The 2021 (and only 2021) Tampa Bay Rays

[Art Deco]

Just like Santa Ana...



The Rays are marching on to yet another ALCS as they laid the lumber to San Antonio in a 12-6 Game 4 victory to give them a 3-1 series win. Series MVP Danny Perez got things going in the second with a 3-run homer, Danny Rodriguez and Danny Arroyave homered in a 3-run third, and the rout was on as it was just too much Danny for San Antonio. The Alamos did pull within 6-4 in the 5th on a homer from the game's best hitter, Darius Williams, but Tampa Bay answered with 3 more in the 6th to dispel the ghosts of Davy Crockett. They'll now await the winner of Game 5 of the other ALDS, either Texas or Houston and that's because...



...those damn Astros won't die.

[Art Deco]

It's those damn Astros again:



Led tonight by former Ray Willie Gutierrez, the Astros have come all the way back from down 0-2 in the ALDS to beat their in-state rivals Texas to advance to the ALCS to face the Rays for the fourth straight season at this stage. Houston won in 2036 and 2038 (including a sweep last year) but the Rays got the better of them in 2037 before losing to Memphis in the World Series.

[Art Deco]

Those damn Astros...



After the past three seasons of ALCS matchups Rays fans were not fooled by Houston's paltry 84-win regular season total, 15 fewer than the Rays managed, and sure enough the Astros continued to give the Rays a hard time in the postseason by taking Game 1 of this year's ALCS 4-3 in 13 innings. The offense was fairly toothless, although they scored twice late to force extras, while the bullpen was very good until Walt Kelly finally ran out of gas in his third inning of work, giving up a pair of two-out singles to put Houston up 4-2. Danny Rodriguez got one back with a solo homer in the bottom of the inning and the Rays put the next two men on with one out, but back-to-back strikeouts ended the game and means that Ruben Cerrillo will need to be magnificent again like he was in the ALDS tomorrow in Game 2.

In the NLCS:





Former Rays aces James Hays and Kevin DiCostanzo pitched Games 1 and 2 for the Dodgers, with the latter much more successful, going 7.2 2 0 0 1 12 in a dominating outing.

[Art Deco]

More agony...



Once again the Rays faced an early deficit, once again they fought back to tie it up, and once again the lost it late as Houston scored 3 runs in the 9th to take a 6-3 win and a 2-0 lead in the ALCS, putting Tampa Bay in a deep hole. It was a bit of a shock to see Ruben Cerrillo tagged for a trio of runs in the first, but he settled in and the bats at least achieved parity. However Devon Williams was nowhere as near as effective as the night before, giving up a leadoff double then putting a couple more on including the fifth hit of the night from Josh Manuel, a 2-run double that iced the game for the Astros. So now it will be Bryce Barnett tasked with keeping the Rays into falling into a near-insurmountable 0-3 hole two days from now in Houston, although it would be nice if the offense could muster more than 3 runs a game.

[Art Deco]

Groundhog Year...



It's starting to look like 2039 is going to end the same way 2038 did for the Rays: being swept by Houston in the ALCS. The Astros made it seven straight ALCS wins over the Rays with today's 4-3 win and it's all over but the shouting. Tampa Bay did take its first lead(s) of the series and Bryce Barnett was mostly excellent, but he gave up a double to start the 7th and Leo Gutierrez was not as effective as he'd been up until now in the playoffs, giving up an RBI triple to former Ray Willie Gutierrez to tie it with Gutierrez scoring on a sac fly to give Houston a lead it wouldn't relinquish. The Rays got their obligatory make-it-close solo homer from Willis Ramirez in the 9th but once again they were a day late and a dollar short. Oh, and they also had Tony Fisher suffer a hyperextended ankle. He may still play tomorrow since the injury is "moderate" and it's do-or-die. Sergio Espinoza will try to avoid another humiliation tomorrow, but it's pretty much record-keeping at this point.

While there isn't a lot of suspense left in the ALCS we have a good series going in the Senior Circuit:





High drama in Philly as Kevin Asare walked it off in the bottom of the 9th with a 2-run homer, turning a potential 3-1 Dodgers advantage into a tied-up series.

[Art Deco]

Paper tigers...



