Orcin's Story

[Orcin]

July 28, 2001 (BNN)

Subject: Louisville, New York Confirm Swap

It is being reported in New York that the Monarchs and Louisville Colonels have agreed on a trade. According to anonymous sources, 21-year-old minor league catcher Duncan Bland, 21-year-old third baseman Mariano González and 35-year-old starting pitcher Dan Clayton will be dealt to the Colonels in return for 37-year-old starting pitcher Alfredo González.

To date this season González sports an 8-5 mark with a 3.82 ERA in 18 starting assignments. He has held the opposition to a .221 batting average and has 95 strikeouts in 113 innings.

In 5 starts this year Clayton has posted 2 wins while suffering 3 losses. He has pitched 35 innings, allowed 24 hits, struck out 35 and has a 4.11 ERA.

**********

Fan interest in Louisville decreased noticeably (87 to 84) as a result of the trade. The fans were not impressed with the trade of a solid starting pitcher for a marginal starter and two prospects that won’t contribute to the pennant drive. Meanwhile, fan interest in New York increased sharply (59 to 63).

[Orcin]

July 28, 2001 (BNN)

Subject: McGlone Sizzles – Smokes Seals for 5 Hits

No matter what San Francisco pitchers threw him today Hugh McGlone hit it. The 24-year-old Louisville center fielder racked up 5 hits in 5 at-bats today against them at Seals Stadium and spearheaded the Colonels to a 10-3 victory.

Hugh McGlone hit an RBI double in the 1st, singled in the 2nd, hit an RBI double in the 4th, doubled in the 6th and hit a solo-shot off Nathan Bascombe in the 8th. McGlone tied the team record for hits in a single game.

McGlone is batting at a .344 pace this season, picking up 124 hits in 360 at-bats with 14 home runs, 55 RBIs and 67 runs scored.

[Orcin]

July 30, 2001

Subject: Week 17 Notes

Record: 67-38 .638, - GB
Position: 1st place (14.5 game lead)
Runs Scored: 514 – 2nd (Tie) in Federal
Runs Allowed: 376 – 1st in Federal
Defense: .707 – 4th in Federal
Power Ranking: 117.9 (3rd in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 84/100


• Last week (3-3): 0-3 vs. Chicago, 3-0 at San Francisco
• The suspension of Julio Martinez left me with only one active catcher, so following the trade I played some roster games to compensate.
• Catcher Jorge Costa was called up from AAA to replace Gonzalez, leaving us with twelve pitchers and Clayton still designated for assignment.
• I will delay the activation of Clayton until the Martinez suspension is served.
• The other two players acquired from New York were assigned to (AAA) Lexington. Bland will take over as the starting catcher and Gonzalez will play second base.
• This week: 3 vs. Dallas (53-53), 3 at San Diego (66-40)

[Jabez54]

ORCINASTIC !!! ...

GREAT ... Great ... great deal ... Congrats!!! ... (time will tell on this )

[Orcin]

July 31, 2001 (BNN)

Subject: All-Star RF Signs Pact with Colonels

Louisville fans celebrated as word of a signing became reality. Terrence Banks won't be pulling up stakes anytime soon as he has signed a 5-year extension worth $25,000,000.

Since he is widely seen as an integral part of the club, Louisville officials had to keep Banks from jumping ship. This year Banks is batting .320 with 21 home runs and 85 RBIs.

**********

Always keep an extension offer for a popular player in your back pocket. Fan interest increased from 84 to 87 with this announcement, completely reversing all of the ill will generated by the Gonzalez trade.

The contract buys out Banks’ arbitration years and first year of free agency. I consider it a bargain because his arbitration estimate was almost $8M. If his performance holds up, I got five years for the price of three.

[Orcin]

August 6, 2001

Subject: Week 18 Notes

Record: 70-41 .631, - GB
Position: 1st place (14.5 game lead)
Runs Scored: 535 – 3rd in Federal
Runs Allowed: 402 – 1st in Federal
Defense: .708 – 4th in Federal
Power Ranking: 116.5 (3rd in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 87/100


