Orcin's Brave New World

[Tyke]

You mean this is NOT real baseball?.....

[Orcin]

Standings @ June 15, 2021



Leaders @ June 15, 2021

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals (38-29) @ San Diego Padres (38-29)
The Padres have the same record as the Cardinals, yet they are 8 games out of first place in their division. We go from the most extreme hitter’s park in the league to the most extreme pitcher’s park. The exact opposite of the Rockies, the Padres are near the top of the N.L. in fewest runs allowed, but they are near the bottom in runs scored. The Cardinals lead the season series with the Padres 4-3.


June 17, 2021: OFF
We signed our second-round draft pick, SP Harry Smith, to a minor league contract with a $2 million signing bonus. All draft picks are now signed.


June 18, 2021: G068 (39-29, 1st, +4G)

Star: STL RF-CF Vance Knox 2-6, DBL, HR, 2 RBI (GWRBI)

CF Albert Almora (.258-9-25, 11 SB) was injured when he ran into the center field wall to make a game-saving catch. He has a strained rib cage muscle and will be out four weeks. Vance Knox will take over in center field with Dutch Deol moving to right field. Victor Sharp was recalled from Memphis for another try in left field, after knocking the cover off the ball (.524 with 12 RBI in 10 games) since he was sent down.

You (not you) will play left field every third day and against left-handed pitchers to stay sharp (not Sharp – wow, this is getting complicated).


June 19, 2021: G069 (40-29, 1st, +5G)

Star: STL RF Dutch Deol 1-3, HR, 4 RBI (GWRBI)
Tarou Sano’s league-leading 19th HR in the 7th inning was measured at 467 feet.
Shortstop J.P. Crawford began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Memphis.


June 20, 2021: G070 (41-29, 1st, +5G)

Star: STL DH Tarou Sano 2-5, DBL, HR, RBI


Players of the Week:
AL: LAA C Zach Wright 10-21, 6 HR, 10 RBI
NL: ATL C Carlos Rea 8-17, 5 HR, 8 RBI

Palm Beach SP Wayne Hathaway was named the Florida State League (high-A) Player of the Week, going 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA. The 23-year-old right-hander was drafted in the 15th round of the 2018 draft as a freshman out of Wichita State. He has performed well at every level of the minors and we must begin to seriously consider him as a prospect.


Roster Decisions
Shortstop J.P. Crawford is ready to return to the lineup as soon as I clear a spot for him on the active roster. Veteran shortstop Cristhian Adames was signed a month ago to fill in for Crawford, and he has played well. The switch-hitting Adames is 11-34 against left-handers. I want him to remain on the roster as a right-handed pinch-hitter and frequent sub for Crawford against lefties. Maybe the extra rest will help Crawford to stay healthy.

I could option utility infielder Hector Rios to AAA, since I can cover all the infield spots between Adames and T-Mick. Matt Snyder would play first base in place of T-Mick if he is needed elsewhere. Sending Snyder down to AAA is also an idea, but he has the right to refuse a demotion. I haven’t taken his pulse on that possibility so far, first preferring to decide which player to keep.

Snyder and Rios are both left-handed hitters. They have each played in 32 games with roughly 125 plate appearances, and they are both performing at replacement player level. Snyder only plays first base, and he has zero speed. Rios plays three positions and is an excellent base runner. Snyder’s options have no value to me, since he won’t be back after this season. It’s a no brainer, right?

[Orcin]

Philadelphia Phillies (42-29) @ St. Louis Cardinals (41-29)
This series features two division leaders, and Wednesday’s game will be broadcast nationally on BNN. Philadelphia recently lost SP Ryan Gibson (5-3, 2.72) to Tommy John surgery. We are 2-5 against the Phillies so far this season.

Philadelphia has a very good rookie first baseman named Pablo Martinez (.337-7-18 in 30 games). Martinez has beaten out incumbent Larry Greene, who is now DH’ing. The Phillies are shopping Greene, and he is tempting. Greene hit .279 with 35 HR and 103 RBI in 2020, and he is still club-controlled with an arbitration estimate around $4M. However, Greene bats left-handed. I am hoping for a right-handed slugger to balance my lineup. I am finding that right-handed sluggers are rare and expensive.