At least they didn't prolong the agony. It looked like they might as they held a 4-1 lead in the 5th inning but that disappeared in a disastrous 6th inning and the Astros completed the sweep of the Rays in the ALCS for the second straight season, despite Tampa Bay being 15 games their better during the regular season. This time the offense scored some runs, and it looked like they might even pull off a comeback when Danny Arroyave, in likely his final game as a Ray after seven seasons wearing the colors, hit a bases-clearing double to get them back within 8-7. But Eric Lewis, who looked like he had turned things around, reverted back to his early season form by giving up a 2-run homer to put it out of reach, as if things were really at any point within reach. They award a series MVP and Houston's Josh Manuel earned it, but if there was an LVP it would go to big trade deadline acquisition Salvatore Garza. The veteran slugging 1B continued to hit after coming over as a rental from Detroit, but in this series he was a brutal 2 for 15 with 0 HR, 0 RBI and 5 men LOB today and 5-31 with 1 RBI over the entire postseason. He won't be missed and we have multiple replacements lined up. What to do in the offseason? Who knows? Two winters ago we got the best player in baseball (Begley) trying to put us over the top after losing the World Series, and while he'll be this year's AL MVP and did alright in the playoffs, we're no closer to winning it all than we were then. Stay tuned for the post-mortem.

Over in the NLCS:



More walk-off magic for the Phillies as for the second straight game they won it with a 2-run homer in the bottom of the 9th, and today's came off former Ray Stan LeVea.

[Art Deco]

Game 6:



This one just had to go seven.

Game 7:



And the Dodgers pull out the NLCS with consecutive 4-3 wins to overturn a 3-2 series deficit. They'll of course now face Houston in the Fall Classic.

[Art Deco]

It took the full seven games, but at least the Astros were finally vanquished. The home team won every game in the series, and yes that Dodger 3B to win Series MVP is named Bill Clinton.

[Art Deco]

Groundhog Day is officially in February but for these Rays it's observed in October as every year seems to end the same way: an ALCS loss to Houston, three of the last four years to be precise. And in the one year they got by the Astros they lost in the World Series so the championship drought has now reached six years. As always it's time to reload, not rebuild as there will some familiar faces departing but the 2040 Rays should be championship contenders.

The first bit of offseason news is that MVP-elect Jeremy Begley has opted out of the final year of his contract but we're working on an extension with him. Ditto for our ace Danny Morales, who is an outright free agent but should re-up for us. Leaving will be Danny Arroyave (we have potential replacements lined up at 3B), rentals Bryce Barnett, Devon Williams and Salvatore Garza, and relievers Eric Lewis (vesting option not met), Isaac Washington and Ken Battle.

The good news is that we have a $200M payroll to play with and if Begley and Morales sign the offers they were favoring, we should be left with about $40-45M to spend. The bullpen will need to be rebuilt with those four departures but otherwise we're looking good.

Position-by-position:

C: Billy Doughty was missed in the postseason but he'll be back and Art Bing remains a capable backup although I won't rule out an improvement.

1B: We're back to the Frank Duron/John Lopez platoon with Garza gone. Both are fine hitters who should contribute more.

2B: Justin Blackwell bounced back for a nice season and returns.

SS: We're expecting Begley to re-sign and if he does the position will be set for the foreseeable future. We do have some fine SS prospects in the minors and might have to deal one of them to keep them from stagnating.

3B: The big chance with longtime fixture Arroyave departing. Veteran Luis Cisneros, up with the club in the past, is capable of manning the position and 2038 first-round Isaac Gardener will get a long look after a 352/421/521 season at AA Montgomery. He's an average fielder.

IF: Isaiah Jackson has been a very good backup but he'll be pushed by 2034 first-round pick Jim Vroom, who is a defensive whiz and can play the OF as well and should hit 260-270 in the bigs with moderate power.

LF: Tony Fisher is back to mash.

CF: Danny Rodriguez returns. A little of his luster came off in a pedestrian second half but he turned it on in the playoffs and still should be a star.

RF: Danny Rivera had a nice bounce-back year and offers a fine power/speed/defense combo at the position.

DH: Yet another of our Dannys (at least Arroyave will be going), Perez hit 31 homers in his first full MLB season and will be back for more.

OF: Willis Ramirez would be starting on most teams as a top-tier leadoff hitter but is stuck behind the guys listed above.

Others: We have a glut of 1B (Ines Monts) and OF/DH-types (Danny Arevalo, Willie Maldonado, Danny Trevino - yes two more Dannys) who could step into an MLB lineup and rake but are blocked. It might be time to package a couple of them for a starting pitcher or relief ace.

