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OOTP 20 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 11-08-2019, 10:52 AM   #21
Jeffield
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I think you may be on to something with your trading theory of only trading what the computer offers because i started with the 2019 orioles and with trading set to very hard i still managed to improve my minor leagues from 28th ranked to 10th by the july trade deadline. Im going to use your idea going forward but, i guess leaving the trade difficulty and amount of trading set to normal would be okay for this.
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Old 11-16-2019, 02:35 AM   #22
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My experience is that I get lots of trade offers, especially if I put in what I want into the team needs screen. Now, most of the trade offers are terrible, but the high volume means that a few are worthwhile every year. And they are interesting offers - I rarely get an offer where I am ripping off the computer. I would estimate that I "win" the trade 2/3 of the time, but I "lose" 1/3 of the time.

Sometimes I get tempted to shop around. For example, the Pirates right now in my league keep drafting CF, so they have Jim Edmonds, Kenny Lofton, Brady Anderson, Johnny Damon, and Ellis Burks. Since Edmonds and Lofton can only play CF, one always sits, even though those are probably the top 2 CF in baseball. I'd love to have one, but I am wary of poking around and getting a superstar for a bargain price. That's not in the spirit of the game for me.
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Old 11-16-2019, 04:21 AM   #23
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I think maybe your trade settings and/or AI settings are flawed, as you've already recorded 2 instances of teams uselessly stockpiling players that they could have traded to other teams to help their own team get better.
But the project sounds interesting.
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Old 11-18-2019, 02:38 AM   #24
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?? What settings do you suggest are flawed? The AI always drafts the best available player, regardless of position, which is the right strategy for real life, but works more awkwardly in a league where players go right to the majors. How do you have your settings to avoid this problem?

Typically teams that do this trade the extraneous player after a bit, but in this case it just hasn't happened yet.
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Old 12-04-2019, 01:59 AM   #25
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Players with 700 SB: Part 1

Paul Molitor: 792
Technically active, Molitor hasnít been in the majors since 1992. His bat still plays, but his only position is DH, which doesnít exist in RL. Molitor has had a productive but strange career. He has split his time fairly evenly between 2B, 3B, and SS - he actually has more time at SS than any other position. Drafted by the Tigers, he started out at 3B, where he was an average fielder. At age 28 they moved him to SS to make room for Steve Buecheleís golden glove. At shortstop Molitor was well below average. In 1989, at age 32, he moved primarily to 2B to make room for Ozzie Guillen at shortstop. Here he also struggled, as his defensive skills had eroded significantly. He now plays for the Pirates, or at least Pittsburghís AAA affiliate.

Molitor has had a good bat his entire career. He is a career .295 hitter, with good doubles power, and obviously good speed. He won the 1982 MVP award when he hit .341 with 49 doubles, 85 SB. But most years he has been a good hitter with great speed and mediocre or worse defense. Heís toast at this point, but he will be heading to the HOF as a mostly borderline candidate soon.

Tommy Harper: 781
A poor manís Paul Molitor, Harper also got put at positions he was not ideally suited to play. He spent the 1960ís in Cleveland, playing some 3B but mostly CF, where he was a terrible defender. The bat was solid, but the defense kept him from being very productive.

Traded to San Diego in time for the 1970 season, he spent the rest of his career as a Padre, mostly playing 3B, with a bit of corner OF. His 3B defense started out average but deteriorated as he got older, forcing the move to LF/RF. His hitting stayed solid in his 30s, maybe even improved a bit. His best seasons with the bat were probably in his mid-30s. Unlike Molitor, he didnít do anything especially well with the bat, but didnít have any glaring weaknesses either. He was very durable, and consistently stole bases, so even though he never surpassed 64 SB, he accumulated a lot over his career, holding the record from 1981-1992. He does, however, still hold the record for times caught stealing at 429, 71 more than the next most. Harper was a good player, but not close to being a HOFer.

Sherry Magee: 773
A deadball slugger in real life, this Sherry Magee was a slightly lesser version of the real one. He spent his career in Washington playing RF. Although his hitting stats donít look impressive, considering the era they are solid. But for the most part, he was Tommy Harper, accumulating stats over a long career, including a lot of SB. He held the record for 60 years, which isnít too shabby. He was better than Harper on both offense and defense, so he is a low level HOF candidate, but just not impressive enough to me to get inducted. This paragraph is not super exciting, and neither was Magee.

Ty Cobb: 733
He played a long time and got a lot of hits.
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Old 01-13-2020, 08:13 PM   #26
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Enjoyed reading
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Old 01-17-2020, 02:31 AM   #27
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The 700 SB Club, Part II

It's been a while...life has been busy. Probably will stay that way for a few months. I should at least finish that last post...

George Burns: 731
This is the OF George Burns that played mostly for the Giants in real life. This RL George Burns played for Cleveland, and made the HOF, thanks to some serious hitting. He hit .323 lifetime, including a couple of seasons in the .390s. He was also patient, walking 110 times in his best season. Add the 2500 hits and 1300 walks together, and you get a guy that was on base a lot, giving him ample opportunities to run.

