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OOTP 14 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 04-17-2013, 03:28 PM   #1
VanillaGorilla
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Modeling OOTP v14 HOF on RL HOF

I have a few things I want to do with the last v 13 HOF, but I am anxious to get some play time in on v14, so I am getting the ball rolling with that.

Some new things:

No more will players get in on the First Ballot Standard in anything but their first year of eligibility. All players inducted by the default software settings will still get a FBS, but it will happen immediately. The proportional representation of pitchers and hitters to the RL HOF will be maintained.

This league is starting in 2004. The HOF will have it's Inaugural Class in 2034. The one year waiting period will begin in 2041. The 5 year wait will go into effect in 2052. The dates for these events were all based on a weighted randomization based on RL. I chose to start with zero wait, and progress to 1 year and then 5 years, just as in RL. There was nothing random about this sequence and there is nothing random about not changing the wait period after the 5 year period is instituted. The amount of time between the start of the league and the changing of the wait periods were all a weighted randomization.

The classes will not be tied to RL inductions on a year by year basis. The number of entrants in any year will be based on RL, as will the proportionality of hitters to pitchers, but there will be no corresponding season to 1999 where two hitters and 1 pitcher get inducted simply because the year corresponds to 1999, for example.

With the added feature of the Free Agent draft, after 2012, the league will be subject to contraction. The contraction algorithm is something I have only thought through. This will be the first time I test it in the game. There is a good chance that there will be no contraction, but there is a chance.

I have used weighted random factors based on the previous league for all the league settings that I had open for variance. Things that were not subject to change include the use of neutralized stats, recalc, and AI evaluation for overall ratings.

The injury setting for this league is "Very High".

I will pick up managing the Arizona Diamondbacks starting with the 2008 season (chosen randomly, no weighting). If I do well and don't get fired, it will take a while to get to 2034 and the first HOF class. If I suck and get fired, things will go quicker.

I generated the draft pool and got a 54 year-old Manny Mota rated with 3 stars (I am using Very Low scouting, btw). So, I have my first laugh of the league, and it has yet to start. Good omen.

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Old 04-21-2013, 10:48 AM   #2
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I've been fired

No big shock there. I will be simming to the 2024 season and taking a job then. Playing IS such fun.

I have been implementing the contraction algorithm. I decided if contraction occurred, it is at that point I would go to league evolution, as opposed to declaring an arbitrary date in advance. Contraction will be big news, as the chances of it happening are slim.

Along with very high injuries I am using high position fatigue. Through 6 years of the league the most GS by any catcher is 137 (done twice).
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Old 04-23-2013, 09:20 AM   #3
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Update

The 2015 season is in the books. I am simming through 2023 and then picking up a team to play, which slows things down. The HOF will open in 2034.

A revision has been made to the algorithm for determining the number of players that enter in a year, and I really like it. This method uses proportionality of league of players as the basis of the number of inductees. What is cool about this is that, once coded, you could have a 4 team league, a 40 team league, or a 400 team and you would get a number of Hall entrants that reflects proportionately on RL.

Also, you could wait 100 years before establishing a HOF and you would get a number of Hall entrants that is represents a 100 year sample size of players. There might be 15 entrants expected in an initial class that had 100 years of history. There is no set number of entrants, but the probability is set by the number of players that have played the game at the time of each ballot.

As I said, I really like this. It is an elegant formulation that would make the process produce a realistic number of entrants for a league of any type that has been in existence for any amount of time and has any number of alumni. This is precisely what I have been aiming for with this model. I think this may be the final piece for universal applicability.

Now that I have it, it seems like such an obvious method. I laugh thinking how it took me six months to reach the obvious. If only all things in life could be learned in that time span.

2034 cannot get here fast enough, for me.
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Old 04-26-2013, 07:02 AM   #4
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2024 Season is Underway

I took the job with the Rockies (like that matters) and am managing the team. My owner is a demanding economizer, so my life expectancy is probably about that of a copulating male Praying Mantis.

All of the ball parks in this league are neutral as the result of the now fixed bug (speaking of the Praying Mantis). Since the start of the league, I have had four teams move (San Diego to Indy, Texas to San Diego, Dodgers to Jacksonville, and Milwaukee to Austin). All of these parks have modifiers other than 1.000. I am just going to let the league continue as a predominantly neutral ball park league. The aggregate numbers will not be affected by any of this. This again points out the absolute genius of the game's construction.

