How Can i Try To Get My Cf Out Of a Really Bad Slump?

The Game · 02-15-2016, 01:55 AM

He is am edited player, so i know what he is supposed to do this year but he has struggled beyond belief this year so far. His edited stats line is approx 530 AB 175 Hits. .330 40 doubles 14 triples 31 HR 109 BB 55 K.
Right now thru 41 G he is hitting .215 3 2B 3 3B 9 HR 32 RBI 27 R .318 OBP 22 BB 20 K. He is hitting .148 over the last 2 weeks. He hit .192 in April.
Normally my #3 hitter i have moved him to 4th, then to 5th now 2nd. You can see more of his stats below. i know 41 games is not a season but my offense, especially vs LHP is stagnant right now. I had 6 losses through May 12th, now I have 12 lossses and only have a 1½ game lead over the 2nd place team who i have one more game against today.. They have won 3 of the 4 so far.

SaoMagnifico · 02-15-2016, 02:18 AM

I dunno. Sometimes players slump hard. I had that happen this season with Josh Donaldson, who just totally fell off a cliff, and I was lucky enough to be able to swing a midseason trade for him plus four middling prospects in exchange for Anthony Rendon, who proceeded to rip 37 bases and put up an elite triple slash for me.

Sometimes you just have to dump players when they're not performing, but it looks like the scouting report is still bullish on the guy, so maybe he'll come out of it.

JMDurron · 02-15-2016, 08:16 AM

Since he's an edited player, you know for a fact that everything is fine, so just ride it out. The only time I will typically see a player with high editor ratings (I scout using the editor, but do not edit those ratings) actually underperform on a regular basis is when the Avoid K rating is disproportionately low in the Contact area - once the high-K rate pitchers take over the league, his overall value and effectiveness drops like a rock.

It doesn't look like that is happening here, so I think you'll be fine in the long run.

BBGiovanni · 02-15-2016, 12:27 PM

Nothing... but wait for the stats to normalize. Think of it this way, if he's going to SLG over .600, there will be a torrid month or two that you don't want to miss out on

I think it's mostly superstition, but usually I'll bench a guy the game after the snowflake shows up on the player list. If there's a cromulent platoon partner or sub I'll give that guy a couple of games. I also try to use the cold player as a sub as often as I can, especially in blowout games, so he gets his AB without dragging down the team.

Padreman · 02-15-2016, 12:35 PM

You know if it's really bad I do it sometimes I usually will send them down to the minors get some abets over there and that usually start to kill it and I bring them back up works for me

kq76 · 02-15-2016, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBGiovanni

Nothing... but wait for the stats to normalize. Think of it this way, if he's going to SLG over .600, there will be a torrid month or two that you don't want to miss out on

I think it's mostly superstition, but usually I'll bench a guy the game after the snowflake shows up on the player list. If there's a cromulent platoon partner or sub I'll give that guy a couple of games. I also try to use the cold player as a sub as often as I can, especially in blowout games, so he gets his AB without dragging down the team.

Are you saying that if a usual .300 hitter hits .200 for a month that you'd expect him to soon hit .400 for a month or .300? If you expect the former, I doubt that OOTP works that way. I have to imagine that it works the latter way, just as flipping a coin works. Sure, you'll probably get that .400 month eventually, just as another .200 is as likely, but if he's a .300 hitter the best I think you can expect is he'll soon get back to having .300 months.

As for when to take a guy out due to a cold streak, I really don't know. Yeah, he's probably not going to stay cold for long, but I think I agree with managers who ride the guy who is hot until he goes cold then try someone else.

actionjackson · 02-15-2016, 01:07 PM

Wait...He'll come around and before you know it, he'll be his beastly self again...Or not.

After all, it is only a quarter of the season. Plenty of time for a hot streak or two to normalize things.

