The Hall of Fame Ballot - Page 7

Rasmuth · 11-29-2005, 07:12 PM

When you look at Rice on his baseballreference page...the 10 most similar players....

4 of the 10 are HOF'ers....Cepeda, Snider, B.Williams & Willie Stargell

1 of the others is a probable HOF'er....Sheffield....

so in a weak class when someone is goingi to go in...his credentials may be the best of the lot...

Spielman · 11-29-2005, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Albert Belle is another great player who'll never earn induction. If Belle's career has been as lengthy as that of Rice, Albert would probably be a shoo-in.

I'm actually sort of on the fence about Belle. People have already forgotten how good he was.

Our collective memory as fans is horrible. I blame SportsCenter because it's fun to do.

darkhorse · 11-29-2005, 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spielman

I'm actually sort of on the fence about Belle. People have already forgotten how good he was.

Our collective memory as fans is horrible. I blame SportsCenter because it's fun to do.

Sure, you can go the Koufax route and give him a spot. I'd rather not. Fate is cruel. Oh, well.

darkhorse · 11-29-2005, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rasmuth

When you look at Rice on his baseballreference page...the 10 most similar players....

4 of the 10 are HOF'ers....Cepeda, Snider, B.Williams & Willie Stargell

Most of those guys spent a significant part of their career in the sixties when offense was severely depressed. Rice also had Fenway to swell his numbers.

Luis_Rivera · 11-29-2005, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rasmuth

When you look at Rice on his baseballreference page...the 10 most similar players....

4 of the 10 are HOF'ers....Cepeda, Snider, B.Williams & Willie Stargell

1 of the others is a probable HOF'er....Sheffield....

so in a weak class when someone is goingi to go in...his credentials may be the best of the lot...

Similarity scores are an awful way of determining HoF credibility for a multitude of reasons.

Also, looking at those scores... the only player who'se similarity score is over 900 to him is Cepeda... who was a definitely superior player.

Actually this is a beautiful illustration of why similarity scores suck for this kind of thing. Cepeda is his most similar player... and those scores go by raw numbers. Cepeda played in the '60's... in a completely different run scoring environment than Rice played in.
^^Edit: aka, what DH said

Rasmuth · 11-29-2005, 07:59 PM

well...I get the feeling the the majority of HOF voters do NOT analyze things near as deep as the folk's here...

they look at the raw older baseball numbers...the classics...Average, ERA...probably many still don't consult the newer baseball statistics, they remember specific events...good or bad...and most definately let personalities affect the vote too...

and in some ways this is good and this is bad...

Somebody...will probably get voted in this year...its a weak class...so anything can happen...Rice was a premier slugger in his day who also hit for good average...thats what many voters will remember...and what may be enough for him this particular year...

And the same type of thinking might hurt Blyleven...they see him as merely a pitcher who barely was above .500 for his career...what they forget is he pitched for mostly god-awful teams...

Short effective careers hurt 99.9% of the players eligible who fit that description...ie Mattingly and Murphy...so that could help Blyleven...

there are some great players eligible...many whom were very consistent, but not particularly spectaculer...Garvey for example...six 200 hit seasons, 2600 hits, still the national league Iron Man, an MVP, very solid defensively, 2 all-star MVPs..etc..

Trammell fits this category...Gossage, Tommy John (he pitched very well for crap teams early in his career), Parker...etc...

I think any of these guys deserve to be in as much as say...Pee Wee Reese or Ray Schalk...or Phil Rizzuto...I'm not saying they don't belong in...but maybe we think too hard about who deserves and doesn't deserve, just by using the numbers...

Garvey was a 10 time allstar and won 4 gold gloves on top of what I already mentioned...maybe thats enough...

I focused on Garvey because I just happen to look him up and saw a rather large list of accomplishments as well as an extremely consistent higher-level player throughout his career...

sorry this got long...maybe there isn't a clear cut person based on raw figures, but that doesn't mean someone doesn't belong...

