cannot prove it or even swear to it but I believe Morgan had the highest rating on Diamond Mind in 75 and 76. Wish I could prove it. Maybe I can find the disks and re-load it.
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Old 07-23-2011, 01:25 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JayWigley View Post
If anyone has Diamond Mind Baseball and the 1976 season disk, could you post the fielding ratings that Joe Morgan got that season? Diamond Mind is the only other sim whose ratings I'd take seriously enough to compare with.
Why look at other games when you can look at the stats? His dWAR in '76 was .1. That puts his defense below average. He won his Gold Glove and ratings in other games on reputation. The stats tell a different story.

I'd like to compare it to Jeter, because it feels similar. Somehow his -.9 dWAR in 2010 earned him an average defensive rating in OOTP and his well below average RF earned him above average range.
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Old 07-23-2011, 11:23 AM   #14
RandyMyers
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There are some things in Baseball that you can rate using Stats, and others you can not. It has been proven over and over and over and over and over that metrics for rating defense just do not work. Games that use pure stat metrics never seem to have their players perform and feel like the real player.

There are so many variables; the range of the other players, pitching staffs, opposing batters do in deed try to "hit it where they ain't" and therefore tend to hit away from the "great fielders".

When a game rates players like Omar Viscal and Joe Morgan as average to below average defensive players then there is something wrong in their methodology.

I do not want a player and a team to duplicate what they did in the year I am replaying, however I do want the players to have the same abilities. All the other factors will then apply. If Don Mattingly gets a below average rating then anything else the game rates is out the window. Bottom line.

Now as far as OOTP is concerned; they offer a great value, but they are not designed around replays. If you like career and fictitious play (and I emphasis fictitious) they they are great. If you want accurately rated players who perform close to the real player they represent then SOM is in a class by itself. Action PC! is very good, but they tend towards the stats based rating which has recently really pulled their accuracy value down for me.

Action and OOTP have by far the best customer service on the planet but OOTP hurt themselves this year by having their bread and butter product take a back seat to their new i product. Bad decision and it is now (as it should) biting Markus in the tush. SOM is by far the best game play and accurate feeling replays. They are also very expensive, but, they are the best representation of the actual players and teams since they do put so much more effort in ratings (and therefore can justify their high price).

Bottom line is if a company believes that Joe Morgan, Don Mattingly, Omar Viscal deserve average ratings they they have lost ALL validity in my opinion. I tend to believe their piers and the sports writers that follow they day in and day out and say these may be the best defensive players at their positions ever.

Last edited by RandyMyers; 07-23-2011 at 11:56 AM.
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Old 07-23-2011, 11:35 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandyMyers View Post
...Action and OOTP have by far the best customer service on the planet but OOTP hurt themselves this year by having their bread and butter product take a back seat to their new i product. Bad decision and it is now (as it should) biting Markus in the tush.
I am new to ioopt and i have not played oopt so i am in the dark as to how this is hurting them?
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Old 07-23-2011, 11:53 AM   #16
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I am new to ioopt and i have not played oopt so i am in the dark as to how this is hurting them?
There is a strong number of people on the OOTP12 forums that feel that OOTP12 was delayed significantly because of iOOTP development and OOTP12 was overpromised and under-developed. So, they feel that Markus hurt the OOTP franchise by not focusing on the development of his core pc/Mac product.

I haven't had a lot of time to play the PC version, but from my initial glance it seems like the game went light years ahead of OOTP10 (the last OOTP pc game I've purchased.) I have had a blast playing both iOOTP and OOTP12 games and couldn't be happier with the products.

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Old 07-23-2011, 12:04 PM   #17
RandyMyers
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While every other baseball simulation have their new product out by opening day, when the urge and impulse for a new baseball game is highest, version 12 did not come out until mid season. Also there have already been a stream of patches (obviously there are huge amount of issues).