There have been 6 hitters and 3 pitchers that have been inducted into the HOF by the software defaults. They have been removed, but their inductions are noted and they will receive First Ballot Screenings once the standards have been established by the first (or second, or third) induction classes.

I have a few things to finish up in the last HOF that I need for comparisons here. I hope to get those completed this weekend.

The first HOF class will be inducted in 2034, still.
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Old 05-11-2013, 10:47 PM   #5
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Update approaching 2034

I am having a blast playing. That I managed to not get fired is a small miracle.

I took over a stacked Rockies team that had won 69 games the previous year. I started the season with a 22 year-old George Brett on the disabled list and a 24 year-old Charlie Hayes filling in. Hayes managed to be hitting .324 into May, so he couldn't just be sent down. He found a home at second base and developed from a 2 to a 15 on a 20 scale over the next two seasons and won a GG.

The Very High injury setting with the high positional fatigue makes for a lot of use of bench players. I love it. I don't think I would enjoy using fictional players as much with these settings, but the fact that I can look up this emergency fill in and maybe find an interesting thing on Wiki about him makes for the frustration over a starter going down being something other than merely empty frustration.

I let the AI do my team's transactions so I do not skew the league. I do set the team strategy and designate Win Now/Neutral/Rebuild. Except for the cases where a player whines about playing for me and I shop him around and make the deal that day (I do not Window Shop Around). The AI went out and signed Tommy Bridges who had come off a 330 K season. My scout raves about him being an elite ace of any staff. Imagine my smile when the AI slotted him behind two other pitchers of mine in the rotation. If they all stay healthy, this will be easy.

The time spent playing has also offered me the chance to refine the HOF process before I begin here. Nothing major has changed from the original plans, but there are a couple of points that I felt could be handled in a variety of ways that I have come to like a particular approach.

I am in the 2027 season. The inaugural class will be in 2034. I am looking forward to a fun process and a group of well known inductees for the original class.

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Old 05-12-2013, 08:53 PM   #6
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can't wait for you to get started, i really enjoyed following along your previous project.

quick question how difficult or easy is it to set up a league like yours? could you possibly post all your settings you used. i'd like to set a league up like yours however i would just let the computer pick the HOF.
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Old 05-14-2013, 07:53 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iverbure View Post
can't wait for you to get started, i really enjoyed following along your previous project.

quick question how difficult or easy is it to set up a league like yours? could you possibly post all your settings you used. i'd like to set a league up like yours however i would just let the computer pick the HOF.
There is nothing difficult about setting up the leagues, themselves. The point of this league, and the past two leagues, is to see how the HOF model works in practice and works with different settings. The first league had Low injuries, the second had High Injuries, and this current one has Very High.

I use defaults for player development and aging in all leagues. I use recalc (have used varying lengths, they are all good) and player development On.

I used a weighted random method of determining my start year which leans towards 1871 as the start point. That this league started in the 21st Century was almost a one thousand to one occurrence.

I use AAA with ghost players for the minors.

If you want to make a league "like" mine:

Random Debut, start any year
Neutralized stats
Historical evolution
AAA w/Ghosts
Recalc (any time frame)
Player Development
Historical Player Creation Modifiers
I had been previously using the "automatically adjust league totals" option, but I uncheck it after 2012 when I enable all facets of League evolution, otherwise any league evolution as far as raising/lower mound appears to be negated

All other settings (injury, finances, basis for defensive eval, etc) I have mixed up from league to league.

I let the AI handle all player moves. I draft according to need set forth by the owner and what my scouts say. I make the decision prior to the draft if I am going to use current rating, potential rating, or both to make my picks. It's hard, but I try not to let the player name influence my picks.

I only trade a player when a player expresses displeasure with being on my team and then I use the shop around feature and trade them. I don't ever add a player on my end of the deal, but I will try to get a throw in from the other team.

I do not have draft pick trading enabled.

That about covers it.
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Old 05-23-2013, 03:02 PM   #8
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Shock amongst shocks, I haven't been fired, and I won a WS.

