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OOTP 16 - General Discussions Discuss the new 2015 version of Out of the Park Baseball here! |
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02-26-2016, 05:01 PM | #1 |
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123-win team loses to an 84-win team
After taking over a 70-win Cleveland team well into a simmed league of mine which had tons of prospects, I flipped them all and by Year 2 (after winning the WS in Year 1) I had an embarrassment of riches across my roster.
The top six batters and three of the top six pitchers in the National League called Cleveland home, and we went 123-39. Somebody forgot to tell the Charlotte Ports. The team that had allowed more regular-season runs than they scored stunned the world, upsetting my super team in six games in the first round of the playoffs. Some of this was a lack of attention to detail on my part. A crucial Game 2-run was scored when I forgot to set the infield in. A couple relievers had poor outings after not warming up beforehand. Due in part to my poor managing skills, the Swamp Angels gave up a 5-3 lead in Game 2, a 3-0 lead in Game 5, and, finally, a 4-0 lead in Game 6, to cause heartbreak throughout the city of Cleveland.
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02-26-2016, 05:08 PM | #2 |
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02-26-2016, 05:15 PM | #3 |
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Having the best record is practically the kiss of death.
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02-26-2016, 05:36 PM | #4 |
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you want to see heartbreak...check out my Mets dynasty.
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02-26-2016, 06:30 PM | #5 |
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Unfortunately this development does NOT surprise this Indians fan who knows the pain all too well...
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02-26-2016, 08:18 PM | #6 |
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All too realistic.
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02-26-2016, 11:01 PM | #7 |
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Oh, Cleveland. You never fail to disappoint.
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02-27-2016, 02:04 AM | #8 |
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Now I feel better about my 108-win team losing to a 93-win team, at least.
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02-27-2016, 03:52 PM | #9 |
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having the best probability of winning doesn't gaurantee anything.
next time something like that happens and you think it is anything beside luck, re-run the playoffs 10-20 times. while i wouldn't say this with confidence about a 123 win team, some times a better playoff team can have significantly fewer wins. there are some differences between regular season success and playoff success. e.g. your 5th pitcher and possibly 4th won't even be starters in the playoffs. it's very possible a team with fewer wins has a better top-3 SPs. your bench is virtually meaningless, except for platoon situations or needing some speed on the basepaths in very select situations. most of the benefits of a good bench are realized during the regular season and not the playoffs. rest is not a problem anymore. 123 wins is no joke. that has to be a solid team top-to-bottom. even taking into consideration that the regular season is different animal than the playoffs. i'm pretty sure your team would win more times than not, if you replayed those playoffs a bunch of times. if they have a 60% chance of winning each series, that's only a 21.6% chance of winning the WS. .75 * .66 *.6 = 29.7% in that situation which assumes increasing difficulty and a ?great team?. so, if you replay it and they win 1/5 to 1/3 of the time in a large sample, it's a really good team regardless of winning the WS or not. 1 year's playoff is not a good sample size, so anythign should be expected. this is actually one reason why i limit who gets into my playoffs to the top ~1/3 of teams (4 of 14 teams in each league in my case). i rarely get teams that struggle to maintain a .500 win% in the playoffs, if at all. i'm happy with whomever wins the WS, because they are all worthy teams, regardless of how much good fortune any one team receives. Last edited by NoOne; 02-27-2016 at 03:55 PM. |
02-27-2016, 07:07 PM | #10 | |
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Quote:
Am still learning |
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02-27-2016, 09:52 PM | #11 |
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It certainly doesn't help to have a manager like me who is careless and doesn't warm up guys in the bullpen; forgets to set the infield in...
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02-27-2016, 10:03 PM | #12 | |
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There was another time where a team was getting so ridiculous that I ended up having a salary cap established (to put it in perspective, this team had a 5-WAR starter moved to the bullpen because they didn't have room for him in the rotation) won an average of 122 games a year for three years, yet only even made the WS for one year in that stretch. It'll be interesting how often this team wins it all.
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02-27-2016, 10:46 PM | #13 |
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Agreed - been playing since v4 and seen far too many seasons of "1 and done" playoff series after dominating the regular season.
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02-29-2016, 02:03 PM | #14 | |
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So then in the playoffs, it's a lot more ace vs ace - which can go either way. Basically a probable strength of the dominating team is removed altogether.
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02-29-2016, 02:16 PM | #15 |
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This happens in real life as well. Just ask a Nationals fan.
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02-29-2016, 11:22 PM | #16 |
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I am impressed
No one wrote: "if they have a 60% chance of winning each series, that's only a 21.6% chance of winning the WS. .75 * .66 *.6 = 29.7% in that situation which assumes increasing difficulty and a ?great team?. so, if you replay it and they win 1/5 to 1/3 of the time in a large sample, it's a really good team regardless of winning the WS or not."
I am impressed (honestly, no sarcasm). I can only imagine how you did the calculations at singles bars and similar moments, and I am guessing the answer is "effectively." And I wonder if you enjoy reading Homer. |
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