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Old 10-11-2019, 09:56 PM   #1
thehef
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The enigma of Clayton Kershaw in the postseason...

The consensus is that he's a choker. Clearly, when comparing his long regular season of record of dominance to his postseason numbers - and to those of others who have excelled in the postseason - he comes up short. Way short. He's a disappointment, clearly. But is he a choker?

Prior to this season, he's appeared in 30 postseason games, with an ERA of 4.32 over 152 postseason innings. Not horrible. Certainly not great. Kinda average, and certainly below the lofty standards he set during his regular seasons.

Unquestionably, though, he's had some shining moments in the playoffs. Games where he was dominant and got the win. That relief appearance against the Nats to clinch the series a few years ago. How does he do that stuff if he's a choker? Case in point:

In one of his memorable failures - in the 2014 Division Series opener against the Cards - he pitched six innings of 2-hit ball (two solo homers), striking out 8 and walking none. To that point, the Dodgers were up, 6-2. Then in the seventh inning he allowed four straight singles before getting a strikeout, followed by another single, another strikeout, and then a bases-clearing double that marked the end of his day. By the time his reliever allowed a homer, Kershaw had given up 6 earned runs in the inning, and 8 for the game. Certainly an epic meltdown. Serious questions as to why Mattingly left him in so long (consider that by the time Kershaw had allowed four straight singles and the score was 6-3, he was at 93 pitches and while that number itself would not suggest a tired ace, combined with the results of the most-recent 4 batters, "tiring" would seem to be a logical conclusion). At any rate, if this was a "choke job" then how do we explain his relative dominance through the first six innings? Strange.

Another case in point: Last year, game 1 vs the Brewers in the LCS, Kershaw lays an egg, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) in three innings of what would eventually be a 5-4 loss. Five days later in game 5, with the series tied at 2 and the Dodgers needing a win to avoid going back to Milwaukee down 3-2 (and coming on the heels of his flop in game one), he tosses 7 innings of 3-hit ball, giving up just a run and striking out nine. Which of those two games in the same series was more pressure-filled, and thus more-likely to result in a choke? But in which one did he throw a gem?

So if you take the above meltdown inning against the Cards (or, to be accurate, two-thirds of an inning) out of the equation, and factor out 6 other "peculiar" occurrences (totaling 12 innings and a whopping 37 earned runs), you're left with 140 innings with a 2.31 ERA in his postseason career. (Note: I'm not simply pulling out sub-par performances. Rather, I'm looking at mostly the ones where he otherwise pitched well but had a meltdown inning, or there were other unusual circumstances.)

The point here isn't to make excuses for Kershaw or to say that his stats should look any different than they do. My point is only to show that it is bizarre. By my count he has had 11 postseason starts that would be loosely classified as good-to-very-good, 7 that were so-so, and 7 that were poor. The 7 that were poor - and the 4.32 ERA - do in fact tell a story of someone who is not close to his very best in the postseason. Obviously. But the 11 that were rather good (in addition to two memorably outstanding, high-pressure, relief appearances) would argue against any notion of choking, I'd think. Especially when you consider that in the majority of 7 poor starts were solid performances up until a point and then... BOOM!

It's very strange.
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Old 10-11-2019, 10:39 PM   #2
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My theory: Players stats should be worse when they enter the postseason. You're playing good teams. Which means better competition. Which means fewer mistakes go missed. That's why I always felt playoff records shouldn't carry an asterisk. And that's why we praise players who do do well in the clutch. Because of the higher pressure, bigger stakes, harder opponents.

