2007 New York Yankees Thread

[Joshv02]

Few things are ever a crapshoot - except, well, shooting craps. Or crap - whatever gets your rocksoff.

Statistics are an indicia of a greater skill - but they aren't perfect indicators of that skill. Being very good anywhere is no gaurantee of success. It is an indiciation of the likelihood of future success. Over the long haul, success in the Japanese league is roughly similar to success in the International League AAA (not the PCL) and the stats, for a group of people, will be predictable to a certain range of variance.

If you add in scouting knowledge to that statistical knowledge, you have better information. But, that is the same as when you are scouting players in AAA as in the Nippon league.

For Igawa, I thought that his scouting reprot indicated that the skill he possessed was unlikely to translate into the same success here. I did not think that for Matsuzaka, and I don't think that for Fukedome when he becomes a FA. Others with a lot more knowledge than I will have much more informed decisions.

[Joshv02]

Not to answer for LR, but...

In April/May, Matsuzaka was bunching his hits - I didn't see that he ever had that problem before and I didn't think that it would continue. But, I didn't know that it wouldn't continue b/c I didn't have enough information. But, while he was a little wild, his stuff has always been the same - low 90s FB that gets to 95, good movement on his slider/curve/change, and the occasioinal flat pitch - either FB or slider - that gets hammered.

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

On a related topic, how did you feel about Matsuzaka early on. Was it really always "bad luck" and "Hell, I still considered Mats a top 5 pitcher in the league when his ERA was ~4.50" or did you have any doubts?

When his ERA was that high, his K/BB ratio was still 3/1. I was very far from concerned. His problem was a bunching of hits and walks... plus he had to pitch against inordinately tough competition early on.

The bunching tends to even out over time, and you can't blame someone for doing a little worse against tougher competition.

edit: uh, what josh said

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

When his ERA was that high, his K/BB ratio was still 3/1. I was very far from concerned. His problem was a bunching of hits and walks... plus he had to pitch against inordinately tough competition early on.

The bunching tends to even out over time, and you can't blame someone for doing a little worse against tougher competition.

Well then, if you were that astute with Matsuzaka, I am afraid your assessment of Igawa will also be accurate. Not good.

By the way, I have been forgetting about this Okajima guy, whom you got for a comparative song and who just made the All-Star team, I believe. How did this happen? Two successful Japanese acquisitions this year to none. Do you think this is fair? This does not appear fair to me.

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by Joshv02

Statistics are an indicia of a greater skill - but they aren't perfect indicators of that skill. Being very good anywhere is no gaurantee of success. It is an indiciation of the likelihood of future success. Over the long haul, success in the Japanese league is roughly similar to success in the International League AAA (not the PCL) and the stats, for a group of people, will be predictable to a certain range of variance.

That's the point that I was trying to make. You throw millions at guys who have proven themselves and hope that they continue, not AAA prospects. Normally, you bring a guy up from International League AAA and give him a ML minimum contract. Thinking in free agency terms for established Japanese stars is a crapshoot, as you put it, but a very expensive one for those players that don't pan out (Fat Toad Irabu, Kaz Matsui, Hideo Nomo, a bunch of others that I cannot recall, and now Kei Igawa).

[Luis_Rivera]

In what way did Hideo Nomo not work out? He was league average or above in 7 of 11 seasons. He just had a really ugly finish to his career.

[Luis_Rivera]

...and what about Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Hideki Okajima, Tadahito Iguchi, Kenji Johjima, Hideki Matsui, Ichiro, and So Taguchi (who is what he was expected to be)?

These are all successes. People tend to remember failures more. It's not nearly as risky as people think.

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

...and what about Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Hideki Okajima, Tadahito Iguchi, Kenji Johjima, Hideki Matsui, Ichiro, and So Taguchi (who is what he was expected to be)?

These are all successes. People tend to remember failures more. It's not nearly as risky as people think.

Yes, but suddenly the stakes are much, much higher.

[Joshv02]

The stakes were not particularly high with Okajima, Saito, or, really, Iwamura.

Just Matsuzaka and Igawa. For one it was worth it - or at least worth some large amount of $$, even if not "it". For the other, it wasn't.

