OOTP Predicted the Nats to win the WS

[BronxBombers7]

At the beginning of the year OOTP simulated the 2019 season and had the Nationals beating the Astros to win the World Series. Let's see if they were right....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Us9j-4iL_k

[Matt Arnold]

Looking more and more likely that we should have stuck with our gut instead of re-running the sims...

[itsmb8]

Heys guys... PLEASE PREDICT THE BREWERS TO WIN THE 2020 WORLD SERIES.

[Dyzalot]

I wish you guys would sim with the game we play with instead of some sort of hybrid, developer's version. I find it strange that you market OOTP as a baseball sim and you do a sim of the MLB season before it starts for MLB to do a show about and discuss, yet you don't do it with the actual game that you sell. Seems a bit disingenuous to claim that "OOTP simmed the Nats winning" when it isn't the OOTP that consumers are familiar with. Just my two cents on the apparent dishonesty in using that preseason sim as a marketing tool for a game that wasn't used to do the sim.

[UltimateAverageGuy]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

I wish you guys would sim with the game we play with instead of some sort of hybrid, developer's version. I find it strange that you market OOTP as a baseball sim and you do a sim of the MLB season before it starts for MLB to do a show about and discuss, yet you don't do it with the actual game that you sell. Seems a bit disingenuous to claim that "OOTP simmed the Nats winning" when it isn't the OOTP that consumers are familiar with. Just my two cents on the apparent dishonesty in using that preseason sim as a marketing tool for a game that wasn't used to do the sim.

"people complain about absolutely everything" Exhibit A

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by UltimateAverageGuy

"people complain about absolutely everything" Exhibit A

Some people are willing to have principles and will call out perceived shadiness even in games they have purchased every year for a decade. I should be able to run the same sim they do when they advertise the game as a sim on the MLB network in front of a national audience;. The fact that I can't, while a minor thing to many people, still seems like a "bait & switch" kind of tactic.

"Look at our great sim and what it predicted for the MLB 2019 season! Oh, by the way, you can buy this game at ..." We aren't going to tell you that we don't actually perform this sim using the same game that we are advertising for you to buy...

Yes, I believe that even a company and game I love and support should be called out for things like this.

[UltimateAverageGuy]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

Some people are willing to have principles and will call out perceived shadiness even in games they have purchased every year for a decade. I should be able to run the same sim they do when they advertise the game as a sim on the MLB network in front of a national audience;. The fact that I can't, while a minor thing to many people, still seems like a "bait & switch" kind of tactic.

"Look at our great sim and what it predicted for the MLB 2019 season! Oh, by the way, you can buy this game at ..." We aren't going to tell you that we don't actually perform this sim using the same game that we are advertising for you to buy...

Yes, I believe that even a company and game I love and support should be called out for things like this.

Oh.

[Mat]

I really do not understand. How is it a different game?

I am sure it would the same game engine, it would just have different front-end I would imagine, with the ability to set how many games to simulate and to choose rosters.

Admittedly, this would be cool to have in the retail game as well. But they are not cheating us on anything.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by Mat

I really do not understand. How is it a different game?

I am sure it would the same game engine, it would just have different front-end I would imagine, with the ability to set how many games to simulate and to choose rosters.

Admittedly, this would be cool to have in the retail game as well. But they are not cheating us on anything.

A few months ago I asked what settings they used to do the preseason simulations. I was curious if they used defaults, which injury setting, etc. I was asking under the assumption that they would be using settings that to the best of their knowledge, produce outcomes that reliably model the MLB. The response was that they used a special version of the game for the simulations that was different than the game that ships. Just seems disingenuous to me to market a game as a sim, show how it sims a potential MLB season for a national audience on the MLB network but not use the actual game that you are promoting to execute the sim. Doesn't mean I hate the game or the developers or anything. Just something I personally find morally distasteful.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

The response was that they used a special version of the game for the simulations that was different than the game that ships.

How was it different?

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by Orcin

How was it different?

I don't know. I just let it go at the time. All I know for sure is that they used a different product than what I purchased and use to sim with. It was also the beginning of the season and I didn't want to stir up a bunch of drama at the time when I knew the team was busy coding updates and dealing with the influx of customer service issues that you always get at launch. Didn't really mean to start up a bunch of drama at this time either but I guess I was still feeling a bit "salty" about it all when I read the thread and couldn't help myself.

[Matt Arnold]

We use the sim module for almost all of the predictions. For the pre-season one, we use the "entire season" mode in there which is accessible to anyone.