For Kershaw though, his failure is damning. The ace is soooooooo important in a short playoff series. The ace in cards is supposed to trump all others in a deck. That's why your #1 is called an ace. Your ace is not only expected to be clutch, he HAS to be clutch. When you can't depend on him, the entire team is changed.
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Old 10-12-2019, 02:31 PM   #3
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To be fair the dodgers have also come up short. I thought the dodgers would have won one with Kershaw. So i don't know if it's because he choked, or more likely the team choked.
I see Kershaw going to another team and then that team wins the World Series or the Dodgers win it without him. For whatever reason they just can't seem to win it together.
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Old 10-12-2019, 04:14 PM   #4
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The point here isn't to make excuses for Kershaw or to say that his stats should look any different than they do. My point is only to show that it is bizarre. By my count he has had 11 postseason starts that would be loosely classified as good-to-very-good, 7 that were so-so, and 7 that were poor. The 7 that were poor - and the 4.32 ERA - do in fact tell a story of someone who is not close to his very best in the postseason. Obviously. But the 11 that were rather good (in addition to two memorably outstanding, high-pressure, relief appearances) would argue against any notion of choking, I'd think. Especially when you consider that in the majority of 7 poor starts were solid performances up until a point and then... BOOM!

It's very strange.
How many of the good, so-so, and poor starts were on short rest?

How many of the runs in his poor starts scored when he wasn't in the game?
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Old 10-12-2019, 04:19 PM   #5
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Another thing to bear in mind about this season is that while Kershaw's regular season stats look good, closer inspection shows he's actually had a pretty poor year by his standards, imo.

Perhaps it's the juiced balls but he gave up a career high in home runs and had his worst FIP since his rookie season. He posted stats near his worst since 2012 in several categories, too.
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Old 10-12-2019, 04:35 PM   #6
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To be fair the dodgers have also come up short.
Very true. But a portion of that falls on Kershaw.

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I thought the dodgers would have won one with Kershaw. So i don't know if it's because he choked, or more likely the team choked.
Well, they came about as close as a team can come two years ago. If Kershaw & Jansen meet expections in crazy game 4, the Dodgers likely win in 6 games... If Roberts doesn't mismanage the pitching staff in multiple games... If Darvish isn't tipping his pitches in game 7... Kershaw, in that series, had a great start in the Game One win, and pitched four lights-out innings in relief on short rest in Game Seven. It was in Game 5 where he had one of the strange Kershaw-postseason games, where he was dominant for several innings (in this case, 3), and then lost it. So this is where I don't quite think the "choke" label applies (else how would he have been so dominant through three appearances in a single World Series, save for one inning? Rather than choke, it's strange...

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I see Kershaw going to another team and then that team wins the World Series or the Dodgers win it without him. For whatever reason they just can't seem to win it together.
I doubt he goes elsewhere unless it's after his current contract expires and he's a role player (should he choose to go that route; many stars don't).As a still solid but fading/aging pitcher, he's not worth his contract to another team.
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Old 10-12-2019, 05:11 PM   #7
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Another thing to bear in mind about this season is that while Kershaw's regular season stats look good, closer inspection shows he's actually had a pretty poor year by his standards, imo.

Perhaps it's the juiced balls but he gave up a career high in home runs and had his worst FIP since his rookie season. He posted stats near his worst since 2012 in several categories, too.
It's a known thing that over the last two seasons, Kershaw has lost velocity. And nobody is expecting he'll get it back. He's acknowledged working on becoming a different pitcher. He's no longer a dominant (during the regular season), that much everybody knows and stats certainly reveal. However, by 2019 regular season numbers, he's still a solid #3 guy on a contender. Which makes the collective decision (of Roberts and the front office) decision to not just use him - but announce to the world ahead of time that he would use him - in such a crucial stretch of the deciding game against the Nats a highly questionable one. If you're bringing in an in-his-prime Kershaw in that situation, that's one thing, but the current version of Kershaw - solid but not dominant and prone to giving up dingers? Definitely not an analytics-based decision.

