How To Fix My Broken Right Fielder?

oriolesmeep · 09-09-2016, 04:27 PM

In my fictional league, I have a 3B/RF who has fallen off for almost no reason that I can see. Originally a SS, after breaking into the league as a 21 year old he soon became one of the best players in the game. I acquired him in a trade just before his age 24 season, where he hit 43 homers, put up a .268/.338/.537 slash and totaled 6.2 WAR. His biggest issue was his strikeouts (219 that year, second time leading the league) but giving his top-tier power I could deal with that. I gave him a 7 year, $82.17 million extension, expecting for him to sit in the center of my order for a long time.

His next two years he came down to earth a bit, totaling 3.4 and 1.9 (BABIP driven) WAR over those two seasons. But now, over halfway through his age 27 season, he no longer looks like a MLB-caliber player.

With no ratings decline in what should be his prime, he's now hitting .207/.270/.395, worth -0.4 WAR (bottom 10 in the league), and no indicator signals he's having bad BABIP luck or the like. After striking out ~30% of the time through his career, it's jumped to 43.2%, vs a 4.6% walk rate, his lowest since his rookie year. He's on pace for 261 strikeouts, which would be 30 more than the season record, which was set by a rookie catcher in his age 20 season.

I've tried the standard, benching him for a few games, moving him down in the order, etc. Shopping him around just reveals a bunch of overpaid vets. He refuses a minors demotion, and I don't want to outright release him and eat over $60 million. I don't have a solid replacement, the rookie top prospect I brought up forgot how to hit or field and my backup outfielder doesn't even know what end of the bat to hold. I'm out of ideas. What would you do if a player in the middle of his prime all of a sudden did this?

battists · 09-09-2016, 04:34 PM

Ouch. This is a tough one. I would certainly bury him near the bottom of the lineup for the foreseeable future or even bench him if you can obtain a more serviceable backup.

How is his morale? Maybe that is hurting his performance?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

oriolesmeep · 09-09-2016, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by battists

How is his morale? Maybe that is hurting his performance?

His morale is angry, but the cause of that is his performance.

BoomerSoonerAMH · 09-09-2016, 05:52 PM

I think there are a bunch of potential factors that could account for this situation with the information available. I'll throw out one scenario that includes several of these factors tied together with the thought that even if a couple of them are discredited, the general theme will be that any of these factors could still be in play. Also note, that I'm basing these theories on real life. While I'm confident OOTP does mirror most of these items, I can't say for certain that is the case.

During the years this player rose to stardom he had solid protection behind him in the lineup and pitchers were less likely to pitch on the corners. Pitchers were also less aware of his power as he hadn't built the reputation of being a power hitter. If the lineup protection is taken away and pitchers don't fear the next batter, they worry less about walking your star player and don't serve up fastballs in the middle of the plate. Pitchers also come to learn that this guy will swing at anything, so the result is a steady stream of off-speed pitches and breaking balls in the dirt. Combine this with your star's lack of plate discipline and not only does he strike out a ton more, but he's also not hammering the ball like he was at the height of his performance.

I could add more to this, but I'll summarize my position on this with saying that high strike out, low walk guys seem be susceptible to having sharper drop offs.

slugger922cubs · 09-09-2016, 06:38 PM

This happens in real life too. See Jason Heyward. If theres no decline in ratings just drop him in your order and platoon/rest him. Eventually he'll snap out of his funk and return to glory or the scouts will eventually realize hes lost it and his ratings will drop and it'll be clear where he lost his edge. Baseball is a cruel game like that. It happens way more than we realize because once players top producing or fall out of favor we just for get about them. In OOTP even if hes not playing is contract is still staring you right in the face.

BBGiovanni · 09-09-2016, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slugger922cubs

This happens in real life too. See Jason Heyward. If theres no decline in ratings just drop him in your order and platoon/rest him. Eventually he'll snap out of his funk and return to glory or the scouts will eventually realize hes lost it and his ratings will drop and it'll be clear where he lost his edge. Baseball is a cruel game like that. It happens way more than we realize because once players top producing or fall out of favor we just for get about them. In OOTP even if hes not playing is contract is still staring you right in the face.

This is the only way, IMO, although you will probably make him mad for playing time (I forget what factor that is). This of course assumes he was not injured before... that can permanently affect the ratings.

Anyway, do also remember.... half a season isn't a season! If he puts up an outrageously good half year, it could balance out the bad start and bring him back to better than replacement level. I'd be really reluctant to give up on him for the entire year but platooning or giving someone else some starts (careful to make sure he actually has a platoon split!) might be a decent middle ground.

