Just fleeced the AI and i'm not sure how to feel about it

krownroyal83 · 07-04-2019, 01:14 AM

Unless i'm totally wrong this seems like a huge fleecing by me

Top picture is the guy i traded for. His team is currently clinging to the last playoff spot. He's making 23.2m this season, and has one season left on his contract after this one for the same amount, which happens to be a player option. I double checked by turning on scouting to 100% and he is in fact a 4 1/2 star pitcher. The second player is an above average CF who's done ok for us so far offensively and has done well defensively. He's only 3 stars though. I don't get this move at all. The team I traded with is currently listed as "rebuilding" and their scout is only listed as "Average" at scouting major leagues. To top it off, the trade also included my 10th round pick for their 3rd round pick. I have trading on hard/neutral. The team I traded with wasn't close to going over their budget. I can't really make sense of it.

Ty Cobb · 07-04-2019, 11:17 AM

Ryan for Fregosi...need I say more? In real life, sometimes GMs make stupid decisions. You may have gotten lucky with this. See if it becomes a pattern. If this is a one time bungle, it was luck a la the Ryan trade. If it's a pattern, you may want to talk to the development team about AI logic issues.

eldur00 · 07-04-2019, 11:24 AM

If they're rebuilding, they got the younger, cheaper player...isn't that something a rebuilding team would do ? Of course there's the picks but even then...

Findest2001 · 07-04-2019, 11:29 AM

Or maybe the player they got fits their team philosophy better (style and personality)

CBLCardinals · 07-04-2019, 01:13 PM

Other variables could be...

- Even though the SP has another year left it’s a player option...what if the other team believes he won’t be back?
- The OF is a 3 star/average talent. What is the state of the team OF?
- The OF appears to be in first year of Arbitration. He still has, I’m assuming, 2 more arb years left after this season? He’s also 27, so in prime years.

So your team gets an expensive ace for at least the rest of this season (no guarantee the player comes back since next season is player option...maybe he opts for bigger payday in FA?), in exchange for a league average talent player (3 stars) who has at least two guaranteed arb years left after this season. Seems reasonable?

If team is rebuilding surprised they didn’t request a top prospect instead?

rudel.dietrich · 07-04-2019, 02:07 PM

Looks like a salary dump

krownroyal83 · 07-04-2019, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ty Cobb

Ryan for Fregosi...need I say more? In real life, sometimes GMs make stupid decisions. You may have gotten lucky with this. See if it becomes a pattern. If this is a one time bungle, it was luck a la the Ryan trade. If it's a pattern, you may want to talk to the development team about AI logic issues.

Certainly not a pattern, although i just switched to OOTP 20 from 19, last week. I have however made plenty of trades so this does seem to be a one off.

krownroyal83 · 07-04-2019, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rudel.dietrich

Looks like a salary dump

If it is a salary dump it would be a dumb time to do it. He's already been paid most of his salary this season and they are in the last playoff spot. The off season would make more sense.

krownroyal83 · 07-04-2019, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBLCardinals

Other variables could be...

- Even though the SP has another year left it’s a player option...what if the other team believes he won’t be back?
- The OF is a 3 star/average talent. What is the state of the team OF?
- The OF appears to be in first year of Arbitration. He still has, I’m assuming, 2 more arb years left after this season? He’s also 27, so in prime years.

So your team gets an expensive ace for at least the rest of this season (no guarantee the player comes back since next season is player option...maybe he opts for bigger payday in FA?), in exchange for a league average talent player (3 stars) who has at least two guaranteed arb years left after this season. Seems reasonable?

If team is rebuilding surprised they didn’t request a top prospect instead?

You make some good points. The CF has 3 arb years left actually according to the team salary page. As far as the talent at CF, a 3 star guy is really good. I just question the timing of the trade more than anything. Seems like a bad time to trade their ace when they are in the last playoff spot. I'm willing to bet that the ace pitcher i just acquired will opt out of the last year of the contract as well considering based on his skill he should be making 30m+ in my fictional league. What else is shocking though is i was able to get a 3rd round pick for my 10th rounder. AI probably thought they were fleecing me.

rudel.dietrich · 07-05-2019, 12:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by krownroyal83

If it is a salary dump it would be a dumb time to do it. He's already been paid most of his salary this season and they are in the last playoff spot. The off season would make more sense.