• Last week (3-3): 1-2 vs. Dallas, 2-1 at San Diego (a potential playoff foe)
• We were 14-11 in July. The offense sputtered at times as a couple of key players missed time due to injuries (Hugh McGlone and Raul Martinez).
• Terrence Banks was again our Player of the Month for July, hitting .320 with 6 HR and 19 RBI. He is the MVP of our team, if not the whole league.
• Todd Fletcher was our best pitcher in July, going 4-1 with a 1.02 ERA. Ron Sims deserves mention with a 3-1 record and 2.88 ERA to go with his perfect game.
• Raul Martinez returned to the active roster late last week. Russell Bennett was sent back down to AAA and paired at shortstop with new AAA 2B Mariano Gonzalez.
• Jorge Costa was called up to serve as an extra catcher during the suspension of Julio Martinez. When the suspension ended, Costa refused to be demoted! That’s a lot of nerve coming from a .056 (1-18) hitter on a one-year contract.
• Catcher Jorge Costa was waived for the purpose of giving him his unconditional release, making room for SP Dan Clayton on the roster. Costa was claimed by the Nashville Tigers. Good riddance.
• The summer trading season was fairly active with 21 trades in the CBA (counting mine). Only 6 teams did not make any trades since June 1. The under-achieving Atlanta Flames were the most active, making five trades in the past two months.
• The Indianapolis Indians continued their personnel purge this week, firing the GM and the field manager. Deposed manager Miguel Costello would be a good manager in the lower minors if he would accept such a job. Former Indians hitting coach Ben Blair is also still available. Minor league seasons end in late September.
• A top-shelf reliever was placed on waivers and I considered claiming him until I checked his salary. He is making the same $3.5M per year that Mario Chavez wants. So I made a contract extension offer to Chavez instead.
• This week: 3 at Los Angeles (59-52), 3 at St. Louis (45-66) – these two teams will be pretty tough; L.A. is fighting for a wild card and St. Louis should be a .500 team per their Pythagorean record.

[Orcin]

August 13, 2001 (BNN)

Subject: Monarchs, Veteran Gonzalez Agree to Terms

Happy times in New York as the Monarchs and star starting pitcher Alfredo González put the finishing touches on a $17,500,000 contract extension that will keep the 37-year-old in town 2 years longer.

The signing is great news for New York because players of this caliber are hard to come by. In 21 starts this season González has chalked up a 9-6 record and a 3.83 ERA.

**********

Bill Carter was determined to prevent another bidding war for Gonzalez and found a way to mend fences with his star pitcher. This contract should allow him to retire in a Monarchs uniform.

Don’t you love a happy ending?

[Orcin]

August 13, 2001

Subject: Week 19 Notes

Record: 74-43 .632, - GB
Position: 1st place (14.5 game lead)
Runs Scored: 561 – 4th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 423 – 1st in Federal
Defense: .708 – 4th in Federal
Power Ranking: 116.8 (2nd in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 87/100


• Last week (4-2): 2-1 at Los Angeles, 2-1 at St. Louis
• Our schedule is very favorable down the stretch with 29 games left at home vs. 16 on the road, 3 of which will be played early this week.
• Reliever Mario Chavez agreed to a three-year contract extension worth $10.5M. The final year of the deal is a team option for $4M. This is the exact same contract that lefty setup man Ricardo Melendez received.
• *Bummer alert* … Infielder Mariano Gonzalez, one of the prospects acquired in the big trade with New York, was diagnosed with a torn posterior cruciate ligament and will be sidelined for 9-10 months. He will likely miss spring training next year and that could hinder his development.
• This week: 3 at Milwaukee (60-58), 3 vs. Phoenix (55-64)


Reliever Kelly Dean is ready to be activated from his rehab assignment this week, and six starting pitchers will not be required for the playoff rosters. Ed Gibson will need to be waived to make room for Dean and prevent burning an option on him. This is only a risk in the short term because AAA starter Jim Poole could be called up on September 1 as a long reliever for the stretch run. If Gibson clears waivers and accepts a temporary demotion to AAA, he could be added to the September roster or traded to a contender that needs a starter for the stretch run.

[Jabez54]

Sheesh ... That's as real as it can get ... what a bad break ...

[Orcin]

Yeah, that's baseball... as you say, my friend.

I will be traveling to see our minor league affiliates for the rest of the week. I will make a little circuit of one day each in Lexington, Dayton, Evansville, and finish up in Owensboro. For those of you that are not familiar with our geographical area, it is a loop that is easily traveled by car.

Since I will either be in a car, in meetings, or watching games, I won't have much time to post updates until the weekend. So I am going to leave you with a lot to look at it this morning. Take your time, and post your comments if you wish. Thanks for reading.

Otto Orcin

[Orcin]

2001 Standings – 120 Games:




Louisville has won 7 of 8 to squeak past Baltimore for the best record in the CBA. The magic number for the Colonels to clinch the division crown is 25. The four playoff teams in the Federal League seem to be all but decided. San Diego is in control of their division, while both Salt Lake City and Houston are on course to qualify for the playoffs as either a division winner or the wild card.

Cleveland and Charlotte have decent leads in the Patriot League, but neither of them is playing well right now so those races still bear watching. It will be a major upset if two playoff teams don’t come from the Atlantic Division, but which two? Boston is 24-9 since the All-Star break and New York refuses to go away.

