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OOTP 20 - General Discussions Everything about the newest version of Out of the Park Baseball - officially licensed by MLB.com and the MLBPA. |
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11-07-2019, 10:07 PM | #61 | ||||||
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I do think the ball in the hole is accounted for as part of the "ton of variables" like fielding ability and arm etc. There is a percentage chance of the ball going to short, directly to or deep between 3b and ss etc, and then fielding, speed, arm abilities are figured in as the play is modeled. The game then tries to "make" a pbp and video to represent that play, it's been that way since at least rewrite after v6.5 with pbp and only recently video. Most pbp complaints have come with the addition of video and the fact the video currently doesn't have enough options to accurately represent the actual result of the play. That's why you get the weird looking plays, IE held ground balls, doubles on a ball that looks like it should be a single. It's all a work in progress and will get better version to version. Before the addition of video the pbp was enough as we made the picture in our head of how the play would look. Adding a new pbp module or "fixing" the pbp is not going to change any of the results, they are correct. It is only going to change the description we read or the video to better show what happened. |
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11-08-2019, 09:01 AM | #62 |
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Another thing I've never seen: runner makes the last out at third *before* a runner scores.
Taking it for granted now that the run will count whenever the throw goes to third and a runner is coming home |
11-08-2019, 05:22 PM | #63 |
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I am not positive, but I do think I saw this happen... maybe one time in recent memory.
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11-08-2019, 10:18 PM | #64 | |
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My guess is that with things like this, you run the risk of having a frequency much higher than real life. So it may come down to a decision between having it happen zero percent of the time, which isn't really that far off from something that only happens once every 1000 games, or it happens once every fifty games. I don't know programming but just from a logical viewpoint, I can see how it might take a great deal of "finesse" in how you code OOTP just to change a frequency of an event from once every thousand games to once every 100 games. Leaving some of the more rare events in MLB out of the programming for OOTP may just be out of necessity if it is very difficult to get an event's frequency down to an accuracy level that is something like +/- five events per 100,000 games. |
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11-08-2019, 10:21 PM | #65 |
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I take that for granted in MLB too. How often do you see a play made at third which prevents a runner from scoring? One could easily watch all 162 games for a team in a season in MLB and not see it happen once.
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11-08-2019, 10:23 PM | #66 | |
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So, rare [stuff] happens |
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11-08-2019, 10:29 PM | #67 |
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Not saying rare stuff doesn't happen. I see guys get in run downs. See guys get hit by line drives. See catcher's interference, etc. But not every rare event that can or has happened in MLB is available as a possible event in OOTP. My assumption is that it is much harder to code the frequency of a rare event in such a way as to seem realistic than it is to code something that happens more frequently, such as grounding out to the shortstop. If the frequency of grounding out to the shortstop is off a couple of percentage points, most people wouldn't notice. If the frequency of a rare event happens 2% of the time instead of 0.2% of the time, people will notice.
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11-09-2019, 07:53 PM | #68 | ||
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11-09-2019, 10:07 PM | #69 | |
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http://montybrewster.net/forums/view...p?f=23&t=30678 It includes a spreadsheet with raw numbers of runners who advance extra bases and runners who are thrown out. It's my experience working with the developers for a considerably long time that they very much care about the granular accuracy of this kind of data--even if they are a bit preoccupied with PT these days. I suspect they will be tweaking things in this area in V21, if nothing else...but, of course, that depends on the feature schedule and whatnot. The leaps and bounds that this game has improved in over the years should not be discounted or under-stated, and the reason for that is that Markus and Matt have always cared about making things as "right" as they can. Last edited by RonCo; 11-10-2019 at 09:46 AM. |
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11-09-2019, 10:09 PM | #70 |
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Note that these results will be highly dependent upon the ratings of the players who are in the specific league--which can vary heavily from league to league.
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11-10-2019, 05:54 AM | #71 | |
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11-10-2019, 08:48 AM | #72 |
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11-10-2019, 10:30 AM | #73 | |||
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Too me the pbp engine\model, whatever you want to call it, just adds flavor to the result. Rewriting or improving is not going to change any result it's only going to paint a clearer picture. The game engine is what will determine the result and is where any potential fix\tweak has to be made. With that in mind... The result of the play is correct no matter what the video shows, IE the double on a ball hit on a one hopper to the OF that looks to be a single to the eye. The pbp will show a double and no matter what is done to the pbp, more detail better description, but still a double, that won't change. It is the correct result as determined by the game engine. Accuracy in base running and how close or far off is still to be determined. I have provided actual OF assists per base as a place to start to find the answer. RonCo has provided some insight with his breakdown of the pbp with his script. RonCon noted, in his linked thread, that the pbp does not note a runner trying to stretch a single to a double (unless they are thrown out), they are simply singles or doubles, so we have no idea how many times runners actually try to stretch a single to a double. Are the attempts accurate, not shown in the pbp, and just not enough being thrown out? Or are the attempts too low? Maybe it's as simple a fix as upping the frequency of this play but then what are the knock-on effects? If you add outs at 2b do runs decrease across the league? How does the engine counter that? Quote:
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11-10-2019, 01:14 PM | #74 | |
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Guys thrown out at second after a single are a certain percentage of singles. That's what the game doesn't seem to be accurately modeling. |
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11-10-2019, 02:28 PM | #75 | |
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The league I'm running this script on is showing .16% of singles (.0016) have gotten thrown out stretching them into doubles. I'm pretty sure this is low, but I'd also be interested in how this number has changed over the years. I'm also pretty sure that this performance will be different from league to league depending on several variables. For someone like me, that's part of the beauty of this game--it's results can vary for many reasons--among them the talent levels in any particular league will cause it to be different from others. Regardless, I stand by my general statement that Markus and Mall will do their best to make the results "right" as long as the data is available, and to be honest, the fact that we're discussing such issues of whether guys are stretching singles to doubles often enough is a bit of a statement in itself as to how deep and engrossing this game is. |
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11-10-2019, 02:35 PM | #76 | |
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Is there a play in the engine that takes where the ball is hit, speed of runner, arm of OF and makes it a "runner advance" play and this is where we get the throw outs? Or does the engine, based on some real life data (yes, we're discussing if this data is wrong), decide this play is going to be a single and an out trying to advance? In the first case we'll only know how many are thrown out as those that are safe are simply doubles. In the second case there are no attempts at all just the game having a "real" number as a target. As you said a percentage of all singles. I certainly hope this is not the system as it opens it up to all players and doesn't consider speed, arm etc. Nor should the game select only fast players and have them thrown out just to satisfy a number. I would like to think it uses the same or similar system it uses to go first th third or second to home. In either case I would think, it is a number that can be adjusted if Markus & Matt agree there is a problem. |
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11-10-2019, 02:54 PM | #77 | |
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It has to happen a certain percentage of the time. Pull a number from an orifice - 1% of singles. But, you're right. It shouldn't must happen to a random 1%. So, there needs to be a 1% baseline. Then add on if it's: an aggressive baserunner, a poor baserunner, a strong-armed OFer, etc And subtract for the opposite. Last edited by CBeisbol; 11-11-2019 at 04:51 PM. |
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11-11-2019, 04:10 PM | #78 |
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11-11-2019, 04:53 PM | #79 | ||
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11-11-2019, 08:46 PM | #80 |
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OK. You learn something new every day. So it is just categorized as an assist? If so then it might be hard to parse that from other assists.
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