NoOne · 02-15-2016, 01:32 PM

the prediction in the editor is for a modern day league, according to them. so, if your league is lower slugging league-wide, his slugging will be a bit lower in your league.

regardless, if the player has good ratings, he will perform upto his ability when given enough time. scouting accuracy, durability, etc all have to be considered too.

while there is no such thing as "being due", numbers will always regress to the mean when given the opportunity. if time/opportunity is cut short, anything can happen. each result is exclusive of previous or future results. ootp abides by the law of independent results.

a streak is just in your head. even something like morale falls under this law. it's just one more factor that results in the overall success/failure rate for that individual at that moment in time. it's a fluid value.

jpeters1734 · 02-15-2016, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kq76

Are you saying that if a usual .300 hitter hits .200 for a month that you'd expect him to soon hit .400 for a month or .300? If you expect the former, I doubt that OOTP works that way. I have to imagine that it works the latter way, just as flipping a coin works. Sure, you'll probably get that .400 month eventually, just as another .200 is as likely, but if he's a .300 hitter the best I think you can expect is he'll soon get back to having .300 months.

As for when to take a guy out due to a cold streak, I really don't know. Yeah, he's probably not going to stay cold for long, but I think I agree with managers who ride the guy who is hot until he goes cold then try someone else.

But isn't that how averages work? If a player is a career 300 hitter and starts slumping, you could expect him to eventually get back to 300 by batting above 300 for a while.

ThePretender · 02-15-2016, 08:50 PM

He's on pace for 5 WAR. Let him keep playing. If this was July/August and he was on pace for 0.5-1 WAR then yeah you could justify benching or platooning but he's on pace to be an All Star calibre player. Relax, and realize next year will be better.

kq76 · 02-15-2016, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

But isn't that how averages work? If a player is a career 300 hitter and starts slumping, you could expect him to eventually get back to 300 by batting above 300 for a while.

It depends, do you have a system where it's trying to "make up" for previous bad or good occurrences or do you have a system like flipping a coin where the coin that's about to be flipped doesn't know nor care what happened the last time it was flipped. It might depend on the situation you have, but in general I'd say you usually want the latter system.

I seem to remember a conversation around here years ago that was about how some baseball game did do the former, but Markus came out and said OOTP does the latter. I think it was Diamond Mind that does the former because at the end of the season it aims for players to perform almost exactly as they performed in the past. But think about if OOTP did that, we'd all be looking at past performances as an opposite indicator of future performance and who would want that. Maybe some would, but I have to imagine the vast majority wouldn't as there's much less surprise then.

Note that people bring up the words regression to the mean and normalize a lot. The word normalize means different things depending on the situation and I want to say I don't think a statistician would use it here. It's a word that's coming into the popular vernacular though and it's often unclear to me what people mean by it because it's taking on so many different meanings. Regression to the mean has a pretty clear meaning in statistics, but it's still unclear to me when people use it whether they mean that they expect to see future results make up for past results or if they simply mean that after a long time that the results will approach the mean and so that initial bad run or good run won't be as noticeable as it once was. Which is all to say, which system are we using: a rectify system or a coin flip?

jpeters1734 · 02-15-2016, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kq76

It depends, do you have a system where it's trying to "make up" for previous bad or good occurrences or do you have a system like flipping a coin where the coin that's about to be flipped doesn't know nor care what happened the last time it was flipped. It might depend on the situation you have, but in general I'd say you usually want the latter system.

I seem to remember a conversation around here years ago that was about how some baseball game did do the former, but Markus came out and said OOTP does the latter. I think it was Diamond Mind that does the former because at the end of the season it aims for players to perform almost exactly as they performed in the past. But think about if OOTP did that, we'd all be looking at past performances as an opposite indicator of future performance and who would want that. Maybe some would, but I have to imagine the vast majority wouldn't as there's much less surprise then.