I purchased both version 11 and 12, but have hardly played either. OOTP is really not designed with replaying a single season in mind. If I ever have the hankering to play a totally fictitious baseball league then for sure OOTP will be the one.

the iOOTP product delayed and took away from the desktop product. I and many others feel that he deserted or made version 12 take a back seat to the i product. That would be like Ford saying that we want to make a motorcycle this year and really move into that product line, so we are not going to release a new pickup truck until next year. Bad move....
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Old 07-23-2011, 12:26 PM   #18
tanda
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Randy,

I actually put little stock in the opinions of players and many sports writers.

Many of them still think fielding percentage and batting average are comprehensive stats.
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Old 07-23-2011, 12:42 PM   #19
revcarte
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Amen

Quote:
Originally Posted by RandyMyers View Post
There are some things in Baseball that you can rate using Stats, and others you can not. It has been proven over and over and over and over and over that metrics for rating defense just do not work. Games that use pure stat metrics never seem to have their players perform and feel like the real player.

There are so many variables; the range of the other players, pitching staffs, opposing batters do in deed try to "hit it where they ain't" and therefore tend to hit away from the "great fielders".

When a game rates players like Omar Viscal and Joe Morgan as average to below average defensive players then there is something wrong in their methodology.

I do not want a player and a team to duplicate what they did in the year I am replaying, however I do want the players to have the same abilities. All the other factors will then apply. If Don Mattingly gets a below average rating then anything else the game rates is out the window. Bottom line.

Now as far as OOTP is concerned; they offer a great value, but they are not designed around replays. If you like career and fictitious play (and I emphasis fictitious) they they are great. If you want accurately rated players who perform close to the real player they represent then SOM is in a class by itself. Action PC! is very good, but they tend towards the stats based rating which has recently really pulled their accuracy value down for me.

Action and OOTP have by far the best customer service on the planet but OOTP hurt themselves this year by having their bread and butter product take a back seat to their new i product. Bad decision and it is now (as it should) biting Markus in the tush. SOM is by far the best game play and accurate feeling replays. They are also very expensive, but, they are the best representation of the actual players and teams since they do put so much more effort in ratings (and therefore can justify their high price).

Bottom line is if a company believes that Joe Morgan, Don Mattingly, Omar Viscal deserve average ratings they they have lost ALL validity in my opinion. I tend to believe their piers and the sports writers that follow they day in and day out and say these may be the best defensive players at their positions ever.
You have perfectly said what I felt but could not articulate in words. Thank you You have made my weekend!!
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Old 07-23-2011, 01:08 PM   #20
RandyMyers
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tanda View Post
Randy,

I actually put little stock in the opinions of players and many sports writers.

Many of them still think fielding percentage and batting average are comprehensive stats.
I don't know... I have been around baseball for a very long time. I have played baseball simulations from about 1967 or so on. I have tried almost every game out there and always try to see the value of the particular product.

When it comes to judging talent and abilities I trust managers, players (present and former), scouts and sports writers a hell of a lot more than I do those that base everything on mathematics and numbers. Not everything, and especially not abilities can be summed up in numbers. There is just too many other factors.

BTW- I say this as a numbers and computer guy. I am a professional software engineer and consider computers to be my passion. I also have a degree in mathematics.

I have written papers in college on "The Art of Pitching", the pitch by pitch contest of batter and pitcher and have publish baseball statistics software. I do not claim to know any more than anyone else, only that I have been a baseball numbers cruncher for a very long time.

I have finally came to the realization that in baseball, even though numbers are wonderful, the recent trend of trying to explain EVERYTHING by pure numbers is just dead wrong. The more I explore the more I realize that one company has it right when they say that numbers when taken along with a tremendous amount of research can give much more accurate feel to how players perform realistically within a simulation environment. It is not pure plain and simply numbers. That methodology is just incorrect.

Last edited by RandyMyers; 07-23-2011 at 01:14 PM.
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