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Old 10-03-2019, 09:33 PM   #1
stevem810
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The Post Season in OOTP

My perception is that too often in the post-season in my OOTP leagues an overwhelming better team will lose to a team that statistically is nowhere near as good (I'm referring to 7 game series). Even when the team with the better record has a 'playoff built team' (Excellent 1-2 SP's, strong pen, MVP type batter, etc). Often times they get swept. This doesn't seem to take place nearly as often in real baseball.

Perceptions without data I realize are not strong arguments for making a case for the above. So, consider this an inquiry more than a 'complaint'. I'm wondering if the OOTP community finds my perception accurate, or not. I'm also wondering how OOTP leadership looks at this issue. Is there any type of 'built in' advantage to the higher seeded team? If not, is it a viable consideration?

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Old 10-03-2019, 09:37 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevem810 View Post
My perception is that too often in the post-season in my OOTP leagues an overwhelming better team will lose to a team that statistically is nowhere near as good (I'm referring to 7 game series). Even when the team with the better record has a 'playoff built team' (Excellent 1-2 SP's, strong pen, MVP type batter, etc). Often times they get swept. This doesn't seem to take place nearly as often in real baseball.

Perceptions without data I realize are not strong arguments for making a case for the above. So, consider this an inquiry more than a 'complaint'. I'm wondering if the OOTP community finds my perception accurate, or not. I'm also wondering how OOTP leadership looks at this issue. Is there any type of 'built in' advantage to the higher seeded team? If not, is it a viable consideration?

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I find the Wild Card teams often sweep - let alone, beat - the #1 seed in the Divisional Series round more than is typically seen. Otherwise, I can't say I've noticed anything, but that's also because I haven't been looking.
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Old 10-04-2019, 09:12 AM   #3
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I do find playoffs more challenging and at time frustrating. 4 Division titles and lost in AL playoffs every year. The last - My 100 win, 7 All-Star laden lineup played 12 close games only to lose in AL championship. Fun but aggravating.
Finally won afterwards.
Not just ne though. Dodgers had been in playoffs like 13 straight years. 1 title.
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Old 10-04-2019, 09:31 AM   #4
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Confirmation bias 101. Everyone remembers when their heavy favorite loses but not when they when as expected

What is "too often?" What is "overwhelmingly better?" No two playoffs teams are ever that far apart in baseball unless you have done some silly stuff with your league settings, and the playoffs are a crapshoot. Just look through past MLB postseasons and it is filled with #1 and #2 seeds losing.

Of course there is no "built-in" advantage for the higher seeded team outside the real stuff like having the pitching rotation set up better, playing at home, etc. And obviously there shouldn't be.
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Old 10-05-2019, 10:14 AM   #5
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Having the best record has always seemed to be the kiss of death.

But that said, you look at what happens IRL and you see that real life is often stranger and more unpredictable than what happens with our sims.
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Old 10-05-2019, 11:37 AM   #6
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For example, 65 years ago RL had post-season results that could only be the product of a serious bug. A team that finished 111-43 obviously couldn't be swept 4-0 by one that couldn't win even 100 games in the regular season.
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Old 10-10-2019, 08:49 AM   #7
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Considering what happened in the two NLDC series, no one can say the results in OOTP are "unrealistic"
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Old 10-10-2019, 12:01 PM   #8
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Dodgers last night. The end. There should be a separate forum for bad beat threads like this
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Old 10-10-2019, 03:14 PM   #9
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So far in my 19 year history with my fictional league, the team that has finished the regular season with the best record has gone on to win the championship only 3 of 19 times(15.8%). This is with a 8 team playoff format. It's actually happened 2 times in the past 3 seasons, so prior to that it only happened 1 time in 16 playoffs (6.25%)


(Where teams who won the championship finished in the regular season)

1st place finish in regular season - # of championships won (3)
2nd place finish in regular season - # of championships won (6)
3rd place finish in regular season - # of championships won (6)
4th place finish in regular season - # of championships won (1)
5th place finish in regular season - # of championships won (0)
6th place finish in regular season - # of championships won (1)
7th place finish in regular season - # of championships won (1)
8th place finish in regular season - # of championships won (1)

So even though 1st placed teams seem to struggle a bit in the playoffs, teams that finish in the top 3 in the standings go on to win the championship (79%) of the time.

