Orcin's Story

[Orcin]

June 23, 2008
Louisville Colonels Roster Strategy Session

The meeting was called to order at noon. Jennifer organized a nice catered lunch. In attendance were scout Carlos Villa, manager Chad Byrne, bench coach Stephen Burgess, and pitching coach Barry Melton. Team President Gordon Cooper also attended at my invitation.

The first decision was nearly unanimous. Villa and most of the coaches agreed with Byrne that Alexander should be replaced in the rotation by Aaron Wilkerson. Melton dissented, predicting that Alexander would have a big second half. He advises that we keep starting him and definitely not trade him. Melton said, “What makes you think the first 150 starts of Alexander’s career don’t accurately reflect his ability?” Good point.

Villa felt that it would be a safe bet to exercise the option on Alexander, given the low salary amount and the value of starting pitchers in general. His outlook on Alexander is “suitable number 4 or 5 guy”. He rates him in the middle third of 180 CBA starters. He doesn’t see Alexander getting better at age 29. A reasonable plan would be to keep him through next year and then allow him to become a free agent if he has a poor season.

Another valid approach, in Villa’s opinion, would be to trade Alexander now while he still has value. Perhaps we could include him in a package with a position player or two for a better pitcher. I said, “Let’s discuss which major league (40-man roster) players are, or are not, available for trade. Chad, what’s your ideal lineup from the current roster?”

Byrne wants to put Mooney in the starting lineup at third base, moving Simon to second base (his best position). He wants John as a left-handed utility infielder and pinch-hitter. Rodriguez and Bland are obvious. Guy and Brown will continue to share first base. The outfield is Morgan, Hartman, and Sanchez. Sweeney is the fourth outfielder for now.

Pedro Dominguez is injured so he doesn’t factor into our thinking today. Maybe he is a trade candidate when he is healthy, but five weeks from now is too close to the trade deadline and also too long to wait for pitching help. In addition, the Dominguez injury makes it difficult to trade Hartman unless we bring up Valdez as the CF starter.

The lineup vs. left-handers includes Sweeney in center field in place of Hartman, and Byrne prefers Martinez at first base vs. lefties. What about Chris Brown? Byrne and Burgess both shrugged and smiled. Byrne finally said, “This is a really nice lunch that Jennifer organized. I can see why you like to keep her happy.” Ok, so what if we traded Guy? Burgess choked on his sandwich and we almost had to perform the Heimlich.

Byrne said what everyone in the room already knew, “Brown’s a good player, but Guy is five years younger and has more upside. I am happy to have Brown as a power bat off the bench, and I can play him against left-handers to keep him sharp. But Guy is the future.” There is no way to get a top pitcher for Brown plus Alexander, so we moved on.

How about trading Dennis Morgan? We have Sweeney and he looks ready to take over. Villa said, “Morgan is 28 years old. The chance of him having a 60 HR/150 RBI season in the future is very high.” Byrne said, “If you want to see the clubhouse implode due to lack of leadership, trade Morgan and/or Simon. Otherwise, forget that idea.”

So, there is no one we can trade? Burgess said, “What about the .235 hitter behind the plate?” Gordon Cooper spoke for the first time. “Trading our most popular player would hurt us at the box office.” Melton added, “Bland makes the pitching staff better with his catching ability. I would worry about trading him unless we had an equivalent defensive catcher to replace him.” Prospect Kevin Thomas is two years away from the majors.

There followed a discussion of trading Alexander for Atlanta’s catcher, Juan Alejandrez; thereby enabling Bland to be traded for a pitcher. Alejandrez is an even better defensive catcher than Bland, and a typically good hitter that is just in a funk this year (like Bland). Villa pointed out that Alejandrez is a streak hitter that may get hot in the second half. His contract is expiring, but Alejandrez is not considered a greedy player and has a burning desire to be on a winner. Alejandrez is a very popular player nationally and acquiring him might help offset the fan interest impact of losing Bland.

