Goals being scored on the first or second shot?

[joeyjoejoe]

I'm not sure if this is just my season(s) or what, but it seems incredibly common that the first or second shot taken by my or the opponent's team results in a goal. This only happens when I play the game (not when I sim it).

The remainder of the game may have one or two more goals through the rest of the three periods, but for some reason there is an unlikely high probability of a goal occurring super early in the game.

The three screenshots here are from three consecutive games. Always a goal from the first or second shots...

Definitely not realistic. Am I doing something wrong? It's not always the opponent that scores first. My team does the same thing.

[Sebastian Palkowski]

There is nothing in the code that would force such behavior and I can´t remember anyone else reporting such thing. If it continues to be a thing in your save it would be interesting to look into your save for a pattern that might cause this.

[joeyjoejoe]

Didn't realize I was uploading screenshots from a potato.

These are subsequent games.

[Sebastian Palkowski]

Hard to tell. If you continue to see this behavior it might be good to look into your save to check it out.

[Senko1291]

I know I have noticed this in certain saves as well. Only when I play the game not when I quick sim it. I always thought it was a fluke but interesting to see someone else is uncovering the same thing.

[joeyjoejoe]

Yep, only happens when I play the game. At the end of the third period it might be 1-1 with 30-40 shots for each team but there's an incredible likelihood that first goal for either team took place in the first minute or so.

[Sebastian Palkowski]

Both, simulating and watching/playing, use the same engine. I will run a few games here and see if I can see it as well but afaik nobody from the Beta Team (or Jeff) ever mentioned it.

[Chomps]

I have seen this problem also. Glad you are looking into the issue.

[eldur00]

I'm going to sim a month in my season tonight. I'll post the results. I understand a month is a small sample size but maybe it will help.

I think I might have seen a lot of goals scored early in the game before but did not pay close attention to it.

[JeffR]

I watched the start of 30 games in the match engine (2016-17 NHL, using play, not simming.) So, 60 first shots (by each team) and 60 second shots, 120 total shots. 14 goals scored, so .883 save %. Just slightly lower than expected, but well within the margin of error given the small sample size and not indicative of any obvious problem. (And only 5 of the 14 were on first shots, so the save percentage there was actually better than average.)

Consider the math around the first two shots of the game: Around 10% of shots on goal are going to result in goals in most leagues. So it's not going to be uncommon to see the first or second shot on a team go in - it'll typically happen to a specific team about every 5 games, and every third game will see at least one team score on one of its first two shots. The chances of one team's first or second shot scoring in 3 consecutive games, as in the first post, would be a little under 1 in 25 - I don't think that's even enough to call it "rare"; most teams would see it happen multiple times in an NHL-length season.

It's really about perception more than anything. When you're watching real games, they're spaced days apart. In the game, though, you're seeing them minutes apart. So patterns become a little more apparent in the latter, even when they also exist in the former.

[joeyjoejoe]

Originally Posted by JeffR

Consider the math around the first two shots of the game: Around 10% of shots on goal are going to result in goals in most leagues. So it's not going to be uncommon to see the first or second shot on a team go in - it'll typically happen to a specific team about every 5 games, and every third game will see at least one team score on one of its first two shots. The chances of one team's first or second shot scoring in 3 consecutive games, as in the first post, would be a little under 1 in 25 - I don't think that's even enough to call it "rare"; most teams would see it happen multiple times in an NHL-length season.

I understand your math on it, but I think you've got some bias in the sample size. True, 10% of shots result in goals, but not 10% of first shots result in goals. Shots on the power play have a higher percentage of going in than even strength or shorthanded shots.

If a team were scored upon the first or second shot of every fifth game, that would mean that there were on average 16 games for every NHL team where this scenario happened. Way too high.

Less than 1/3 of all goals in the NHL were scored in the first period, and of those first period goals only a fraction of those goals were goals on the first or second shot.

Here's the citation on the per period goals: NHL Stats

[joeyjoejoe]

Btw I can upload my save if that would help.

Just fyi on replicating this: I'm playing the game and then simming the end of the first period.

[Sebastian Palkowski]

At some point I will update my PbP database to put out the data for goals on first/second shots but just for fun I quickly looked up the first 5 Blackhawks games and in 3 of them they scored on the first 2 shots on goal.

[eldur00]

Originally Posted by Sebastian Palkowski

At some point I will update my PbP database to put out the data for goals on first/second shots but just for fun I quickly looked up the first 5 Blackhawks games and in 3 of them they scored on the first 2 shots on goal.

Is there a way to look at the PbP data for simmed games ? I'd like to see if I can contribute but I don't play out games. I ran a month of my season yesterday and there are many early 1st period goals scored, but I can't tell on which shot (amount) it was.

Of course I'm playing in 1992-1993 with first year Sens so data might just be a reflection of how horrible my team is