Orcin's Story

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

• RF Ron Hartman is out for the year (9 months) with a broken bone in his elbow!

Wow, this blows...

Originally Posted by Orcin

• Promising teenage prospect Manny Bueno will not return from last year’s broken elbow. The Owensboro CF was informed by team physicians that his career is over.

This blows even more. Seeing 18 year olds with career ending injuries makes me sad.

And come on, that surname would have opened up countless opportunities for the guys in the booth: "It is long! It is fair! It is muy Bueno!"

Was that proper Spanish? I fear the worst...

Ah. Me is sad.

[Orcin]

Pre-Season Adjustments and Planning

The injury to Ron Hartman shakes things up. Jeffrey Jackson is in his contract year and he was quite honestly not in our long-term plans. Now, he will get a chance to earn his next contract; whether it is with us or someone else remains to be seen. By the way, I don’t regret trading Olivares even though he would appear to be the perfect solution to my problem. I prefer that players in the everyday lineup hit over .230.

Jackson is an injury-prone streak hitter with a weak arm, giving me three good reasons to pursue a veteran outfielder as insurance. The familiar name of Manuel Jaramillo stood out for me on the free agent list, even though his skills have diminished a bit and Enriquez rates him as only a 1.5-star outfielder. I like that Jaramillo can play all three outfield spots and he is valuable as a late-inning defensive replacement for Jackson. He is a team leader and will contribute in the locker room. I hope that he can give us some big hits off the bench and be a reliable center fielder in case of an injury to Dominguez.

What about super-prospect Rafael Valdez? He will not be added to the 40-man roster this year. He is only 20 years old with three years of professional experience. He needs a full year at AAA before putting him in the pressure cooker of a major league pennant race. Next year, if Hartman’s recovery is slow… well, that could be a different story.

Larry Marshall (2004 draft, round 1A) is the heir apparent to Russell Bennett as our utility infielder. Therefore, it is logical to make him the injury replacement for Bennett during the month of April, despite of his lack of experience above AA. He won’t be counted on for much offense and it will give him some experience to build on at AAA this year. Ray Holliday is really not in my future plans as a backup infielder since he only plays second base. Octavio Mata does not have as much offensive potential or defensive versatility as Marshall.

Finally, as always, the pitching staff is an important topic. I rely heavily on good starting pitching, and the first three spots in the rotation are as good as any team. Davidson will hopefully return at some point, so only the fifth spot is of any concern. Wilkerson and Hernandez are satisfactory options as a fifth starter, and they will compete for a couple of months until Davidson is ready. Depth is still an issue, and I hope to address it with a veteran free agent. I must wait until tomorrow, when the better remaining free agents will begin to accept minor league contracts. Most of the available pitchers are out of options, so I can’t put them on the 40-man roster until I need them in Louisville.

Why trade Mike Yates and then turn around and sign another veteran pitcher that is out of options? Yates was on the 40-man roster and I could not send him down without exposing him to waivers. The 2006 AAA Pitcher of the Year would not clear waivers in this league. The reliever acquired for Yates (Quinones) could be the replacement for George King, who is in the final year of his contract. Quinones will probably not be the closer, but he is good enough to be a setup man in the future.

[Orcin]

2007 Final Pre-Season Predictions from BNN

The pundits at BNN predict that the Louisville Colonels will finish 94-68 and face the Cincinnati Bobcats in the 2007 World Series. Cincinnati… really… the same Cincinnati team that finished 68-94 last season?

Houston (not Dallas?) and Seatlle are favored to win the other Federal League divisions, with Milwaukee as the wild card. Washington and Atlanta are predicted to win the other Patriot League divisions, with New York as the wild card team.

No Louisville players are listed among the Top Ten Federal League hitters. Dennis Morgan and Duncan Bland have taken their omission as a personal challenge. Robert Westaway and (surprise) rookie Juan Hernandez are listed among the Top Ten pitchers in our league. Antonio Luna didn’t like his snub either.