June 21, 2021: OFF
J.P. Crawford was activated from the disabled list. Matt Snyder was optioned to AAA to make room for Crawford on the roster. Snyder accepted his assignment and will DH for Memphis. (Prospect Josh Williams is still learning to play first base and will remain at the position there. Williams is a right-handed slugger, by the way.)


June 22, 2021: G071 (41-30, 1st, +4.5G)

Star: CF Bryce Harper 3-5, 2 DBL, GWRBI

Rebuilding San Francisco traded SP Kyle Smith (7-5, 2.78) to Seattle for two very young prospects. The Mariners continue to fiddle with their starting rotation. Smith will become their #1 starter and recently-acquired Michael Pineda will go to the bullpen.


June 23, 2021: G072 (42-30, 1st, +5.5G)

Star: STL SP Jake Odorizzi 9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 12 K
Odorizzi’s 1-hit shutout was the #1 Performance of the Day with a game score of 94.
T-Mick was 2-4 with a HR and 4 RBI.


June 24, 2021: G073 (42-31, 1st, +5.5G)

Star: PHI SP Drew Pomeranz 7.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 12 K (#2 PotD)
Cristhian Adames played short vs. the left-hander and was 2-4 with a solo homer.
Ryder Jones (0-3) left the bases loaded in the 7th and stranded 4 runners on the day.

Colorado LF Josh Hamilton (.289-19-54) is out for the year with a broken ankle. The 40-year-old was on his way to an all-star selection.


Cardinals Swap Parnell to White Sox for Stewart
The “win now” White Sox acquired 36-year-old reliever Bobby Parnell to upgrade their bullpen. Parnell was signed to a minor league contract by St. Louis prior to the season and had pitched well at AAA. He was not going to make the big-league club in St. Louis, with multiple young relievers ahead of him now.

The Cardinals receive 26-year-old SP Kohl Stewart, a former first-round pick (2013) out of high school who has struggled above AA level. Stewart had been used in the bullpen in Chicago, but he will start at Memphis for us in an attempt to polish his skills. Stewart has a plus-plus fastball but his slider and changeup are just average. He keeps the ball down with good control, so we hope that he can improve his secondary pitches.

Stewart makes the major league minimum with just over one year of MLB service time, and he will be out of minor league options after this season. This is a no-risk deal and we think Stewart is worth a look.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals (42-31) @ Milwaukee Brewers (27-47)
The Brewers are in a familiar place, bringing up the rear in the N.L. Midwest Division. They have lost seven in a row, so they are due to bust out with a big series. This is our first visit to Milwaukee’s Miller Park, which seats 42,200 and slightly favors hitters. We took 2 out of 3 against the Brewers in St. Louis earlier this season.


June 25, 2021: G074 (43-31, 1st, +5.5G)

Star: STL SP Jose Flores 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
Ryder Jones had two solo homers for the Redbirds. J.P. Crawford had three hits.


Milestone: Atlanta Braves closer Craig Kimbrel recorded his 400th career save, the 7th player to do so. The 33-year-old reliever is only 24 saves behind John Franco for #5 on the all-time list.


June 26, 2021: G075 (43-32, 1st, +4.5G)

Star: MIL CF Luis Valenzuela 3-7, HR 2, RBI (GWRBI)
Rodebaugh gave up 5 runs in 2 innings, including back-to-back homers in the 12th.
The bullpen blew 3 saves in the game; Rodebaugh blew the save twice!


Pitching Staff Changes
It’s time for some accountability after that gut-wrenching defeat. Ray Chambers’ last four starts have not gone well: 18.2 IP, 30 H, 20 ER, 13 BB, 17 K. Michael Wacha will move back into the rotation in the #4 slot. Ray Chambers will go to the bullpen to work out his difficulties in long relief. Reliever Ryan Rodebaugh was horrible in yesterday’s extra inning game, and 24-year-old Darryl Chambers is absolutely killing it at AAA (15 saves, 1.14 WHIP, 55 Ks in 31 IP). Rodebaugh will be optioned back to Memphis with Darryl Chambers taking over the role of 7th-inning setup man in St. Louis.


