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Old 10-25-2019, 08:47 PM   #1
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that one rating away from superstardom

I have a choice between two pitchers. Mike Tyner is on my team and would be an elite SP if his curveball improves as projected. I can trade even up for Jonathon Gossin and he will be an elite SP if his control improves as projected.

I know there isn't an absolute right or wrong answer but I'm curious how you would approach it.
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Old 10-25-2019, 10:23 PM   #2
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What is Tyner's Stuff if you set him to SP?

For Gossin, that awful Control would be tough to improve all the way when he's already 22.
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Old 10-25-2019, 10:38 PM   #3
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Here's what he looks like as a starter.
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Old 10-26-2019, 12:50 AM   #4
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I think this is a no-brainer, I would keep Tyner. He's already ready to go as an SP and won't rely on developing that Curveball or not. Plus he has way more Stamina. Only downside is his Movement.

Gossin looks to be coming off a major injury which is a red flag, and I'd also bet that he won't develop that Control all the way. Keep an eye on him throughout his career to see if I'm right about that, I could be wrong.
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Old 10-26-2019, 12:39 PM   #5
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I see it as much closer than others seem to:

Gossin is a 4 pitch pitcher and Tyner a 3 pitch pitcher. That nullifies Tyner's endurance edge, because the game really seems to give a bigger penalty each time through the lineup if you have fewer pitches. If Gossin had Tyner's endurance I'd think he was way ahead, because he could pitch a lot deeper into games. He can't because he doesn't have the stamina though, but he'd just need better stamina to be clearly better because....

While Gossin's control will probably never fully develop, he's also an extreme groundball pitcher, so it just has to become barely passable, a decent amount of the extra walks given up erased by double plays.

All this is less true if your game is in an earlier era than modern day (by that I mean even 20-25 years ago), the earlier the less so, but in modern day baseball movement/groundball tendency are more important because it's so much of a game of home runs (the way you might place low value on those if playing in 1910).

It's still very close to me though, but only because Gossin doesn't have the stamina to make full use of being a 4 pitch pitcher.
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Old 10-26-2019, 02:15 PM   #6
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Tyner, every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Even if his curveball doesn't develop a bit more, he can still get big league hitters out. If Gossin's control doesn't improve, he's not a big league pitcher, as evidenced by his bad numbers in Double-A and Triple-A. And even if it does improve to its full potential, he's still only a borderline starter with that control, although he'd be a really really good back-end bullpen guy. But you don't trade a proven pitcher for a guy who might become a decent reliever.
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Old 10-27-2019, 04:42 PM   #7
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9 months later and Tyner's curveball has gone from 41 to 42 and Gosslin's control has gone from 16 to 19. Gossin just turned 23 and Tyner is 24 1/2.

The AI is rating Gossin much higher than it was and Tynor hasn't changed.
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Old 10-28-2019, 01:46 PM   #8
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Wait, your team won 138 games!!!!

Not sure it really matters much which way you go here. I mean, you have a long way to fall here before your team is even human.
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Old 10-28-2019, 02:11 PM   #9
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Tyner and it's easy. Forgot his name, but the White Sox dudes control will bite you. I highly value consistency. Tyner should play better start to start, year to year. White Sox guy might have a higher ceiling, but his floor is wayyyy lower.

I like knowing what I'm getting.
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Old 10-28-2019, 02:17 PM   #10
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The control is a deal breaker. Let some other team suffer the disappointment.
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Old 10-28-2019, 02:36 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by BirdWatcher View Post
Wait, your team won 138 games!!!
yeah, this is my LAD save. I have attendance up to 4.5 mil per year so even with an economizer as an owner my budget is pushing $400mil. This isn't moneyball lol.
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Old 10-28-2019, 02:58 PM   #12
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yeah, this is my LAD save. I have attendance up to 4.5 mil per year so even with an economizer as an owner my budget is pushing $400mil. This isn't moneyball lol.
In that case, do whatever you want to do. What's the worst that could happen? You end up winning 115 games instead of nearly 140.
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Old 10-28-2019, 03:05 PM   #13
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It was one of those seasons, by far the best I've had. It seemed I always had a third or more of my lineup with red flames beside their name.

These are young pitchers, and if their and their ratings cooperate could be with me for 7-8 years. So whatever the record, it's a big decision. But i hear you-the need to always improve is a curse lol.
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Old 10-28-2019, 05:56 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panda234 View Post
It was one of those seasons, by far the best I've had. It seemed I always had a third or more of my lineup with red flames beside their name.

These are young pitchers, and if their and their ratings cooperate could be with me for 7-8 years. So whatever the record, it's a big decision. But i hear you-the need to always improve is a curse lol.
Yes, admittedly I was mostly just teasing you. I had scanned this post earlier but hadn't noticed the record of your team until today. And I was floored.

I did have a 3-year period when I was first playing OOTP (which was just a few years ago) where I got the Rockies to a three season stretch of 116, 125, and 116 wins. And I thought that was crazy. Holy crap- 138!!!
(Granted, I found that playing with historical players it was a bit too easy to be a genius, even if you feel like you are trying to play it fair. I mean, I had guys like Chipper Jones, Miguel Tejada, Scott Rolen, Bernie Williams, Andy Pettitte, Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, etc. mostly in their prime. And before that Boomer Wells. And then a not in his prime Roger Clemens. Still, Roger Clemens! And briefly Mark McGwire setting the new single-season HR record at Coors Field.
Which is partly why I play fictional now. After winning 125 I didn't much see the point in continuing.)

But in all seriousness, I am not as confident as many others here about which way you should go. Tyner could be seen as a proven commodity, but at the big league level that is in the bullpen, not as a starter. I'm not convinced he succeeds as a starter with only 3 pitches. Granted, two are tremendous. But he's nearly 24 years old. Does that curve ball really develop to its full potential? I have my doubts. I love his stamina. At the very least you have a great, multi-inning, reliever.
But that 4-pitch mix of Gossin is impressive. Especially the elite fastball with an elite changeup. Stamina not great and is this current injury a portent of future fragility? No way to know (without cheating a bit, anyway) but it raises concerns for me. Okay, he'll struggle with control a bit (or a lot, too soon to tell.) This likely means an inconsistent career. But with plus stuff and elite movement, and with his extreme groundball tendencies, I don't think this is insurmountable. How's your infield defense? He'll get strikeouts and he'll get groundballs. And he'll walk guys. If you've got the players who can make the plays behind him I suspect his lack of control will be pretty well mitigated. (Of course, I also have no idea what the statistical environment is in your league. That would be a factor.) Your team won 138 games. I'm guessing you have some fine defenders.

Hmm. So what would I do? I'd probably take a chance and pull the trigger on the trade just to see what will happen. It's just a game. Have a little fun. Of course, I'd probably hate myself afterwards when Gossin ends up being a walking injury report and Tyner develops into a HOF'er.
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