SP: Barnett is gone but assuming Morales re-signs we return a potent rotation of Morales/Cerrillo/Espinoza/L.Gutierrez/Blake. Rule 5 pickup Sebastian Burns, vet Chris Ericson and part-time rotation member Moises Baca all could start but are likely ticketed for the pen.

RP: Speaking of the pen, closer Walt Kelly returns from an up-and-down year but all his setup guys (Washington, Lewis, Williams) are gone as well as lefty Battle, so that leaves lefty Jamie Arnold, prospects Omar Sears and Jerry Baylor, and returnee Chad Montgomery (who woefully underpitched his ratings), so we're going to need to beef things up here.

So the tl;dr to-do list for the offseason is:

1. Get some late-inning relievers.
2. Maybe add a starter that's better than Blake.
3. If an top-notch 3B falls into our lap, that's great but internal options are good.
4 A better backup catcher?

[Art Deco]

Notable retirements: Well Wander Franco hung up the spikes and as a result the Rays have retired his #5. Of course things were quite different in this alternate universe. Franco spent 17 years with the Rays (2021-37) before finishing his career with Boston and Oakland. He retired with 2,774 hits, 320 homers and 68 career WAR and is a likely Hall of Famer in five or so years.

Others: Ronald Acuna Jr (Atlanta retired #13), Kian Manmano, who hit 574 homers and the Nationals retired his #24, Royce Lewis, Spencer Torkelson, Corbin Carroll, former Ray Shane Panzini, former Ray John Swanda, Casey Mize.

Some news:



Yes 5/225 is a lot to give a player on the wrong side of 30 but 10-WAR players don't grow on trees.

Awards Season:

Gold Gloves: Begley and his 21.1 ZR at SS took the AL nod and Danny Rivera won again in RF for the fourth straight time.

Reliever of the Year: LA's Jonathan Hills (7-5, 2.45, 14 saves, 2.4 WAR) won in the AL while New York's Brad Jones (51 saves, 2.04 ERA, 90 K in 70 IP) took the NL nod.

Silver Sluggers: Begley took home his second but not last piece of hardware by winning the AL SS award.

Rookie of the Year: Baltimore 1B Tony Cardoso (.260-44-108) won in the AL while Milwaukee LF Alex Rivera (.324-13-54) prevailed in the NL.

Cy Young: In the AL it was this guy:



We traded one of our key hitters in Luis Berumen for him last winter and the deal more than worked out for us. Morales took a respectable third with 3 first-place votes, one of which was mine.

In the NL, the Cy belongs to Washington's Andy Williamson, who took 28 first-place votes after a 18-9, 2.69, 251-K (in 231 IP) and 6.3 WAR season.

MVP: As if there were any doubt:



The only surprise is that Begley wasn't unanimous since he was 3.2 WAR ahead of the field, which Williams topped. Williams did have an absurd offensive season: .341-44-148 and would be MVP-worthy in most seasons.

The NL winner was unanimous as El Paso's John Natson hit .324-60-127, good for a 1.108 OPS and 9.6 WAR.

More news:

He may have finished third in the Cy voting, but he's first in our hearts and back for 6 years (I've lost my mind, I've never given a pitcher that long a deal):



We have a $200M payroll so we're spending like a big market team, keeping our stars.

November 26: In arbitration news, Danny Rivera and Tony Fisher are each getting about $1M more than we offered after winning their cases. And Danny Arroyave turned down the qualifying offer as expected and will become a free agent, likely netting us a supplemental 1st-rounder. Also, I decided not to tender SP Mike Blake as $5.5M seemed too much for a pitcher that ran an ERA well into the 4s on an elite defensive team like ours. Sebastian Burns is my first choice to replace him although Moises Baca is a possibility. We also may trade for one. So in the end we have $32M to spend.

December 2: Our first trade of the winter, albeit a minor one:



Herndon was Rule 5-eligible and going nowhere with a glut of OFs in the upper levels of the system, and in return we get a useful utility player in Green, who can play all over the IF and OF, hit some with decent pop and can draw walks. He's likely ticketed for Durham.

December 5: Another trade, this time netting us our 5th starter:



Paquette was 15-11, 4.48 in 203 innings (2.2 WAR) for the Brewers, a workhorse who's rated 45/70/60 and should thrive with our excellent D behind him. He's an upgrade on the departed Mike Blake. Pepin was acquired in a deal with the Mets two years ago and well down our 1B depth chart although he does have 60 potential power.

