Prospects ratings dipped

hockey72 · 06-29-2019, 11:42 PM

What would cause a 5 star prospect to go down to a 3.5 in one year? He wasn't ready to be brought up until the following year. I had a good hitting coach in AAA and he was starting there too. I also have a good scout with 100% accuracy. Thanks

Curve Ball Dave · 06-30-2019, 12:18 AM

The simple explanation is that he was reevaluated and downgraded. It happens all the time. But ratings are fluid. Just as his ratings can dip, they can also rise again, this also happens all the time. Look at it this way, if he maxes out to his potential as a 3.5 star player you still have a solid contributor at the Major League level, and those guys are not easy to come by when you compare that to how many guys are in the minor leagues. Five star guys are even more scarce and few ever reach that full five star potential.

So relax, let the guy develop. You still have a good prospect on your hands.

hockey72 · 06-30-2019, 04:50 PM

Thanks for that. I have almost every version of this game. This version seems to affect ratings more than in any other version.

WIUPIKE · 06-30-2019, 05:08 PM

Also what is your scouts ratings for amateurs against ratings for major leaguers

quillenl · 06-30-2019, 06:08 PM

My experience has been that you will virtually never see the effect of a hitting or pitching coach when looking at only a handful of players. So many other things seem to have a larger impact with 'random' being the largest impact of all.

Some young studs will simply fall off the face of the earth soon after they are drafted. Will see this a lot in the default settings. There is always the option to lower the value of Talent Change Randomness from 100 if you prefer less of the randomness. I'm sure there are plenty of other discussions about preferred settings for it in the forums (though I like 100).

If you think that change drives you nuts, wait till you have a #1 Draft Pick retire prior to the start of his first Spring Training to prefer another career

hockey72 · 06-30-2019, 07:42 PM

Scout is excellent for hitters. Hitting coach is very good.

hockey72 · 06-30-2019, 07:43 PM

How do you have a player retire for that?

NoOne · 06-30-2019, 10:03 PM

if a dip happens late in the mil career, it's more likely TCR. if it occurs in great amounts and within first 1-2 years of draft (2 for high school kids, maybe 1 for college), then it's more likely scouting adjustments.

5->3.5 steady over time? likely scouting adjusting to reality.

if you are someone that likes to 'simmer' a bit more at each level, try promoting sooner. don't worry if they fail a bit in the minors. it's not a significant factor as far as having a hof mil career.

most of what you see is not TCR, but often people think it is. maybe with fresh draft picks it's more prevalent than other contexts. most of the time it's the least likely cause.

BirdWatcher · 07-01-2019, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey72

How do you have a player retire for that?

Storylines.
Hasn't happened to me yet with a 1st round pick but I did have it happen to one of my favorite prospects, a relief pitcher who looked like he could develop into a nasty force in my 'pen. And was a great character guy.
When he was probably only about a season away from the big leagues he decided (again, storylines) to pursue an NFL career instead.

Aaron's Aron · 07-01-2019, 11:55 AM

If you have scouting accuracy set to 100%, then how good your scout is shouldn't matter. That means his true potential just went down due to TCR. Unless you meant something else by that statement, that is the only thing that could've happened. However, if you don't have scouting accuracy set to 100%, then yes, what the others said applies and holds true.

hockey72 · 07-01-2019, 12:05 PM

Yes. 100% accurate for scouting. Prospect drafted and made it to AAA as 5 star. Then in 1 year went down 3.5. His defense and speed were good but hitting overall was like 3s and 4s. He wasnt ready until following year. I've noticed that with other prospects too. After a year in AAA they drop. I could bring them up but they wouldnt start or play much. I would figure them playing and starting in one spot would be good and not hurt them.

