Football thoughts - week 17

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by thehef

In Reid & Smith's defense, ........

Regardless, Reid & Smith have consistently reached this level & no further.I'm a firm believer you don;t fire a winning coach unless you know you can do better. But I'm saying I have no faith in this combo to every seriously be a contender. THe fact that only 4 times since the 30's has an NFL team lost an 18 pt half time lead in the playoffs & these 2 were involved in half of those makes you think they just aren't aren't going to get a ring.

[rudel.dietrich]

Well theee out of four is not bad for my picks.


The AFC wildcard teams were all just terrible to behold. Buffalo had no buisnsss being in the playoffs. Jacksonville if they go down by 10 the game looks over.
Bortles being called a game manager is giving him too much credit.
KC is well...KC and Tennessee has a good run game but New England will put 8 men in the box and force fhem to pass which it looks like they cannot.

I could see Jacksonville with a chance if they get a super defensive effort. But I see nothing stopping New England unless their offensive line falls apart like it did in Denver two years ago.

As for the NFC. Who the hell knows. Nick Foles is awful. The Falcons are a bi polar team.

Minnesota looks like perhaps the best team left but Case Keenum?
Why not

I am not counting out New Orleans though. This run game and screen passing game has extended Brees career and they look good on offense.

I will think about my picks a bit more but my early prediction is New England vs Minnesota SB.

If Brady can be protected and not pressured I see him getting his sixth ring.

[TribeFanInNC]

Originally Posted by rudel.dietrich

The AFC wildcard teams were all just terrible to behold. Buffalo had no buisnsss being in the playoffs. Jacksonville if they go down by 10 the game looks over. Bortles being called a game manager is giving him too much credit.

Yeah, I watched a bit of that game and it was horrible. I think the fact that it was almost scoreless at half says it all. Both QBs are just bad.

I think maybe NO might be the best team in the NFC. Most balanced. The only argument I can make against them would be playing in cold weather doesn't favor them.

[ukhotstove]

Falcons @ Eagles = Falcons

I’m going Falcons, Philadelphia aren’t as good without Wentz Atlanta as the experience so despite the Eagles having homefield advantage I think Atlanta as too much for them.

Titans @ Patriots = Patriots

Titans poor on the road New England almost unbeatable at home and not tasted defeat since the Ravens play off wise at home. Only thing in favour of Tennessee is the Patriots are due a defeat but a shock if it’s this week.

Jaguars @ Steelers = Jaguars

I know I shouldn’t as when an underdog defeats a favourite then they face each other again the favourite beats them easily, however I think the Steelers record flatters them in 2 wins against the Browns they only won by a combined 7 pts, in their last 6 games they’ve only beaten Houston by more than 4 pts so if Jacksonville keep it close they win.

Saints @ Vikings = Vikings

I think this is the flick a coin one and one that wouldn’t surprise me if the Saints win, only thing that swung my vote was homefield advantage and one that I’d keep away from wager wise.

[MBarrett]

3 out of 4 last round, thank Andy Reid.

Falcons over Eagles
Saints over Vikings
Pats over Titans
Steelers over Jags

[TribeFanInNC]

Originally Posted by MBarrett

Falcons over Eagles
Saints over Vikings
Pats over Titans
Steelers over Jags

Agree. I don't even know the point spreads but Pats and Steelers cover easy unless there is sideways snow.

[rudel.dietrich]

I will bet on Atlanta vs Philadelphia and New England vs Tennessee but the other two may be stay aways from me besides looking at some fun prop bets.


Jacksonville is not good but with that defense if they can make it an ugly grind it out game I would not be shocked if they won.
I would say Pittsburgh is better but with injuries and the Jacksonville defense I don't see them as a lock.
If Pittsburgh goes up by 10 at any point I would say game over since Jacksonville at no point wants Bortles to do anything other than hand off and do check downs. He is a liability at any point to throw one up for grabs.


But they have a stellar defense and enough of a run game to ball control and kick field goals to a victory.


New Orleans vs Minnesota is just a toss up.
Minnesota also has a great defense but New Orleans may have the most complete offense. Brees can go deep a few times at his age but also has a running game and lots of weapons out of the backfield to gain yards and control the ball.
I like their offense.


And Keenum has had a nice year when I looked up his stats but until he proved he wrong he is still Case Keenum. I just don't see a SB QB there until he actually does it.
But with their defense he may not have a lot to do besides not turn the ball over and make a handful of throws.

[TheMaus2]

If Brad Johnson could do it, I think Keenum could do it. Plus, they have Teddy Bridgewater waiting in the wings.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by Airdrop01

The whole thing was fluky. I mean, it’s just crazy. The Marriota pass to himself. The points on a drive that was stopped but saved by a delay of game penalty. The one sure fumble on a sack by Johnson that was called forward progress that allowed a FG. (A fumble on a sack is impossible if that was the correct call...truth is Tripletts crew is one of the worst at controlling games and he probably didn’t even see the fumble.). Then the safety which was called back by alleged forward progress, even though guaranteed if a pass made that it would’ve counted.