Charlotte’s Jon Schultz is trying for the first Triple Crown in CBA history. He also threatens the single-season RBI mark of 171 set by Nolan Hamilton of the Boston Bombers way back in 1981. Houston’s Vincente Juárez is still flirting with the all-time record for batting average in a season, which is .375 set by Gilberto Garza of the Cleveland Rockers in 1996. (Garza is still active and now plays for Chicago.)

[Orcin]

Louisville Colonels active roster at 08/15/2001:




No wonder we have won 7 of 8 – look at that long “who’s hot” list. (By the way, red font on red background is not a great idea.)

Our offense is good enough to win with our pitching, but we don’t walk enough and we strike out too much. The mediocre stolen base total is not a reflection on a lack of team speed. Manager Byrne (the AI manages 2 of every 3 games) likes to play for the big inning, a good strategy considering the power we have in the middle of the order.

Dan Clayton has looked good in his two starts, and he might have been the steal of that trade if he comes through in the playoffs. He might slip ahead of Martinez and Sims in the post-season rotation if he continues to pitch well down the stretch. I like veterans.

Ricardo Martinez has a high ERA relative to his WHIP because he gives up a lot of home runs (27 so far in 23 starts). He could be a #1 starter on a lot of staffs if he could cut down on those homers, but he can’t – which is why St. Louis gave up on him.

We have the league’s best bullpen and it is strong from top to bottom. We can make any post-season game a six-inning affair.

Terrence Banks and Todd Fletcher are good candidates for post-season hardware. Be sure to check the sweet contracts that I have with these two players in the next post.

[Orcin]

Louisville Colonels Salary Chart as of August 15, 2001



I keep an eye on this chart throughout the season, but I haven’t shown it yet so I will take that opportunity now. There are some concerns here.

• The total payroll budget must be under $100 million in order to afford the other club expenses (assuming no budget increase is granted by the owner). The 2003 figure is very close, especially considering that replacements for five free agents are not accounted for in the $96 million figure.

• The arbitration estimate for shortstop Raul Martinez is alarming. He wants a four-year extension for $50 million and that doesn’t seem like a good alternative. I will probably go to arbitration with him and take my lumps since I have no better option.

• The arbitration estimates for Brown and McGlone are likely to be an issue one year sooner than the chart shows, because both will be close to super-2 eligibility. This makes the 2003 figure even more disturbing. An additional $13 million or more will bust the budget even with an increase.

• Reliever Kaz Mizuno will likely get a $3 million salary in arbitration, but again that is better than the extension offer from his agent. I am not inclined to sign him to a longer deal yet anyway. I have three good relievers under contract and a couple more under club control. He could be an attractive trade chip over the winter.

• Starter Ron Sims has just crossed over the threshold to be arbitration eligible, and this would be a great time to open contract negotiations on a long-term deal. The goal is to sign him for four-five years on an escalating salary scale, cumulating in a team option year just below his current arbitration estimate.

There is not much to do here (after the extension offer to Sims) before the end of the season. I won’t be considering offers to any of the potential free agents before then.

[Orcin]

I have a minute to post a brief update from my hotel room in Evansville... a lovely city by the way. I'll be taking some of my friends to Turoni's for pizza later. You gotta try it if you are ever here.


August 16, 2001 (BNN)

Subject: Veteran Reliever Re-Signs with Seals

Happy times in San Francisco as the Seals and star reliever Anthony Drew put the finishing touches on a $27,000,000 contract extension that will keep the 31-year-old in town 3 years longer.

The signing is great news for San Francisco because players of this caliber are hard to come by. This season Drew has earned 2 saves, tossed 58.2 innings, made 51 relief appearances, fanned 81 hitters and posted an ERA of 4.30. Teams are hitting .263 against him.

**********

I post this seemingly random news story for a reason. I want to point out what other teams are doing just in case you don’t think that my $3 million contracts for exceptional relievers are good investments. Drew has outstanding ratings from the scouts, including mine, and his career record is excellent. He is better on paper than anyone we have in the bullpen. However, his stats this year are a concern, and I wouldn’t invest that much money in him. I prefer 80% of him at 33% of the money.

[Sal, The Barber]

Mr. Orcin,

Business is quiet when you're out of town as it is, now you're advertising for restaurants in Evansville?

Bring the boys when you're back in town; my scissors are getting dull.

Sal

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

Mr. Orcin,

Business is quiet when you're out of town as it is, now you're advertising for restaurants in Evansville?

Bring the boys when you're back in town; my scissors are getting dull.

Sal

I do need a trim, Sal. I'll see you on Saturday. Keep the chair warm.

By the way, I really wish I could have gotten the Youngstown AA franchise instead of Dayton, but that was done when I was only three years old.

[Orcin]

Saturday, August 18, 2001

Thanks for the trim, Sal. It's always good to come in here when we are on a five-game winning streak. Plus the conversation is good. You guys always want to know what is coming up next on the GM's agenda.

