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OOTP 16 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 03-25-2015, 12:02 PM   #1
swampdragon
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Game management

With all the improvements in this game over the years, the AI manager is still terrible. April 19, 1901: Cardinals 4, Cubs 0, top of the 7th, one out. Danny Green of the Cubs steals home! Really? How can this call ever be right?

Intentional walks out of the box are much, much higher than they should be. Is it ever right to issue an intentional walk with no one out in the 4th inning?

I could go on, but I'll just use this thread in the future to document the overuse of one run strategies by the "out of the box" AI, which is consistent and egregious. Perhaps the examples will lead to future improvements.
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Old 03-25-2015, 03:35 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swampdragon View Post
With all the improvements in this game over the years, the AI manager is still terrible. April 19, 1901: Cardinals 4, Cubs 0, top of the 7th, one out. Danny Green of the Cubs steals home! Really? How can this call ever be right?
Danny obviously saw his opportunity and he took it. I wouldn't say this strategy is always wrong.

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Intentional walks out of the box are much, much higher than they should be. Is it ever right to issue an intentional walk with no one out in the 4th inning?
Yeah, that's a head-scratcher, but a few additional details would be welcome.
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Old 03-26-2015, 10:07 PM   #3
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Intentional walks out of the box are much, much higher than they should be. Is it ever right to issue an intentional walk with no one out in the 4th inning?
It really depends on who's up. Some managers would rather walk Barry Bonds in any situation rather than give up a HR. That's why he had so many intentional walks.
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Old 03-27-2015, 08:59 AM   #4
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It really depends on who's up. Some managers would rather walk Barry Bonds in any situation rather than give up a HR. That's why he had so many intentional walks.
There are no equivalents to Bonds in 1901. No one is even going to hit 20 home runs, let alone 73. These are terrible decisions. Any time there's a free base and the guy coming up is even a little better than the man on deck, you're likely to see an intentional walk. I suspect I can fix this with the sliders, but it should be better out of the box. Maybe people are too busy simming games rather than playing them out to care. I'll just spend a few minutes with the sliders before my stats start being distorted by the issue.
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Old 03-27-2015, 07:54 PM   #5
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The game mechanics should be changed depending on the era being simulated. I'm not sure if the devs incorporated that into the portable game, but there is an option in the big game.
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Old 03-27-2015, 08:15 PM   #6
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If you would have said this steal of home happened in 2001, I would totally agree with you. it doesn't take much research to know that stealing of home becomes more prevalent the farther you go back in baseball history and that doesn't seem out of line that a player would steal home in just about any situation in 1901 if they felt like they had a chance for success. Now the intentional walks are a whole different animal.
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Old 03-29-2015, 08:31 PM   #7
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The sliders seem to have made a difference with the intentional walks. OTOH, I just had a Pirate thrown out trying to steal with the score tied in the bottom of the 8th, one out, and runners on 1st and 3rd. Then Pittsburgh needed a 2 out hit and didn't get it. Fortunately, Honus Wagner rescued them with an RBI single in the 9th for a 1-0 win. Of course, this steal was another 0% decision that wouldn't even have been right if Rickey Henderson had been on first, much less Tommy Leach.
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Old 03-31-2015, 12:53 PM   #8
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The right intentional walk setting is next to the lowest. You still get the obvious ones, and the silly ones are completely gone.

Right now I've dialed steals back one global notch, but that may be too much. I may have to use the situational sliders to tune those correctly.
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Old 03-31-2015, 02:56 PM   #9
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OTOH, I just had a Pirate thrown out trying to steal with the score tied in the bottom of the 8th, one out, and runners on 1st and 3rd. Then Pittsburgh needed a 2 out hit and didn't get it. Fortunately, Honus Wagner rescued them with an RBI single in the 9th for a 1-0 win. Of course, this steal was another 0% decision that wouldn't even have been right if Rickey Henderson had been on first, much less Tommy Leach.
With runners on the corners, stealing second was probably considered a high-percentage play during the deadball era. If the runner drew a throw to second, then the runner on third would break for home as part of a delayed double-steal. If the runner didn't draw a throw, then he got second base for free and the double-play possibility would be eliminated. If I'm the Pirates' manager and I have Tommy Leach on first base in that situation, I'm definitely thinking about sending him to second.
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Old 03-31-2015, 03:06 PM   #10
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Remember that the score is tied in the bottom of the 8th, and that there was no delayed double steal called. By being caught stealing, which happens upwards of 40% of the time in the deadball era, you give up the one out shot at scoring a runner from 3rd, who you would get home over half the time. Taking away the double play is a minor bonus compared to that penalty, and the extra run is pretty useless at that point in the game.