I don't think it's a good trade at all. But it is all I can come up with.
Maybe the AI needs to negotiate extensions with some of it's players and needs that budget space clear.
The difference in salary is pretty massive. But the exchange of draft picks baffles me.
Without the draft pick swap this trade would make a lot more sense.

krownroyal83 · 07-05-2019, 12:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rudel.dietrich

I don't think it's a good trade at all. But it is all I can come up with.
Maybe the AI needs to negotiate extensions with some of it's players and needs that budget space clear.
The difference in salary is pretty massive. But the exchange of draft picks baffles me.
Without the draft pick swap this trade would make a lot more sense.

Looking at their team salary I don't see where they would need to clear money for extensions. In fact their now highest paid player is a 33 year old CL which I doubt they would keep if they are rebuilding. Like you said though the pick part of the trade doesn't make a lot of sense. The guy I traded away is hitting .311 since the trade. He was only hitting .231 with us but the sample size is very small.

I'll look back in a few seasons to see who actually one the trade.

NoOne · 07-05-2019, 01:01 AM

it's more a matter of how often you can do it. like others said, bad trades do happen. I'm pretty sure you can't do this sort of thing often -- if it truly is a one-sided trade from the beginning.

scouting, budgets, tendencies of gm/scout etc... unless you can find some magic combination based on the example above that can be repeated, it's just multiple combinations of various factors that occasionally allow this to happen x% of the time.

take it and run. there are plenty of times the tables are turned.

curious... backup, restore after successful but this time wait a week or month and try again. chance it's never accepted again.

jlech1805 · 07-05-2019, 10:52 AM

I've always thought this was the main flaw in the OOTP trade logic.

The trade in a vacuum is ok, but doesn't factor in the opportunity cost of making a different trade. I'm sure if other teams were to bid it would drive the cost up. I wonder if the game could add in a loop to the trade logic. Once a deal reaches acceptable on the AI side they should shop around the rest of the league to ensure they are getting top price.

Drstrangelove · 07-05-2019, 04:26 PM

It might matter how the AI was told to value the players. How much is ratings, how much is current year, etc.

But this is I think how the AI sees it:

A) the pitcher costs ~$ 8 million per WAR (extrapolating the current and prior 2 seasons), he would earn $70 million for 9 WAR.

B) the OF costs ~$ 4 million per WAR (earning $17 million for 4 WAR.)

That makes the AI team better in the long run because it gets much cheaper WAR and frees up cash to do other things like splurge on free agents, draft picks, or simply to extend players. I would not call it a salary dump as they got not only a good player at a low price, but they'll have him for 3 more years. This is a common real life strategy. The value of a 10th round draft pick is next to nil, but a 3rd round pick might also be low if the drafts are expected to be poor. Impossible to say without data. But in my league an early 3rd rounder OF will be ~40-43. Otoh, a 3 star player is a late first rounder for me. It's not so bad if there's 3 star players in the pipeline.

This is likely a good trade for the AI. It's unlikely to see a 3rd rounder that is 3 stars, and it would have lost the pitcher regardless as it would never have resigned him. They essentially traded a crap shoot 3rd round pick for a guaranteed and fully developed 3 star player (1st round pick.) This is a type of trade (from the human POV) that is made because the team needs the player to make the playoffs. In some cases, it's made to ensure the team can win the playoffs. But it's a short term gain that's paid for by not only not having the 3 star player in the lineup for 3 more years, but potentially not being able to QO the player and get a supplemental.

Drstrangelove · 07-05-2019, 04:44 PM

It might matter how the AI was told to value the players. How much is ratings, how much is current year, etc.

But this is I think how the AI sees it:

A) the pitcher costs ~$ 8 million per WAR (extrapolating the current and prior 2 seasons), he would earn $70 million for 9 WAR.

B) the OF costs ~$ 4 million per WAR (earning $17 million for 4 WAR.)

That makes the AI team better in the long run because it gets much cheaper WAR and frees up cash to do other things like splurge on free agents, draft picks, or simply to extend players.

