Perfect card odds

[Clavette]

I pulled 3 out of about 250-300 packs in beta

0 for about 60 so far in live

[Josquin]

Originally Posted by sansterre

Markus and the Devs have much, much, much better data on the effective probability of drawing a Perfect than we do (inasmuch as we can only look at 600-700 packs, where they're looking at 100k packs easy) and they equally have little incentive to lie about it

Which is why I started this thread in the first place.

If the devs are tracking that data, then they would be able to confirm whether I'm just an outlier or whether there is a more systematic issue.

I'm just making experimental observations and trying to interpret them as best as I can.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by sansterre

…Jason Bay...

(cries out in horror)

Hey, hey, Jason Bay -
how many Mets did you strand today?

- Greg Prince (Faith and Fear in Flushing)

[zrog2000]

Originally Posted by Josquin

Which is why I started this thread in the first place.

If the devs are tracking that data, then they would be able to confirm whether I'm just an outlier or whether there is a more systematic issue.

I'm just making experimental observations and trying to interpret them as best as I can.

They have confirmed it in every thread like this one.

[sansterre]

Originally Posted by Josquin

Which is why I started this thread in the first place.

If the devs are tracking that data, then they would be able to confirm whether I'm just an outlier or whether there is a more systematic issue.

I'm just making experimental observations and trying to interpret them as best as I can.

That's fair. But I think Markus confirmed the current odds in Post #3 of this Thread. Was that insufficient for you?

[Josquin]

Originally Posted by sansterre

That's fair. But I think Markus confirmed the current odds in Post #3 of this Thread. Was that insufficient for you?

It was sufficient. If you look further down, the rest of it was my providing additional evidence in response to the "small sample size" accusation by another forum member.

[Orcin]

The most shocking thing in this thread is that you nonchalantly mention that you (sansterre) have opened 700 packs.

[Orcin]

And this is why you keep opening packs...




I have opened 61 packs by the way, and this is my one and only perfect so far.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

And this is why you keep opening packs...

(drools)

Y-You don't really need that one, though, do you? Y-You get along fine without Jake, don't you?

[STLRS95]

Are the odds 1/1000 per pack or per card? I see a lot of people saying 1 perfect card per 1000 cards pulled but I have always believed the odds were per pack like with real baseball cards.

Any confirmation anywhere whether it is pack or card odds?

[STLRS95]

Originally Posted by Orcin

And this is why you keep opening packs...

Attachment 590890


I have opened 61 packs by the way, and this is my one and only perfect so far.

Nice pull!

[sansterre]

Originally Posted by STLRS95

Are the odds 1/1000 per pack or per card? I see a lot of people saying 1 perfect card per 1000 cards pulled but I have always believed the odds were per pack like with real baseball cards.

Any confirmation anywhere whether it is pack or card odds?

1/1000 is per card. 1/200 per pack.

[sansterre]

Originally Posted by Orcin

The most shocking thing in this thread is that you nonchalantly mention that you (sansterre) have opened 700 packs.

That's for Beta; live I couldn't be at more than about 30 or so.

[STLRS95]

Originally Posted by sansterre

1/1000 is per card. 1/200 per pack.

Not trying to be a pain but can you point me to where it says that? I don't have the game in front of me so can't see the pack buying page.

[sansterre]

Originally Posted by STLRS95

Not trying to be a pain but can you point me to where it says that? I don't have the game in front of me so can't see the pack buying page.

Hmmm. I don't have the game in front of me either. As I recall the pack buying screen lists the odds, and shows Perfects as 1 in 1000 (not sure of exact wording).

Each pack is 6 cards, 1 guaranteed card (either Bronze or Gold depending on pack type) and 5 random cards. So 1 in 1000 per card x 5 becomes 5 in 1000 becomes 1 in 200 per pack.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Westheim

(drools)

Y-You don't really need that one, though, do you? Y-You get along fine without Jake, don't you?

I think I might keep it.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by sansterre

1/1000 is per card. 1/200 per pack.

That is not actually correct. The true odds for a perfect in a pack are:

1 - (0.999^5)

Not important on a per-pack basis, but since people open them by the hundreds, the error adds up fast.

[STLRS95]

Originally Posted by sansterre

Hmmm. I don't have the game in front of me either. As I recall the pack buying screen lists the odds, and shows Perfects as 1 in 1000 (not sure of exact wording).

Each pack is 6 cards, 1 guaranteed card (either Bronze or Gold depending on pack type) and 5 random cards. So 1 in 1000 per card x 5 becomes 5 in 1000 becomes 1 in 200 per pack.

I understand the math you are using I just wish they distinguished on the page per pack or per card odds. I collected sports cards for decades and never have seen odds be on a per card basis, always a per pack basis. I know this is different being a game but it seems strange to show the odds per card if that is what they are doing.

[Josquin]

Originally Posted by sansterre

Hmmm. I don't have the game in front of me either. As I recall the pack buying screen lists the odds, and shows Perfects as 1 in 1000 (not sure of exact wording).

Each pack is 6 cards, 1 guaranteed card (either Bronze or Gold depending on pack type) and 5 random cards. So 1 in 1000 per card x 5 becomes 5 in 1000 becomes 1 in 200 per pack.

FWIW, my pack-opening data confirms the "per-card" odds for everything except perfects. I got very close to the expected number of diamonds and golds. Just those darn perfects keep eluding me.

[Dogberry99]

It would be nice if the pack buying screen explicitly stated whether the odds were per card or per pack