Note that people bring up the words regression to the mean and normalize a lot. The word normalize means different things depending on the situation and I want to say I don't think a statistician would use it here. It's a word that's coming into the popular vernacular though and it's often unclear to me what people mean by it because it's taking on so many different meanings. Regression to the mean has a pretty clear meaning in statistics, but it's still unclear to me when people use it whether they mean that they expect to see future results make up for past results or if they simply mean that after a long time that the results will approach the mean and so that initial bad run or good run won't be as noticeable as it once was. Which is all to say, which system are we using: a rectify system or a coin flip?

ok so you're talking about this in a technical sense. I was thinking about it mathematically.

The Game · 02-17-2016, 03:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

the prediction in the editor is for a modern day league, according to them. so, if your league is lower slugging league-wide, his slugging will be a bit lower in your league.

regardless, if the player has good ratings, he will perform upto his ability when given enough time. scouting accuracy, durability, etc all have to be considered too.

while there is no such thing as "being due", numbers will always regress to the mean when given the opportunity. if time/opportunity is cut short, anything can happen. each result is exclusive of previous or future results. ootp abides by the law of independent results.

a streak is just in your head. even something like morale falls under this law. it's just one more factor that results in the overall success/failure rate for that individual at that moment in time. it's a fluid value.

1995 modifiers.
I would not mind his slump so much if the backup CF, who is also an edited player was hitting. i sent the backup down to AAA for a few games til an injury brought him back up. Damon Fitzgerald, the 4th OF was hitting .210 in 62 AB 1 BB 13 K. in 30 AAA AB's he hit .367 4 HR 10 RBI .441 OBP.

NoOne · 02-17-2016, 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

But isn't that how averages work? If a player is a career 300 hitter and starts slumping, you could expect him to eventually get back to 300 by batting above 300 for a while.

if his true average is .300 (a much simpler concept in the game vs. real life), it will eventually regress to the mean, if given enough time, all other things remaining the same.

injuries, aging and a plethora of other things based on luck or something more tangible will have it's expected influence on this concept.

i'm not the best at explaining so check this url out:

https://en.wikipedia.org/XXXX don't go here XXXwiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

they really shouldn't explain it as 1st try then 2nd measurement must be clsoer... that's simply not true. assuming things remain the same, there is an equal chance of that odd occurence every time. there is no guantee that hte next measurment will be "more normal," but it's more likely likely.

wow you know what, don't go to wiki. they did a horrid job on that concept. i don't usually see it this bad.

Rizon · 02-17-2016, 07:48 PM

I'd have him ride the pine for 2 or 3 games.

McGuiser · 02-17-2016, 08:37 PM

In my experience, only half paying attention, cold players can stay cold all season. Unless I have a cold superstar or no viable replacement, I try to avoid playing cold players. Minors or the bench.

I also suspect that a *traded* player gets cold/hot reset to normal, so trading for someone else's underperformer can be rewarding. This seems close to real life.

02-15-2016, 01:55 AM	#1
The Game Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Inside The Game Posts: 30,807	How Can i Try To Get My Cf Out Of a Really Bad Slump? He is am edited player, so i know what he is supposed to do this year but he has struggled beyond belief this year so far. His edited stats line is approx 530 AB 175 Hits. .330 40 doubles 14 triples 31 HR 109 BB 55 K. Right now thru 41 G he is hitting .215 3 2B 3 3B 9 HR 32 RBI 27 R .318 OBP 22 BB 20 K. He is hitting .148 over the last 2 weeks. He hit .192 in April. Normally my #3 hitter i have moved him to 4th, then to 5th now 2nd. You can see more of his stats below. i know 41 games is not a season but my offense, especially vs LHP is stagnant right now. I had 6 losses through May 12th, now I have 12 lossses and only have a 1½ game lead over the 2nd place team who i have one more game against today.. They have won 3 of the 4 so far. Attached Images __________________ Go today don't wait for tomorrow It isn't promised, all the time you get borrowed Don't live your life for other people Don't bottle your emotions till they crack and fill a couple just sorrows Take your mind and refocus go get a paper write your goals out Throw your middle fingers to all your haters "Stay Strong"

