Orcin's Story

[Orcin]

June 9, 2008

Subject: Week 9 Notes

Record: 31-25, .554, 2.5 GB
Position: 4th place (behind Indianapolis, St. Louis, and Milwaukee)
Runs Scored: 265 – 4th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 254 – 10th in Federal
Defense: .692 – 9th in Federal
Power Ranking: 94.6 (11th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Very Happy; Fan Interest: 100/100


• Last week (3-3): 3-0 vs. Seattle, 0-3 at Indianapolis
• Ray Alexander was recalled from AAA and will start the third game in Seattle. Ricardo Quinones was sent back to Lexington.
• Tracy Sweeney was also recalled from AAA, and Larry Marshall was sent down. We need Sweeney’s bat on the bench.
• 06/02: LOU 1, SEA 0 – Westaway 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K, W (5-2, 3.04 ERA)
• Pierre-Louis Simon had to leave the game with a bruised knee. He is DTD and will be held out tomorrow as a precaution.
• Alexander Mooney started a rehab assignment at Lexington.
• 06/03: LOU 5, SEA 2 – Luna 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 5 K, W (7-1, 2.91 ERA)
• San Francisco SP Stephano Donaldson (5-5, 3.94) threw a no-hitter with 10 Ks to beat Indianapolis 2-0.
• Denver 3B Lanny Thackwray (.335/.387/.462) was 5-5 against Chicago.
• Houston 1B Ramon Lopez (.338/.412/.579) was hit by a pitch and suffered a fractured ulna (forearm). He will be out 5 weeks.
• 06/04: LOU 10, SEA 9 – Martinez 2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI; Simon 2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
• Alexander only lasted 4 innings and gave up 5 runs on 6 hits before he was lifted for a pinch-hitter. Bleh.
• 06/06: IND 5, LOU 2 – Stephens (IND) 8 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 4 K, W (5-2, 2.61)
• 06/07: IND 6, LOU 5 – Brown (IND) 3-3, DBL for GWRBI in 9th; Garza BS(5)
• Garza’s stats: 3.21 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, SV 17/22 (#2 in the league in saves but a 77% conversion rate is not good enough)
• Effective immediately, bullpen roles are re-assigned as follows: closer Brooks, setup Merced/Jones, middle Garza/Rodriguez, long Woods, mop-up Wilkerson
• 06/08: IND 5, LOU 2 – Brown (IND) 2-4, DBL, 2 RBI, GWRBI off Westaway in 1st
• Henry Cooper’s mood declined again after the sweep at the hands of Indianapolis
• This week: 3 at Chicago, 4 at Dallas


I have officially given up on Simon as the #2 hitter. His on-base percentage is just too low (.307) for the top of the lineup. His slugging percentage (.454) is good for the sixth spot, and his speed will come in handy there too. Dominguez (OBP .341) will bat second due to lack of better options. John gets on base enough, but his slugging percentage of .328 is too anemic to be considered for the top of the lineup.

[Westheim]

A tiny part of me is delighted that I am not the only one forced to use the word "anemic" in his reports.

Still, what is up with that division? Don't these teams ever lose against outsiders?

I have largely given up on Alexander by now, to be honest.

[Orcin]

June 15, 2008

Subject: First-Year Player Draft

The Los Angeles Vipers had the first overall pick in today’s draft, and they selected SP Emmanuel “Fury” Garcia, an 18-year-old high school player from the Dominican Republic. He was 6-0 with a 0.79 ERA against average competition. He is asking for an $8 million signing bonus and may go to college if he doesn’t like the Vipers offer.

