Worst to First - The Sequel

[NYY #23]

If not for a six game winning streak by the Arizona Diamondbacks the Mariners would have the best record in baseball at 46-32 after a 15-11 June.

Unfortunately things are still very close in the AL West as we lead the A's by just 4 1/2 games, and the Angels by 7. Even the Rangers are just 9 games behind.

We failed to come to terms with our fourth round pick Patrick Frazier, which was disappointing because we went above and beyond what he was looking for.

As we head in to July I'll be thinking long and hard about whether to be a buyer, or hold steady. I feel we could use another starting pitcher and centerfielder, but I'm not ready to look outside the organization just yet.

[rjl518]

hey...keep it up...my friend still has his rope you know...lol

[NYY #23]

Originally Posted by rjl518

hey...keep it up...my friend still has his rope you know...lol

Fear is a good motivator.

[NYY #23]

A 15-0 trouncing at the hands of the Royals yesterday narrowed our lead over the A's to just 1 game, and I hope that this is now the low point of our season on a day where we also lost Jason Heyward for the next three months.

The Mariners did sent six players to the All-Star game:

SP Pablo Cordero (9-4, 3.16 ERA)
SP Ubaldo Jimenez (11-5, 3.05 ERA)
MR Daniel Carey (5-2, 2 SV, 1.83 ERA)
CL Aroldis Chapman (2-2, 16 SV, 0.76)
2B Bobby Tavares (.289/.328/.431, 7 HR, 34 RBI)
LF Brit Smith (.291/.402/.531, 13 HR, 49 RBI)

It's because of that feeling that things are slipping away I completed a trade with the Braves sending RF Xuan Lang and two prospects, CF Freddy Cabrera and SP Dave Johnson, getting back CF Terry Nash.

It was a high price to pay, but Nash is a 24 year old centerfielder who is 11-57 (.193) since being called up this year. Last year Nash hit .298 with 7 home runs, so he has had some success in the majors to go along with his success in AAA. He'll strengthen our defense, and I hope will turn things around at the plate with some regular at-bats.

There may have been a couple better options, but ones that we couldn't afford either in terms of contract, or prospects.

[NYY #23]

I may have been a bit premature about hitting rock bottom, and hope this is the new low after going 9-16 for the month. That includes a three game winning streak to end the month.

We did lose a lot of close games in July though, and are now 7-15 in one run games. We haven't had luck on our side either, winning 5 games less than our expected record. We're now 5 1/2 games behind the Athletics in the AL West, and 3 games behind the Royals for the Wild Card.

One of the positives for us this month has been the play of newly acquired Terry Nash. It's a small sample size, but he's hitting .300 with a .375 on-base percentage in 13 games for the Mariners.

We'll be calling up SP prospect John Hester in August after he won Pitcher of the Month in AAA after going 4-0 with a 1.78 ERA. He's now 11-1 with a 1.76 ERA and has earned a shot in the bigs.

[NYY #23]

While July was a terrible month for the Mariners, August went a little better with a 15-14 record. August still was a rough month, losing several players to injury, including our ace, Ubaldo Jimenez. We've gotten most of the injured players back, but we'll be without Jimenez for the next three weeks.

We'll spend September chasing either the A's, who we trail by 5 1/2 games, or the Royals and White Sox in the Wild Card race.

[NYY #23]

A six game losing streak doomed the Mariners chances and we finished 82-80, 7 games out of the Wild Card and 11 games out in the AL West.

The Mariners finished 12-15 in September, and 0-3 in October. While we did get over .500, but still fell short of our goal.



Seattle Mariners - 75-87 (.463) 24 GB
2018 - Seattle Mariners - 77-85 (..475) 13 GB (Season Score - 26)
2019 - Seattle Mariners - 75-87 (.475) 25 GB (Season Score - 4)
2020 - Seattle Mariners - 82-80 (.506) 11 GB (Season Score - 32)

[NYY #23]

The first thing to tackle this offseason was our team options, needing to make a decision on Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Carrasco, Garlos Gonzalez, and Ubaldo Jimenez.