The next looming deadline is August 31 when playoff rosters must be set barring injury. The backup infield spot is a question mark because Julian Mejia continues to struggle. Russell Bennett, now at AAA, is a better fielder and a switch-hitter. He can strike out just as well as Mejia. But Mejia is out of options so he will have to be waived if I bring up Bennett. I was waiting as long as possible in the hope that Mejia would snap out of his slump. It doesn’t look like he will, but he keeps going 2-4 each time that I give him one last chance. Then he follows with two straight 0-fers and the cycle repeats. I have to make that call soon.

[Orcin]

August 20, 2001

Subject: Week 20 Notes

Record: 79-44 .642, - GB
Position: 1st place (18.5 game lead)
Magic Number: 21
Runs Scored: 597 – 3rd in Federal
Runs Allowed: 441 – 1st in Federal
Defense: .710 – 3rd in Federal
Power Ranking: 122.6 (2nd in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 87/100


• Last week (5-1): 3-0 at Milwaukee, 2-1 vs. Phoenix
• Todd Fletcher won #19 with six shutout innings against Milwaukee. The Colonels backed him with four homers in the 7-0 win.
• Ron McLain (11-9, 3.48) followed Fletcher with eight shutout innings to earn a PotD and we finished a sweep of Milwaukee with a 4-0 win.
• Terrence Banks picked up RBI #100 with a three-run homer (#26) to help beat Phoenix 12-6. Silas Campbell (#27) and Raul Martinez (#20) also homered in the game.
• Dan Clayton threw eight shutout innings against Phoenix on Sunday to earn a PotD. He is 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA since the trade. I knew our defense would help him. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he has good control and keeps the ball down. He might start in the playoffs over either Martinez or Sims.
• Kelly Dean was activated and placed on the 40-man roster. Pitcher Ed Gibson was placed on waivers to make room for Dean on the active roster. Gibson was claimed by the Charleston Generals.
• Rodney Wright has begun to show signs of life in the leadoff spot. He is hitting .276 since July 1 and went 8-21 (.381) last week.
• This week: 4 at Dallas (63-61), 3 vs. San Diego (78-47). The Stallions are the team that I fear most as a playoff opponent. Their starting pitching is really good.

[Orcin]

August 27, 2001

Subject: Week 21 Notes

Record: 83-47 .638, - GB
Position: 1st place (19.5 game lead)
Magic Number: 13
Runs Scored: 625 – 4th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 463 – 1st in Federal
Defense: .709 – 4th in Federal
Power Ranking: 113.9 (4th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 86/100


• Last week (4-3): 4-0 at Dallas, 0-3 vs. San Diego
• Rodney Wright broke open a 2-2 game with a grand slam to lead the Colonels to an 11-2 win over Dallas and give Todd Fletcher his 20th win of the season.
• Fletcher lost a 1-0 game to San Diego on Saturday on an unearned run. His record stands at 20-5 with a 1.72 ERA.
• The team just did not hit against the exceptional San Diego pitching staff. Luckily, as it stands now, we will not see the Stallions in the first round. I would hate to face them in a best-of-five series.
• CF Hugh McGlone (.330/.360/.510) strained a hamstring on a defensive play and is expected to miss three weeks (but should return in plenty of time for the playoffs).
• Brian Smith was called up from AAA to replace McGlone on the roster. Harry Hall (L) and Smith (R) will platoon in center field for the next few weeks.
• Julian Mejia will be retained as the utility infielder for the playoff roster. I want a veteran for those pressure situations and Bennett needs the AAA playing time at shortstop.
• SP Ron Sims has signed a four-year contract extension worth $7 million. The final year of the contract is a team option for $2.5M (equal to his arbitration estimate for next season).
• Former Indianapolis manager Ben Blair accepted a four-year contract as pitching coach for the Providence team in the rookie league. That’s too bad. I was looking forward to making him an offer, but I don’t like to fire minor league staff in season.
• This week: 3 vs. Indianapolis (49-81), 3 vs. Washington (70-61)

[Orcin]

September 1, 2001

I called up two players on September 1: SP Jim Poole and spare C Troy Daniels. I don’t like to call up a lot of players just to sit on the bench. I definitely won’t add a young prospect to the 40-man roster for the sole purpose of a September cup of coffee.

I plan to call up SS Russell Bennett when the AAA season ends on September 15 (unless Lexington makes the playoffs). That will probably be it unless I have injuries. Ray Conley would also be a logical candidate for recall, except that he did not play well since going down in mid-season. There will be some tough decisions about contract renewals after the season.

And before you ask… I didn’t call up Duncan Bland because he is not yet on the 40-man roster and because he is struggling at Lexington. Daniels is a good defensive catcher and his presence will allow me to pinch-run for Martinez if needed.