USF · 07-01-2019, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey72

What would cause a 5 star prospect to go down to a 3.5 in one year? He wasn't ready to be brought up until the following year. I had a good hitting coach in AAA and he was starting there too. I also have a good scout with 100% accuracy. Thanks

We just converted my online league from 19 to XX and some of the GMs are claiming the same big dips on INT Complex players ie., 5* pot down to 3* pot. It happens some times between versions and rescouting. The player underneath the mask is likely the exact same.

hockey72 · 07-01-2019, 04:14 PM

Thanks everyone. I'm glad at least I wasnt the only one who has noticed. 19 was about the only version I didnt purchase. Xx is quite different with drafts and ratings I've noticed. It's like version of game went from average to hard or something for these 2 things. It grades very hard...stars 4 and 5 were awesome with other versions...now it seems like 3 and 4 are. 5 are really rare.

Drstrangelove · 07-05-2019, 03:16 PM

Three files displaying Current Ratings (stars) using 100% accuracy. One is OOTP19 (my 2021 season), another OOTP19 (my 2019 season) and the last is OOTP20 (2019 season.) Here are the % of players in each category across the 3 files.

Code:

5	1.0%	1.0%	0.9%
4.5	1.3%	1.3%	1.0%
4	2.2%	3.0%	2.6%
3.5	3.6%	3.5%	4.4%
3	7.8%	10.4%	9.7%

These numbers look statistically similar to me. The 3 star group is a little lower, but if the concern is what happened to the 3.5+ star players, I'm not sure it's in these numbers.

Below is the raw data.

One file shows:

5 stars - 17
4.5 stars -22
4 stars -37
3.5 stars -60
3 stars -130

Another file shows:

5 stars - 17
4.5 stars -22
4 stars -50
3.5 stars -58
3 stars -174

Another file shows:

5 stars - 15
4.5 stars -17
4 stars -43
3.5 stars -74
3 stars -161

The files are in order: OOTP20 (2019), OOTP19 (2019), OOTP19 (2021.)

damientheomen3 · 07-08-2019, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey72

Yes. 100% accurate for scouting. Prospect drafted and made it to AAA as 5 star. Then in 1 year went down 3.5. His defense and speed were good but hitting overall was like 3s and 4s. He wasnt ready until following year. I've noticed that with other prospects too. After a year in AAA they drop. I could bring them up but they wouldnt start or play much. I would figure them playing and starting in one spot would be good and not hurt them.

Not sure about in OOTP20, but in previous OOTPs I noticed it was usually these types of players (light hitter, good speed and/or defense, often at positions like corner outfield or 1B) that the AI eventually came around to realize weren't actually that valuable, resulting in a drop in star value over time even without an actual dip in ratings.

geisterhome · 07-11-2019, 04:19 PM

I don't want to open another thread...

Quick question:

Have any ratings been updated based on this seasons performances so far?

BIG17EASY · 07-12-2019, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geisterhome

I don't want to open another thread...

Quick question:

Have any ratings been updated based on this seasons performances so far?

You must use the Live Start feature for any updates.

06-30-2019, 12:18 AM	#2
Curve Ball Dave Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Chicago Posts: 2,271	The simple explanation is that he was reevaluated and downgraded. It happens all the time. But ratings are fluid. Just as his ratings can dip, they can also rise again, this also happens all the time. Look at it this way, if he maxes out to his potential as a 3.5 star player you still have a solid contributor at the Major League level, and those guys are not easy to come by when you compare that to how many guys are in the minor leagues. Five star guys are even more scarce and few ever reach that full five star potential. So relax, let the guy develop. You still have a good prospect on your hands. __________________ "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.

06-30-2019, 06:08 PM	#5
quillenl All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 568	My experience has been that you will virtually never see the effect of a hitting or pitching coach when looking at only a handful of players. So many other things seem to have a larger impact with 'random' being the largest impact of all. Some young studs will simply fall off the face of the earth soon after they are drafted. Will see this a lot in the default settings. There is always the option to lower the value of Talent Change Randomness from 100 if you prefer less of the randomness. I'm sure there are plenty of other discussions about preferred settings for it in the forums (though I like 100). If you think that change drives you nuts, wait till you have a #1 Draft Pick retire prior to the start of his first Spring Training to prefer another career __________________

06-30-2019, 10:03 PM	#8
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	if a dip happens late in the mil career, it's more likely TCR. if it occurs in great amounts and within first 1-2 years of draft (2 for high school kids, maybe 1 for college), then it's more likely scouting adjustments. 5->3.5 steady over time? likely scouting adjusting to reality. if you are someone that likes to 'simmer' a bit more at each level, try promoting sooner. don't worry if they fail a bit in the minors. it's not a significant factor as far as having a hof mil career. most of what you see is not TCR, but often people think it is. maybe with fresh draft picks it's more prevalent than other contexts. most of the time it's the least likely cause. Last edited by NoOne; 06-30-2019 at 10:04 PM.