Burns also had some power, so overall he was a well-above-average hitter. He didnít get caught often either, so his baserunning added quite a bit of value. He won the MVP in 1922, hitting .391/.495/.583 on the season. He stole 56 bases that year, which is pretty average for him for a full season.

Sandy Alomar, Sr.: 728
In case you donít know, the real Sandy Alomar was a *very* light hitting 2B for a number of teams in the 60ís and 70ís. This Sandy Alomar improved his talents enough to be a roughly league average hitter. That, combined with his speed and defense, made him a valuable player. Nothing great, but certainly a starter.

Alomar did not seem destined for a productive career. He was drafted in the 3rd round of the 1965 draft, which is never a good sign - very few drafts have quality players that late. He spent his first two seasons mostly playing in AAA and being released and signed by various teams. In 1967 he was signed by Detroit, and improved his hitting abilities. In 1968 he led the AL in runs, SB, and plate appearances. Which leads to Alomarís defining characteristic: his durability. His nickname is the Iron Pony for a reason - he rarely got injured until late in his career, much like Andre Dawson. He would continue to be a solid hitter, good baserunner, and excellent defender at both 2B and SS for many years. He played until age 42 in 1986, nearly overlapping with his sons. In addition to the steals, he had 2500 hits and 1300 runs scored in his long career. He ended up with 53 WAR, nearly a Hall of Fame level performance. At this point, he looks to be the best Alomar instead of the worst, though his sons arenít done playing yet.

Heinie Groh: 728
You know Groh as the HOF SS and leadoff hitter for the Philadelphia Aís of the teens and twenties. He was good, even for the fifth best position player on his own team.

The guys in the 600s are all deadball era players, more or less. Jimmy Sheckard, Topsy Hartsel, and Larry Schafly are all from that time, and Braggo Roth played just after that time period. The next modern guy is Larry Lintz, who was discussed earlier. Every other player above him on the list had at least twice as many plate appearances, and was also a much better hitter.

The next active player on the list is Juan Samuel, with 511 SB. He wonít make 700, not because he is slowing down, but because the rest of his game has become so weak that he wonít play enough. Gerald Young, on the other hand, is only 29 years old, has 507 SB, and is good enough to play for a while longer. He is an excellent CF defender, has a high OBP so he has plenty of opportunities, and is at his peak now. He stole 93 bases in 1993 for the Dodgers, his second season of over 90.

[Note: I wrote this early in the 1994 season. That season is now complete. Samuel has 517 SB, rising slowly. Young on the other hand is now at 574, #14 all-time. He just stole 97, so he should be able to pad that total quite a bit. Another solid year gets him in the top 10, and if he hits enough to get playing time, he might challenge the leaders.]
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Old 01-19-2020, 02:18 PM   #28
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.400 Seasons

Only twice has a hitter hit above .400 for a season. But this turns out to be a slightly more interesting topic than it might seem, at least to me. The big twist here is that both of these seasons were well over .400 - in fact both were over .420! Nobody ever hit between .400-.420, but two guys hit over that.

Max Carey: .429 (1922)
Max Careyís 1922 season still holds the record for batting average, hits, and singles in a season. He had 247 hits that year, out of which 195 were singles. That still left room for 31 doubles, 18 triples, and 3 HR, and he added 59 walks. He slashed .429/.482/.561. In his Hall of Fame career, Carey had more than 3000 hits, over 550 SB, scored more than 1400 runs and drove in more than 1100. He played for the Phillies for two years, then was traded to the White Sox, but sadly I donít know who the Phillies got. Surely it wasnít enough.

Paul Waner: .421 (1934)
Paul Waner was a better hitter than Carey, though without the steals, and playing RF instead of CF. And unlike Careyís year in 1922, Wanerís 1934 season was deemed worthy of the MVP, the first of three straight MVPs for Waner. Interestingly, both players were in their thirties when they hit .400 - Carey was 32, Waner was 31. Waner had 34 doubles and 21 home runs that year. He added 96 walks, and had an overall OPS of 1.142, which probably relates to the MVP.

Waner was later inducted into the HOF. Like Carey he started his career with the Phillies, but was traded to the Yankees before his MVP seasons. Maybe Philadelphia's GM wasnít making such great decisions?
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Old 01-20-2020, 04:48 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 3fbrown View Post
?? What settings do you suggest are flawed? The AI always drafts the best available player, regardless of position, which is the right strategy for real life, but works more awkwardly in a league where players go right to the majors. How do you have your settings to avoid this problem?