Luis_Rivera · 11-29-2005, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rasmuth

well...I get the feeling the the majority of HOF voters do NOT analyze things near as deep as the folk's here...

Well, I think that's obvious. Whether or not he gets in wasn't the question. It was whether or not he actually deserved to get in.

darkhorse · 11-29-2005, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rasmuth

sorry this got long...maybe there isn't a clear cut person based on raw figures, but that doesn't mean someone doesn't belong...

Bert Blyleven is grossly overqualified. He's one of the greatest pitchers the game has ever seen. Anyone who isn't knowledgeable enough about baseball history to put his career into context and place him at the top of the ballot needs to be removed for someone who does have that ability.

Anyone who reads the local paper(s) in any MLB city is well aware that a large percentage of the BBWAA is incompetent.

Rasmuth · 11-29-2005, 08:09 PM

but who says that WE actually know who deserves to get in? If a player gets voted in...thats enough I guess...for every reason you tell somebody why a player shouldn't get it...I'm sure someone else can tell you just as compelling a reason why that same player should get in...

Luis_Rivera · 11-29-2005, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rasmuth

but who says that WE actually know who deserves to get in? If a player gets voted in...thats enough I guess...for every reason you tell somebody why a player shouldn't get it...I'm sure someone else can tell you just as compelling a reason why that same player should get in...

Well I'd assume this debate will go nowhere, but I'll bite anyway.

There are about a million statistical measures that put value on a player. Most of the "compelling reasons" you're talking about are based on conventional wisdom... which, when it comes to baseball (as most things in life) is largely bull****.

Some people prefer not to look deeper, which is fine. I really don't have a problem with that.. but I think it's unfortunate that those who don't look deeper are often unwilling to understand that there are people that do... and have empirical evidence... actual solid reasons for their beliefs, rather than some conjecture and gut feelings based on what little they have read or seen.

darkhorse · 11-29-2005, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rasmuth

but who says that WE actually know who deserves to get in? If a player gets voted in...thats enough I guess...for every reason you tell somebody why a player shouldn't get it...I'm sure someone else can tell you just as compelling a reason why that same player should get in...

You can use metrics to point out the obvious winners and losers. I'm never annoyed when a fringe candidate gets inducted. Blyleven sitting on the outside is a gross injustice. Sutter getting inducted lowers the HOF standard terribly.

Rasmuth · 11-29-2005, 08:14 PM

Darkhorse...I'm with you...I beleive Blyleven should be in...but I do remember that he played on some terrible teams...

I'm curious Darkhorse...whats your opinion on Tommy John...many similar numbers...especially if you take into account his prime years...and the last 3 or 4 awful seasons...

darkhorse · 11-29-2005, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rasmuth

I'm curious Darkhorse...whats your opinion on Tommy John...many similar numbers...especially if you take into account his prime years...and the last 3 or 4 awful seasons...

I'd vote him in in a heartbeat. Pitched almost 5,000 innings of good ball.

MrWorkrate · 11-30-2005, 12:07 AM

Interesting piece about Belle from Jim Baker in Prospectus today:

Quote:

Belle qualified for the batting title 10 times and had six seasons in which he got into double figures in WARP3. That’s pretty awesome. The two position players with the highest ballot totals last year--without getting elected--were Jim Rice and Andre Dawson. Rice got into double figures in WARP3 once and Dawson never got higher than 8.6 and only broke 8.0 on two other occasions.

Another interesting comp for Belle is Kirby Puckett in that he also had his career cut short by an injury when he was just a year older than Belle (34 to 33). Puckett waltzed into the Hall in no small part because he was loved by young and old alike. That he turned out to be something less than advertised in the character department is, at the very least, ironic. Belle’s career adjusted EqA is .318 to Puckett’s .296.