June 27, 2021: G076 (43-33, 1st, +3.5G)

Star: MIL SP Chris Kohler 9 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K

Rosenthal tired in the 9th. Friend replaced him to pitch to a LH cleanup hitter, but Milwaukee pinch-hit with RHB Sheldon Neuse who socked a walk-off homer.

Yankees ace SP Kyle Gibson (11-2, 2.36) will miss 3 months with an elbow strain.

Memphis SP John Lamb threw a no-hitter vs. the Iowa Cubs.


Players of the Week:
AL: HOU 3B Ramiro Pina 11-24, 2 HR, 7 RBI
NL: COL LF Dominic Smith 14-25, 3 HR, 8 RBI

Palm Beach 1B Jim Farmer was Player of the Week in the Florida State League (high-A). Farmer was 7-11 with 2 HR and 9 RBI.

State College DH Evan Johnson was Player of the Week in the New York-Penn League (short-A). Johnson was 12-27 in the opening week of their season.

[Orcin]

New York Yankees (51-24) @ St. Louis Cardinals (43-33)
This is a marquee interleague matchup between two first-place clubs. The Yankees have the #1 offense and the #2 defense in the American League, but recent injuries have weakened their starting rotation. The Yankees are managed by Joe Maddon, who just took over the team this year after serving as their bench coach from 2015-20 under current Cardinals manager Joe Girardi.


June 28, 2021: OFF
I shopped several excess players today, including 1B Matt Snyder, but I failed to come up with an appealing deal. There are some useful players available, but the price tag is too high in all cases. There is still a month before the trade deadline.

The first game in this series figures to be a pitcher’s duel with Jake Odorizzi (10-4, 3.03 ERA) facing New York ace Yordano Ventura (9-3, 2.54 ERA).


June 29, 2021: G077 (43-34, 1st, +2G)

Star: STL SP Jake Odorizzi 7.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 K (#2 PotD)

But… Odorizzi was removed from the game in the 8th inning after pitch #114 caused him some discomfort. The diagnosis is pending. Then things turned bad.

Rex Brothers put the first two left-handed batters on base to start the 9th inning. Darryl Chambers entered the game and retired the first two men that he faced. The next batter reached on an error by T-Mick at first base on a play that should have ended the game. RF Justin Williams made us pay for that mistake with a 3-run homer into the right field seats for the winning runs.

The Chicago Cubs have won 5 in a row to reduce our division lead to only 2 games.

Detroit Tigers rookie Marcos Chavez (6-2, 2.66) tossed a no-hitter against the Athletics.


June 30, 2021: G078 (43-35, 1st, +2G)

Star: STL C Jorge Alfaro 1-3, grand slam in the 1st inning

After the game, we received the diagnosis on Jake Odorizzi. The discomfort that he felt was due to a torn fingernail. He won’t miss a start. (Whew!)


Players of the Month for June:
LAA C Zach Wright (.337-13-30)
WAS 1B Chris Parmalee (.333-10-22)

Pitchers of the Month for June:
BOS SP Rubby De La Rosa (5-1, 1.59)
MIA SP Danny Hultzen (5-0, 2.86)


June Organizational Highlights:
Memphis SP Tyrell Jenkins was Pacific Coast League (AAA) Pitcher of the Month (5-0, 1.59). Jenkins has cleared waivers and serves as insurance against injury to a starting pitcher, giving us the flexibility to leave top prospect Gerard Thompson in AAA all year. However, Jenkins has drawn some trade interest because of his low price tag ($1.1M) and strong performance at Memphis. He could be a good piece to move for a prospect at the trade deadline.

Peoria LF Diego Blanco was Midwest League (low-A) Player of the Month (.376-9-24) and earned himself a promotion to Palm Beach (high-A). Peoria SP David Blake was the Midwest League Pitcher of the Month (4-0, 1.22).


July 1, 2021: G079 (43-36, 1st, +1.5G)

Star: NYA SP Carlos Diaz 8.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K (#1 PotD)
Our losing streak is now 5 games and our lead over the Cubs continues to shrink.