December 7: The first of our free agents signs elsewhere as 1B Salvatore Garza, a playoff flop for us but still an elite slugger, went for 4/75 to Texas which seems on the low side.

December 8: To quote Michael Corleone, "Today I settle all family business". Three significant trades incoming:

#1:



Anyone who's followed along here has heard mention ad nauseum about how many overqualified 1B/DH types we have at the top of the system (MLB, AAA). Monts will be out of options come the spring so we had to keep him or deal him, so we dealt him. Of course we dealt him for another 1B but Olvera is a 2-year MLB vet with the potential to be better. He's earned 2.9 and 2.6 WAR the last two years and has hit 53 homers for Atlanta, but he has perhaps the best eye in baseball, drawing 101 and 115 walks in that time frame. Unfortunately his BA has been .235 and .245 but he's rated 55 contact with 60 potential so I'm convinced he's better than that. Also he has 60 power but with 65 potential so I'm banking on a breakout. Monts is kind of his opposite - he should hit close to .300 with 20-25 HR power, but will draw about 35-40 walks.

#2:



And since Olvera is a LH 1B, that meant there was no room for Duron, who hit decently last year in his rookie season and is rated 65/60 so he commanded a lot of interest in the trade market. So much so that LA was willing to deal us a player who was ranked as high as the #6 prospect overall before losing his rookie eligibility in Solorzano. And this is why he was ranked #6:



He backed that up by hitting 295/359/474 in 190 AB for the Angels, good for 1.4 WAR in that limited sample. Of course we already have a fine 2B in Justin Blackwell, but he's a free agent after the upcoming season. What likely happens is that Solorzano takes the backup MI job from Isaiah Jackson, who does have an option left (but doesn't deserve a demotion). But we have our 2B of the future, a potential star to team with our current star Begley or........we move Blackwell to fill our 3B hole (where's he rated 50 with 60 potential once he gets some PT there) and start Solorzano.

#3:



Or....we fill our 3B hole with one of the best young 3B in the game. Gonzalez hit 313/358/510 with 18 homers in 335 AB for KC and earned 2.5 WAR as a rookie and also was a top-100 prospect. He's rated 55/60 with 65 contact potential. The only negative is that he's an average defensive 3B at best and maybe a bit below. Not that Danny Arroyave was a Gold Glover and Gonzalez can potentially mash like him anyway. Arevalo is another fine player who was blocked at AAA for us and he's essentially a younger, cheaper version of Danny Rivera with the plus glove and a possibly better bat, at least from a BA standpoint. He was also out of options and didn't have a place in our OF so we almost had to deal him.

So in the end we deal three players from our 1B/OF glut for 3/4 of our starting infield for the next several years, all of whom could turn into stars. Not bad for a day's work.

December 14: Wasn't looking to make another trade just yet, but one found me:



Sensing I (used to) have a hole at 3B they offered me Rosado, whom I really have no interest in, and Rios, 20-year-old SP who's ranked the #25 overall prospect, who I have quite a bit of interest in. In return they wanted Carroll, our first-round pick in 2036 who now has 50/50/65 potential (i.e., back-end rotation guy), so I'll take the SP prospect upgrade and try and flip Rosado for something.

December 15: We flipped Rosado to the Mets for OF Kyle Bolden, who has 55/60 potential and is a current 45/55. He'll replenish a bit of OF depth we lost by dealing Arevalo and report to Durham.

December 18: Ken Battle, a lefty in our pen the last few years, signed a one-year deal with Washington for $8.5M, much more than I would have wanted to spend on him.

December 20: Added RPs Jerry Baylor and Michael Guerrero, C Javy Denton and OF Kyle Bolden to the 40-man roster. It's Rule 5 time again. We still have an opening on the 40-man so if an intriguing pitcher shows up in the draft we could take him - Sebastian Burns was a good pickup last year.

December 21: Nothing seemed interesting enough to take in the Rule 5 draft, and we did lose a player - 1B Danny Bellamy, whom I expected to depart and was taken by Cincinnati with the 3rd pick. Bellamy is rated 60/50 and could go to 55 with his power so he can help an MLB team.

December 28: Washington continues to sign our old relievers, inking Ruben Abeyta (who spent 2032-37 with us) to a 2/14 deal.