Finally as to Heyward... his problem is that he's been overrated for a good long time, about the time he was serenaded with "Posey's better!" in the 2010 postseason. If I had a dime for every Mets fan that told me this winter that him in CF was the answer to all their offensive problems I'd have an awful lot of dimes now :P In fairness to him, I wonder if he's (sadly) one of those guys who has his potential limited by repeated injuries to the point he never becomes what he could have been.

oriolesmeep · 09-09-2016, 10:21 PM

Just to address a couple points here:

In his best season, he was my offense. I had a bunch of young guys with minimal experience, and he carried my offense completely. He actually has better protection this year than he has had in his entire career.

His power is still there. He's basically turned into a Mark Reynolds who doesn't walk and somehow strikes out even more.

His injury rating is fragile, but he hasn't had a major injury that would sap his ratings. My scout has him at (2-8 scale) 4-6-7-5-2. OSA is a 4-5-6-5-2.

I know it's a half season, but we're in a tight 3-way race for the division (no wild cards) and I have other holes to fill without this headache.

I've tried benching him, but even this useless version of him is a huge improvement over both my backup outfielder and my prospect (who has also since forgotten how to hit AAA pitching). I could have my DH play right field, but I don't want to commit to that for the season because his defense is so poor.

I don't have a platoon partner for him, unfortunately. I've scoured the waiver wire, but my outfield depth is awful and so is the rest of the league's.

MrBojangles · 09-10-2016, 12:32 AM

Great advice. I had a long-time star experience a similar performance decline - while his ratings remained strong.
It lasted a full season.
Early into the next season and he is back is fine form. Exact same time and line up both seasons.
No explanation...

Curve Ball Dave · 09-10-2016, 12:53 AM

Baseball stats are never predictive and players don't perform exactly the same from one time period to the next. They can have good streaks and bad.

Baseball is also a game of adjustments. The players that stick around and have the longer careers are the ones that always adapt and adjust. What was working one week, month, or season may not work in the future. Pitchers figure out hitters and visa versa. It never stops changing, it's a constant battle.

If your player has fallen off the cliff, it may that he is not making the adjustments he needs to stay successful. He's been in the league a while, opponents have the video and scouting and have figured out how to pitch to him. He was very strike out prone as it was, and the knowledge the league now has on him has only made it worse.

Or, he may adjust and bounce back. That's baseball.

oriolesmeep · 09-10-2016, 12:31 PM

If there is a positive here, while looking at his splits trying to find something to go off of, I noticed that in high leverage (73 PAs), he's hitting .299/.342/.687, with 8 homers and 2 grand slams. So for all his ineptness, he's still a clutch hitter.

oriolesmeep · 09-10-2016, 01:47 PM

Well, he's no longer my problem. Managed to trade him and a pitching prospect for a couple of outfielders who, while without the same high ceiling, should be more consistent and not strike out anywhere near as often.

Honorable_Pawn · 09-10-2016, 02:18 PM

OOTP's-Law

Now he will rebound and be great once again.

TheMaus2 · 09-13-2016, 03:25 PM

Tim Lincecum anyone?

JMDurron · 09-13-2016, 03:34 PM

His BA/OBP were so low and his Ks so high during the best year that you cited above that I think he may just have always been hovering on the edge of a contact skill collapse. It would only take a relatively small decline in BABIP to combine with low Eye/Avoid K ratings to make him a liability in (what I presume to be) a Modern MLB environment, given how prevalent Ks are in today's game. His multiple-year decline (not just a half season) indicates to me that he's just an early flameout guy, so good on you for trading him away when you could.

Cadieux39 · 09-13-2016, 04:27 PM

I had this happen to a player of mine. Could it be he is simply flaming out? I know way more about hockey than baseball and it just makes me think of Dany Heatley, or Alex Yashin.

My player a 19 year old Rookie in 1946, had a rookie year hitting 40hr, .320 avg 7.6 War stat.

From 19-23 he had WAR of 5 or better. won 3 batting titles. I figured this Rookie 1st basemen would be around for ever. So i signed him to a 8 year deal in 1950. He was 23.

At 24 he missed half a season with an injury. His stats dropped. at 25 his stats again struggled 20hr, .280 at the sticks. at 26 and 27 he bounced back but not to his rookie levels.

Then he simply flamed out. He was making 90k a year, the highest salary at that time on my team. But he was hitting .250 about 15-20 Hr a year. 28 was a rough year...

At 29 his numbers kept being awful. So i benched him... His moral tanked, but he was no longer playing at the quality of an average starter. At 30 i was shopping him around, but could not trade him. So again this player only played half a year and thats because my new 1b player got hurt. At 31 his last year of the contract, i was able to ship him off with a prospect pitcher for a minor league player. I was desperate to trade him to save on his poor attitude and his 90k contract which by 1958 was 4th highest on my team.