Other consensus top picks in round 1:
• Chicago Cougars (#4 overall): SP Jimmy “Butterball” Rouse (age 18, throws L), went to Vanderbilt last year instead of signing with Baltimore and was 11-3 with a 1.92 ERA, Villa says he will challenge for many pitching awards and anchor a rotation.
• Cincinnati Bobcats (#5 overall): 3B Judd Lynn (age 17, bats R), dominated average HS competition hitting .621, strengths are contact and speed, good defender at third
• Baltimore Robins (#6 overall): SP Jerry Huff (age 21, throws R), 8-3 with 2.07 ERA at North Carolina, has the makings of a top-flight starter, needs to be more focused
• Phoenix Coyotes (#7 overall): SP Greg Nance (age 17, throws R), 8-0 with 0.98 ERA against average HS competition, looks like a future superstar but needs time

Louisville selections:

Round 1 (#29 overall): SP Marcos Maestas (age 18, throws R, 5-star), born in Mexico, played HS ball in L.A. and was 11-0 with 1.48 ERA vs. avg. competition, fastball 89-90 but good movement and control potential, slider and changeup already well developed, smart leader with good work ethic, rated easy to sign – wants slot

Round 2 (#66 overall): SP Harvey Sizemore (age 22, throws R, 5-star), picked 2007 round 1 by Atlanta but returned for senior year at Southern Mississippi instead, was 7-3 with 3.47 ERA vs. great competition, four well-developed pitches, good stamina, too smart for his own good, teammates think he is arrogant, rated easy to sign – wants slot

Round 3 (#98 overall): SP Cristobal Tapia (age 21, throws R, 3.5-star), University of Texas, projects to be a #3 starter, four pitches, excellent movement and stamina, good leadership skills and work ethic, durable, rated extremely hard to sign – wants slot

Round 4 (#129 overall): CF William Price (age 19, bats L, 5-star), Cabrillo College, great contact and power potential, eye is his weakness – doesn’t walk much, good defender, excellent intangibles, durable, rated very easy to sign – wants slot

Round 5 (#159 overall): MR Mark Gates (age 21, throws R, 4.5-star), starter at Rice but will convert to reliever, great fastball and curve, throws hard (96-98mph), good stamina, good intangibles, won’t take long to develop, rated easy to sign – wants slot

I was really happy to get both Maestas and Sizemore. I like Gates in round 5 too.

[Sal, The Barber]

About this draft ... Sal would like to know ... do you prefer the "Fury" or the "Butterball"? Sal would choose based on the nickname alone. Sal only takes the butterball on Thanksgiving.

[Sal, The Barber]

Sal would like to share the opening of this article from today's (Jan 18) Youngstown Vindicator:

"Retired federal Judge Nathaniel R. Jones, a Youngstown native well known for his civil-rights efforts, was honored by the state Thursday as part of activities commemorating the life of Martin Luther King Jr."

So if he doesn't know, let Nat Jones know his daddy is doing well.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

About this draft ... Sal would like to know ... do you prefer the "Fury" or the "Butterball"? Sal would choose based on the nickname alone. Sal only takes the butterball on Thanksgiving.

I like the butterball for eating and pitching. Left-handed starters are really hard to find.

[Orcin]

June 16, 2008

Subject: Week 10 Notes

Record: 37-26, .587, 0.5 GB
Position: 3rd place (behind St. Louis and Indianapolis)
Runs Scored: 320 – 2nd in Federal
Runs Allowed: 280 – 9th in Federal
Defense: .694 – 9th in Federal
Power Ranking: 106.7 (7th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 100/100