December 30: It was a day of our former pitchers finding new homes. First off, Devon Williams (whom we reacquired last year) left us for a second time as a free agent to Washington, signing for 2/22. Jon Coggin, who spent 2 1/2 years in our pen before being traded to El Paso at midseason last year, went to Atlanta on a 2/6 deal, and Mario Urizar, who spent a year and a half in our rotation in 2037-38 went to St. Louis for 2/16.

[Art Deco]

January 3: And there he goes - Danny Arroyave leaves the Rays to join Milwaukee on a 4/78 deal. We'll pocket the 1st-round supplemental draft pick.

January 4: The Hall of Fame voting is in and it's going to be a dull August gathering in Cooperstown as nobody got in:



Close but no cigar for deGrom, Harper, Yoshimoto and Bieber.

January 6: God help me, I re-signed him:



He was about as bad as bad can be in the first half but rebounded to have a good second half and was the most reasonably-priced closer candidate out there. Obviously his age is an issue but the price was right.

Meanwhile SP Bryce Barnett, whom we picked up at the deadline as a rental, joined El Paso for 2/34.

January 8: Washington continued to collect former Rays relievers with Mike Moore (in our pen from 2030-36) inking a 2/16 pact with the Nationals. He'll join Devon Williams, Jadon Smith, Ruben Abeyta and Kenny Battle in the ex-Rays bullpen club as well as Ryan Twine, a reliever who was in our farm system but didn't impress, only to sign with Washington and see his stuff go from 55 to 80 and put up an 8/61 BB/K ratio in 43 innings as a rookie.

January 11: Well this is a new one:



January 14: Veteran OF Jasson Dominguez signed a 2/17 deal with Toronto. The longtime star is 13th on the all-time career HR list with 607, and needs only six to pass Sammy Sosa and Jim Thome to move into 11th. He's 23 behind 10th-place Ken Griffey Jr.

January 21: It's almost comical at this point - the Nats have signed another former Rays reliever with Jake Bridgewater headed to Washington on a 1-year, $3.1M deal after spending 2036-38 in Tampa Bay.

January 26: Okay this has got to be a joke:



Washington of course was with us last season, now giving his namesake team seven - count 'em, seven - former Rays relievers.

January 31: We signed Tristan Ladd, a 16-year-old international amateur free agent out of Australia. He's a 1B with potential 75 contact and power but the Ladd has quite a journey ahead of him before we're talking about him in Tampa Bay.

February was a dull, quiet month, so we head into the exhibition season which hopefully will be injury-free.

[Art Deco]

A fairly uneventful March for the Rays as they only saw a couple of minor injuries with the most significant being a sore elbow which will bother LF Tony Fisher for a couple of weeks but it's "minimal" and won't keep him out of the lineup.

There were a couple of interesting free agent signings at the beginning of the month as 40-year-old vet Vlad Guerrero Jr. signed a 1-year, $5.5M deal with Kansas City after hitting .285-15-69 last year, and Mike Blake, who was in our rotation last season before being non-tendered, finally found a home in Cincinnati on a 1-year, $4.2M deal.

Otherwise the roster pretty much has panned out as projected with Isaiah Jackson, our regular backup infielder last season, the victim of the deals we made in the offseason and going to Durham as he had an option left. The full squad:

C-Doughty, Bing
1B-Olvera
2B-Blackwell
SS-Begley
3B-V.Gonzalez
IF-J.Lopez, Solorzano
LF-Fisher
CF-D.Rodriguez
RF-D.Rivera
OF-W.Ramirez
DH-D.Perez

SP-D.Morales, Cerrillo, Espinoza, L.Gutierrez, Paquette
LR-Ericson
MR-Burns, Baca, Baylor, Mauricio, Montgomery, Arnold
SU-E.Lewis
CL-W.Kelly

The team photo:



Luis Cisneros, Rodrigo Trejo and Dan Toliver all cleared waivers and were outrighted off the 40-man roster as they were out of options so they'll return to Durham which will be loaded as usual.

What does OOTP think of the team for 2040?



Division winners as usual, they think, but far from dominant. Interestingly last year's unanimous MVP and runaway WAR leader Begley is not listed among the top 10 AL batters. Here's hoping that's not the start of a downward trend considering what we re-signed him for.

The season will start north of the border with a pair of games in Toronto.