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Old 02-26-2016, 05:01 PM   #1
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123-win team loses to an 84-win team

After taking over a 70-win Cleveland team well into a simmed league of mine which had tons of prospects, I flipped them all and by Year 2 (after winning the WS in Year 1) I had an embarrassment of riches across my roster.

The top six batters and three of the top six pitchers in the National League called Cleveland home, and we went 123-39.

Somebody forgot to tell the Charlotte Ports.

The team that had allowed more regular-season runs than they scored stunned the world, upsetting my super team in six games in the first round of the playoffs.

Some of this was a lack of attention to detail on my part. A crucial Game 2-run was scored when I forgot to set the infield in. A couple relievers had poor outings after not warming up beforehand.

Due in part to my poor managing skills, the Swamp Angels gave up a 5-3 lead in Game 2, a 3-0 lead in Game 5, and, finally, a 4-0 lead in Game 6, to cause heartbreak throughout the city of Cleveland.
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Old 02-26-2016, 05:08 PM   #2
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Old 02-26-2016, 05:15 PM   #3
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Having the best record is practically the kiss of death.
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Old 02-26-2016, 05:36 PM   #4
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you want to see heartbreak...check out my Mets dynasty.
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Old 02-26-2016, 06:30 PM   #5
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Unfortunately this development does NOT surprise this Indians fan who knows the pain all too well...
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Old 02-26-2016, 08:18 PM   #6
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you want to see heartbreak...check out my Mets dynasty.
All too realistic.
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Old 02-26-2016, 11:01 PM   #7
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Oh, Cleveland. You never fail to disappoint.
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Old 02-27-2016, 02:04 AM   #8
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Now I feel better about my 108-win team losing to a 93-win team, at least.
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Old 02-27-2016, 03:52 PM   #9
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having the best probability of winning doesn't gaurantee anything.

next time something like that happens and you think it is anything beside luck, re-run the playoffs 10-20 times. while i wouldn't say this with confidence about a 123 win team, some times a better playoff team can have significantly fewer wins.

there are some differences between regular season success and playoff success. e.g. your 5th pitcher and possibly 4th won't even be starters in the playoffs. it's very possible a team with fewer wins has a better top-3 SPs. your bench is virtually meaningless, except for platoon situations or needing some speed on the basepaths in very select situations. most of the benefits of a good bench are realized during the regular season and not the playoffs. rest is not a problem anymore.

123 wins is no joke. that has to be a solid team top-to-bottom. even taking into consideration that the regular season is different animal than the playoffs. i'm pretty sure your team would win more times than not, if you replayed those playoffs a bunch of times.

if they have a 60% chance of winning each series, that's only a 21.6% chance of winning the WS. .75 * .66 *.6 = 29.7% in that situation which assumes increasing difficulty and a ?great team?. so, if you replay it and they win 1/5 to 1/3 of the time in a large sample, it's a really good team regardless of winning the WS or not. 1 year's playoff is not a good sample size, so anythign should be expected.

this is actually one reason why i limit who gets into my playoffs to the top ~1/3 of teams (4 of 14 teams in each league in my case). i rarely get teams that struggle to maintain a .500 win% in the playoffs, if at all. i'm happy with whomever wins the WS, because they are all worthy teams, regardless of how much good fortune any one team receives.

Last edited by NoOne; 02-27-2016 at 03:55 PM.
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Old 02-27-2016, 07:07 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoOne View Post
having the best probability of winning doesn't gaurantee anything.

next time something like that happens and you think it is anything beside luck, re-run the playoffs 10-20 times. while i wouldn't say this with confidence about a 123 win team, some times a better playoff team can have significantly fewer wins.

there are some differences between regular season success and playoff success. e.g. your 5th pitcher and possibly 4th won't even be starters in the playoffs. it's very possible a team with fewer wins has a better top-3 SPs. your bench is virtually meaningless, except for platoon situations or needing some speed on the basepaths in very select situations. most of the benefits of a good bench are realized during the regular season and not the playoffs. rest is not a problem anymore.