My WS win season, my big three pitchers all stayed healthy, and it was a roll to the post season.

I just finished 2029 and got bounced in the LDS with an injury depleted roster.

I am going into the 2030 season with a 28 year-old Ed Ruelbach as my number 5 starter...nice. However, this past draft class (where I had the 21st pick) was stacked with HOF/CYA pitchers. We'll see how my guys do in this now pitching heavy mix.

2034 is still the date of the first HOF class. "Four more years," as they say.

When I play in these leagues, I usually get fired very quickly, and with a controlling/economizer owning the Rockies, I did not expect to make it out of the second season.
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Old 05-23-2013, 03:13 PM   #9
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Have you had Harry Salisbury show up in any of your leagues? If so how has he performed. Very short career in real life, but it looks like his neutered stats may have gotten mangled.
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Old 05-23-2013, 04:43 PM   #10
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Quote:
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Have you had Harry Salisbury show up in any of your leagues? If so how has he performed. Very short career in real life, but it looks like his neutered stats may have gotten mangled.
Harry Salisbury has done well in both previous leagues.

He was a potential HOFer in my first league (had Veteran Standard type of qualifications for his career when the league terminated, but was not inducted) and wound up a top 5 ever pitcher in my second league.

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ml#post3452628
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Old 05-23-2013, 06:00 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanillaGorilla View Post
Harry Salisbury has done well in both previous leagues.

He was a potential HOFer in my first league (had Veteran Standard type of qualifications for his career when the league terminated, but was not inducted) and wound up a top 5 ever pitcher in my second league.

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ml#post3452628
Have you looked at his real career and then at his neutralized stats? At work, but I think he has one year where the game has him getting 58 wins. Must be a database error.
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Old 05-23-2013, 08:26 PM   #12
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The Only Nolan is another guy that has some really strange neutralized stats. Is this done by design? 70-28 record for 1878 889 innings pitched.
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Old 05-23-2013, 10:59 PM   #13
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Here is Salisbury in my league



And The Only Nolan

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This just feels more like waiting in line at the Department of Motor Vehicles.


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Old 05-24-2013, 12:35 AM   #14
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Have you looked at his real career and then at his neutralized stats? At work, but I think he has one year where the game has him getting 58 wins. Must be a database error.
Nice find.

This is an issue with the neutralization process, itself, and how the formula outputs data from a completely dissimilar (and extreme) baseball structure that is the 19th Century.

This is wholly separate from OOTP not using ball park factor as a factor in the equation.

To fix this would require a modification of the neutralization formula (some of us think we have a better one than the Jamesian process on BBREF) and would be somewhat involved.

The addition of ball park effects to the neutralized stats in use would be a simple data dump.

Again, very nice find. The skewed performance of the 19th century pitchers has been a point of ire on the forums. This is not the fault of OOTP, but the neutralization formula, itself.

The ball park effects could be added easily. The 19th century correction may be a hydra head issue.

The lack of ball park factors in the neutralization stats really bothers me (there are a couple other issues that are simply sloppiness I have noticed, also, in the neutralizations). I held off on posting more, as I found more, and have been exploring the goings on, and am wanting to make a concise presentation.
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Old 05-24-2013, 07:58 AM   #15
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Quote:
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Nice find.

This is an issue with the neutralization process, itself, and how the formula outputs data from a completely dissimilar (and extreme) baseball structure that is the 19th Century.

This is wholly separate from OOTP not using ball park factor as a factor in the equation.

To fix this would require a modification of the neutralization formula (some of us think we have a better one than the Jamesian process on BBREF) and would be somewhat involved.

The addition of ball park effects to the neutralized stats in use would be a simple data dump.

Again, very nice find. The skewed performance of the 19th century pitchers has been a point of ire on the forums. This is not the fault of OOTP, but the neutralization formula, itself.

The ball park effects could be added easily. The 19th century correction may be a hydra head issue.