Since traded this player continues to struggle to hit +1 as a war stat on his new team.

My guess, this guy simply flamed out. I use the Star system for player overall skill. He went from 5 star to 1.5 in 12 years he managed to hit 1500 times. Im guessing in 3 years from now he will not be playing baseball.

09-09-2016, 04:27 PM	#1
oriolesmeep Minors (Double A) Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 103	How To Fix My Broken Right Fielder? In my fictional league, I have a 3B/RF who has fallen off for almost no reason that I can see. Originally a SS, after breaking into the league as a 21 year old he soon became one of the best players in the game. I acquired him in a trade just before his age 24 season, where he hit 43 homers, put up a .268/.338/.537 slash and totaled 6.2 WAR. His biggest issue was his strikeouts (219 that year, second time leading the league) but giving his top-tier power I could deal with that. I gave him a 7 year, $82.17 million extension, expecting for him to sit in the center of my order for a long time. His next two years he came down to earth a bit, totaling 3.4 and 1.9 (BABIP driven) WAR over those two seasons. But now, over halfway through his age 27 season, he no longer looks like a MLB-caliber player. With no ratings decline in what should be his prime, he's now hitting .207/.270/.395, worth -0.4 WAR (bottom 10 in the league), and no indicator signals he's having bad BABIP luck or the like. After striking out ~30% of the time through his career, it's jumped to 43.2%, vs a 4.6% walk rate, his lowest since his rookie year. He's on pace for 261 strikeouts, which would be 30 more than the season record, which was set by a rookie catcher in his age 20 season. I've tried the standard, benching him for a few games, moving him down in the order, etc. Shopping him around just reveals a bunch of overpaid vets. He refuses a minors demotion, and I don't want to outright release him and eat over $60 million. I don't have a solid replacement, the rookie top prospect I brought up forgot how to hit or field and my backup outfielder doesn't even know what end of the bat to hold. I'm out of ideas. What would you do if a player in the middle of his prime all of a sudden did this?

09-09-2016, 04:34 PM	#2
battists Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 18,506 Blog Entries: 7	Ouch. This is a tough one. I would certainly bury him near the bottom of the lineup for the foreseeable future or even bench him if you can obtain a more serviceable backup. How is his morale? Maybe that is hurting his performance? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk __________________ Come check out my dynasty report, Funky Times!

09-09-2016, 10:21 PM	#7
oriolesmeep Minors (Double A) Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 103	Just to address a couple points here: In his best season, he was my offense. I had a bunch of young guys with minimal experience, and he carried my offense completely. He actually has better protection this year than he has had in his entire career. His power is still there. He's basically turned into a Mark Reynolds who doesn't walk and somehow strikes out even more. His injury rating is fragile, but he hasn't had a major injury that would sap his ratings. My scout has him at (2-8 scale) 4-6-7-5-2. OSA is a 4-5-6-5-2. I know it's a half season, but we're in a tight 3-way race for the division (no wild cards) and I have other holes to fill without this headache. I've tried benching him, but even this useless version of him is a huge improvement over both my backup outfielder and my prospect (who has also since forgotten how to hit AAA pitching). I could have my DH play right field, but I don't want to commit to that for the season because his defense is so poor. I don't have a platoon partner for him, unfortunately. I've scoured the waiver wire, but my outfield depth is awful and so is the rest of the league's. Last edited by oriolesmeep; 09-09-2016 at 10:22 PM.

09-10-2016, 12:53 AM	#9
Curve Ball Dave Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Chicago Posts: 2,271	Baseball stats are never predictive and players don't perform exactly the same from one time period to the next. They can have good streaks and bad. Baseball is also a game of adjustments. The players that stick around and have the longer careers are the ones that always adapt and adjust. What was working one week, month, or season may not work in the future. Pitchers figure out hitters and visa versa. It never stops changing, it's a constant battle. If your player has fallen off the cliff, it may that he is not making the adjustments he needs to stay successful. He's been in the league a while, opponents have the video and scouting and have figured out how to pitch to him. He was very strike out prone as it was, and the knowledge the league now has on him has only made it worse. Or, he may adjust and bounce back. That's baseball. __________________ "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.

09-10-2016, 02:18 PM	#12
Honorable_Pawn Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Tampa Bay Posts: 6,407	OOTP's-Law Now he will rebound and be great once again. __________________ PBA Quickstart for OOTP Background Images Collection All PBA games broadcast live on Steam.