I would not call it a salary dump as they got not only a good player at a low price, but they'll have him for 3 more years. This is a common real life strategy.

The value of a 10th round draft pick is next to nil, but a 3rd round pick might also be low if the drafts are expected to be poor. Impossible to say without data.

This is likely a good trade for the AI. It's unlikely to see a 3rd rounder that is 3 stars, and it would have lost the pitcher regardless as it would never have resigned him. They essentially traded a crap shoot 3rd round pick for a guaranteed and fully developed 3 star player.

It is unclear if this is a good trade for the human. If the team doesn't do any better with the short term expensive pitcher, it's effectively traded an inexpensive 3 star player for 3rd round crap shoot. This is even more of a problem if there isn't a surplus OF already in the pipeline.

NotMuchTime · 07-05-2019, 04:58 PM

I wouldn't say 'fleeced'. It's basically a fairly decent Center fielder, who is under team control for the next 2/3 years and pick #10 for pick #3. Depending on the draft class, it might not be the AI who was 'fleeced'.

damientheomen3 · 07-08-2019, 08:56 AM

I haven't played OOTP20 yet, but I know in the past the AI doesn't always do great at valuing draft picks. I had to ban myself from trading for/away draft picks as a house rule in my short career leagues as a result.

07-04-2019, 11:17 AM	#2
Ty Cobb Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Grayling, MI Posts: 3,940 Blog Entries: 66	Ryan for Fregosi...need I say more? In real life, sometimes GMs make stupid decisions. You may have gotten lucky with this. See if it becomes a pattern. If this is a one time bungle, it was luck a la the Ryan trade. If it's a pattern, you may want to talk to the development team about AI logic issues. __________________ “What’s the most you ever lost on a coin toss?” “Everyone is an atheist until Templars begin marching in the rain.” Absinthe makes the heart grow fonder. It is usually futile to try to talk facts and analysis to people who are enjoying a sense of moral superiority in their ignorance.—Thomas Sowell "Alinsky works for me now."

07-04-2019, 11:29 AM	#4
Findest2001 All Star Reserve Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Boston Posts: 960	Or maybe the player they got fits their team philosophy better (style and personality) __________________

07-05-2019, 01:01 AM	#12
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	it's more a matter of how often you can do it. like others said, bad trades do happen. I'm pretty sure you can't do this sort of thing often -- if it truly is a one-sided trade from the beginning. scouting, budgets, tendencies of gm/scout etc... unless you can find some magic combination based on the example above that can be repeated, it's just multiple combinations of various factors that occasionally allow this to happen x% of the time. take it and run. there are plenty of times the tables are turned. curious... backup, restore after successful but this time wait a week or month and try again. chance it's never accepted again. Last edited by NoOne; 07-05-2019 at 01:02 AM.

07-05-2019, 04:26 PM	#14
Drstrangelove Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 346	It might matter how the AI was told to value the players. How much is ratings, how much is current year, etc. But this is I think how the AI sees it: A) the pitcher costs ~$ 8 million per WAR (extrapolating the current and prior 2 seasons), he would earn $70 million for 9 WAR. B) the OF costs ~$ 4 million per WAR (earning $17 million for 4 WAR.) That makes the AI team better in the long run because it gets much cheaper WAR and frees up cash to do other things like splurge on free agents, draft picks, or simply to extend players. I would not call it a salary dump as they got not only a good player at a low price, but they'll have him for 3 more years. This is a common real life strategy. The value of a 10th round draft pick is next to nil, but a 3rd round pick might also be low if the drafts are expected to be poor. Impossible to say without data. But in my league an early 3rd rounder OF will be ~40-43. Otoh, a 3 star player is a late first rounder for me. It's not so bad if there's 3 star players in the pipeline. This is likely a good trade for the AI. It's unlikely to see a 3rd rounder that is 3 stars, and it would have lost the pitcher regardless as it would never have resigned him. They essentially traded a crap shoot 3rd round pick for a guaranteed and fully developed 3 star player (1st round pick.) This is a type of trade (from the human POV) that is made because the team needs the player to make the playoffs. In some cases, it's made to ensure the team can win the playoffs. But it's a short term gain that's paid for by not only not having the 3 star player in the lineup for 3 more years, but potentially not being able to QO the player and get a supplemental. Last edited by Drstrangelove; 07-05-2019 at 04:43 PM.