• Last week (6-1): 3-0 at Chicago, 3-1 at Dallas
• SS Alexander Mooney returned to the active roster.
• LF Tracy Sweeney was sent to AAA to make room for Mooney because Lucio Martinez (50 AB: .320/.404/.660, 4 HR) is playing too well to send down.
• 06/09: LOU 11, CHI 3 – Luna 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 10 K, W (8-1, 2.76 ERA)
• 06/10: LOU 9, CHI 4 – Morgan 4-5, HR, 2 RBI; Sanchez 3-4, DBL, 2 RS
• Alexander had a great game: 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K (yay!)
• Cleveland has put reliever George King (0-2, 6.08 ERA) on the trading block. King is reportedly unhappy about his role on the team. Did anyone see this coming?
• 06/11: LOU 4, CHI 3 (10) – John 3-5, TPL, scored winning run
• CF Pedro Dominguez was injured on a defensive play. Diagnosis is pending.
• Chicago has now lost seven straight games to fall below .500 at 29-30.
• Rebuilding Baltimore traded 26-year-old CL Daniel Webber (1-3, 4.41, 10 SV,) to Washington for a prospect. We traded Webber to the Robins in the Mike Guy deal.
• 06/12: LOU 8, DAL 6 – Rodriguez 3-4, 2 DBL, 4 RBI
• Pedro Dominguez was diagnosed with a severe (high) ankle sprain. He will be out for 6-7 weeks. Ron Hartman will take over in center field batting second.
• Tracy Sweeney got another ride down I-64 as he was recalled from AAA to be the fourth outfielder.
• 06/13: LOU 7, DAL 2 – Guy 2-4, HR, 3 RBI
• Charlotte signed 33-year-old LF Jon Schultz to a 4-year extension at $17M/year.
• 06/14: LOU 10, DAL 0 – shutout by Luna 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 8 K, W (9-1, 2.52)
• Sanchez was 4-6 with 3 RBI. Brown, Bland, John, and Sweeney all had 2 hits.
• 06/15: DAL 8, LOU 6 – Alexander 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 3 K, L (2-7, 7.69 ERA)
• Alexander is on again – off again. His erratic performance is still a big issue.
• This week: 3 at San Francisco, 3 vs. Sacramento


Orlando will still trade SP Marshall Moyer for Alexander and Hartman. Moyer (profiled on April 28) remains the best pitcher available. I hate to give up Hartman, especially with Dominguez out for six weeks. I offered Alexander plus (AAA LF) Arlen Craig but they weren’t interested.

[Sal, The Barber]

Originally Posted by Orcin

June 16, 2008

Subject: Week 10 Notes
Position: 3rd place (behind St. Louis and Indianapolis)

• Rebuilding Baltimore traded 26-year-old CL Daniel Webber (1-3, 4.41, 10 SV,) to Washington for a prospect. We traded Webber to the Robins in the Mike Guy deal.

Sal is obviously just catching up on his newspaper reading. What is this about Louieville in the 3rd place? Is Sal's paper from 2003?

Daniel Webster. That guy has a way with words. Is his nickname "Dictionary"?

[Westheim]

I used to work with a guy named Daniel Web(b)er for a few years, and some called him Webster. He was not exactly a closer type and we looked for an upgrade in that position, especially since he was fragile, mostly had a "me first" attitude and a questionable work ethic and was widely seen as clubhouse cancer.

I am playing this game WAY too much recently.

[Orcin]

June 20, 2008

Subject: Mid-Season Minor League Update

The following players from our farm system were selected for the All-Star team in their league.

Lexington (AAA), 42-23, 1st place:
• SP Luis Gonzales (age 28, throws R, 8-2, 3.06 ERA)
• SP Travis Sullivan (age 24, throws R, 6-1, 3.47 ERA)
• CL Mike Guthrie (age 27, throws R, 2-1, 14 SV, 1.55 ERA)
• 1B Jesus Ramos (age 23, bats L, .260/.386/.695, 20 HR, 48 RBI)
• LF Arlen Craig (age 24, bats L, .343/.401/.518, 10 HR, 37 RBI)
• RF Gerald Blair (age 25, bats L, .278/.411/.545, 12 HR, 41 RBI)

Dayton (AA), 35-30, 2nd place:
• none

Evansville (A), 35-30, 2nd place:
• SP Geoff Bly (age 18, throws R, 7-2, 2.54 ERA) – 2007 draft, round 8
• SP Ramon Guzman (age 23, throws L, 7-5, 3.21 ERA) – discovered by Candelaria
• LF Tom Frye (age 22, bats R, .252/.358/.405, 5 HR, 24 RBI) – 2007 draft, round 1

Yes, it has occurred to me to try Luis Gonzales as a major league starter in place of Alexander. Villa says that he would fail miserably, but sometimes scouts are wrong. I am still hoping that Alexander will pull out of it.