IOW, Roberts did Kershaw - with respect to his legacy (as it is) - no favors by putting him into that situation. (Although rumblings are that Kershaw may have strong-armed his way into the following-Buehler-in-game-5 role.)
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:04 PM   #8
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It's a known thing that over the last two seasons, Kershaw has lost velocity. And nobody is expecting he'll get it back. He's acknowledged working on becoming a different pitcher. He's no longer a dominant (during the regular season), that much everybody knows and stats certainly reveal. However, by 2019 regular season numbers, he's still a solid #3 guy on a contender. Which makes the collective decision (of Roberts and the front office) decision to not just use him - but announce to the world ahead of time that he would use him - in such a crucial stretch of the deciding game against the Nats a highly questionable one. If you're bringing in an in-his-prime Kershaw in that situation, that's one thing, but the current version of Kershaw - solid but not dominant and prone to giving up dingers? Definitely not an analytics-based decision.

IOW, Roberts did Kershaw - with respect to his legacy (as it is) - no favors by putting him into that situation. (Although rumblings are that Kershaw may have strong-armed his way into the following-Buehler-in-game-5 role.)
Roberts makes a lot of questionable decisions re pitcher usage, imo.
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:31 PM   #9
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Roberts makes a lot of questionable decisions re pitcher usage, imo.
No moreso than any manager, really.

Anyone watching the 8th inning of Nationals Cardinals game 2?
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Old 10-12-2019, 08:47 PM   #10
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I doubt he goes elsewhere unless it's after his current contract expires and he's a role player (should he choose to go that route; many stars don't).As a still solid but fading/aging pitcher, he's not worth his contract to another team.
Well i didnt see Verlander going to Houston and winning one.
Verlander is still good but getting older. Kershaw isnt going to want to go to a bad team if he has a choice. A team like Houston looks like they could be a playoff team for quite a few years and getting a player like Kershaw would be more of band aid than depending on Kershaw. I dont think the Astros will do it but i could see a team like the Astros doing it.
It just seems like the Dodgers and Kershaw only work well in the regular season. At this point in his career it may come down to winning a championship over money. The dodgers window of opportunity may be slipping away.
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Old 10-13-2019, 11:12 AM   #11
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Kershaw is a good Dodger Pitcher BUT NO HALL OF FAME

His list of accomplishments is too short .... but someone will put numbers together and make look ???????
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Old 10-13-2019, 12:17 PM   #12
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Kershaw is a good Dodger Pitcher BUT NO HALL OF FAME
LOL

Some people
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Old 10-13-2019, 06:08 PM   #13
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Roberts makes a lot of questionable decisions re pitcher usage, imo.
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No moreso than any manager, really... Anyone watching the 8th inning of Nationals Cardinals game 2?
Can't really prove it, but after watching Dave Roberts manage for three consecutive postseasons, I'd have to say that, yes, he makes a lot of questionable decisions re pitcher usage. Moreso in the postseason. In fact, other than starting Bueller, almost every single pitcher usage decision in game five vs the Nats was questionable. But that is another topic.

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Well i didnt see Verlander going to Houston and winning one... Verlander is still good but getting older...
Verlander is a different pitcher. Still throwing high-velocity in his mid-30's. And, as good as he's been over the course of his career, he never really entered the realm of Kershaw's regular season dominance... Who knows what Kershaw's future holds as far as his performance. He could continue his transition from a power to pitcher to a finesse pitcher and perform anywhere from dominant to mediocre. Or maybe he doesn't make the full transition and flames out in a year or two... However, postseason results aside, it's worth noting that this past season's Kershaw was 16-5, 3.03 ERA, with 189 K's in 178 innings. So, even with diminished velocity, he's a pretty solid starter, and just 31 years old (which suggests he could remain at this level for at least a few years).