07-05-2019, 04:58 PM	#16
NotMuchTime Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 150	I wouldn't say 'fleeced'. It's basically a fairly decent Center fielder, who is under team control for the next 2/3 years and pick #10 for pick #3. Depending on the draft class, it might not be the AI who was 'fleeced'. Last edited by NotMuchTime; 07-05-2019 at 06:44 PM.

07-04-2019, 01:14 AM	#1
krownroyal83 All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 905	Just fleeced the AI and i'm not sure how to feel about it Unless i'm totally wrong this seems like a huge fleecing by me Top picture is the guy i traded for. His team is currently clinging to the last playoff spot. He's making 23.2m this season, and has one season left on his contract after this one for the same amount, which happens to be a player option. I double checked by turning on scouting to 100% and he is in fact a 4 1/2 star pitcher. The second player is an above average CF who's done ok for us so far offensively and has done well defensively. He's only 3 stars though. I don't get this move at all. The team I traded with is currently listed as "rebuilding" and their scout is only listed as "Average" at scouting major leagues. To top it off, the trade also included my 10th round pick for their 3rd round pick. I have trading on hard/neutral. The team I traded with wasn't close to going over their budget. I can't really make sense of it. Attached Images

07-04-2019, 11:24 AM	#3
eldur00 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 506	If they're rebuilding, they got the younger, cheaper player...isn't that something a rebuilding team would do ? Of course there's the picks but even then... Last edited by eldur00; 07-04-2019 at 11:25 AM.

07-04-2019, 01:13 PM	#5
CBLCardinals OOTP Roster Team Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 1,504	Other variables could be... - Even though the SP has another year left it’s a player option...what if the other team believes he won’t be back? - The OF is a 3 star/average talent. What is the state of the team OF? - The OF appears to be in first year of Arbitration. He still has, I’m assuming, 2 more arb years left after this season? He’s also 27, so in prime years. So your team gets an expensive ace for at least the rest of this season (no guarantee the player comes back since next season is player option...maybe he opts for bigger payday in FA?), in exchange for a league average talent player (3 stars) who has at least two guaranteed arb years left after this season. Seems reasonable? If team is rebuilding surprised they didn’t request a top prospect instead?

07-04-2019, 02:07 PM	#6
rudel.dietrich Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Zürich, Switzerland Posts: 8,608 Infractions: 1/0 (0)	Looks like a salary dump

07-05-2019, 10:52 AM	#13
jlech1805 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 51	I've always thought this was the main flaw in the OOTP trade logic. The trade in a vacuum is ok, but doesn't factor in the opportunity cost of making a different trade. I'm sure if other teams were to bid it would drive the cost up. I wonder if the game could add in a loop to the trade logic. Once a deal reaches acceptable on the AI side they should shop around the rest of the league to ensure they are getting top price.

07-05-2019, 04:44 PM	#15
Drstrangelove Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 346	It might matter how the AI was told to value the players. How much is ratings, how much is current year, etc. But this is I think how the AI sees it: A) the pitcher costs ~$ 8 million per WAR (extrapolating the current and prior 2 seasons), he would earn $70 million for 9 WAR. B) the OF costs ~$ 4 million per WAR (earning $17 million for 4 WAR.) That makes the AI team better in the long run because it gets much cheaper WAR and frees up cash to do other things like splurge on free agents, draft picks, or simply to extend players. I would not call it a salary dump as they got not only a good player at a low price, but they'll have him for 3 more years. This is a common real life strategy. The value of a 10th round draft pick is next to nil, but a 3rd round pick might also be low if the drafts are expected to be poor. Impossible to say without data. This is likely a good trade for the AI. It's unlikely to see a 3rd rounder that is 3 stars, and it would have lost the pitcher regardless as it would never have resigned him. They essentially traded a crap shoot 3rd round pick for a guaranteed and fully developed 3 star player. It is unclear if this is a good trade for the human. If the team doesn't do any better with the short term expensive pitcher, it's effectively traded an inexpensive 3 star player for 3rd round crap shoot. This is even more of a problem if there isn't a surplus OF already in the pipeline.