**********

In case you are curious (I certainly was), the Washington Admirals have 2B Mariano Gonzalez and LF Lorenzo Olivares penciled into their opening day starting lineup. Reliever Leonard Sherman, the third player in the Ordonez trade, is slated to be the setup man for Lucas Sanders. I hope we get as much out of that deal as they did.

[Orcin]

And, for the seventh consecutive season, Henry says…


April 2, 2007

Subject: Personal Message from the Owner – Season Expectation

Otto,

I have now decided on the goal for the coming season. After evaluating several factors, I have come to the conclusion that the team should play .500 ball.

Good Luck!
Henry Cooper

**********

Dear Otto,

Henry is 79 years old now, and it is amazing that he continues to work. Needless to say, he will never change his expectations. It is also goes without saying that you are in no danger of being fired. This has become a pointless exercise, but it is a good opportunity to reinforce our common goals.

1. Win the division championship.
2. Be competitive in the playoffs.
3. Record a financial profit.
4. Keep the pipeline full of young talent.

Good luck!
Gordon Cooper
President and CEO

[dawg_gone]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Otto,

I have now decided on the goal for the coming season. After evaluating several factors, I have come to the conclusion that the team should play .500 ball.

Good Luck!
Henry Cooper

I have become quite fond of Smilin' Henry and his Sunshine Jug Band. May the rest of his years at the top of the mountain exceed his expectations.

[Orcin]

April 2, 2007 (BNN)

Subject: Baseball America Top 100 Prospects

The season is about to start, so it's time to publish the annual Top 100 Prospects list. This year 18-year-old starting pitcher Sonny “Jazz” Allen of the Houston Stars is the #1 prospect overall. Allen was the sixth player taken in the 2006 draft.

Here is the top 10:
1) SP Sonny Allen, 18, Houston Stars
2) SS Sergio Rivera, 19, Charlotte Knights
3) CF Rafael Valdéz, 20, Louisville Colonels
4) SP Carlos Torres, 20, San Francisco Seals
5) LF Bang Ying, 24, Houston Stars
6) SP Robinson Luna, 20, Detroit Titans
7) SP Martin Hampton, 21, Orlando Sharks
8) 1B John Wright, 23, Boston Bombers
9) SS Roberto García, 21, Charleston Generals
10) CF José Cruz, 20, Cleveland Rockers

Houston, San Diego, and Louisville have the top-rated farm systems.

**********

Our farm system has continued to climb, and is now rated #3 with four Top 100 prospects. Valdez is still #3, same as last year. The recently-acquired lefty SP Edgardo Ordonez is rated #20. Juan Hernandez slipped from #25 to #27, but he is also expected to be among the top pitchers in the CBA. Lexington closer Jorge Merced is #97, up two spots from last year. It is significant that none of these players came from our drafts.

The second tier of prospects includes 18-year-old CF Edward Brooks (#134), AAA SP Will Spencer (#157), and 18-year-old SP Juan Jose Rodgers (#190). These players are products of our drafts, so there is hope. Rodgers was last year’s first-round pick and will start at Evansville (A) this year after going 5-5 with a 3.48 ERA in rookie ball. Enriquez found a diamond in the rough, taking him toward the end of the first round (#23).

[Orcin]

April 2, 2007

Opening day lineup vs. Milwaukee

3B Pierre-Louis Simon
2B Tom John
LF Dennis Morgan
CF Pedro Dominguez
C Duncan Bland
1B Chris Brown
RF Jeffrey Jackson
SS Cristo Rodriguez
P Robert Westaway

This is not quite the lineup that I projected in the off-season, but it is close. If I had to lose a starter, I guess Hartman is easier to replace than some of the others. This is a battle-tested, veteran team that should be able to withstand a little adversity.

The opening day payroll is #16 in the CBA at $96.5M (including personnel). The $146M budget ranks #15.