I listened intently but finally reminded everyone that Bland was my only “untouchable” player for a reason. He is among the top three catchers in the CBA, he is another key leader, and he knows our pitching staff. He is our most popular player and we need to keep our loyal fans happy. He might be having an off-year but he is only 28 years old. “We are not trading Duncan Bland.” Byrne agreed that he was more comfortable with Bland behind the plate in the post-season than a new guy still learning our pitchers.

The discussion ended there because we had run out of players to debate. My takeaway from the discussion was that Hartman was our most expendable player with value, but I didn’t want to continue the discussion because I would be pressed about Valdez. I want him to stay at AAA this year for a lot of reasons, including his own development.

As Byrne and Burgess prepared to leave, I asked them to stay behind a second. I said quietly, “Look, I appreciate that you are willing to continue to play Brown.” Byrne replied, “Hey, the guy is hitting .307 with a slugging percentage close to .500 so he is pulling his weight. But now that we are alone, what about John and Mooney?” I shrugged and said, “Do whatever you want.” Byrne said, “Good. Mooney will be in the lineup tonight.”

After they left, I sat down at my desk and opened my laptop to view a spreadsheet that Villa had prepared with stats and ratings for those 180 CBA starting pitchers. I began to highlight affordable right-handed starting pitchers under age 30. A pitcher that jumped out at me was a familiar name, Marshall Moyer of Orlando. The Sharks now have two starting outfielders on the disabled list, so maybe they are ready to deal. However, the words of Barry Melton were haunting me. The voice in my head says, “Stand pat.” Well, it doesn’t hurt to call them, right?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

Sal came as soon as he was called. By the way, Mr. Orcin, Sal has not yet received a check for being part of the "management team." Sal knows you will take care of this--with interest.

You scratch my back, I'll scratch yours. Tickets, haircuts, autographs, voodoo dolls... it's a complex arrangement.

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

Does Tom John have any value? We may not want to move John if the rest of the fellows will be disgruntled, but he's one name Sal would put forth.

I think I covered most of your points above, but John was not prominently mentioned. His value has declined a lot in the past year. He is a .290 hitter, but he is a slap hitter with very little power and his walks are declining. He is good defensively, but not spectacular. In short, he is a dime a dozen and has no trade value. I remember all of his clutch hits and other contributions but the other GMs are cold and clinical. They just look at how much better he is than their own infielders, and they don't find enough difference to want him.

Byrne is right; he is now best suited to be a utility infielder. I traded for Mooney to eventually replace Simon, but now it looks like Mooney will replace John.

[dawg_gone]

Originally Posted by Orcin

The meeting was called to order at noon. Jennifer organized a nice catered lunch. In attendance were scout Carlos Villa, manager Chad Byrne, bench coach Stephen Burgess, and pitching coach Barry Melton. Team President Gordon Cooper also attended at my invitation.

Brilliant post. Does one renew Louisville Fan Club membership dues at Sal's Barbershop? (Does he take credit cards?)

[Orcin]

June 30, 2008

Subject: Week 12 Notes

Record: 44-31, .587, 1 GB (17-9 in June)
Position: 3rd place (behind St. Louis and Milwaukee)
Runs Scored: 371 – 3rd in Federal
Runs Allowed: 318 – 6th in Federal
Defense: .703 – 3rd in Federal
Power Ranking: 107.6 (5th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 100/100

