New Vlad Jr. Live Card

[atabakin]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

I haven't seen the card. I just know everyone complains whenever they think the devs manually adjust cards. And they have been very clear they don't do that. I trust them on that, because it's in their best interest. So if his card is rated too highly it's not because someone just decided to make him perfect...it's all automatic based on algorithms and projections.


I will concede that if his ratings show him as the best contact hitter in MLB, that is a bit too much. His projections are quite good, but not THAT good. If that is the case it's certainly possible that the algorithm needs some fine tuning around the edges or something. A player of his talent at that age is so incredibly rare, I imagine he's something of a corner case, and maybe the system isn't handling it perfectly.

I agree with you. I don't think the devs juiced his card. But his contact is 100 (correct me if I'm wrong, someone, as I'm away from my computer), and I think he broke the algorithm.

[X3NEIZE]

This has to be a mistake... I mean, honestly, we can sit here and debate if he even deserves a Future Legend 100 card.... I don't think he does at all, but who the heck am i right? well... he just made his debut less than a week ago and he's got one RBI... how can he have a debut 100 card?

Seriously... this is a DB bug, has to be.

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by atabakin

I agree with you. I don't think the devs juiced his card. But his contact is 100 (correct me if I'm wrong, someone, as I'm away from my computer), and I think he broke the algorithm.

if he really has a 100 contact rating then I take back anything nice I said... that would be pretty ridiculous and not supported by the projections. He is projected to be a top 20 contact hitter. What elevates him to the next level, and why I think a 100 rated card is not ridiculous, is he's got absurd plate discipline skills for a 20 year old AND power too.

[Orcin]

Here's his ZIPS projection. I don't see how that supports a 100 CON rating. It might be close to a 100 OVR though IF he could play defense even a little.

[webdox]

He never quite achieved the greatness I thought his card would carry on my '19 Futures team so I am hoping this iteration is slightly better...

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Here's his ZIPS projection.

I still think a lot of people probably are not realizing just how strong those projections actually are. Projections are always on the conservative side. There's only 2 players projected to hit .300 this year, and Vlad is projected to reach that level pretty much his 2nd year at age 21?? That speaks quite highly of his prospect status as a contact hitter.

That being said, I still definitely would take issue with a 100 contact rating for THIS YEAR. Would be nice if someone could screenshot the card, since no one seems to be able to confirm his contact rating.

[dishnet34]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

Would be nice if someone could screenshot the card, since no one seems to be able to confirm his contact rating.

Here's the card:

[chazzycat]

wow OK yeah I take it back that is silly.

The players with the highest projected averages this year like Daniel Murphy and Mookie Betts have around 80 contact, and their projections are significantly better than Vlad, so I got no explanation.

[X3NEIZE]

Guerrero batting .152 and has a 100 card!

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by X3NEIZE

Guerrero batting .152 and has a 100 card!

Way too small of a sample size. If he keeps hitting like that for another week, I guess he will drop.

His initial ratings were selected to be close to his Future Legend card. Given the success recent top level rookies have had, I do not think that's unreasonable. And based on that the algorithm spat out a 100. I was surprised by that, too. But it is what it is. I would probably sell this card if I'd pull it now... but then again, based on his minor league numbers, maybe he goes on a tear and hits .340 the rest of the way. We'll see,

[X3NEIZE]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

Way too small of a sample size. If he keeps hitting like that for another week, I guess he will drop.

Well here's the logic... he already had a 100 card based on the assumptions that he would make one of the best hitters ever... his future legend card.. Fair enough lets accept that because it's a game...

Now the .152 sample size is small, sure, it's only a week, but his live card shouldn't be based on potential, should be based on small sample size, in reality it should reflect current state.

I just find it ludicrous that legends like Sabathia, Yogi Berra, Alex Rodriguez to name a few have peak cards of under 100 and this kid already has not one, but two 100 cards.... see my point?

[CurlyKarkovice]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

Way too small of a sample size. If he keeps hitting like that for another week, I guess he will drop.

His initial ratings were selected to be close to his Future Legend card. Given the success recent top level rookies have had, I do not think that's unreasonable. And based on that the algorithm spat out a 100. I was surprised by that, too. But it is what it is. I would probably sell this card if I'd pull it now... but then again, based on his minor league numbers, maybe he goes on a tear and hits .340 the rest of the way. We'll see,

I see the Zips projections above for Vladi Jr. are pretty awesome and they have them for 2020 and 2021. Are those years taken into account for the first Live Card rating? If so, that would explain why the talented rookies start out so high on the scale. Zips and other projections seem obsessed with docking veterans over 30 with age regression on current and future years. Which could explain why older guys hitting their projections can't get above Gold level.

[CurlyKarkovice]

https://library.fangraphs.com/the-be...-aging-curves/

Here's what I mean about aging curve for runs created study. It's steep to say the least Lol

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by X3NEIZE

his live card shouldn't be based on potential

This is the part I don't understand either. I thought live cards were supposed to represent THIS YEAR's version of the player. Why were ratings "selected" to be close to his future legend card? He is 20, so his peak is likely a few years out. And this fact is very much reflected in the projections. It really doesn't make much sense IMO.

[GlassGuyBob]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

This is the part I don't understand either. I thought live cards were supposed to represent THIS YEAR's version of the player. Why were ratings "selected" to be close to his future legend card? He is 20, so his peak is likely a few years out. And this fact is very much reflected in the projections. It really doesn't make much sense IMO.

While the average player peaks at 26-27, I believe that the numbers how that elite players typically peak much younger, 21-23.

The numbers he put up last year were so ridiculous for his age that there is every right to have a very strong LIVE card based on projections.

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by GlassGuyBob

While the average player peaks at 26-27, I believe that the numbers how that elite players typically peak much younger, 21-23.

The numbers he put up last year were so ridiculous for his age that there is every right to have a very strong LIVE card based on projections.

If you read my previous comments, you'll see I completely agree he should have a very strong live card. But 100 contact rating?

[Mikecouil]

This is the Pat Burrel effect. Burrel could have hit 70 homers per year with a 350 BA and still never lived up to the hype. Vlad plays in Toronto, a small market team, so though this is great for their team's national profile, there is no possible way he sustains the level of hype he's under right now.

We went through this the last couple of years with Byron Buxton in Minnesota. Unfortunately the guy gets hurt rolling out of bed so we've yet to even really see what he can do with a full season of at bats.

[mcdog512]

First I've seen him play is the last couple of nights and he looked pretty bad.

[X3NEIZE]

Originally Posted by mcdog512

First I've seen him play is the last couple of nights and he looked pretty bad.

He will be going down again soon if he keeps this up

[mcdog512]

Originally Posted by X3NEIZE

He will be going down again soon if he keeps this up

Yea, agree.