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Old 12-13-2019, 12:10 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pirates View Post
"When you don't put the ball in play, you have no chance to get on base. Absolutely none, unless the catcher can't catch," Detroit manager Ron Gardenhire says. "The point of baseball is to get on base. I don't think that will ever change.
That was in the article.
Right. I said that there was one quote from one person in the article that said it, but that is not what the article as a whole says. The article, as a whole, doesn't say that more runs would be scored if power hitters inside outed against the shift. It says the game is less interesting.
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Old 12-13-2019, 12:18 PM   #22
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According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the team that scored first in 2009 won 66.4 percent of the games played. Since 2000, it falls into a 64-67 percent win ratio.

Could not find anything more current. It helps if you can put the ball in play.
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Old 12-13-2019, 12:51 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Pirates View Post
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the team that scored first in 2009 won 66.4 percent of the games played. Since 2000, it falls into a 64-67 percent win ratio.

Could not find anything more current. It helps if you can put the ball in play.
Your first paragraph does not support your second one in any way. Yes, scoring first gives a better chance of winning, but that applies whether you had 2 Ks, 1 BB and a HR in the inning, or whether you blooped a single, stole second, moved the runner to third by hitting behind him and then scored him on a sac fly.

The idea of moving towards power and accepting the additional strikeouts is about the best way to score runs. It is all about efficiency and the data seems to show that waiting for home runs is more efficient than small ball, station to station. I wish it wasn't true.

I much prefer seeing fielders running after batted balls, runners stealing bases, managers calling for the hit and run, batters choking up with 2 strikes on them. I hate seeing games where the primary action is batters walking back to the dugout or trotting slowly around the bases while fielders might as well be looking for rocks to kick around like a 5 year old playing T-ball. Unfortunately, I think the numbers bear out that a more boring game is more efficient.
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Old 12-13-2019, 12:57 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boomcoach View Post
Your first paragraph does not support your second one in any way. Yes, scoring first gives a better chance of winning, but that applies whether you had 2 Ks, 1 BB and a HR in the inning, or whether you blooped a single, stole second, moved the runner to third by hitting behind him and then scored him on a sac fly.

The idea of moving towards power and accepting the additional strikeouts is about the best way to score runs. It is all about efficiency and the data seems to show that waiting for home runs is more efficient than small ball, station to station. I wish it wasn't true.

I much prefer seeing fielders running after batted balls, runners stealing bases, managers calling for the hit and run, batters choking up with 2 strikes on them. I hate seeing games where the primary action is batters walking back to the dugout or trotting slowly around the bases while fielders might as well be looking for rocks to kick around like a 5 year old playing T-ball. Unfortunately, I think the numbers bear out that a more boring game is more efficient.
You have made some excellent points. Thank you.
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Old 12-13-2019, 02:01 PM   #25
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You must be very young if you believe that. Putting the Ball in Play is the key to winning.
Read this article:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...lls-in-trouble
Not making outs is the key to victory. Pretty sure there aren't many offensive stats out there that have a higher correlation to wins than on base percentage. Also, I'm 50 so I have some experience with baseball prior to 2000.
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Old 12-13-2019, 02:03 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pirates View Post
"When you don't put the ball in play, you have no chance to get on base. Absolutely none, unless the catcher can't catch," Detroit manager Ron Gardenhire says. "The point of baseball is to get on base. I don't think that will ever change.
That was in the article.
And he's wrong unless baseball outlawed walks and HBP recently. If the game was truly about "putting the ball in play" then Ricky Henderson wouldn't be considered one of the all time greats. Has any hitter in history put a smaller percentage of balls pitched into play than him? Maybe but my assumption is that his rate of balls put in play would not fall anywhere near the top or even in the middle of the pack. Then you also have guys like Barry Bonds, another all time great who did not care about "putting the ball in play". Look at how many walks he took. Was he just trying to slap at the ball to make the defense work? Putting the ball in play worked back when defense sucked. Today you need to put it in play with power and if you can't get a pitch that lets you do that then you are better off working a walk than hitting some weak, defensive grounder.