02-15-2016, 02:18 AM	#2
SaoMagnifico Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 143	I dunno. Sometimes players slump hard. I had that happen this season with Josh Donaldson, who just totally fell off a cliff, and I was lucky enough to be able to swing a midseason trade for him plus four middling prospects in exchange for Anthony Rendon, who proceeded to rip 37 bases and put up an elite triple slash for me. Sometimes you just have to dump players when they're not performing, but it looks like the scouting report is still bullish on the guy, so maybe he'll come out of it. Last edited by SaoMagnifico; 02-15-2016 at 02:42 AM.

02-15-2016, 12:35 PM	#5
Padreman Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2013 Location: Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico (formally San Diego, CA.) Posts: 4,140 Blog Entries: 1	You know if it's really bad I do it sometimes I usually will send them down to the minors get some abets over there and that usually start to kill it and I bring them back up works for me __________________ Chargers= Despicable Traitors

02-17-2016, 07:48 PM	#15
Rizon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: SF Area, California Total Posts: 531,691 Posts: 2,363	I'd have him ride the pine for 2 or 3 games. __________________ JML MILKSHAKES

02-17-2016, 08:37 PM	#16
McGuiser Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 363	Bad stuff happens In my experience, only half paying attention, cold players can stay cold all season. Unless I have a cold superstar or no viable replacement, I try to avoid playing cold players. Minors or the bench. I also suspect that a traded player gets cold/hot reset to normal, so trading for someone else's underperformer can be rewarding. This seems close to real life.

02-15-2016, 08:16 AM	#3
JMDurron All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,262	Since he's an edited player, you know for a fact that everything is fine, so just ride it out. The only time I will typically see a player with high editor ratings (I scout using the editor, but do not edit those ratings) actually underperform on a regular basis is when the Avoid K rating is disproportionately low in the Contact area - once the high-K rate pitchers take over the league, his overall value and effectiveness drops like a rock. It doesn't look like that is happening here, so I think you'll be fine in the long run.

02-15-2016, 12:27 PM	#4
BBGiovanni All Star Starter Join Date: Aug 2015 Location: Republic of California Posts: 1,850	Nothing... but wait for the stats to normalize. Think of it this way, if he's going to SLG over .600, there will be a torrid month or two that you don't want to miss out on I think it's mostly superstition, but usually I'll bench a guy the game after the snowflake shows up on the player list. If there's a cromulent platoon partner or sub I'll give that guy a couple of games. I also try to use the cold player as a sub as often as I can, especially in blowout games, so he gets his AB without dragging down the team.

02-15-2016, 01:07 PM	#7
actionjackson Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Toronto, ON Posts: 6,123	Wait...He'll come around and before you know it, he'll be his beastly self again...Or not. After all, it is only a quarter of the season. Plenty of time for a hot streak or two to normalize things.

02-15-2016, 01:32 PM	#8
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	the prediction in the editor is for a modern day league, according to them. so, if your league is lower slugging league-wide, his slugging will be a bit lower in your league. regardless, if the player has good ratings, he will perform upto his ability when given enough time. scouting accuracy, durability, etc all have to be considered too. while there is no such thing as "being due", numbers will always regress to the mean when given the opportunity. if time/opportunity is cut short, anything can happen. each result is exclusive of previous or future results. ootp abides by the law of independent results. a streak is just in your head. even something like morale falls under this law. it's just one more factor that results in the overall success/failure rate for that individual at that moment in time. it's a fluid value.

02-15-2016, 08:50 PM	#10
ThePretender All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,303	He's on pace for 5 WAR. Let him keep playing. If this was July/August and he was on pace for 0.5-1 WAR then yeah you could justify benching or platooning but he's on pace to be an All Star calibre player. Relax, and realize next year will be better.