[Westheim]

Huh. I'm slightly upset by the Yankees beating up the Cardinals. Didn't see that ever happening.

[boblight24]

I'm curious, do you play out the games or just sim them?

FYI - this is such a refreshing dynasty, not since Pat O'Farrell have I been so enamored with reading about the goings on of a baseball club.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by boblight24

I'm curious, do you play out the games or just sim them?

I play out every inning of every game. Thanks for the kind words.

[boblight24]

Originally Posted by Orcin

I play out every inning of every game. Thanks for the kind words.

Well that's great news to me. I can tell you this with no hesitation you (not You) have lit the fire inside me to try and create a dynasty of my own. I had almost given up, in fact I came to these boards one last time to see if I could rekindle that desire, it wasn't until I started reading this thread that I realized that I can create a universe of my own. Thank you for that and thank you for this thread and I will be watching.

[boblight24]

Originally Posted by Orcin

I play out every inning of every game. Thanks for the kind words.

Sorry...rewind.....

Do you control the game (i.e manage) or just let the computer play with the strategies that you have set?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by boblight24

Do you control the game (i.e manage) or just let the computer play with the strategies that you have set?

I make all of the decisions/substitutions, for better or worse.

I control the lineups and pitching assignments. I control all of the roster moves. I really don't let the computer do anything except roll the dice for me and play the other 29 teams.

I use the one-pitch mode, and I turn the warmup rule off (i.e. no warmup required).

[GoBucsGo]

Orcin, long time reader of your dynasty reports, but this, this has to be my favorite. Your presentation is flawless, and the way you keep the reader hooked in with a story is unfathomable. I patiently await your next update.

[boblight24]

Forgive me, I feel like I've exceeded my question quota for the week.

What MLB QuickStart did you use? The one in the game or did you download it?

Thanks!

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by GoBucsGo

Orcin, long time reader of your dynasty reports, but this, this has to be my favorite. Your presentation is flawless, and the way you keep the reader hooked in with a story is unfathomable. I patiently await your next update.

Thank you for that encouragement.

To all: I know my pace is really slow lately, so I apologize for that. A couple of personal issues have gotten in the way of my playing time. I am playing a little here and there, so I will try to at least update a couple of times per week until things get back to normal. Thanks for being patient.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by boblight24

Forgive me, I feel like I've exceeded my question quota for the week.

What MLB QuickStart did you use? The one in the game or did you download it?

No problem, there is no quota.

I used the MLB Quickstart in the game, and I didn't change anything except the rules that I noted in this thread.

[Orcin]

Los Angeles Dodgers (52-27) @ St. Louis Cardinals (43-36)
The last thing you want to see when you are on a losing streak is the Dodgers rolling into town for a three-game set. We lost three of four in L.A. back in May. It appears that Odorizzi will not be ready to start Sunday, so we will probably throw Ray Chambers in that game. Odorizzi will only get two starts before the all-star break anyway.


July 2, 2021: G080 (43-37, 1st, +1.5G)

Star: LAN SP Andrew Cashner 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
A good outing from Michael Wacha (7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K) was wasted.


July 3, 2021: G081 (44-37, 1st, +2.5G)

Star: STL SS J.P. Crawford 4-4, DBL, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 5 RS (#1 PotD)
Crawford’s 5 runs scored tied the N.L. record and unlocked a silver achievement.
Rosenthal took a no-hitter into the 8th: 7.2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Announcer in the 9th: “The Dodgers will not soon forget this drubbing.”

Rebuilding Tampa Bay traded two starting pitchers for prospects. They still want to trade Max Hicks, but I am no longer in the market for a starting pitcher at his salary.


July 4, 2021: G082 (44-38, 1st, +2.5G)

Star: LAN LF Jason Monda 3-4, DBL, 2 RS


Players of the Week:
AL: NYA LF Lewin Diaz 13-21, 0 HR, 5 RBI (he was 6-10 vs. STL)
NL: ARI 2B Corey Seager 11-23, 3 HR, 5 RBI


BNN Stats – MLB Career HR Leaders:
Barry Bonds 762 (HOF – 2015)
Henry Aaron 755 (HOF – 1982)
Babe Ruth 714 (HOF – 1936)
Albert Pujols 691 (active)
Alex Rodriguez 665 (HOF – 2020)

[AstaSyneri]

I love this dynasty report - it makes my non-Baseballer pea-sized brain grow (i.e. I am learning a lot about WHY you make certain decisions). Thank You (that is you, not You, actually)!