Now, I've always felt that Puckett's induction was absurd (at least his first ballot induction - not necessarily his eventually getting in), but the fact that Puckett gets in on the first ballot and Belle would be lucky to stay on the ballot for his full 15 years shows what voters are actually looking for.

darkhorse · 11-30-2005, 12:39 AM

"That he turned out to be something less than advertised in the character department is, at the very least, ironic. Belle’s career adjusted EqA is .318 to Puckett’s .296."

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrWorkrate

Now, I've always felt that Puckett's induction was absurd (at least his first ballot induction - not necessarily his eventually getting in), but the fact that Puckett gets in on the first ballot and Belle would be lucky to stay on the ballot for his full 15 years shows what voters are actually looking for.

Outside of gambling or game fixing, I don't give a crud. Mebbe if you were a pedophile or murderer, I'd probably give a pass. Puckett is a poor choice for the HOF, as I don't give any credit for injuries sustained. They're part of the game and if fate frowns, so be it. His career wasn't long enough nor his peak high enough to deserve induction. And yeah, Belle was better. Warts and all.

ctorg · 11-30-2005, 08:00 AM

Probable conversation between typical HOF voters:

Dude1: What do you think of Blyleven?

Dude2: He was pretty good and all, but he was no Nolan Ryan. He didn't have that zip.

Dude1: Yeah, I know what you mean. I'm looking at Mattingly, but his batting stance always bothered me. I don't know if I can vote in a guy with that stance.

Dude2: I think he had some pretty good stats.

Dude1: Probably. I haven't really looked. I like to vote based on how I remember a guy.

Dude2: Yeah, stats can be misleading. They don't tell you much about how a player actually performs.

Dude1: I agree.

Dude2: I'm really thinking about putting in a vote for Gary DiSarcina. I always thought he was a team player who did his job day in and day out.

Dude1: Good point. I may have to vote for him myself. I'm probably putting down Wettlenad, too. He was so good in that '96 World Series.

Joshv02 · 11-30-2005, 08:08 AM

What does everyone think of Pedro Martinez? He's no Sandy Koufax, but he is ok.

ctorg · 11-30-2005, 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshv02

What does everyone think of Pedro Martinez? He's no Sandy Koufax, but he is ok.

He's better than Ron Darling, especially at this point in Ron Darling's career.

reds1 · 01-01-2006, 10:11 PM

Ahh...love to play the 'similarity' card - for Dave Concepcion in this case.

Ozzie Smith vs. Dave Concepcion:

OS: .262 average, 28 homers, 793 RBIs, career fielding percentage of .978 in 19 seasons.

DC: .267 average, 101 home runs, 950 RBIs, career fielding percentage of .972 in 19 seasons.

Garnered a bunch of Gold Gloves and was a multiple All-star shortsop, etc.

My point: With Ozzie's induction in 2002, it makes Concepcion's case for inclusion stronger.

11-29-2005, 07:12 PM	#121
Rasmuth All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Upstate Western NY Posts: 1,760	When you look at Rice on his baseballreference page...the 10 most similar players.... 4 of the 10 are HOF'ers....Cepeda, Snider, B.Williams & Willie Stargell 1 of the others is a probable HOF'er....Sheffield.... so in a weak class when someone is goingi to go in...his credentials may be the best of the lot... __________________ http://www.soundclick.com/bands/defa...?bandID=250426