The lack of ball park factors in the neutralization stats really bothers me (there are a couple other issues that are simply sloppiness I have noticed, also, in the neutralizations). I held off on posting more, as I found more, and have been exploring the goings on, and am wanting to make a concise presentation.
I was really enjoying my random debut league, but I think this will be something that sticks in my craw and bugs me to death. May have to give real stats a try instead of neutralized.
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Old 05-26-2013, 01:55 PM   #16
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Starting 2031

2030 is in the books. My demanding/economizer owner expected me to win it all. Somehow I managed to be 15 games out in the middle of April. My division rival rival was playing .800 ball and had taken 8 of 8 from me...ugh.

I finished 6 games under .500 and 29 games out of first place and saw my attendance decline by over 2 million from 2 seasons prior.

I still have a job. Someone tell Marcus to fix this.

--------

My division rival was led, in part, by newly drafted rookie Fred Lynn.

Fred Lynn, just as in RL, won the ROY.

Just as in RL, Fred Lynn won the MVP in his rookie season.

Fred Lynn went to the World Series, and lost......just as in RL.....


--------

So, since I still have a job, the seasons will be plodding along, until my owner gets his senses and gives me the hatchet action I deserve.
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Old 05-30-2013, 02:51 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanillaGorilla View Post
The 2015 season is in the books. I am simming through 2023 and then picking up a team to play, which slows things down. The HOF will open in 2034.

A revision has been made to the algorithm for determining the number of players that enter in a year, and I really like it. This method uses proportionality of league of players as the basis of the number of inductees. What is cool about this is that, once coded, you could have a 4 team league, a 40 team league, or a 400 team and you would get a number of Hall entrants that reflects proportionately on RL.

Also, you could wait 100 years before establishing a HOF and you would get a number of Hall entrants that is represents a 100 year sample size of players. There might be 15 entrants expected in an initial class that had 100 years of history. There is no set number of entrants, but the probability is set by the number of players that have played the game at the time of each ballot.

As I said, I really like this. It is an elegant formulation that would make the process produce a realistic number of entrants for a league of any type that has been in existence for any amount of time and has any number of alumni. This is precisely what I have been aiming for with this model. I think this may be the final piece for universal applicability.

Now that I have it, it seems like such an obvious method. I laugh thinking how it took me six months to reach the obvious. If only all things in life could be learned in that time span.

2034 cannot get here fast enough, for me.
I have catching up on all your HOF threads today, and I'm really intrigued by all the work you've done, and this algorithm in particular. Would you care to shed a little more little on this "magic number" when you've gotten it fine tuned?

Again fantastic work. You really ought to post it in the dynasty forums, because you are clearly as passionate about this as some are about playing the game in more "conventional" ways.
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Old 05-31-2013, 06:50 PM   #18
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Started 2032

My top pick in 2030, Troy Percival, chose not to sign with me...and my BP totally blew in 2031...go figure.

With the Percival compensation pick, I was able to grab a 5 star scouted Pete Ward to fill a need in LF. He has been playing OF and 3B and after a very slow start, is now a monster (reference his actual rookie season and previous comments on how ratings interact with recalc when season/career data is exhausted).

My actual first rd pick in 2031, Johnny Logan, chose not to sign with me, either. The AI went and signed a 28 year-old John Valentin to a long term deal to fill that gaping hole in my SS slot. Valentin is carrying a career npa OPS+ of 130 and a DefEff of 1.039 at SS. I'll take that every day of the week.

So, just a season and a half to go before the inaugural class...woo hoo!

Quote:
Originally Posted by goroyals View Post
I have catching up on all your HOF threads today, and I'm really intrigued by all the work you've done, and this algorithm in particular. Would you care to shed a little more little on this "magic number" when you've gotten it fine tuned?

Again fantastic work. You really ought to post it in the dynasty forums, because you are clearly as passionate about this as some are about playing the game in more "conventional" ways.
Thank you for the kind words.

When the players enter using the algorithm, I will describe it more. I continue to fine tune it as the 2034 season approaches, so once it gets put in play, I will keep it as implemented throughout the run. Not trying to play Secret Squirrel, but it is a time saver if I only post what I am actually doing as opposed to posting and then retracting and revising.

The Dynasties are great. The Dynasty folks do things with a different purpose (aside from the underlying fun that is OOTP). I throw in historical nuggets about simmed careers and how I generally suck as a manager, but the purpose of the leagues is to have a superior HOF induction process. By using real players in a recalc environment we can get a sense of how the historical modifiers work in OOTP when we can easily compare the RL stats of the players.