09-09-2016, 05:52 PM	#4
BoomerSoonerAMH Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 111	I think there are a bunch of potential factors that could account for this situation with the information available. I'll throw out one scenario that includes several of these factors tied together with the thought that even if a couple of them are discredited, the general theme will be that any of these factors could still be in play. Also note, that I'm basing these theories on real life. While I'm confident OOTP does mirror most of these items, I can't say for certain that is the case. During the years this player rose to stardom he had solid protection behind him in the lineup and pitchers were less likely to pitch on the corners. Pitchers were also less aware of his power as he hadn't built the reputation of being a power hitter. If the lineup protection is taken away and pitchers don't fear the next batter, they worry less about walking your star player and don't serve up fastballs in the middle of the plate. Pitchers also come to learn that this guy will swing at anything, so the result is a steady stream of off-speed pitches and breaking balls in the dirt. Combine this with your star's lack of plate discipline and not only does he strike out a ton more, but he's also not hammering the ball like he was at the height of his performance. I could add more to this, but I'll summarize my position on this with saying that high strike out, low walk guys seem be susceptible to having sharper drop offs.

09-09-2016, 06:38 PM	#5
slugger922cubs Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 311	This happens in real life too. See Jason Heyward. If theres no decline in ratings just drop him in your order and platoon/rest him. Eventually he'll snap out of his funk and return to glory or the scouts will eventually realize hes lost it and his ratings will drop and it'll be clear where he lost his edge. Baseball is a cruel game like that. It happens way more than we realize because once players top producing or fall out of favor we just for get about them. In OOTP even if hes not playing is contract is still staring you right in the face.

09-10-2016, 12:32 AM	#8
MrBojangles All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2016 Location: low and inside Posts: 568	Great advice. I had a long-time star experience a similar performance decline - while his ratings remained strong. It lasted a full season. Early into the next season and he is back is fine form. Exact same time and line up both seasons. No explanation...

09-10-2016, 12:31 PM	#10
oriolesmeep Minors (Double A) Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 103	If there is a positive here, while looking at his splits trying to find something to go off of, I noticed that in high leverage (73 PAs), he's hitting .299/.342/.687, with 8 homers and 2 grand slams. So for all his ineptness, he's still a clutch hitter.

09-10-2016, 01:47 PM	#11
oriolesmeep Minors (Double A) Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 103	Well, he's no longer my problem. Managed to trade him and a pitching prospect for a couple of outfielders who, while without the same high ceiling, should be more consistent and not strike out anywhere near as often.

09-13-2016, 03:25 PM	#13
TheMaus2 All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: The OOTP Forums. Always. Posts: 1,949 Blog Entries: 16	Tim Lincecum anyone? __________________ I write a monthly newsletter on the Food Baseball Association. I also listen to music no one's ever heard of in hopes of looking cool and alternative.

09-13-2016, 03:34 PM	#14
JMDurron All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,262	His BA/OBP were so low and his Ks so high during the best year that you cited above that I think he may just have always been hovering on the edge of a contact skill collapse. It would only take a relatively small decline in BABIP to combine with low Eye/Avoid K ratings to make him a liability in (what I presume to be) a Modern MLB environment, given how prevalent Ks are in today's game. His multiple-year decline (not just a half season) indicates to me that he's just an early flameout guy, so good on you for trading him away when you could.

09-13-2016, 04:27 PM	#15
Cadieux39 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Sep 2015 Location: Canada Posts: 65	I had this happen to a player of mine. Could it be he is simply flaming out? I know way more about hockey than baseball and it just makes me think of Dany Heatley, or Alex Yashin. My player a 19 year old Rookie in 1946, had a rookie year hitting 40hr, .320 avg 7.6 War stat. From 19-23 he had WAR of 5 or better. won 3 batting titles. I figured this Rookie 1st basemen would be around for ever. So i signed him to a 8 year deal in 1950. He was 23. At 24 he missed half a season with an injury. His stats dropped. at 25 his stats again struggled 20hr, .280 at the sticks. at 26 and 27 he bounced back but not to his rookie levels. Then he simply flamed out. He was making 90k a year, the highest salary at that time on my team. But he was hitting .250 about 15-20 Hr a year. 28 was a rough year... At 29 his numbers kept being awful. So i benched him... His moral tanked, but he was no longer playing at the quality of an average starter. At 30 i was shopping him around, but could not trade him. So again this player only played half a year and thats because my new 1b player got hurt. At 31 his last year of the contract, i was able to ship him off with a prospect pitcher for a minor league player. I was desperate to trade him to save on his poor attitude and his 90k contract which by 1958 was 4th highest on my team. Since traded this player continues to struggle to hit +1 as a war stat on his new team. My guess, this guy simply flamed out. I use the Star system for player overall skill. He went from 5 star to 1.5 in 12 years he managed to hit 1500 times. Im guessing in 3 years from now he will not be playing baseball.