11-29-2005, 07:59 PM	#126
Rasmuth All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Upstate Western NY Posts: 1,760	well...I get the feeling the the majority of HOF voters do NOT analyze things near as deep as the folk's here... they look at the raw older baseball numbers...the classics...Average, ERA...probably many still don't consult the newer baseball statistics, they remember specific events...good or bad...and most definately let personalities affect the vote too... and in some ways this is good and this is bad... Somebody...will probably get voted in this year...its a weak class...so anything can happen...Rice was a premier slugger in his day who also hit for good average...thats what many voters will remember...and what may be enough for him this particular year... And the same type of thinking might hurt Blyleven...they see him as merely a pitcher who barely was above .500 for his career...what they forget is he pitched for mostly god-awful teams... Short effective careers hurt 99.9% of the players eligible who fit that description...ie Mattingly and Murphy...so that could help Blyleven... there are some great players eligible...many whom were very consistent, but not particularly spectaculer...Garvey for example...six 200 hit seasons, 2600 hits, still the national league Iron Man, an MVP, very solid defensively, 2 all-star MVPs..etc.. Trammell fits this category...Gossage, Tommy John (he pitched very well for crap teams early in his career), Parker...etc... I think any of these guys deserve to be in as much as say...Pee Wee Reese or Ray Schalk...or Phil Rizzuto...I'm not saying they don't belong in...but maybe we think too hard about who deserves and doesn't deserve, just by using the numbers... Garvey was a 10 time allstar and won 4 gold gloves on top of what I already mentioned...maybe thats enough... I focused on Garvey because I just happen to look him up and saw a rather large list of accomplishments as well as an extremely consistent higher-level player throughout his career... sorry this got long...maybe there isn't a clear cut person based on raw figures, but that doesn't mean someone doesn't belong... __________________ http://www.soundclick.com/bands/defa...?bandID=250426

11-29-2005, 08:09 PM	#129
Rasmuth All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Upstate Western NY Posts: 1,760	but who says that WE actually know who deserves to get in? If a player gets voted in...thats enough I guess...for every reason you tell somebody why a player shouldn't get it...I'm sure someone else can tell you just as compelling a reason why that same player should get in... __________________ http://www.soundclick.com/bands/defa...?bandID=250426

11-29-2005, 08:14 PM	#132
Rasmuth All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Upstate Western NY Posts: 1,760	Darkhorse...I'm with you...I beleive Blyleven should be in...but I do remember that he played on some terrible teams... I'm curious Darkhorse...whats your opinion on Tommy John...many similar numbers...especially if you take into account his prime years...and the last 3 or 4 awful seasons... __________________ http://www.soundclick.com/bands/defa...?bandID=250426

11-30-2005, 08:00 AM	#136
ctorg Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Queens, NY Posts: 9,848	Probable conversation between typical HOF voters: Dude1: What do you think of Blyleven? Dude2: He was pretty good and all, but he was no Nolan Ryan. He didn't have that zip. Dude1: Yeah, I know what you mean. I'm looking at Mattingly, but his batting stance always bothered me. I don't know if I can vote in a guy with that stance. Dude2: I think he had some pretty good stats. Dude1: Probably. I haven't really looked. I like to vote based on how I remember a guy. Dude2: Yeah, stats can be misleading. They don't tell you much about how a player actually performs. Dude1: I agree. Dude2: I'm really thinking about putting in a vote for Gary DiSarcina. I always thought he was a team player who did his job day in and day out. Dude1: Good point. I may have to vote for him myself. I'm probably putting down Wettlenad, too. He was so good in that '96 World Series. __________________ My music "When the trees blow back and forth, that's what makes the wind." - Steven Wright Fjord emena pancreas thorax fornicate marmalade morpheme proteolysis smaxa cabana offal srue vitriol grope hallelujah lentils

11-30-2005, 08:08 AM	#137
Joshv02 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: , " Posts: 3,082	What does everyone think of Pedro Martinez? He's no Sandy Koufax, but he is ok. __________________ Brookline Maccabees. RIP

01-01-2006, 10:11 PM	#139
reds1 Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: Winnipeg Posts: 3,985	Ahh...love to play the 'similarity' card - for Dave Concepcion in this case. Ozzie Smith vs. Dave Concepcion: OS: .262 average, 28 homers, 793 RBIs, career fielding percentage of .978 in 19 seasons. DC: .267 average, 101 home runs, 950 RBIs, career fielding percentage of .972 in 19 seasons. Garnered a bunch of Gold Gloves and was a multiple All-star shortsop, etc. My point: With Ozzie's induction in 2002, it makes Concepcion's case for inclusion stronger.