[Westheim]

Would you mind posting Alexander's career pitching stats? Maybe I can combine it with the fog in my crystall ball to precisely determine where to go with him.

There are two options for this: AAA ball or Siberia right away.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Westheim

Would you mind posting Alexander's career pitching stats?

Here you go.

[gehrig38]

Is what he's done in how many starts this year, enough to make you think the 153 starts prior to this season aren't who he is?
My bet is he has a monster 2nd half.

[Westheim]

He basically has posted identical numbers since his first full season in the big leagues. Compared to the numbers at the quarter post update his K, BB, HR numbers are about the same as before, give or take 20%. I still can not get my head around that .397 BABIP he had at that update, which inflates his HA and WHIP as well.

That he is able to toss eight shutout innings tells me he's not completely awful, though.

The only logical explanation: his team mates hate him and want him to tank it.

With the division as tight as it is this year, the Colonels should better not choose to sit it out for too long, though.

[Orcin]

June 23, 2008

Subject: Week 11 Notes

Record: 40-29, .580, 2 GB
Position: 2nd place (behind St. Louis)
Runs Scored: 344 – 2nd in Federal
Runs Allowed: 296 – 5th in Federal
Defense: .699 – 8th in Federal
Power Ranking: 104.3 (5th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 100/100

• Last week (3-3): 2-1 at San Francisco, 1-2 vs. Sacramento
• Reliever Jeffrey Woods was optioned to AAA and Ricardo Quinones was called up. Woods has been unreliable recently, and Quinones deserves a shot.
• 06/17: LOU 6, SF 3 – Sweeney 3-4, DBL, HR, 2 RBI; Mooney 3-4, DBL, 2 RBI
• Ordonez: 8 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 K, W (3-5, 3.78 ERA); Brooks SV(3)
• Atlanta SP Charles Combs (5-3, 4.46) is out for the year with a shoulder injury. The oft-injured Combs (age 33) signed with Atlanta for 4-years, $42M in the off-season.
• Free agent 2B Filipe Carrego was signed to a minor league contract and will report to Lexington. He provides veteran emergency infield insurance, along with Aponte.
• 06/18: LOU 2, SF 0 – Trauttmann 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K, W (5-4, 4.42 ERA)
• 06/19: SF 1, LOU 0 – Donaldson (SF) 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 4 K, W (8-5, 3.26)
• 06/20: LOU 10, SAC 2 – Luna 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 9 K, W (10-1, 2,52 ERA)
• Luna also hit a grand slam home run in the win over Sacramento.
• Milwaukee ace Al Blackburn (age 32, career 109-71, 3.58 ERA) signed a 4-year extension worth $64M. The final year is a team option.
• 06/21: SAC 9, LOU 6 – Alexander 3.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 K, L (2-8, 8.36 ERA) *sigh*
• Providence star C Andy Hamm (age 28, .270/.333/.480, 12 HR, 46 RBI) signed a 5-year extension worth $80M. This contract is an excellent “comp” for Bland.
• 06/22: SAC 1, LOU 0 – Gamble (SAC) 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 K, W (6-4, 3.28)
• All of our draft picks have signed and reported to either Evansville or Owensboro.
• This week: 3 vs. Dallas, 3 at St. Louis

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

• 06/21: SAC 9, LOU 6 – Alexander 3.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 K, L (2-8, 8.36 ERA) *sigh*

I feel your pain.

Still, as a whole, the team seems to be on a solid pace despite one or two ... well ... natural desasters.

[Orcin]

Mid-Season Focus Changes

Teams that may be buyers at the trade deadline:
• Houston Stars have set their team focus to “Win Now”.
• Providence Grays have set their team focus to “Win Now”.
• Boston Bombers have set their team focus to “Win Now”.
• Cincinnati Bobcats have set their team focus to “Win Now”.
• Atlanta Flames have set their team focus to “Win Now”.