[mlyons]

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

Yes, but suddenly the stakes are much, much higher.

No more so than any other free-agent signings. There've been plenty of multi-million dollar busts with players signed from other MLB teams. Surely you haven't forgotten Carl Pavano already?

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

...and what about Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Hideki Okajima, Tadahito Iguchi, Kenji Johjima, Hideki Matsui, Ichiro, and So Taguchi (who is what he was expected to be)?

These are all successes. People tend to remember failures more. It's not nearly as risky as people think.

and Kazuo Matsui has played good ball since his move to Colorado.

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

You are aware that they already sent this guy down to Single-A (as a convenience to the pitching coaches in Tampa, though, not as an indication of his quality) to be taught a better delivery?

Igawa only pitched 9 innings at A ball. He made four starts for their AAA affiliate and did very well.

http://firstinning.com/players/Kei-Igawa-a/

[CMH]

I'm going to defend Luis here because just taking from the top of the class in Matsui, Ichiro, and Matzusaka it seems that scouts have been right about them.

They said that Matsui wouldn't be a 50-homer guy in the U.S. The New York Media wanted you to believe he was still "Godzilla" in New York but the truer predictions proved right. Matsui was a patient hitter that could hit for average and hit at most 30 homeruns.

The knock on Ichiro was his style. "He hits too many balls on the ground." "He tries to beat out too many dribblers. It'll catch up to him and his average." But no one doubted the man could hit. It was just a concern of how he got his hits. As Spring Training went on Ichiro proved he could be a faster Tony Gwynn by spraying hits all over the field and he's just as good, if not better, in the U.S. than he was in Japan.

Dick-K was predicted to be a strikeout pitcher with a wide assortment of pitches. He hasn't disappointed.

When you look at the other guys people tend to forget about I would say that scouting reports on them were basically head on as well.

Yes, you'll have your slight mistakes. No one is perfect in evaluating talent. Some guys happen to pick it up later (Iguchi). Overall the evaluations are right.

[CMH]

dola,

To throw it on thread topic.

There were many concerns about Igawa. He was compared to Greg Maddux in Japan. Even then scouts were concerned about his ability to transfer that over to the States.

Cashman even warned that Igawa was at best a Number 5 pitcher. That's not really saying much.

The only reason Igawa gets so much press about his struggle is because he's 1) A Japanese Pitcher, 2) Plays for the Yankees, and 3) Happened to be signed the same year a Rival signed the best Japanese pitcher in the market.

In reality, his performance is right about where it was expected.

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by YankeePride

Ichiro proved he could be a faster Tony Gwynn by spraying hits all over the field and he's just as good, if not better, in the U.S. than he was in Japan.

A great player in MLB, but he was quite a bit better in the J League.

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...24&postcount=8

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by mlyons

Surely you haven't forgotten Carl Pavano already?

Arrrgh! HUUUnnnnunnnh. (Grasps chest, falls on floor, kicks, and convulses).

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by darkhorse

and Kazuo Matsui has played good ball since his move to Colorado.

I would play good ball in Colorado (batwise, at least), baseball humidors notwithstanding!

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by YankeePride

I'm going to defend Luis here [snip a good post].

That was my point, one of them at least. Only the very best from over there is going to be good here.

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by YankeePride

There were many concerns about Igawa. He was compared to Greg Maddux in Japan. Even then scouts were concerned about his ability to transfer that over to the States.

Cashman even warned that Igawa was at best a Number 5 pitcher. That's not really saying much.

The only reason Igawa gets so much press about his struggle is because he's 1) A Japanese Pitcher, 2) Plays for the Yankees, and 3) Happened to be signed the same year a Rival signed the best Japanese pitcher in the market.

In reality, his performance is right about where it was expected.

You did not mention the other thing that I have read here, which would make the millions spent seem reasonable: The Oriental Baseball Market.

Dola x 3, by the way. I beg your pardons.

[mlyons]

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

That was my point, one of them at least. Only the very best from over there is going to be good here.

I wouldn't necessarily phrase it that strongly. Shigetoshi Hasagawa wasn't exactly a superstar in Japan, after all, nor was Tomo Ohka. Both have had respectable MLB careers.