[Orcin]

April 9, 2007

Subject: Week 1 Notes

Record: 5-1, .833, - GB
Position: 1st place (1 game lead over Indianapolis)
Runs Scored: 23 – 9th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 8 – 1st in Federal
Defense: .743 – 1st in Federal
Power Ranking: 158.0, (t1st in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 97/100

• Last week (5-1): 2-1 at Milwaukee, 3-0 vs. Phoenix
• 04/03: LOU 1, MIL 0 – Westaway 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 0 K; King SV(1)
• 04/04: MIL 3, LOU 0 – Castillo (MIL) 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K
• Indianapolis signed free agent SP Michael Irwin for 1 year at $2.8M. I offered Irwin 1 year at $2M but I would not go higher with Hernandez available as an alternative.
• 04/05: LOU 4, MIL 0 – Alexander 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 0 K; Trejo SV(1)
• 04/06: LOU 3, PHX 1 – Wilkerson 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 10K; Bland 3-run HR
• Dallas RF Brock Richardson was 5-5 in a 9-5 victory over San Diego.
• Atlanta signed their star CF Angel Quintero to a 5-year extension at $18M/year.
• 04/07: LOU 6, PHX 2 – Hernandez 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 4 BB, 6 K; Brooks SV(1)
• 04/08: LOU 9, PHX 2 – Westaway 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 5 K
• SP David Harrison gave Houston a quick payback on his big free agent contract with a 3-hit shutout over Indianapolis.
• Attendance for our first three games averaged 36,880 (99.4% of capacity).
• Washington LF Lorenzo Olivares leads the CBA with a 1.605 OPS after 6 games. He is hitting .421 with 4 HRs already. *sigh*
• This week: 3 vs. New York, 3 at Salt Lake City

The free agent pool lacks quality veteran starting pitchers. I will stand pat, leaving open the possibility of a trade for a starter if it becomes necessary. You may recall that I was able to obtain Ron MacLain at the deadline a couple of years ago, and there should be similar opportunities this time. Chip Davidson should return in June and, if the rest of the rotation stays healthy, I should not need another starter if I can make it until then.

[Orcin]

April 16, 2007

Subject: Week 2 Notes

Record: 8-4, .667, - GB
Position: 1st place (1 game lead over Indianapolis)
Runs Scored: 44 – t11th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 28 – 1st in Federal
Defense: .765 – 1st in Federal
Power Ranking: 123.0 (t1st in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 97/100

• 3-3 last week, 1-2 vs. New York, 2-1 at Salt Lake City
• 04/09: LOU 2, NY 1 (11) – Bland 2-4, DBL, RBI, SB, scored winning run
• 04/10: NY 2, LOU 1 – Alexander 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K; Garza took the loss
• Reliever Phil Davies was injured on 04/10 – diagnosis pending.
• 04/11: NY 10, LOU 7 – Morgan 2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI; Wilkerson 5.1 IP, 7 ER
• Phoenix RF Roy Newbury hit career HR #300 in a win over Philadelphia.
• Lexington LF Juan Cortez will miss a month with a hamstring injury.
• 04/13: LOU 3, SLC 0 – impressive 2-hit shutout by rookie Juan Hernandez!
• Davies was diagnosed with a forearm strain and will likely miss 2 months.
• Rookie reliever Francisco Rodriguez was call up to replace Davies in the pen.
• 04/14: LOU 6, SLC 4 – Morgan 2-4, HR, 3 RBI; Bland 2-3, RBI
• Phoenix reliever Mike MacIntosh is out for the year with Tommy John surgery.
• 04/15: SLC 3, LOU 2 – Luna 8 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 7 K, L (0-2, 2.35)
• Lexington’s Arlen Craig was AAA Player of the Week (.429, 9-21, 4 HR, 6 RBI)
• Next week: 3 at Boston, 3 vs. Chicago


Jorge Figueroa pitched the first game of the New York series. There were rumors about him in spring training, and they have been confirmed by my own eyes. His velocity on his slider and sinker are way down – only hitting 86 mph on our gun. He never threw a conventional fastball anyway, but that sinker used to pop the mitt at about 92-94mph. He still has good movement on the breaking stuff and he is pretty crafty, so we’ll see how long he can fool people. He looked pretty good against us, allowing only one run in eight innings of work.