Teams that could go either way:
• St. Louis Hawks have set their team focus from “Rebuilding” to “Neutral”.
• Sacramento Outlaws have set their team focus from “Rebuilding” to “Neutral”.
• Charleston Generals have set their team focus from “Rebuilding” to “Neutral”.
• Detroit Titans have set their team focus from “Rebuilding” to “Neutral”.
• Philadelphia Firebirds have set their team focus from “Rebuilding” to “Neutral”.

Teams that may be sellers at the trade deadline:
• Dallas Rattlers have set their team focus from “Win Now” to “Neutral”.

As you can see, it is a seller’s market. This is especially true when it comes to starting pitching. You will see evidence of this in the next post.

[dawg_gone]

Originally Posted by Westheim

He basically has posted identical numbers since his first full season in the big leagues. Compared to the numbers at the quarter post update his K, BB, HR numbers are about the same as before, give or take 20%. I still can not get my head around that .397 BABIP he had at that update, which inflates his HA and WHIP as well.

That he is able to toss eight shutout innings tells me he's not completely awful, though.

Originally Posted by gehrig38

Is what he's done in how many starts this year, enough to make you think the 153 starts prior to this season aren't who he is? My bet is he has a monster 2nd half.

This exactly. Alexander has given Louisville quality, consistency, and reliability for five years. He's just had a bad luck year which happens sometimes. In this case the defense just doesn't seem to be playing well behind him. Even if he doesn't have a monster second half, he will almost certainly rebound to his old self next year.

So the question becomes, which view has primacy, win-now or steady hand at the helm through the blips ... or does Mr. Orcin intuit that Alexander is suddenly washed up?

[Orcin]

Shop Player: SP Ray Alexander



Teams are willing to move expensive position players to get a starting pitcher, even one that is struggling as much as Ray Alexander. There are a couple of players on this list that interest me, but I don’t need another high-dollar position player – especially a first baseman or outfielder.

But can I use this to my advantage by making a 3-way trade? One of the buyers on the “focus change” list might need offense badly enough to take on a big contract and give up a starting pitcher to get it.

This gambit is extremely risky. Naturally, I cannot shop the player that I plan to acquire until I actually have acquired him. So I cannot know that I will be able to offload him at all, much less in return for a pitcher that I want. The best way to gauge interest would be to shop a proxy, but I don’t really want to annoy players like Dennis Morgan by shopping them around the league.

After much consideration, I decided to abandon this plan. It’s time for another strategy session with my management team. The topics are:
• Do we leave Alexander in the rotation?
• If no, do we trade him or plan to exercise his team option at $3.2M for next year?
• Which position players with value can we afford to offer in a trade and still win?

[Sal, The Barber]

Originally Posted by Orcin

After much consideration, I decided to abandon this plan. It’s time for another strategy session with my management team. The topics are:
• Do we leave Alexander in the rotation?
• If no, do we trade him or plan to exercise his team option at $3.2M for next year?
• Which position players with value can we afford to offer in a trade and still win?

Sal came as soon as he was called. By the way, Mr. Orcin, Sal has not yet received a check for being part of the "management team." Sal knows you will take care of this--with interest.

Now for the questions. Leave Alexander in? No. Trade him? No. What is the date? Sal can't be expected to keep track of trivial things like this, especially now that he is part of the "management team." By the way, Sal could have been here sooner if he had a driver--something to think about, Mr. Orcin.

Sal does know it is June. Try the kid in AAA. Then maybe trade a player for a backend SP. Does Tom John have any value? We may not want to move John if the rest of the fellows will be disgruntled, but he's one name Sal would put forth. We can always move one of those outfielders for a pitcher. And what about See-moan? Could we get a pitcher for him? The player to trade depends partly on who is ready to take his place. We could move the first baseman ahead of Mr. Guy!

Now, now. Sal feels he is only doing his job by offering options.