How do you export those box scores? Is there some automated system, or do you just make screen shots and cut them out in Photoshop?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by AstaSyneri

How do you export those box scores? Is there some automated system, or do you just make screen shots and cut them out in Photoshop?

Screenshots --> Photoshop (actually I use an old version of Paint Shop Pro)

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals Internal Analysis – 1st Half 2021

Executive Summary
The team is 25-17 over the past 42 games. However, that includes streaks where we won 9 out of 10 and lost 9 out of 12, so we are inconsistent. We are 2-7 in extra-inning games and 6-16 in one-run games, both signs of weakness. The offense has carried the team recently and we are now 3rd in the league with 399 runs scored, very surprising considering that Crawford and Taveras have each missed over half of the season. The bullpen continues to perform below my expectations (3.50 ERA, 9th in the N.L.). The starting rotation should be strong in the second half of the season, but I must continue to experiment with the bullpen until we find the right combinations.

Pitching Staff
This chart separates starters/swingmen from pure relievers, and includes every pitcher on the 40-man roster with a major league appearance. However, the stats for several of these pitchers include appearances with other teams.



The starting rotation remains a work in progress. Odorizzi has been solid. Walker has a 2.63 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 54 Ks in 7GS/48IP for us. Flores has been erratic, but he just needs to keep the ball down and he will be fine. Rosenthal has been an exceptional bargain at a $3.5M salary. Ray Chambers and Michael Wacha are currently keeping the fourth starter slot warm for top prospect Gerald Thompson (12-2, 3.71 ERA, 2.88 FIP at Memphis). Chambers has minor league options remaining, so he will return next year. Wacha is another story. He is a free agent, and will have to take a pay cut to return unless he has an awesome second half. I will keep him in the rotation for a few weeks and give him a chance to impress me and/or earn a big contract elsewhere.

Rex Brothers has been the only reliable reliever so far. Mark Montgomery has been ok. Darryl Chambers looks promising. Pedro Solis and Dalton Friend have been mediocre. Shelby Miller is suitable for his role. Rodebaugh has five scoreless appearances at AAA since his demotion, and I want to bring him back for another try. Ray Chambers will be optioned back to Memphis for an opportunity to pitch regularly and to make room for Rodebaugh. Miller will handle the long relief work and could make a spot start if needed.

Position Players
I will double all of the WAR values (to approximate a full season) and then assign a grade as follows: A=6+, B=4, C=2, D=1, F=0 or below. I give Taveras, Crawford, and Almora a grade of “incomplete” due to injuries, but attendance does count over time.



Alfaro is the only A-student. He could be a MVP candidate. Sano and Deol get B’s and have been very valuable batting behind Alfaro.

I am going to stretch Wong to a B- and his lame duck status concerns me even though I have replacement candidates in the organization. Wong is a valuable player, but not at Alfaro money. I would like to be in a position to offer him a contract after the season (but before the free agency filing date). If he cannot be signed within my budget parameters, then I would still pursue him in free agency if he hangs around long enough to lower his demands. Otherwise, I will be prepared to go into next season with either Hector Rios or prospect Andre Hicks (OPS .808 at Memphis) as the second baseman.

T-Mick (C+) deserves some leeway because he missed time with injury and is playing out of position. Ryder Jones (C-) is hitting .207 since May 1 (203 at bats). His arbitration estimate has declined to $5.5M, but he is still is too expensive to carry as an average player. I could free up money to sign Wong by trading Jones for a prospect or minimum salary player. T-Mick could move to third base, and Knox or Snyder could play first base for the rest of this season.

The bench is fine until Taveras and Almora come back. Taveras is just a few days away from beginning a rehab assignment. Sharp will be the first to go down, and then it would be You (not you) unless Jones is traded and Knox moves to first.