We do use a couple extra "custom" features which are not public, namely a mode to schedule and sim the playoffs and generate our reports on that. And depending on the sim, we may do some other custom tweaks that are not available to the public (in the preseason case, for example, we had it set so that Vlad would get called up 20ish days into the sim, whereas by default the sim module can only use opening day rosters). And we do generate more debug output which we can use to dig in deeper than what is displayed on the html page after running the preseason projection.

But the core of it is 100% the same OOTP game you play with. Rosters used are the same preseason or live start rosters , and the game engine itself is the same as when you are playing out a game.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

We use the sim module for almost all of the predictions. For the pre-season one, we use the "entire season" mode in there which is accessible to anyone.

We do use a couple extra "custom" features which are not public, namely a mode to schedule and sim the playoffs and generate our reports on that. And depending on the sim, we may do some other custom tweaks that are not available to the public (in the preseason case, for example, we had it set so that Vlad would get called up 20ish days into the sim, whereas by default the sim module can only use opening day rosters). And we do generate more debug output which we can use to dig in deeper than what is displayed on the html page after running the preseason projection.

But the core of it is 100% the same OOTP game you play with. Rosters used are the same preseason or live start rosters , and the game engine itself is the same as when you are playing out a game.

If I remember correctly, I asked what settings you guys used for injuries and everything else. I was asking if you used all defaults or not. You said that you couldn't answer that because you used something that wasn't in the standard game, or words to that effect. If that isn't the case then can you answer the original question about injuries, etc.? As for the "sim module", I have no idea what that is nor do I see an option for it when starting a game. How does the sim module compare to the standard game and if it is more optimal at modelling a MLB baseball season than the standard game, why?

The whole point of me playing this game most of the time is to try and produce theoretical MLB seasons that model real MLB baseball as closely as possible. For the past ten years I had always assumed that the standard game at mostly default settings would be the optimal way to do this. Is that not the case? I'm not mad or anything, just really confused.

[Argonaut]

For me the benefit of the simulation module is that you can simulate thousands of games very quickly, whereas simulating only one standard season will take some time.

I haven't seen the option in the module to simulate seasons though, where's that? All I've seen is the option for 2 teams to play each other over and over.

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

If I remember correctly, I asked what settings you guys used for injuries and everything else. I was asking if you used all defaults or not. You said that you couldn't answer that because you used something that wasn't in the standard game, or words to that effect. If that isn't the case then can you answer the original question about injuries, etc.? As for the "sim module", I have no idea what that is nor do I see an option for it when starting a game. How does the sim module compare to the standard game and if it is more optimal at modelling a MLB baseball season than the standard game, why?

The whole point of me playing this game most of the time is to try and produce theoretical MLB seasons that model real MLB baseball as closely as possible. For the past ten years I had always assumed that the standard game at mostly default settings would be the optimal way to do this. Is that not the case? I'm not mad or anything, just really confused.

Sim module is within a game. If you're in commish mode, then at the bottom of the "play" menu, it opens a dialog if you want to just run some quick matchups between teams. Basically, it takes the teams as set up and plays them against each other. So no, it does not include injuries, or the AI swapping guys down to the farm or player development or trading or anything like that, so it's not as "realistic" as playing the game out.

So yeah, if an ideal world, we'd use the regular mode for these sims to get a better idea of the larger fluctuations at play (ie. when do the Astros call up Yordan? Does he come up and rake, or be a bench piece? Do they trade for Greinke? Do they have to give up Tucker to get Greinke?). But since we don't have an OOTP Developments super-computer cluster (yet...), the sim module is a good proxy. As I said, it still uses the same players and game engine.

[Dyzalot]

I can understand why you might not use the standard game for thousands of sims if the problem is lack of computing power in order to complete it in any reasonable amount of time. However, it would be nice to also see an official preseason sim from the standard game, even if you could only run it 100 or 10 times instead of thousands. And thanks for clarifying all of that for me.

[BronxBombers7]

Astros are fighting their way back into the series, so maybe OOTP's post season sim could be right then. lol

[zdubbya13]

Originally Posted by itsmb8

Heys guys... PLEASE PREDICT THE BREWERS TO WIN THE 2020 WORLD SERIES.

What he said! We Brewers fans have suffered long enough!

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by zdubbya13

What he said! We Brewers fans have suffered long enough!

They're close. I'd say they're a rotation piece or two away, but especially with Hiura looking like a legit batter, they've got a strong lineup and obviously one of the best relief arms in baseball.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by BronxBombers7

At the beginning of the year OOTP simulated the 2019 season and had the Nationals beating the Astros to win the World Series.

That's cool
But, ultimately, pretty meaningless.

It's the same problem that projections have - accounting for things like trades and injuries.

A pre-season prediction, or projection, doesn't account for the Astros trading for Greinke, the entire Yankees team being injured, etc.