• Last week (4-2): 2-1 vs. Dallas, 2-1 at St. Louis
• 06/23: LOU 9, DAL 4 – Morgan 2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
• 06/24: LOU 6, DAL 5 – Westaway 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K, W (7-4, 2.89 ERA)
• Garza almost blew a 5-run lead in the 9th, Brooks had to come in and save it.
• Cristo Rodriguez was 3-3 with a stolen base to raise his average to .302.
• 06/25: DAL 6, LOU 2 – Yamanaka (DAL) 3-4, HR, 3 RS
• 06/27: STL 3, LOU 1 – Collins (STL) 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 5 K, W (6-5, 4.14 ERA)
• Wilkerson’s line was 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K, L (4-3, 5.65 ERA) – not bad
• 06/28: LOU 5, STL 3 – Guy 3-run HR with 2-out in 9th for GWRBI
• STL SS Jason Searles committed two errors in the 9th to set up Guy’s heroics
• 06/29: LOU 4, STL 1 – Trauttmann 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K, W (7-4, 4.10 ERA)
• We can close the books on June because we have no game today (June 30).
• Robert Westaway was our Pitcher of the Month for June: 3-2, 1.96 ERA
• Dennis Morgan was our Player of the Month: .325/.449/.688, 8 HR, 17 RBI
• Milwaukee has won 9 straight and set their focus to “Win Now”.
• Milwaukee signed free agent LF Jeffrey Jackson to a 1-year contract for $1.4M.
• Should we start calling our group of 5 teams the Mid-BEST Division? They all still have winning records with Chicago in last place at 40-35.
• This week: 3 at Pittsburgh, 3 at Denver

Orlando is still unwilling to deal Moyer unless the deal includes Sanchez, Hartman, Sweeney, or Valdez. I would rather take my chances with Alexander and Wilkerson.

Chris Brown will reportedly miss a few games after injuring his back helping a neighbor to chop firewood earlier in the week. Brown stated he saw his neighbor was chopping wood and offered to help. He is now complaining of back soreness and the trainer has recommended that he sit out the next few games. Brown is listed as day to day while his back heals. Manager Chad Byrne has told Brown to avoid yard work until he is fit to play again. "His neighbor can rent a wood chipper and I'll pay for it", Byrne quipped. Brown was granted permission for a massage therapist to accompany him on the current road trip. Hopefully, the treatments will have him back in action quickly.

[Orcin]

July 7, 2008

Subject: Week 13 Notes

Record: 48-33, .593, 0.5 GB
Position: 3rd place (behind Milwaukee and St. Louis)
Runs Scored: 390 – 4th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 329 – 4th in Federal
Defense: .708 – 3rd in Federal
Power Ranking: 110.7 (2nd in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 100/100

• Last week (4-2): 2-1 at Pittsburgh, 2-1 at Denver
• San Diego SP Mike Rhodes is out for the season with a stretched elbow ligament.
• 07/01: LOU 10, PIT 2 – Morgan 4-4, 3 HR, 6 RBI
• 07/02: PIT 1, LOU 0 – Luna lost to a two-hit shutout by Juan Hernandez (5-3, 3.84)
• Cleveland traded reliever George King to St. Louis for 2 minor leaguers.
• Wilkerson woke up with flu-like symptoms so Alexander will get another start.
• 07/03: LOU 3, PIT 1 – Alexander 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K (maybe he just needs to get all of his pitching assignments on short notice!)
• 07/04: DEN 3, LOU 0 – Vazquez (DEN) 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 K, W (4-11, 4.98)
• Washington (37-42, 8 GB) set their focus to “Rebuilding” today and went to work.
• Washington traded SP Alfredo Acosta to Dallas for 4 prospects.
• Washington traded 2B Mariano Gonzalez (ex-LOU) to Charlotte for 4 prospects.
• Washington traded RF Lorenzo Olivares (ex-LOU) to Milwaukee for 2 prospects.
• 07/05: LOU 3, DEN 2 – Trauttmann 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 6 K, W (8-4, 3.87)
• 07/06: LOU 3, DEN 2 (11) – Westaway 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K, ND
• Brooks blew the save (his first BS). John got the GWRBI on a single in the 11th.
• Lexington CF Rafael Valdez was AAA Player of the Week, batting .444 (8-18) with 4 HR and 12 RBI. For the year, he is hitting .314 with 10 HR and 41 RBI.
• Chicago acquired SP Justin Bell (4-5, 4.90) from Houston for 35 y/o C Nick Boyd and a good prospect.
• Phoenix traded their closer Jaime Davila to Atlanta for two prospects.
• This week: 4 vs. Los Angeles, 3 at Salt Lake City, leading up to the All-Star break

[Orcin]

It was one year ago today that I started this dynasty thread. Now, 75 pages and over 50,000 views later, it has taken on a life of its own. It is a tribute to this great game that I am still obsessed with this league and play it on an almost daily basis. Thank you for spending some of your free time to share it with me.