The Historical thread was dormant when I began posting two leagues ago. I think it is good to have some passion here, also.
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Old 06-05-2013, 01:31 AM   #19
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All Star Break 2033

Halfway through the 2033 season, which means once the play for the year is done, the first HOF class will be inducted at the start of the 2034 preseason. I am geeked.

And, this season may be about the most fun I have had playing OOTP.

This is how I draft when running a team for the HOF leagues.

If I have a pick in the top haf of the first rd, I base all my selections on overall rating. If my first pick is in the second half of the first rd, or later, I base my picks on potential. I don't suggest this as a strategy, but it is how I give myself the fun of going through the newly available players while maintaining objectivity.

If my owner says I have a weakness at a position, I give any player an extra star that plays that position. If he says I have a slight weakness, i give an extra half star.

I give all SP an extra half star.

I subtract a half star from RPs.

Somehow I managed to have Chuck Klein fall to my 23rd pick. He was named a top 10 talent in each of the pre draft mailings. Glad to get him, especially since I did have a slight weakness in RF.

He spent the better part of 2 months on the DL, but right now, I have only 1 player (John Valentin, out for another month) injured. Using very high injuries I have come to expect the average number of players (median, mean, or mode) to be 5 per team.

I had a bunch of injuries early, but my fill ins played admirably and kept me out of the cellar. Now I am 10 games out of the div lead and 2 1/2 out of the WC while other teams have typical sized laundry lists of injured players. This is exciting.

But I am actually more excited of putting in the first class. That should be anywhere from a day to 3 days off.
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Old 06-05-2013, 11:55 PM   #20
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2033 Season Completed, Selection Process Underway

Gosh, this is fun.

My Rockies missed the play-offs with Chuck Klein making a return visit to the DL during the stretch run.

When draft time came around, my owner only noted a slight weakness in LF. The draft pool was deep. Picking based on potential and need, I took Michael D Young with the 22nd pick. My scout gave him 5 star potential while OSA gave him 1 star. The current ratings for OSA and my guy are comparable, but my guy says the ceiling is high while OSA says he is and will forever be 1 star. We'll see who turns out to be right.

I lost Curt Simmons to FA and with the supplemental 1st rd compensation pick (35th) Dickie Thon was available. No LF or SP had 4 1/2 stars, so I took Thon's 5 star potential, even though middle IF was not an issue. OSA had him 1/2.5 and my guy had him 4.5/5. In the January scout OSA upgraded it's assessment of Thon to 2/3.5...they are coming around!

Anyhow, this has nothing to do with the HOF, but scouting in V14 has been a hot topic of discussion, elsewhere. I wanted to make note of these ratings here for future reference.

------------------------------------

Goroyals inquired about my "magic number" which solves the HOF induction rate problem for all leagues of any size and any amount of history.

Well, there is no specific number that is magic, but rather a ratio. Ratios themselves are quite magical. Marcus has used this tool brilliantly to give his game universal applicability and us users unlimited customization. This solution is so obvious, once it is found. Life is like that, often times.

The magic number for the Inaugural Class is 1323.8.

From 1871 through the 1935 season, 6618 men had played Major League baseball. After the 1935 season, 5 of those men were inducted as the Inaugural Class of the RL HOF. 6618 / 5 = 1323.8.

In my league, which began with the 2003 season, I have had 5523 players see game action. Using the same proportion of players entered vs having played the game, I would get 4 inductees for my first class.

I take it one further step by saying : OK, instead of simply doing the ratio that is generated by the RL data and applying it to my player population to determine the number of entrants, let's make things a bit less predictable while maintaining a basis of historical integrity.

So, instead of simply saying my player population number should generate 4 Inaugural HOFers because that is the ratio, I will roll the 1323.8 sided die for each of the 5523 players and every time I get a "1" that will be a spot in the HOF that will get a plaque.

Of course, everyone knows there is no such thing as a 1323.8 sided die (how do you get .8 of a side?), so I rolled a 13238 sided die 5523 times and said that each time I rolled a 1-10, that would count as a spot for a plaque in the class of 2034.

So I did that.

The number of rolls that were from 1-10?

Four.

to be continued....
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