Tulowitzki really did have a pretty good year, but not $20 million good. We'll take the $1 million buyout and wish him luck. We also decided to let Carrasco and Gonzalez walk, despite both having decent years. I feel like there are better options out there, especially with Gonzalez' declining defensive skills.

The decision on Jimenez was a little bit tougher. He was very good (15-7, 2.64 ERA, 4.1 WAR) despite missing some time with injury. He also came back strong going 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA in September. His contract was front loaded, and I'm not positive we could do better so we'll take the risk and pay him $24.5 million next year.

Next up was resigning Pablo Cordero to a 1 year $934,000 extension. After going 10-10 with a 3.54 ERA he was solid, especially for that price.

Then last we came to an agreement on a contract extension for LF Brit Smith. Smith was arbitration eligible for the first time this year, after hitting .257 with a .365 on-base percentage with 21 home runs, 68 RBI, and a 5.9 WAR. We were going to offer $7.5 million, but he was willing to take a 5 year $64 million extension with the final year a player option. We agreed to the money, but will pay him just $5 million next year, $10 the year after, and $15 the third year with $16 guaranteed and a player option of $18 million the fifth year. It's risky if he bombs, but Heyward and his $21 million salary will finally be gone that year, and hopefully I will too.

[rjl518]

if at first you dont succeed...or second...or third...

[NYY #23]

Originally Posted by rjl518

if at first you dont succeed...or second...or third...

Or fourth, or fifth.

[NYY #23]

It was a rough offseason for the Mariners. We couldn't land any of our top targets this offseason despite our best efforts. We lost out on SP Luis Morales, CF Dexter Fowler, and SP Josh Collmenter, and we were outbid by the Twins for both Fowler and Collmenter. That left us scrambling to make improvements.

First off, gone are:

CF Carlos Gonzalez
SP Luis Clemente
SP Carlos Carrasco
RF Dan Floyd
SS Troy Tulowitzki

That's a total of 4.5 WAR.

Now let's take a look at our acquisitions -

SP Malcolm Jackson
3B Jose Martinez
SP Dave Gilbert
1B/OF Pedro Valles
LF Paul O'Connolly
LF Dave Thompson
MR Julian Ramos
C Welington Castillo

Jackson is coming back from an elbow injury, but was 4-4 with a 3.81 ERA post injury last year. Gilbert was 2-7 with a 5.53 ERA last year, but I think he can be a little better than that.

We signed Castillo to be our new backup catcher, while we signed former Twin Pedro Valles, and Paul O'Connolly and Dave Thompson as potential outfield options.

We'll see how Spring Training progresses, because that will help me decide who makes the Opening Day roster.

[NYY #23]

Heading into this season I didn't really know what to expect. My expectations were high last year, but we ended up fading in the end. This year my owner expects us to make the playoffs, and according to preseason predictions they are calling for us to go 89-73. Of course we are predicted to finish in third place with the A's and Rangers predicted to finish ahead of us.

So I expect the AL West to be tough, and after one month we're closely bunched at the top, just a game behind the A's, and a game ahead of the Rangers.

Our pitching and defense has been carrying us so far, and we really need our offense to come around.

[rjl518]

Im still watching these Mariners. Maybe this year will be it.

[NYY #23]

Originally Posted by rjl518

Im still watching these Mariners. Maybe this year will be it.

I hope so. I'm cautiously optimistic.

[NYY #23]

The Mariners went 17-12 in May to stay in the middle of the AL West race, just a game behind the A's. Our offense is starting to show some signs of life right now, and June will be an important month for the Mariners.

I'm really hoping that Brit Smith begins turning things around soon because after signing a 5 year contract extension he's hitting just .217 with 3 home runs. His walks are down, his strikeouts are up, and he's struggling.