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Kershaw isnt going to want to go to a bad team if he has a choice.
Regardless of what happened vs the Nats, it's unlikely Kershaw is going anywhere. Dodger fans always come around despite his postseason failings. He' a guy most fans fume at in the moment, but overall feel sorry for and root for because he's a good guy. Unlikely the Nats series is the straw that breaks that camel's back, but who knows? Alot could depend upon whether Kersh fully accepts that not only is he no longer the ace of the staff (Bueller and/or Ryu is/are, although Ryu is likely gone since he's represented by Scott Boras). Not that his current level of performance is something to sneeze at, but when you've been the premier (regular season) pitcher of the last decade, it's a bit of a step down.

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The dodgers window of opportunity may be slipping away.
Well, on one hand, you never know what the future holds. Many factors could end the Dodgers run of seven consecutive postseason appearances. However, there's nothing specific to suggest the Dodgers' window is closing. They have multiple young players who are performing at a top level, plus several more who are poised to. So if you're making a short list of teams who should be contending over the next few years, you'd have to have the Dodgers on it. Even if it's a very short list.

As far as Kershaw's place on the Dodgers in the future, Bueller, Urias, and May are the foundations of the future rotation (in fact, we may see that next season). Maeda is signed through 2023, so he's likely a solid innings-eater for the next few years. Kersh is signed through 2021 so there's no reason to think he won't also be eating innings and pitching solidly for the next few years, and hopefully providing guidance to the youngsters while he's at the same time (as a buddy suggested) studying the careers of guys like Frank Tanana...

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Kershaw is a good Dodger Pitcher BUT NO HALL OF FAME ... His list of accomplishments is too short .... but someone will put numbers together and make look ???????
Ludicrous. If it's merely your opinion that he's not deserving of the HOF, then that's one thing (everyone's entitled to an opinion, regardless of its merits). But if you're predicting he won't make it, you are wrong. Postseason failings aside, his list of regular season accomps and stats are overwhelmingly HOF-worthy. He will be in the HOF.
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Old 01-14-2020, 02:59 AM   #14
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Thought it was worth revisiting this subject in light of the wrist-slap penalties given to the Astros today...

Many players with postseason failings in their past have had a shot at redemption and have come thru. Verlander and Price are recent examples that come to mind... For Kershaw, that chance very well might have been the 2017 postseason.

Consider that, after a dominant regular season where he led the league in wins and ERA (18-4, 2.31)...

- He had a solid if unspectacular single start in the NLDS, getting the win in Game One against the D-backs
- Against the Cubs in the NLCS, he had a decent start with a no-decision in the Game One win, and was dominant in the Game Five clincher.

So far, so good. Not a choke or clunker through three postseason starts...

- In Game One of the WS (at Dodger Stadium) he was dominant, going 7 innings, striking out 11, walking none, and allowing just three hits and a run. Exactly what you want from your Ace to open the World Series.

Then comes his next start, with a chance to put the Dodgers up three-games-to-two in Game Five. In Houston. The Astros TEE OFF on seemingly the entire Dodger pitching staff, including three guys - Kershaw, Morrow, and Maeda - who to that point had been lights out all postseason. Do we know definitively that Kershaw (and the other LA pitchers) was the victim of the Astros knowing what pitches were coming? No, we don't. But given all that we do know now, and what we know about Kershaw's 2017 postseason performance to that point (not to mention his stellar relief work in Game Seven in Dodger Stadium), it's not a reach to conclude that his chance to cement his legacy by adding not just a World Series ring, but possibly an WS MVP to his resume, was stolen by the Astros' cheating.

And now that his years of being a dominant pitcher are behind him, that was likely his final chance at a legacy-defining (legacy-saving?) postseason.
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Old 10-02-2020, 04:15 AM   #15
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Kershaw's dominant start last night (vs Brewers in Game 2 of their WC series), on the heels of his very effective regular season, prompted me to revisit & read through this thread... Too soon to say anything has changed, but not too soon to say that the enigma continues...

And there were certainly several things written in this thread that are somewhat laughable, including a few by me . And a few pretty solid predictions...

We'll see where the Dodgers, Kershaw, and his legacy go from here...
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