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Old 07-15-2019, 11:04 PM   #21
FancySkunk
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Originally Posted by DonkeyKongSr View Post
Go with this. It's based on millions of Perfect League at-bats.

STU 1.0
MOV 2.4
CON 1.5
To get more complicated with things, is the FIP projection used for OOTP19 still viable for 20? I've still been using it, but I wonder if things have shifted under the hood to make the old formula not as viable.
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Old 07-16-2019, 01:17 PM   #22
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It would be interesting to see if these pitcher weighting/scoring systems vary much in high average/low power environments vs low average/high power environments vs neutral environments etc. (Not that I am asking for someone to actually study this, mind you.) I'm also assuming that all of these analyses are basically boiling success down to one variable--FIP. But, there are cases where you can have deviations from FIP.

Logically, it would stand to reason that high stuff would be more important in a high batting average environment, but it depends on how the sim engine applies the factors to make the sausage (i.e. if the game has already decided out vs hit and simply allocates these pre-determined outs to K's or something else...or if the stuff rating is applied beforehand to determine whether a strikeout should occur in the first place).
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Old 07-16-2019, 01:27 PM   #23
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I just started this week a new team that aims at having pitchers with high stuff and good control with not a thought going to movement. My ace is Paul Dean who, after 7 starts is 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA. I expect that to change as the team moves up the ladder. For now I am 23-8.
Here´s the starting rotation:
P. Dean (101, 26, 76)
R. Branca (80, 39, 62)
H. Haddix (74, 30, 83) a lefty, how brave is that?
E. Kinder (79, 42, 60)
S. Maglie (70, 36, 68)

So far Haddix has the worst ERA at 4.08, but he´s 4-0. We shall see how this goes, but I think I´ll make it up to silver before I start getting shelled.
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Old 07-24-2019, 07:42 AM   #24
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Should the number of pitches matter on the calculation? The more type of pitches in their arsenal the better?


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Old 07-24-2019, 02:44 PM   #25
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I just started this week a new team that aims at having pitchers with high stuff and good control with not a thought going to movement. My ace is Paul Dean who, after 7 starts is 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA. I expect that to change as the team moves up the ladder. For now I am 23-8.
Here´s the starting rotation:
P. Dean (101, 26, 76)
R. Branca (80, 39, 62)
H. Haddix (74, 30, 83) a lefty, how brave is that?
E. Kinder (79, 42, 60)
S. Maglie (70, 36, 68)

So far Haddix has the worst ERA at 4.08, but he´s 4-0. We shall see how this goes, but I think I´ll make it up to silver before I start getting shelled.
It will be interesting to see how that works. My personal experience is that a high STUFF low MOV pitcher like a Bob Feller can be very effective through Gold but gets shelled at Diamond and is completely unusable in any role in Perfect.

I’ve found it almost impossible to compete in Perfect level without a starting staff of pitchers who cost $25k-$50k apiece, if not higher.
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Old 07-24-2019, 04:22 PM   #26
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Should the number of pitches matter on the calculation? The more type of pitches in their arsenal the better?


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I have yet to see any info on the effects of pitch type or number of pitches. If anyone has anything to add I would be very interested!
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Old 07-24-2019, 04:38 PM   #27
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It will be interesting to see how that works. My personal experience is that a high STUFF low MOV pitcher like a Bob Feller can be very effective through Gold but gets shelled at Diamond and is completely unusable in any role in Perfect.

I’ve found it almost impossible to compete in Perfect level without a starting staff of pitchers who cost $25k-$50k apiece, if not higher.
That´s what I found in 19 as well, and now I can verify that it is even more true in 20. Everything went swimmingly through iron, but now in bronze the competition has been more competitive than I anticipated, and we are currently treading water at one game over .500. The sad part is we are leading the league in runs scored, which tells you what the pitching has been like. The short of it is I´m getting shelled regularly and I am still in bronze. So much for making it to silver with these bums.

So far I´ve given up 85 home runs in 64 games. Wow! Paul Dean and Harvey Haddix are on a pace to give up close to 50 homers each. Dean´s ERA is well over 5.00, and Haddix had over 6.00 before I finally took him out of the rotation. Despite stuff of 74 and control of 83, a lefty with 30 movement is not a pretty sight. I hope he will soon become part of someone´s mission collection.
And those are the worst cases. With the other guys, Branca was not able to get out of iron in the rotation, but is holding his own now in the BP, while Kinder has been decent but Maglie has also been a disaster.
I brought in Saberhagen to replace Branca, and he´s okay despite his 51 MOV, and now I had to get serious and bring in 91 Greinke, so I guess that means the experiment is mercifully over.
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Old 07-24-2019, 04:42 PM   #28
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I have yet to see any info on the effects of pitch type or number of pitches. If anyone has anything to add I would be very interested!
That's already baked into the "stuff" rating. Adding more pitches makes it go up.
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Old 07-24-2019, 04:45 PM   #29
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That's already baked into the "stuff" rating. Adding more pitches makes it go up.
I had no idea, thanks for the info!
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Old 07-24-2019, 05:42 PM   #30
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The last time I ran a regression based on a relatively large amount of high level PT pitching data, the relative component values came out to be (normalized to Stuff for simplicity):

Stuff: 1x
Movement: 2.65x
Control: 1.5x

which basically agrees with DKSr's numbers, so.
First post from masterofgrond ever and he's alluding to an impressive database! I would like to know more.