123 wins is no joke. that has to be a solid team top-to-bottom. even taking into consideration that the regular season is different animal than the playoffs. i'm pretty sure your team would win more times than not, if you replayed those playoffs a bunch of times.

if they have a 60% chance of winning each series, that's only a 21.6% chance of winning the WS. .75 * .66 *.6 = 29.7% in that situation which assumes increasing difficulty and a ?great team?. so, if you replay it and they win 1/5 to 1/3 of the time in a large sample, it's a really good team regardless of winning the WS or not. 1 year's playoff is not a good sample size, so anythign should be expected.

this is actually one reason why i limit who gets into my playoffs to the top ~1/3 of teams (4 of 14 teams in each league in my case). i rarely get teams that struggle to maintain a .500 win% in the playoffs, if at all. i'm happy with whomever wins the WS, because they are all worthy teams, regardless of how much good fortune any one team receives.
What would you say makes a play off team a real contender in OOTP?

Am still learning
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Old 02-27-2016, 09:52 PM   #11
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What would you say makes a play off team a real contender in OOTP?

Am still learning
It certainly doesn't help to have a manager like me who is careless and doesn't warm up guys in the bullpen; forgets to set the infield in...
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Old 02-27-2016, 10:03 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoOne View Post
having the best probability of winning doesn't gaurantee anything.

next time something like that happens and you think it is anything beside luck, re-run the playoffs 10-20 times. while i wouldn't say this with confidence about a 123 win team, some times a better playoff team can have significantly fewer wins.

there are some differences between regular season success and playoff success. e.g. your 5th pitcher and possibly 4th won't even be starters in the playoffs. it's very possible a team with fewer wins has a better top-3 SPs. your bench is virtually meaningless, except for platoon situations or needing some speed on the basepaths in very select situations. most of the benefits of a good bench are realized during the regular season and not the playoffs. rest is not a problem anymore.

123 wins is no joke. that has to be a solid team top-to-bottom. even taking into consideration that the regular season is different animal than the playoffs. i'm pretty sure your team would win more times than not, if you replayed those playoffs a bunch of times.

if they have a 60% chance of winning each series, that's only a 21.6% chance of winning the WS. .75 * .66 *.6 = 29.7% in that situation which assumes increasing difficulty and a ?great team?. so, if you replay it and they win 1/5 to 1/3 of the time in a large sample, it's a really good team regardless of winning the WS or not. 1 year's playoff is not a good sample size, so anythign should be expected.

this is actually one reason why i limit who gets into my playoffs to the top ~1/3 of teams (4 of 14 teams in each league in my case). i rarely get teams that struggle to maintain a .500 win% in the playoffs, if at all. i'm happy with whomever wins the WS, because they are all worthy teams, regardless of how much good fortune any one team receives.
I used log5 (assuming the "true talent" of the teams were the same as their records; that may not be true, but given that they overperformed their pythagorean expectation, that seems pretty fair) and a binomial calculator, and there was something like a 5% chance that I would lose this series in less than the full seven games.

There was another time where a team was getting so ridiculous that I ended up having a salary cap established (to put it in perspective, this team had a 5-WAR starter moved to the bullpen because they didn't have room for him in the rotation) won an average of 122 games a year for three years, yet only even made the WS for one year in that stretch. It'll be interesting how often this team wins it all.
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Old 02-27-2016, 10:46 PM   #13
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Having the best record is practically the kiss of death.
Agreed - been playing since v4 and seen far too many seasons of "1 and done" playoff series after dominating the regular season.
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Old 02-29-2016, 02:03 PM   #14
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Agreed - been playing since v4 and seen far too many seasons of "1 and done" playoff series after dominating the regular season.
I think part of that is 120+ win teams likely feature 4-5 elite starters, so every game they are throwing an ace out there, whereas a 90+ win team probably has 2 aces, and then good-but-not-great after that.

So then in the playoffs, it's a lot more ace vs ace - which can go either way.

Basically a probable strength of the dominating team is removed altogether.
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Old 02-29-2016, 02:16 PM   #15
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Agreed - been playing since v4 and seen far too many seasons of "1 and done" playoff series after dominating the regular season.
This happens in real life as well. Just ask a Nationals fan.
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Old 02-29-2016, 11:22 PM   #16
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I am impressed

No one wrote: "if they have a 60% chance of winning each series, that's only a 21.6% chance of winning the WS. .75 * .66 *.6 = 29.7% in that situation which assumes increasing difficulty and a ?great team?. so, if you replay it and they win 1/5 to 1/3 of the time in a large sample, it's a really good team regardless of winning the WS or not."

I am impressed (honestly, no sarcasm). I can only imagine how you did the calculations at singles bars and similar moments, and I am guessing the answer is "effectively." And I wonder if you enjoy reading Homer.
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