Chiefs should have won, but man that whole comeback was fluky. I don’t know what the KC fans did to deserve this, but that’s 8 in a row now.

A quick and good read:

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2018/...-chiefs-season

You're probably right. I just saw the replay and that was a fumble. They probably just didn't see it.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by TheMaus2

If Brad Johnson could do it, I think Keenum could do it. Plus, they have Teddy Bridgewater waiting in the wings.

Keep in mind that QB is more important now than it was back then. Brad Johnson had an elite D or close to it. I'm not sure Minnesota qualifies. We've only had one Elite D since that time, the Seahawks. The salary cap put an end to them. Now the good QB just pick apart average to "good" defenses.

[TribeFanInNC]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

Keep in mind that QB is more important now than it was back then. Brad Johnson had an elite D or close to it. I'm not sure Minnesota qualifies. We've only had one Elite D since that time, the Seahawks. The salary cap put an end to them. Now the good QB just pick apart average to "good" defenses.

Yeah, I think Brees and Ryan are both good enough to beat the Vikings.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by TribeFanInNC

Yeah, I think Brees and Ryan are both good enough to beat the Vikings.

Possible. I don't know how good the Vikings defense is.

[thehef]

I'm thinking that in the NFC, the four remaining teams are pretty evenly matched, and any one of the four could make the SB, but will then lose. (If NO or Atl were playing at home this weekend, then I think either one would then be the NFC favorite.)

In the AFC, however, it's a foregone conclusion that NE and Pitt will face off a week from Sunday, with the winner taking the Lombardi Trophy two weeks later. Anything else would be an upset, tho upsets do happen...

Anyone see it differently?

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by thehef

I'm thinking that in the NFC, the four remaining teams are pretty evenly matched, and any one of the four could make the SB, but will then lose. (If NO or Atl were playing at home this weekend, then I think either one would then be the NFC favorite.)

In the AFC, however, it's a foregone conclusion that NE and Pitt will face off a week from Sunday, with the winner taking the Lombardi Trophy two weeks later. Anything else would be an upset, tho upsets do happen...

Anyone see it differently?

Take note that Atlanta is favored away.

I would agree with you if Wentz was the Philly QB. I'm not sure about Foles.

I also think the Saints are as good or better than any AFC team. I wish I watched Minnesota play more to determine how good their D is, but I guess I'll have a better idea after this week.

Keep an eye on the Jags/Pitt game. Roethlisberger can put on a show against averages defenses. He's going to have a little more trouble this game.

[ukhotstove]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

Keep an eye on the Jags/Pitt game. Roethlisberger can put on a show against averages defenses. He's going to have a little more trouble this game.

5 interceptions in week 5 against Jacksonville, yes the Steelers are favourites but I’m surprised with people thinking they just need to turn up to beat the Jags. Also in that game Bortles passed for 95 yds, the final score 30-9 to Jacksonville.

[Cobra Mgr]

Which means all Pitt's O has to do is just not hurt itself. Cause Jax's O can't hurt them.

[thehef]

2-2 picking last week's winners... 3-1 vs the spread...

This week:

• Patriots for the win and giving the points (-13). Lotta points to give but 35-10 wouldn't surprise. 27-20 would.
• Eagles. I really think this game is a tossup so Philly for the win is just a gun-to-the-head pick. Given that, I'll take the Iggles & the 3 points.
• Steelers for the win and giving the 7 pts. This game c/b somewhat close with Pitt still winning by 10 or so...
• Vikings for the win but I'll take the Saints +5. Would not be surprised to see the Saints win it...

None of the possible NFC title game matchups would surprise me. Anything other than NE-Pitt would.

[ukhotstove]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

Which means all Pitt's O has to do is just not hurt itself. Cause Jax's O can't hurt them.

Not sure about that, only 1 of the Steelers interceptions was in the Jags territory so nothing saying if the other 4 interceptions had not happened Pittsburgh would have scored on them and the Jags did score 17 points without the defence scoring. I’ve picked the Jags but like I previously said when an underdog beats the favourite then there’s a rematch usually the favourite takes the underdog apart but still think it’s a blinkered view people thinking the Steelers only have to turn up.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by ukhotstove

Not sure about that, only 1 of the Steelers interceptions was in the Jags territory so nothing saying if the other 4 interceptions had not happened Pittsburgh would have scored on them and the Jags did score 17 points without the defence scoring. I’ve picked the Jags but like I previously said when an underdog beats the favourite then there’s a rematch usually the favourite takes the underdog apart but still think it’s a blinkered view people thinking the Steelers only have to turn up.

People tend to not see past a good offense because rarely do we see good Ds these days. I've watched the Jags a few times and their D looked good, but they didn't blow my hair back. But again, I haven't watched them enough to get a good idea. If their D is as good as people say it is, Pitt has a good shot at losing this game. Now as for the Jags offense? Well, that might hurt them more than Pittsburgh.

[Bluenoser]

3/4 last week

Falcons
Patriots
Steelers
Saints