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Old 12-13-2019, 02:14 PM   #27
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Not making outs is the key to victory. Pretty sure there aren't many offensive stats out there that have a higher correlation to wins than on base percentage. Also, I'm 50 so I have some experience with baseball prior to 2000.
I'm in my mid 50's and grew up going to Forbes Field to watch Clemente Play. My historical baseball knowledge is pretty strong.
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Old 12-13-2019, 03:11 PM   #28
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I'm in my mid 50's and grew up going to Forbes Field to watch Clemente Play. My historical baseball knowledge is pretty strong.
I think a baseball site is the only place a I know where strutting old fart credentials is a thing. 60 year old Reds fan here, incredibly jealous that you got watch Clemente in person. Always one of my favorite players.

Watching the Big Red Machine in the 70s was one of the first times I questioned the value of Wins in evaluating pitchers. Reds pitchers won the most games in 75 and 76, but no one would have called them the best staff in baseball. Nascent Sabermetrician maybe!
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Old 12-13-2019, 03:18 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pirates View Post
"When you don't put the ball in play, you have no chance to get on base. Absolutely none, unless the catcher can't catch," Detroit manager Ron Gardenhire says. "The point of baseball is to get on base. I don't think that will ever change.
That was in the article.
The first team to have every batter bunt will go undefeated!!!!

And Juan Pierre was one of the greatest hitters of the steroid era!

Last edited by CBeisbol; 12-13-2019 at 03:20 PM.
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Old 12-13-2019, 03:22 PM   #30
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The first team to have every batter bunt will go undefeated!!!!

And Juan Pierre was one of the greatest hitters of the steroid era!
That team would be my nightmare.
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Old 12-13-2019, 03:24 PM   #31
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That team would be my nightmare.
But think of all the glorious glorious contact!!!
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Old 12-13-2019, 03:29 PM   #32
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Mike Trout 15% K's and 21% K's in his career. So, only made contact about 64% of the time.

Juan Pierre 6% BB rate 6% K rate. Made contact about 88% of the time.

Ergo, Pierre gave his team more chances to win!!!

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Old 12-13-2019, 05:27 PM   #33
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FiveThirtyEight did a piece early this year about a sharp increase in the percentage of batted balls that are foul. That ties in with working the count to make games longer. I don't think we have the historical pitch counts we need to study this (I checked Denny McLain's game log for 1968 on baseball-reference, and nope), but I think it's fair to say 200 total pitches doesn't get you as deep into a game as it once did.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...talking-about/
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Old 12-13-2019, 08:13 PM   #34
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As the average value of a home run declines toward 1, teams will be more interested in getting players on base.
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Old 12-13-2019, 08:38 PM   #35
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If the pitcher has to face min 3 batters then those 3 hitters can't be pinch hit for either.
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Old 12-13-2019, 11:38 PM   #36
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Without having to think as often about changing pitchers, managers have less to do. Cut their pay... as was done after the DH gave them less to do...
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Old 12-14-2019, 12:18 AM   #37
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Why doesn't MLB sim the first 5 or 6 innings like I do in the Show sometimes? Easy way to speed up the game.
Imagine going to the ballgame and not having to sit there for 4 hours.

You know what, lets play 2.
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Old 12-14-2019, 06:19 AM   #38
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...This got a bit off topic.

I'd prefer if OOTP has a "minimum batters faced" option within league rules. (If someone wants to split the difference and make it 2, or for that matter make it 4+, they should be allowed to.)
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Old 12-14-2019, 09:15 AM   #39
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Anyone who says they need to decrease commercial breaks is living in a fantasy land. Its part of the economics of the sport. Decreasing commercials means decreased ads and decreased revenue. No business on the planet would do that.

I don't particularly care for the 3 batter minimum but I also don't know that's it's going to be a huge issue. At some point in youth baseball we were called out after two fouls with two strikes. That seems ridiculous but if we grew up with it and never knew the difference it would seem normal. A lot of people just don't want to see change. Some people probably didn't want to see the mound lowered. Many still don't want the DH. Some even resisted replay...

The game changes. The consumer changes. Everything is also cyclical. At some point the HR, BB, K method of winning will not work either by rule or adaptation in strategy and we'll all be on to a new complaint about how the game has changed. I don't love this era we are in, but I kind of hate it less than the era we left when I wondered if every player on the field was juicing.
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Old 12-15-2019, 12:11 AM   #40
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...At some point in youth baseball we were called out after two fouls with two strikes. That seems ridiculous but if we grew up with it and never knew the difference it would seem normal.

Interesting. And we grew up with a foul bunt on two strikes being a strike out. Wonder what the origin of that was?
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