Despite his struggles last year I still view Wilin Rosario as a key member of the team. He's 32 years old and in the final year of his contract and making $25 million this year. That's too much to pay, but we did come to terms on a one year $9 million extension which will keep him in Seattle one more year.

[NYY #23]

Drafting 17th overall the Mariners targeted the best available players. Up first was 18 year old SP Riley Baker in the first round, and 22 year old starting pitcher Lou Taylor in the second round. 3B Woody Carter was selected in the third round, with SP Sam Pettini and catcher Rex MacGregor rounding out the top five.

While we spent time drafting our future, the current version of the Mariners has gone 6-6 this month and is 2 games behind the A's, and 2 games ahead of the Red Sox in the Wild Card race.

[NYY #23]

A 16-11 month has the Mariners squeaking in to first place. Things feel like they are starting to gel in Seattle, although we are locked in a very tight race with the A's.

Last month I talked about Brit Smith's struggles, but this month let's talk about something positive. Terry Nash came over last year in a trade with the Braves as a potential centerfielder of the future. He proceeded to hit a very unimpressive .219. This year Nash has turned things around completing hitting .313 with a .365 OBP, adding 6 home runs and 13 stolen bases. He's played solid defense and has been worth 3.5 WAR.

We did pay a steep price for Nash though, and the three players that we gave up are all contributing in Atlanta. Lang (1.2), Cabrera (1.0), and Johnson (2.2) probably mean the Braves won this trade, but I don't have many complaints.

[NYY #23]

The Mariners got a tiny bit of breathing room with a 14-11 July and now lead the A's by 2 1/2 games. Not a big lead, but it's our largest of the year. Things of course are competitive and complicated in the American League though. Both the Orioles and Blue Jays are tied with us with a 60-44 record, meaning one slip and we could miss the playoffs.

With the races so close I chose to stand pat at the trading deadline. According to the OSA we've got slight weaknesses at shortstop, left field, and right field, and our one weakness is our rotation. Sure they may be over performing, but our rotation has done great this year. I couldn't find any obvious upgrades for the right price anyway. We'll look for improvements within.

Like LF Norm Bryant, who we'll recall from AAA today. He's our top prospect, and my sources say he's ready.

The Mariners sent SP John Hester, SP Ubaldo Jimenez, CL Aroldis Chapman, 1B Gary Lowe, and CF Terry Nash to the All-Star team.

Speaking of Gary Lowe, we did agree to terms on a three year $19 million extension that will buy out three years of arbitration.

Then finally the international amateur free agents is an area of mostly stayed out of so far. This year we went out and signed 18 year old LF Pedro Romero, who I consider the best in a strong crop of international amateurs this year.

[NYY #23]

August was just what the doctor ordered for the Mariners as we went 21-8 and took control of the AL West. We now lead the A's and Angels by 12 1/2 games. I feel pretty confident about our playoff chances.

We did suffer a pretty big blow when Brett Lawrie broke his kneecap and will be out the next 7-8 months. Let's hope Jose Martinez will be able to fill in.

Gary Lowe won the Batter of the Month Award after hitting .346 with 7 home runs, 16 RBI, and 27 runs scored.

We also agreed to terms on a 1 year $1.1 million extension for Dale Gilbert. With an 11-6 record and 3.40 ERA he's worth taking a shot on. We did hear from Ubaldo Jimenez wanting an extension. Unfortunately there is no way I'm giving a 37 year old a 4 year extension at $27 million per year. He's been great for us, but I don't think he'll be worth that much money.

[NYY #23]

A 10-19 end to the regular season provided the Mariners with an epic collapse, losing the AL West on the last day of the season when the A's beat us 3-0.



Luckily for the Mariners we have the Wild Card to fall back on, as we held off the Indians and Blue Jays. With the way we we're playing I'm confident we could have blown that too given another week or two.

In addition to the injury to Brett Lawrie we also lost two key members of our team, reliever Daniel Carey and starting pitcher Malcolm Jackson.

Regardless, we'll get ready to take on the 97-65 Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card Round.