In honor of the anniversary, today's post will be a little special.

[Orcin]

July 7, 2008

I get calls all the time from bloggers and reporters trying to confirm a story or get ahead of their competition on a rumor. Thus, it was no surprise when I saw the call from Scott Barnes of cbatraderumors.com come in last Friday morning. I greeted Scott cheerfully because he is one of the good guys that play fair with the clubs. He sounded serious.

“Take me off the speaker phone, Orcin. Are you alone?”

“Yeah, Jennifer is out re-stocking the espresso machine. What’s up, Scott?”

He proceeded to inform me of a story that he is working on. Apparently, according to unnamed sources, the 24-year-old massage therapist that accompanied the team on our latest road trip was treating a lot more than Chris Brown’s back – if you know what I mean. And it gets worse. Barnes has pictures that were taken in the hotel bar and still frames from the hotel’s security camera. They show Brown and his therapist getting a little too cozy for a client-patient relationship and certainly corroborate the story.

“Oh crap. How long can you sit on this, Scott? I need time to do damage control. There are people that deserve to hear this before they see in the press. I think you know who.”

“I can probably keep it quiet for a week or two because I am the only one with the goods so far. But I need you to make it worth my while, because my boss is on me to run this.”

“What will it take?” Scott drove a hard bargain – eight box seats to every post-season home game and an exclusive story on all trades that we make before the deadline. I agreed to his terms IF he would send the evidence to my home email account so I could have it checked out.

It took a couple of days and the services of a PI that the team employs, but we were able to confirm that the rumor was true. Brown had invented the entire wood chopping story to cover up having his “therapist” join him on the road trip. She is a real massage therapist all right, but Brown was enjoying services of a different nature.

Gordon Cooper met the team plane when it arrived from Denver Sunday night, and there was a brief but intense private meeting with Brown. Gordon said that he advised Brown to tell Jennifer tonight or he would do it himself tomorrow morning. Apparently, she was duly informed because she looked a little worse for wear when she arrived at the office this morning. I asked her in to my office for coffee, so we could talk in private.

Paula put together these next few mid-season summary charts so Jennifer could focus on other issues. I think Paula did a good job, as you will see. She is a member of SABR and a voracious reader of statistical analysis articles. She volunteers here just so she can be around the business. She might make a great GM someday.

To be continued…

[beachbomer]

The funny thing is that as soon as she went on that road trip, I new this was where the story should go. Gives you a reason to trade Brown...

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by beachbomer

The funny thing is that as soon as she went on that road trip, I new this was where the story should go. Gives you a reason to trade Brown...

Now wait... I never said the massage therapist was a "she".

[Orcin]

CBA STANDINGS (July 7, 2008 – 81 games)




The Mid-Best Division is more competitive than ever. This is really anybody’s race at the midpoint.
The Western Division is taking their lumps this year. I hope the winner has a winning record.
San Diego is cruising so far, with the Federal #2 offense and their traditional strong pitching.




Providence is having a great year with the bat, but their pitching and defense is suspect.
The Eastern Division seems to be the Patriot’s version of the Federal Western.
Charlotte seems to have the best overall team, but they will have to hold off some strong challengers.

[Orcin]

LEAGUE LEADERS (July 7, 2008 – 81 games)




Dennis Morgan makes an appearance on the leader board! He has been red hot lately.
Patrick Timm just keeps on ticking. He is becoming the Jorge Figueroa of the offense.

[Orcin]

LOUISVILLE COLONELS (July 7, 2008 – 81 games)




The lineup is producing runs at a decent rate, but Orcin is concerned about the balance. There is a shortage of power due to Hartman in center field instead of Dominguez. The solution to the problem is CF prospect Rafael Valdez; however, Orcin wants Valdez to finish the year at AAA. So, Dominguez will get his chance to unseat Hartman in the second half. Simon continues to slide toward the Mendoza line, which is very troubling.

