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Old 11-20-2016, 07:22 PM   #1
Accipiter
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Unhappy Why do my guys NEVER hit as many homeruns as their ratings indicate they should?

I've noticed this over the past couple iterations of OOTP. I play starting in modern day, for what it's worth, and do a league-wide fantasy draft to start. The computer controlled teams have guys that hit in the 40s and even occasionally 50s for homeruns, but in probably 40 simmed years over OOTP '16, and starting fresh in OOTP 17 another 30 seasons, I had one guy hit 55, and then only one other season where one guy hit 40 even. This includes deep into the future when it's all computer-generated players in the league.

I have adequate protection in the lineup, my 3-5 hitters are all usually great, and the last several seasons I even splurged and 2-6 in my lineup are all overall rated at least 72+, and my 3-5 hitters ALL have over 90 for home-run power, along with very high contact ratings, and good eye/avoid K ratings (hence the high overall ratings on them). Yet this year they're all going to hit 25 homeruns.

When I check the editor, every one of them is listed as being expected to hit 40-45 homeruns. This happens constantly, no matter how good my lineup is, no matter how much protection they have, no matter how good the player. For what it's worth, I'm simming as the Red Sox, so it's Fenway I'm in.

Last edited by Accipiter; 11-20-2016 at 07:26 PM. Reason: adding more context.
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Old 11-20-2016, 07:43 PM   #2
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Checking the editor is looking under the hood. Why not just "fix" the results if that is what you want.

In game results are often "unfair". Consider the fact that you can win any time you really want to, over time, in-game. OOTP is about the struggle to succeed against apparently random bad results.

FWIW I have never used the editor to improve a player. I use it to remove defensive positions that they should not play.
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Old 11-20-2016, 07:52 PM   #3
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What are your park factors? Are you facing a lot of RHP and have a heavy RHH lineup?
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Old 11-20-2016, 07:55 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RchW View Post
Checking the editor is looking under the hood. Why not just "fix" the results if that is what you want.

In game results are often "unfair". Consider the fact that you can win any time you really want to, over time, in-game. OOTP is about the struggle to succeed against apparently random bad results.

FWIW I have never used the editor to improve a player. I use it to remove defensive positions that they should not play.
I think you misread what I wrote; I don't use the editor to change the players, I went in to verify that I wasn't crazy thinking they should have higher HR totals. Everything else is in line, roughly. Obviously it's randomish year to year, but the guys with good eye/avoid k's are getting lots of walks and low strikeouts, gap power guys get doubles etc. For some reason though my guys with high HR power never produce.
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Old 11-20-2016, 07:59 PM   #5
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What are your park factors? Are you facing a lot of RHP and have a heavy RHH lineup?
I have two leagues, one 70+ seasons one well over 90 seasons. I can't tell you what the park factors are. They are whatever they were when I started each league. The game plays out and I try to win.

What does that have to do with using the player editor.
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Old 11-20-2016, 08:00 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Accipiter View Post
I think you misread what I wrote; I don't use the editor to change the players, I went in to verify that I wasn't crazy thinking they should have higher HR totals. Everything else is in line, roughly. Obviously it's randomish year to year, but the guys with good eye/avoid k's are getting lots of walks and low strikeouts, gap power guys get doubles etc. For some reason though my guys with high HR power never produce.
They may be in decline via the development/aging module.
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Old 11-20-2016, 08:15 PM   #7
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I have two leagues, one 70+ seasons one well over 90 seasons. I can't tell you what the park factors are. They are whatever they were when I started each league. The game plays out and I try to win.

What does that have to do with using the player editor.
He's wondering why his guys don't hit 40-45 HR like the editor suggests. In other words, why are they underacheiving? One reason why might be park factors. Like, if his park limits HR to RH power hitters, then you could have a 90 Power guy who won't hit as many HR as he would in a neutral park or one that favours RHH.