I thought I remember hearing that GB% is baked into MOV rating. So, like, Lefty Grove and Rick Reuschel might have very similar MOV ratings, but they get there in dramatically different ways (Grove by keeping fly balls in the yard and Reuschel by preventing fly balls in the first place). Reuschel then, wants a strong IF while Grove wants a strong OF to support him.

Anyone know more about this? Like the forumula for MOV or whether, all defensive positions being equal and MOV rating being equal, a GB or FB pitcher is better?
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Old 07-25-2019, 12:04 AM   #31
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My personal experience is that a high STUFF low MOV pitcher like a Bob Feller can be very effective through Gold but gets shelled at Diamond and is completely unusable in any role in Perfect.
Which Feller card are you referencing? His 100 card has 74 movement, his 98 card has 70 movement, and his 92 card has 85 movement (and 21 control). The first two aren't world-beating, but I wouldn't say low.
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Old 07-25-2019, 01:01 AM   #32
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Which Feller card are you referencing? His 100 card has 74 movement, his 98 card has 70 movement, and his 92 card has 85 movement (and 21 control). The first two aren't world-beating, but I wouldn't say low.
Sorry, I was thinking of the Feller card I had in OOTP19, which I think was rated at 88.
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Old 07-25-2019, 08:31 PM   #33
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I have analyzed ten seasons of Perfect league data of about 68 total leagues through those ten seasons.

Here is a partial list of what I have learned:

1. The formula above is roughly correct... but only if the pitcher has at least 55 STU, 50 MOV, and 50 CTRL. There are significant penalties for each point that the player is below those figures in each stat: most important for CTRL, but also important in STU... but minimal in MOV. This is significant enough that a point in STU or CTRL below that pivot point is more than equivalent to a point in MOV above that pivot.

2. Also, even though gb pct factors into MOV, there is an independent effect of gb_pct : fly ball pitchers do better for the same MOV than ground ball pitchers do.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:42 AM   #34
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I have analyzed ten seasons of Perfect league data of about 68 total leagues through those ten seasons.

Here is a partial list of what I have learned:

1. The formula above is roughly correct... but only if the pitcher has at least 55 STU, 50 MOV, and 50 CTRL. There are significant penalties for each point that the player is below those figures in each stat: most important for CTRL, but also important in STU... but minimal in MOV. This is significant enough that a point in STU or CTRL below that pivot point is more than equivalent to a point in MOV above that pivot.
I found this to be very true especially with STU. I discovered it the hard way with the likes of Fred Newman and Dick Donovan. Yikes!
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Old 07-26-2019, 01:31 PM   #35
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The formula above is roughly correct... but only if the pitcher has at least 55 STU, 50 MOV, and 50 CTRL. There are significant penalties for each point that the player is below those figures in each stat.
Helps explain why my Texas Nolan Ryan was getting shelled in Perfect. High STU obviously, but MOV and CTRL below 50. I knew it was a bad card and was using it just for fun. But man, was it an awful card. A guaranteed loss each time he went out, with FIP in the stratosphere. Ended up going with a 4-man rotation and selling him to stop the bleeding.

Hope there's not a cool Texas Rangers mission that I miss because of it.
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Old 07-26-2019, 01:40 PM   #36
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Hey now - when my Senators team was the Texas Rangers, I had to use that card (since the Rangers had very few other pitching options). It was pretty variable but in the lower leagues it put in good performances some years. Would be pretty ugly in probably Diamond and up though.
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Old 07-26-2019, 05:28 PM   #37
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How the pitch ratings factor in to all of this, or can they just be ignored?
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Old 07-26-2019, 05:41 PM   #38
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How the pitch ratings factor in to all of this, or can they just be ignored?
We don't think they do anything except affect the Stuff rating. More pitches is good, especially for a starter. Higher quality pitches is good, especially for a reliever. If a starter converts to a reliever it'll be more beneficial to his Stuff to have a couple hot pitches than having a full arsenal of yellow ones.

Someone on the forums once said that a knuckleball pitcher can change things up, but I don't know if that's true.
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Old 07-26-2019, 05:42 PM   #39
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How the pitch ratings factor in to all of this, or can they just be ignored?
According to chazzycat´s post above, the pitch ratings are incorporated into the stuff rating.
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Old 07-26-2019, 06:33 PM   #40
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They are definitely included in the stuff rating...in the main game you can edit players and you will see stuff go up simply by adding extra (mediocre) pitches.

I think it only really matters though, if you are considering converting starters to relief. Stuff is calculated different for starters vs. relievers...something like only the top 2 pitches benefit relievers, whereas starters benefit from more. So if you convert a guy with 5 mediocre pitches, he will just get a small bump, but if you convert a guy with 2 outstanding pitches, he will get a larger bump.
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