Orcin believes the pitching will be fine if he can get a good second half from Alexander. He is keeping his fingers crossed, but he is also working the phone. There will be one last call to Orlando toward the end of the month, but he will not trade Valdez. Hartman is another matter, but let’s see how Alexander does in his next few starts.





I include everyone on the 40-man roster in this list, even if they have not seen any time with the big club. I sorted the charts high-to-low based on VORP. It is easy to see who the contributors and slackers are. The pitching really is self-explanatory with the two poor starters showing up at the bottom. The rest of the staff looks great.

The offensive leaders are the 3-4-5 hitters, which makes sense. The surprise is Cristo Rodriguez at #4. Add in his defense and you have a high WAR. Have fun picking a center fielder from among Dominguez, Hartman, and Sweeney. It is pretty easy to see that Mooney needs to be in the lineup somewhere. That somewhere is third base for now, but he can play any of the infield spots.

Down near the bottom of players with at bats is the second base duo of Simon and John. You can choose between a good batting average and nothing else (John), or a poor batting average with everything else (Simon). If you combine these two players, you have an all-star. You can’t, so instead you have a dilemma. Simon is too expensive to be a platoon player so this issue will be coming to a head if his batting average does not improve over the second half of the season.

Paula Dunlap for Otto Orcin

[Jabez54]

Hmmm ...

Was this the same massage therapist, as with John Travolta ??

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Jabez54

Hmmm ...

Was this the same massage therapist, as with John Travolta ??

No, I better nip this in the bud. She really IS female.

[beachbomer]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Now wait... I never said the massage therapist was a "she".

............ lol

[Orcin]

Since I nearly derailed my own thread anyway...

Originally Posted by beachbomer

Gives you a reason to trade Brown...

... I'll respond out of character to this and admit that you nailed it.

There are three reasons for this move actually:
1. Achieve a better allocation of my salary budget (no reason to pay big bucks to Guy's backup).
2. I don't like to carry a 1B backup on the 25-man roster.
3. I wanted to make the story more interesting.

And now, on with our story. Please just pretend this post doesn't exist.

[Orcin]

The Events of July 7, 2008 (continued)

The conversation with Jennifer Clark Brown went pretty well. She had been up most of the night with her mother, and she had already worked out much of her anger.

Her main concern was her job. Could she keep it in light of this scandal?

“Of course you can!”

The subsequent worry was how she would be able to perform her duties with Chris Brown around the office. He would no longer be living with her, and she had already made an appointment with a divorce lawyer. But he would be in and out of the office, and it would just be too uncomfortable and embarrassing.

“Besides”, she said, “I just don’t want to see his face again… ever.”

I assured her that this would not be a problem, and I felt better about the solution having heard her position on a possible reconciliation. I gave her the news straight.

“Gordon Cooper told me this morning that I must trade Chris Brown before the story hits the media. He does not want the bad publicity and he wants to send a message to the team that behavior of this nature is not tolerated by the Cooper family. He doesn’t care what the deal is. I anticipated his reaction and had already been working the phones over the weekend. The trade is complete and Chris will be out of here this afternoon. Paula has the press release prepared, and it will go out later today.

“Gordon also told me to be sure that you had anything that you needed in order to deal with the situation. You have the full support of the Louisville Colonels organization and access to any resources that we can provide. We are very sorry that this happened.”

Jennifer finished her coffee and left to take a couple of weeks off. She is planning to drive her mother to visit relatives in Indiana and thus avoid the press. Jennifer Clark promised to be back at work after the All-Star break. Chris Brown will not be back.

[Sal, The Barber]

Sal has got to figure out how to get not just one but two assistants like Mr. Orcin has! Sal thinks that if you would let him in to those behind the scenes meetings instead of leaving him on the wrong side of the door, this information would appear to him. In the meantime, Sal remains baffled. Clearly, Sal and Mr. Orcin have a different view of the meaning of the phrase "management team."

Now, you let Jennifer know that if she needs anything (a shoulder to cry on perhaps?), Sal is at her service.