And sidenote, you're missing a huge opportunity if you don't know your own park factors (or your opponent's park factors). That's a massive advantage for regular season plus playoffs. If you're facing a team full of LH bats, and your park suppresses LH power, and his park is easy to hit HR for LHH, then you'd want to use your RH starters in your park, and more LH starters in his park.
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Old 11-20-2016, 08:18 PM   #8
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What are your park factors? Are you facing a lot of RHP and have a heavy RHH lineup?
Well now I'm confused...I checked Fenway's park factors: .882 overall HR factor, .920 for RHB and .810 for LHB.....Obviously doubles are up from the Green Monster...but I always thought of Fenway as being a bit of a band box, so I'm confused. That pretty much answers my question, so thank you.
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Old 11-20-2016, 08:29 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Accipiter View Post
Well now I'm confused...I checked Fenway's park factors: .882 overall HR factor, .920 for RHB and .810 for LHB.....Obviously doubles are up from the Green Monster...but I always thought of Fenway as being a bit of a band box, so I'm confused. That pretty much answers my question, so thank you.
If the park factors are off that sounds like an in-game error. Those numbers seem very low based on modern day numbers. You should post this as a bug.
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Old 11-20-2016, 08:31 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Accipiter View Post
Well now I'm confused...I checked Fenway's park factors: .882 overall HR factor, .920 for RHB and .810 for LHB.....Obviously doubles are up from the Green Monster...but I always thought of Fenway as being a bit of a band box, so I'm confused. That pretty much answers my question, so thank you.
Glad to help.
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Old 11-21-2016, 04:43 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Accipiter View Post
I think you misread what I wrote; I don't use the editor to change the players, I went in to verify that I wasn't crazy thinking they should have higher HR totals. Everything else is in line, roughly. Obviously it's randomish year to year, but the guys with good eye/avoid k's are getting lots of walks and low strikeouts, gap power guys get doubles etc. For some reason though my guys with high HR power never produce.
Those numbers are based on a modern mlb environment... in game that essentially means with 1.000 PCM and appropriate league totals with LTMs that result in those LTs occuring over the long run (aka infinite sample that can account for player turnover, injuries, luck etc etc in their proper proportions).

So, there are a number of reasons why the numbers in the editor will not match the results of a league... especially if you look at one player or one season... the more narrow the view the more volatility you should expect. it could look wrong per one player, but actually be perfectly fine.

hr's themselves are quite volatile. distribution of talent in the league could have an effect. players are all relative to each other... so, for example, if you made a league with all the players having 100/100 power, then they would all get a rough share of the League Total for Homeruns (also assuming the modifiers are properly set for those LT). they don't get X hr per X power.. it's relative to the league's talent and the totals.

you;ll need to have an idea of what "normal" is for this to work below... there's a difference between real players and fictional players, too... this is a bit complicated to explain, lol.

so, first i'd turn 100% accurate scouting on and re-scout - probably best with a restored backup you don't mind playing around with like this.

so, list all mlb players and sort by power... i'd use something simple for fast comparison like how many 60+ power out of 100 (percentages! need to compare proportion). how many with 80+.... just don't be too rigid in what is the "same" it fluctuates year-to-year but something egregious should stand out.

if distribution looks fine, then it's your league totals and league modifiers. if you want more homruns, increase the hr modifiers... Stick to adjusting modifiers in the game, not the totals.

Only adjust league totals if you do them all togeterh. For exampl, BABIP should be caclulated from the totals you are using (*one component of babip needs to be mined from a consistent LTM below the totals section... one more reason not to touch totals). it's somewhere near ~1200/165500ab, so guestimating won't cause too much error. the main point is that the numbers should jive in the totals section... you shouldn't add 500 to this or that and click autocalculate modifiers, haphazardly.

make sure the resulting slash is reasonable, too.


EDIT: way up at the top i use 100/100 power as the example... it doesn't matter what the rating is if all the player have the same rating... that's the key, not max power... just in case that wasn't clear. players, in an infinite sample, will get their share of the home runs based on their ratings relative to the league when autocalc was clicked. (simplified... obviously home runs involve more than power)

Last edited by NoOne; 11-30-2016 at 03:55 PM.
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Old 11-21-2016, 04:58 PM   #12
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as far as player evaluaion... high power guys with big weaknesses in either portion of contact, even though it adds up to above average or better can be very up and down when it comes to results. few are machines like hank aaron's consistency. (and never hit 50, right?)

Contact, 2 parts:

avoid k's - if they strike out 160-180+ that's borderline roll of the dice each year.

babip - you have to guesstimate this portion of contact... if you see really high avoid k's with an above average contact, you know they guy has a hard time puttin the ball in play.... not a good sign. same thing as above.. more volatility.

I'd even suggest Eye/patience is a big factor. I'd even argue having too much is not necesarily a good thing for certain roles in the lineup (maybe >160/200 or more for a raking power hitter). More importantly is not being too weak in this area.

trust the color code signifies somethign when you go from yellow/gold to an orangish darker yellow.. that's borderline MLB competent. much bewlo that and it will more likely be a problem in any year.

if your ratings resolution isn't large enough to see this, then you just have to translate from stats... same thing, but takes a bit of effort on your part to look it up and know how it all relates
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