Edit: I ran this through something called a win expectancy finder. That figured the chances of winning before the steal are 76%. If the steal is successful, the chances go up to 79%. If the runner is caught stealing, they go down to 63%. So you would need an 81% chance of a successful steal for the call to break even. That's actually not as bad as I thought, although it's still bad.

In any event, I've used the strategy sliders to produce an in-game manager more to my liking, and they seem to be working well on the settings in my last post.
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Old 05-11-2015, 01:18 AM   #11
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Remember that the score is tied in the bottom of the 8th, and that there was no delayed double steal called. By being caught stealing, which happens upwards of 40% of the time in the deadball era, you give up the one out shot at scoring a runner from 3rd, who you would get home over half the time. Taking away the double play is a minor bonus compared to that penalty, and the extra run is pretty useless at that point in the game.

Edit: I ran this through something called a win expectancy finder. That figured the chances of winning before the steal are 76%. If the steal is successful, the chances go up to 79%. If the runner is caught stealing, they go down to 63%. So you would need an 81% chance of a successful steal for the call to break even. That's actually not as bad as I thought, although it's still bad.

In any event, I've used the strategy sliders to produce an in-game manager more to my liking, and they seem to be working well on the settings in my last post.
They didn't understand strategy nearly as much 114 years ago, and they didn't have win expectancy finders, either, surprisingly.

If you want it to play more like modern baseball, play modern baseball. Sounds pretty standard for deadball play to me.
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Old 05-11-2015, 01:43 AM   #12
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Also, as an FYI I found 52 instances of intentional walks with 0 outs in the first four innings going back to 2001 using baseball references play index. The vast majority with guys on 2nd & 3rd and a pretty good hitter up. Strangely (IMO), in 49 of those instances the fielding team was either ahead or tied.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...=1&submitter=1

This is obviously very rare, but it happens.

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Old 05-16-2015, 10:14 AM   #13
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Remember that the score is tied in the bottom of the 8th, and that there was no delayed double steal called. By being caught stealing, which happens upwards of 40% of the time in the deadball era, you give up the one out shot at scoring a runner from 3rd, who you would get home over half the time. Taking away the double play is a minor bonus compared to that penalty, and the extra run is pretty useless at that point in the game.
You're an idiot.
Not for being wrong (you're not), but for failing to realize that not everyone thinks this way, or that the highest percentage play is always the correct one. Crazy things happen sometimes; pitchers hit home runs occasionally, for example. If the "manager" feels that it's worth it to get an insurance run to ensure a chance at the win, late in a tied game with 1 out and runners on the corners, then there's nothing wrong with that. Sure, he's (the AI, in this case) being aggressive, and taking a shot at the lower percentage play paying off, but that's what gambling is all about.
Besides, the AI had friggin' Honus Wagner on deck, obviously! If that's not a safe fallback on your bet to get an extra run, then I don't know what is!
The AI had a guy on third and an out to burn. You're being overly critical of the AI, probably because it's an AI. There's nothing obviously outlandish to criticize here, so get over it.

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In any event, I've used the strategy sliders to produce an in-game manager more to my liking, and they seem to be working well on the settings in my last post.
Good. so quit yer bitchin!
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Old 05-18-2015, 01:25 PM   #14
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Here is a dumb question: to adjust the strategy used by the AI for other teams than my own, do I need to go into strategy for each other team and adjust the sliders to, for example, increase or decrease the use of base stealing as a strategy, intentional walks etc. or is there a single, master setting for the league as a whole?

And if I do change the other teams' strategies with the intention of making my own competition more difficult, what is to stop the AI managers from changing it back?

One last question, though this is, I admit, not the right thread for it, but I keep seeing people here refer to the advantages of warming up relievers, but during the game I cannot find such a command. Is there one, or is it a general "warm up relievers" command somewhere that will make that happen automatically during game time when relevant? Thanks.
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