07-05-2019, 03:16 PM	#14
Drstrangelove Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 346	Three files displaying Current Ratings (stars) using 100% accuracy. One is OOTP19 (my 2021 season), another OOTP19 (my 2019 season) and the last is OOTP20 (2019 season.) Here are the % of players in each category across the 3 files. Code: 5 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 4.5 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 4 2.2% 3.0% 2.6% 3.5 3.6% 3.5% 4.4% 3 7.8% 10.4% 9.7% These numbers look statistically similar to me. The 3 star group is a little lower, but if the concern is what happened to the 3.5+ star players, I'm not sure it's in these numbers. Below is the raw data. One file shows: 5 stars - 17 4.5 stars -22 4 stars -37 3.5 stars -60 3 stars -130 Another file shows: 5 stars - 17 4.5 stars -22 4 stars -50 3.5 stars -58 3 stars -174 Another file shows: 5 stars - 15 4.5 stars -17 4 stars -43 3.5 stars -74 3 stars -161 The files are in order: OOTP20 (2019), OOTP19 (2019), OOTP19 (2021.) Last edited by Drstrangelove; 07-05-2019 at 03:48 PM.

06-29-2019, 11:42 PM	#1
hockey72 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 47	Prospects ratings dipped What would cause a 5 star prospect to go down to a 3.5 in one year? He wasn't ready to be brought up until the following year. I had a good hitting coach in AAA and he was starting there too. I also have a good scout with 100% accuracy. Thanks Last edited by hockey72; 06-29-2019 at 11:44 PM. Reason: Added 2 more lines

06-30-2019, 04:50 PM	#3
hockey72 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 47	Thanks for that. I have almost every version of this game. This version seems to affect ratings more than in any other version.

06-30-2019, 05:08 PM	#4
WIUPIKE All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Nashville Area Posts: 1,257	Also what is your scouts ratings for amateurs against ratings for major leaguers

06-30-2019, 07:42 PM	#6
hockey72 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 47	Scout is excellent for hitters. Hitting coach is very good.

06-30-2019, 07:43 PM	#7
hockey72 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 47	How do you have a player retire for that?

07-01-2019, 11:55 AM	#10
Aaron's Aron Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 70	If you have scouting accuracy set to 100%, then how good your scout is shouldn't matter. That means his true potential just went down due to TCR. Unless you meant something else by that statement, that is the only thing that could've happened. However, if you don't have scouting accuracy set to 100%, then yes, what the others said applies and holds true.

07-01-2019, 12:05 PM	#11
hockey72 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 47	Yes. 100% accurate for scouting. Prospect drafted and made it to AAA as 5 star. Then in 1 year went down 3.5. His defense and speed were good but hitting overall was like 3s and 4s. He wasnt ready until following year. I've noticed that with other prospects too. After a year in AAA they drop. I could bring them up but they wouldnt start or play much. I would figure them playing and starting in one spot would be good and not hurt them.

07-01-2019, 04:14 PM	#13
hockey72 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 47	Thanks everyone. I'm glad at least I wasnt the only one who has noticed. 19 was about the only version I didnt purchase. Xx is quite different with drafts and ratings I've noticed. It's like version of game went from average to hard or something for these 2 things. It grades very hard...stars 4 and 5 were awesome with other versions...now it seems like 3 and 4 are. 5 are really rare.

07-11-2019, 04:19 PM	#16
geisterhome Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 286	I don't want to open another thread... Quick question: Have any ratings been updated based on this seasons performances so far?