Last edited by krownroyal83; 10-10-2019 at 03:16 PM.
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Old 10-10-2019, 06:09 PM   #10
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The top 2 seeds in the NL both lost in the NLDS, and the best team in baseball is on the ropes against the Wild Card Rays. After witnessing this, I dont think I'll ever question what happens in a OOTP playoff sim.
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Old 10-10-2019, 06:51 PM   #11
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Quote:
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The top 2 seeds in the NL both lost in the NLDS, and the best team in baseball is on the ropes against the Wild Card Rays. After witnessing this, I dont think I'll ever question what happens in a OOTP playoff sim.

Word.
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Old 10-10-2019, 06:59 PM   #12
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My 1977 Texas Rangers won 121 games (MLB record), and lost in the ALCS (1st round in the 70s) against the Orioles. Pretty salty about that. But it also happened to the Cubs and Mariners in real life.
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Old 10-11-2019, 02:41 PM   #13
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Is there any download just for the 2019 playoff teams?
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Old 11-11-2019, 07:47 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krownroyal83 View Post
So far in my 19 year history with my fictional league, the team that has finished the regular season with the best record has gone on to win the championship only 3 of 19 times(15.8%). This is with a 8 team playoff format. It's actually happened 2 times in the past 3 seasons, so prior to that it only happened 1 time in 16 playoffs (6.25%)


(Where teams who won the championship finished in the regular season)

1st place finish in regular season - # of championships won (3)
2nd place finish in regular season - # of championships won (6)
3rd place finish in regular season - # of championships won (6)
4th place finish in regular season - # of championships won (1)
5th place finish in regular season - # of championships won (0)
6th place finish in regular season - # of championships won (1)
7th place finish in regular season - # of championships won (1)
8th place finish in regular season - # of championships won (1)

So even though 1st placed teams seem to struggle a bit in the playoffs, teams that finish in the top 3 in the standings go on to win the championship (79%) of the time.
Thanks for taking the time to share your post season data. Very interesting to see.
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Old 11-11-2019, 09:01 AM   #15
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Sometimes, it's just the team riding the hot streak going in. Examples IRL, would be the 2019 Nationals, 2006 Cardinals, and 1997 Marlins.

Often, in my sims, I'll start to cringe when I see my team that's been leading its division all season long, start to slide and coast backwards into the playoffs. That's usually a good indicator of an early exit.

For example, I had a team that had already won 100 games and a 22 game lead in the NL East, only to lose every single game in the final two weeks. That team took 5 games to win the NLDS (losing game 1, further fueling the cringe), only to get swept in the NLCS by the same Brewers team we had swept in the regular season.

Was it fatigue? Probably. Was it a statistical anomally? Maybe. Or maybe, it was just a hot team, going against a cold one.
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Old 11-12-2019, 02:26 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krownroyal83 View Post
So far in my 19 year history with my fictional league, the team that has finished the regular season with the best record has gone on to win the championship only 3 of 19 times(15.8%).
In the twenty playoffs since 2000, the team with the best record has won 4 or 5 times (depending on how you count it):

2007: Red Sox (had the same record as the Indians, who lost in the ALCS)
2009: Yankees
2013: Red Sox (had the same record as the Cardinals, who lost in the WS, so regardless of which team won the team with the best record would have won the series)
2016: Cubs
2018: Red Sox
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Old 11-12-2019, 02:42 PM   #17
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It is also worth mentioning that W-L records are heavily affected by the quality of Divisional opponents. Since all MLB teams aren't playing each other an equal amount of times, W-L record might not always be the best measure of who is best.
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Old 11-12-2019, 04:58 PM   #18
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It is also worth mentioning that W-L records are heavily affected by the quality of Divisional opponents. Since all MLB teams aren't playing each other an equal amount of times, W-L record might not always be the best measure of who is best.

And even within a division teams don't play the same inter league opponents (eg: the Cubs always play the White Sox while the Pirates may not).
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Old 11-12-2019, 09:11 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevem810 View Post
Thanks for taking the time to share your post season data. Very interesting to see.

Yeah it's a bit interesting to see. Oh and since I posted that I've finished another season in my fictional league where the team I manage finished 1st in the league for only the 2nd time in 20 seasons. And guess what? We didn't win. We lost to the 4th place team in the semi's who went on to win their first title.
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Old 11-13-2019, 04:47 AM   #20
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I remember reading in Astroball that in any playoff series the win expectancy is, at best, 57%. I'm not good at figuring out the probability of the #1 team not winning over x amount of series but I doubt its low enough to make this seem troubling.
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