[cmaug]

great job on this, Orcin

a great way to kill down time at work over the past 2 weeks

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

• 4-2 last week, 2-1 vs. New York, 2-1 at Salt Lake City
• 04/09: LOU 2, NY 1 (11) – Bland 2-4, DBL, RBI, SB, scored winning run
• 04/10: NY 2, LOU 1 – Alexander 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K; Garza took the loss
• Reliever Phil Davies was injured on 04/10 – diagnosis pending.
• 04/11: NY 10, LOU 7 – Morgan 2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI; Wilkerson 5.1 IP, 7 ER

Dear Mr. Orcin, you may wish to invest more time into proof-reading Jennifer's notes. She seems to have spent the whole week staring at the Colonels players' muscles rather than at the scoreboard.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Westheim

Dear Mr. Orcin, you may wish to invest more time into proof-reading Jennifer's notes. She seems to have spent the whole week staring at the Colonels players' muscles rather than at the scoreboard.

Right again, thanks.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Right again, thanks.

I can spot a typo in your reports from 6,000 miles away, but I can't beat a team to a .500 record for my life myself. Isn't it ironic...

[Orcin]

April 23, 2007

Subject: Week 3 Notes

Record: 12-6, .667, - GB
Position: 1st place (3 game lead over Indianapolis)
Runs Scored: 74 – 13th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 47 – 1st in Federal
Defense: .731 – 2nd in Federal
Power Ranking: 125.0, 5th in CBA
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 97/100

• 4-2 last week, 1-2 at Boston, 3-0 vs. Chicago
• 04/16: LOU 5, BOS 2 – Morgan 4-5, solo HR; Brown 3-4, DBL, RBI
• 04/17: BOS 3, LOU 1 – Harris (BOS) 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K
• 04/18: BOS 5, LOU 4 – Hernandez 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 9 K; King BS(1), L (0-1)
• WAS LF Lorenzo Olivares (.367, 6 HR) has a strained PCL, out 3 weeks
• 04/20: LOU 8, CHI 7 (13) – Bland 3-3, HR, 2 RBI; offense and bullpen overcame a rough outing by Westaway
• 04/21: LOU 6, CHI 2 – Luna 9 IP, 2 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 5 K; Bland 3-4, solo HR
• Veteran MR Rob Bryant was called up from AAA and lefty MR Francisco Rodriguez was optioned back for more seasoning.
• 04/22: LOU 6, CHI 0 – shutout by Alexander 9 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 9 K
• Ray Alexander is 3-0 with a miniscule 0.31 ERA in four starts. He is just hitting his prime at age 28, and he already has a 68-34 career mark in just four seasons.
• Attendance continues to average 36,881 per game (99.5% of capacity), so the price increase has apparently been accepted by our fan base.
• I am not worried (yet) about our lack of run production. I don’t think Dennis Morgan will hit .175 (his current average through 18 games) for the entire season.
• This week: 3 vs. Houston, 4 at Seattle

[Jabez54]

Starting off in another typical Orcin's Fashion ... "Leader of the Pack" ...

[gehrig38]

Orcin, how do you manage your schedule to allow 1 interleague series? I'd love to do that if it's not a huge hassle.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by gehrig38

Orcin, how do you manage your schedule to allow 1 interleague series? I'd love to do that if it's not a huge hassle.

I use a set of custom schedules by GMO from this thread. You might be able to find a similar one to fit your league structure on the schedule mod forum.

[Orcin]

April 30, 2007

Subject: Week 4 Notes

Record: 15-10, .600, - GB
Position: 1st place (0.5 game lead over Chicago)
Runs Scored: 97 – 14th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 74 – 1st in Federal
Defense: .720 – 1st in Federal
Power Ranking: 109.0 (7th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 98/100 (+1)