Sal wil not, however, drive that Chris Brown to the airport. No. No way. Sal is not going to do it.

[Orcin]

2008 Mid-Season Recap: Louisville Colonels
(Courtesy of cbatraderumors.com)

The Louisville Colonels (48-33) have a habit of starting slow and building momentum toward the all-star break. They always seem to be able to jump to warp drive around mid-August and leave the rest of the division in another galaxy. The leap to hyperspace is usually triggered by some mid-July deal from GM Otto Orcin’s magic top hat. We are all waiting to see what position the rabbit plays this year. Our bet is a starting pitcher.

Louisville’s pitching staff is led by Antonio Luna (10-3) and Robert Westaway (8-4). The late innings are dominated by the Colonels new bullpen tandem of Bruce Brooks and Jorge Merced. The rest of the staff has been uncharacteristically inconsistent, headlined by the crash landing of formerly reliable third starter Ray Alexander (3-8, 7.45 ERA). If manager Chad Byrne can count on the young starters (Ordonez and Trauttmann) at the back of the rotation, the Colonels could have enough pitching to make the post-season again. If not, Orcin will need to find a dependable third starter outside the organization, and those don’t grow on trees. The offense will need to be robbed to pay Paul. The season will likely turn on the success or failure of this move, or perhaps go down the drain if Orcin chooses not to make a move and the hunch is wrong. Stay tuned.

Speaking of offense, the Colonels have a good one led by slugging LF Dennis Morgan (.274/.355/.577, 24 HR, 62 RBI). Morgan’s protection in the lineup has been provided by newcomer Mike Guy (.294/.383/.574, 14 HR, 42 RBI). Eduardo Sanchez bats ahead of them and will likely score 100 runs and steal 50 bases. Catcher Duncan Bland was not hitting earlier in the year, but has shown signs of coming around lately. Pierre-Louis Simon has still not returned to his form of a few years ago and it may finally be time to admit that he is getting older. Center field has been a revolving door so far, and the Colonels are biding time waiting for super-prospect Rafael Valdez to burst onto the scene. It seems almost criminal to give this team another awesome center fielder but that may be the case next year. The Colonels seem set on destroying AAA with this new weapon before unleashing it on the unsuspecting Federal League next season.

Louisville has won the World Series in three of the last four seasons. Anybody want to bet against them this year? I didn’t think so; neither do we. See you in Louisville in late October.

[Orcin]

July 7, 2008 (cbatraderumors.com)
EXCLUSIVE BREAKING NEWS

Subject: Colonels Trade Brown for Haley

Sources inside the Louisville Colonels front office have informed us that a trade has been completed with the Nashville Tigers. The deal sends 31-year-old 1B Chris Brown and 26-year-old minor league reliever Rob Bryant to the Tigers, while the Colonels will receive 33-year-old 1B Josh Haley and $1,250,000 in cash.

Tigers’ GM Thomas Cunningham said the trade was made "in the best interest of our organization's future." Haley’s contract will expire after this season, while the younger Brown is signed for three more years at less than half of Haley’s $18 million salary.

Colonels’ GM Otto Orcin has made no public comment on the deal so far today. On the surface, the deal does not seem to improve the Louisville roster because current first baseman Mike Guy is one of their best players. However, my sources indicate that the Colonels may not be finished in the trade market and this could be an interim deal.

Looking at his present stats, Brown has compiled a .297 batting average in 51 games with a .370 on-base percentage, while hitting 6 home runs and driving in 19 runs. Brown is among the top 3 on the Louisville Colonels career lists in most offensive categories. He has 250 career home runs with a .289 lifetime batting average.

Haley is having one of his best seasons in recent years. He is hitting .324 this year with 24 home runs, 63 RBIs and 51 runs scored. He has 85 hits in 262 at-bats, 13 walks and a .356 on-base percentage. Haley has 443 career home runs (#15 all-time) with a .281 lifetime batting average. Haley hit over 60 HR each season from 2000-2002.

Louisville fan reaction to the trade was very positive due to the high profile of Haley.