It ain't over till it's over...and it's over before the first inning

Rookie For Life · 09-09-2014, 08:27 PM

Probably everyone here is familiar with Strat O Matic and APBA. Roll the dice, and the result could be on the pitcher's card or the hitter's card. According to the talents of the players, there were more hits on some cards and more strike outs on others.

Have you ever wondered how OOTP determines the result when the batter swings? I would have guessed that it was based on a statistically weighted random basis - but after playing a few hundred games, I'm not so sure.

There are dozens of features that I think are great on OOTP; but the one area that concerns me the most is also the most important: the actual ball game.

I wonder how OOTP's preseason predictions were so very close to the result at the end of the season. And I wondered the day my right fielder went one for three but was pronounced to be "cold" on the roster. He then went from .292 to .275, and this was after 400 at bats. How did the software know ahead of time that he was "cold"? Could it be that the software is not just reporting the results, but manufacturing the results? And the streaks - so many players and teams go on hot and cold streaks. If you have ever taken a high school or college statistics class - or played dice games - you would have to question how randomly selected results could have so many streaks. The odds would be astronomical.

I have posed these questions to the OOTP developers - no response. Does the software report randomly selected results, or does the software itself determine the results based on some unknown and arbitrary criteria? The difference is like watching college wrestling....or WWF.

Izz · 09-09-2014, 08:39 PM

The preseason predictions in the league i'm currently running are usually nowhere near the final results.

Orcin · 09-09-2014, 08:42 PM

You should probably post a little more information, such as type of league (fictional or historical or 2014 quickstart), settings used, and number of seasons played. That might allow people to comment on your specific case.

David Watts · 09-10-2014, 08:20 AM

So basically what this comes down to is your inability to study the players game card? Since you can't, the game has to be fudging the numbers. Have you posed this same question to the makers of Action Pc baseball? Diamond Mind Baseball? If OOTP is predetermining things, what things are being predetermined? I guess it would have to be league totals. I just don't buy it.

09-09-2014, 08:27 PM	#1
Rookie For Life Bat Boy Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 5	It ain't over till it's over...and it's over before the first inning Probably everyone here is familiar with Strat O Matic and APBA. Roll the dice, and the result could be on the pitcher's card or the hitter's card. According to the talents of the players, there were more hits on some cards and more strike outs on others. Have you ever wondered how OOTP determines the result when the batter swings? I would have guessed that it was based on a statistically weighted random basis - but after playing a few hundred games, I'm not so sure. There are dozens of features that I think are great on OOTP; but the one area that concerns me the most is also the most important: the actual ball game. I wonder how OOTP's preseason predictions were so very close to the result at the end of the season. And I wondered the day my right fielder went one for three but was pronounced to be "cold" on the roster. He then went from .292 to .275, and this was after 400 at bats. How did the software know ahead of time that he was "cold"? Could it be that the software is not just reporting the results, but manufacturing the results? And the streaks - so many players and teams go on hot and cold streaks. If you have ever taken a high school or college statistics class - or played dice games - you would have to question how randomly selected results could have so many streaks. The odds would be astronomical. I have posed these questions to the OOTP developers - no response. Does the software report randomly selected results, or does the software itself determine the results based on some unknown and arbitrary criteria? The difference is like watching college wrestling....or WWF.

09-09-2014, 08:39 PM	#2
Izz Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 2,467	The preseason predictions in the league i'm currently running are usually nowhere near the final results. __________________ Not only do I play OOTP but I also write science-fiction: My Website A brief history of the Australia-New Zealand Baseball League (AUNZBL 2019-2119)--A Dynasty Report The National Penterham Four-Bases Association--A Dynasty Report

09-09-2014, 08:42 PM	#3
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,798	You should probably post a little more information, such as type of league (fictional or historical or 2014 quickstart), settings used, and number of seasons played. That might allow people to comment on your specific case.

09-10-2014, 08:20 AM	#4
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 8,865	So basically what this comes down to is your inability to study the players game card? Since you can't, the game has to be fudging the numbers. Have you posed this same question to the makers of Action Pc baseball? Diamond Mind Baseball? If OOTP is predetermining things, what things are being predetermined? I guess it would have to be league totals. I just don't buy it.