Typically teams that do this trade the extraneous player after a bit, but in this case it just hasn't happened yet.
I haven't found any one particular thing to change in the settings, and I've only made it thru 1 flawed random debut season myself. The cause may simply be the AIs drafting the most talented player on the board based on whatever scouting values you are using. I know when I am drafting, I follow a similar strategy -- best available athlete -- but I then look to trade my largess to fill a position I need.
Maybe you can consider loosening up your AI trading frequency a bit.
Although in the one instance you mentioned, most of the time a CF is transportable to a corner OF slot; but if they are simply rotting on the bench, maybe it's a flaw in the game's AI engine.
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Old 01-20-2020, 08:34 PM   #30
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I really enjoyed reading this. You have a knack for writing. Hope the busy life is all good "busy". I look forward to future updates.
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Old 01-24-2020, 08:31 AM   #31
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Thanks, 3fbrown! (PS - a fan of Three Finger Brown myself, from playing APBA way back when I was a kid and my older brothers had bought some old-time great teams, the 1906 Cubs and the 1922 St Louis Browns). Anyway, I saw this:

I usually let teams keep their historical nicknames. But there is one exception - in the first decade of the 20th century, Cleveland named themselves the Naps after their best player, Napoleon Lajoie. But in Replay League, he spent his entire career with the Cardinals. Cleveland canít name themselves after someone on another team! It turns out that their star player at that point in time was future Hall of Fame pitcher Noodles Hahn. So, they became the Cleveland Noodles for a time.

I am doing a similar replay to yours in that I am starting in 1901. When Lajoie came into my league, he ended up on the Phillies, so I changed their name to the Philadelphia Naps. During the 1907 season, the Phillies traded him to (!) the Cleveland Bronchos, so the Phillies went back to being the Phillies, and the Bronchos became the Naps :-)
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Old 01-26-2020, 02:02 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by tomnov View Post
I haven't found any one particular thing to change in the settings, and I've only made it thru 1 flawed random debut season myself. The cause may simply be the AIs drafting the most talented player on the board based on whatever scouting values you are using. I know when I am drafting, I follow a similar strategy -- best available athlete -- but I then look to trade my largess to fill a position I need.
Maybe you can consider loosening up your AI trading frequency a bit.
Although in the one instance you mentioned, most of the time a CF is transportable to a corner OF slot; but if they are simply rotting on the bench, maybe it's a flaw in the game's AI engine.
They did move some of those guys to corner OF - Burks and Anderson are there now. But Edmonds and Lofton were CF only. I will say that the AI is far too reluctant to teach guys new positions. Often there will be a player (I am thinking of another long-time Pirate here, Howard Johnson) that can hit, but plays their position so poorly that they aren't worth much. Teaching an infielder like that to play 1st base would solve the problem, but they don't do it.

By the way, Kenny Lofton finally was traded in 1995, sadly not to me.

Last edited by 3fbrown; 01-26-2020 at 02:04 AM. Reason: typo
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Old 01-26-2020, 02:08 AM   #33
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.400: Honorable mentions

So we have two men hitting over .420, and nobody hitting between .400-.420, but we have six seasons in the .390s, by four players.

Honorable mention:

Harry Heilmann hit .398 in 1930, falling just two hits short of being over .400. He was 35 years old, but it was 1930, which always helps the offense.

In 1924, Shoeless Joe Jackson hit .396. He was 34 years old at the time. Like Heilmann, he played for those big-hitting Aís teams of the era.

In 1924 and 1925, Jack Fournier hit .394 and .392 respectively. He was a Yankee, though he retired a few years before they got Waner. These were Fournierís age 34 and 35 seasons, which seems to be a bit of a trend here. In fact, he only had two more seasons after this before he retired, though he still hit over .300 during his final season.

George Burns (the OF) hit .391 in 1922 and .392 in 1925. A lifetime Cleveland IndianÖif you closely read the above entries, you will notice that all of these players were in the AL, so he would not have won the batting title either year. He was the guy that beat out Max Carey for the 1922 MVP though, maybe because he also walked 110 times, or because he added 18 HR, or because he stole 56 bases. Like all the other guys I have mentioned so far, Burns is in the HOF.
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Old 02-01-2020, 02:53 AM   #34
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A different kind of honorable mention

Fred ďShoemakerĒ Nicholson was a 25-year-old rookie outfielder on the 1920 Red Sox. He played part-time, getting only 291 PA, but hit .401! As far as I know, nobody in RL history had hit .400 in a short season like this before. He clearly did not qualify for the batting title, but it was noteworthy nonetheless.

Six years later, now age 31 and playing for the New York Giants, Nicholson did it again. He was still playing part-time, as his defense was pretty bad, but his hitting had never been anything but excellent. In 429 PA, Nicholson hit .408, now the second time he had hit over .400 in a season too brief to qualify for the batting title. Still, hitting over .400 in over 400 PA is nothing to sneeze at.

Nicholson played through the 1934 season, when he was 39, but mostly as a part-timer. He only played enough to qualify for the batting title twice, in 1928 and 1929. He hit .359 in 1928, and for his career hit .341 in about 4700 plate appearances. I am not sure why he never played more. It was partly because of the defense of course, but when you hit .341 for your career, weak defense can be forgiven. He may have also been platooned (he hit right-handed), and he definitely pinch hit frequently, as he always had over 100 games played, even when he had under 200 PA.
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