• 3-4 last week, 0-3 vs. Houston, 3-1 at Seatlle
• 04/23: HOU 3, LOU 2 – Harrison (HOU) 8 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 K, W (3-0, 2.41)
• SS Russell Bennett was sent to Lexington on a rehab assignment.
• 04/24: HOU 6, LOU 1 – Brown (HOU) 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K, W (4-0, 1.17)
• Houston free agent acquisition Jeff Johnson was 4-5 to raise his average to .411
• 04/25: HOU 8, LOU 2 – Miller (HOU) 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K, W (2-1, 1.82)
• Houston used our own weapon – great starting pitching – against us for the sweep.
• Westaway gave up 7 runs in 3 innings yesterday, and is now 3-1 with a 6.23 ERA.
• Charlotte 1B Jon Schultz hit career homer #400 to beat the Generals 8-5.
• Struggling RF Manuel Jaramillo (2 hits in 28 at bats) accepted a demotion and was optioned to AAA.
• RF Pablo Guzman was claimed off waivers from Atlanta to replace Jaramillo on the active roster (more detail on this transaction and player in the next post).
• 04/26: LOU 6, SEA 0 – shutout by Luna 9 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 K
• 04/27: LOU 6, SEA 3 – Morgan 2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
• Prospect SP Edgardo Ordonez is 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA in four AAA starts.
• 04/28: LOU 1, SEA 0 – Wilkerson 8.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K; King SV(5)
• CL George King wants a new contract. He is proposing 4 years @ $4.6M/year. That’s a very reasonable opening offer considering his performance and age (30).
• 04/29: SEA 7, LOU 5 – John 4-5, DBL, 2 RBI
• I simply refuse to accept that our offense is this bad. Yes, we lost Hartman, but that should not be enough to drop us from #1 to #14. We will start hitting soon (I hope).
• This week: 4 at Sacramento, 3 vs. Seattle

[Orcin]

Subject: Waiver Claim of RF Pablo Guzman

Pablo Guzman is a 26-year-old left-handed hitter with decent power, great speed, and exceptional defensive skills (he is rated at 10 in RF with an arm rating of 8). He was an international discovery (1998) and rose rapidly through the Atlanta farm system. He was rated as the CBA’s #39 prospect in April 2001. Guzman split time between Atlanta and their AAA team for a couple of years, before hitting .283 with 27 home runs in 2005 as Atlanta’s starting right-fielder. For some unknown reason, he slumped to a .233 average in 2006 and saw his playing time reduced. Atlanta began to look for other options.

Two days ago, the Flames promoted outfield prospect Colby Chaney and tried to sneak Guzman (who is out of options) through waivers to stash him at AAA. Nice try, but we need someone to replace Hartman and the combination of Jackson/Jaramillo is not getting the job done. Enriquez thinks that the 2005 Guzman is the real player and he will get a chance to prove it as the starter here. Guzman makes $700,000 this year as a result of his first arbitration award, so we don’t have much at risk except playing time.

There is something really satisfying about filling a need on the waiver wire as opposed to a trade. It just feels like “getting over” on the AI. Since I am in the opposite league from Atlanta and in first place, every CBA team passed on their chance at Guzman. We’ll see if they were right, or if Enriquez and I have made a better judgment of his value. It could also be that other teams evaluated him properly but just did not have a spot for him. He is not a star, but he might fill a really important role for me this year if he returns to his 2005 form. He also might free up Jackson for a mid-season trade.

By the way, I will not exploit the AI by claiming a guy that is out of options and then waiving him myself (knowing that he will clear because he already did) in order to gain his services without consuming a spot on the 40-man roster. That just feels like cheating to me, even though the game allows it. If I claim a player with no remaining options, my house rule is that he must go on my active roster for at least ten days (which means I must make room within the rules and can’t just stash him on the DFA list for ten days).

[dawg_gone]

Fascinating stuff about Guzman's waiver claim. I'm running a historical league and made a waiver claim for a guy that, like Guzman, had a down year and the club moved him to make room for a new guy -- in my case they traded for a new guy. Well, the guy I claimed exploded into an All Star and then finished the season with the highest WAR and #2 BA in the majors. He had never performed remotely like that before, but then I'm at a hitter's ballpark. I sometimes wonder if a change of location is simply the key. Guzman might have been on a downward spiral at Atlanta, and may yet become the next Thrill in the 'Ville. Or it could be the incentive that Jaramillo needs to get his act in gear.