2003 Rosters: Give Me Some Test Prospects - Page 6

Wheele8 · 01-15-2003, 09:52 AM

Geforce,
I do think these ratings are a little exaggerated. Particularly Heilman, he's a good but not great prospect. The others are more accurate in my opinion, but they could all be less studtastic. Pitching is just so hard to predict that I think all pitching ratings should be a little conservative. I'm not sure how you do that, but the only one I'd say should have Brilliant talent is Williams. Definitely a great starting point though.

GForce22 · 01-15-2003, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Wheele8
Geforce,
I do think these ratings are a little exaggerated. Particularly Heilman, he's a good but not great prospect. The others are more accurate in my opinion, but they could all be less studtastic. Pitching is just so hard to predict that I think all pitching ratings should be a little conservative. I'm not sure how you do that, but the only one I'd say should have Brilliant talent is Williams. Definitely a great starting point though.

Heilman is considered very polished, a solid #2 or #3 guy (much like is said about Ainsworth). Williams should have the best ratings of the bunch for potential, simply because he's farthest ahead of the curve. I know what you mean about the pitching ratings being conservative, I just don't want them to be overly conservative to the point where no top pitchers develop. I mean, in 5 years, SOME guys have to be #1 starters

I think I've made an improvement but I wrote it on paper on the train to work, so I need to implement it into the sheets. It probably won't be perfect, but it's better. Numbers are still probably a bit aggressive but the 4 guys in question line up in the right order I think now. So it's just a matter of altering the weights for different things.

GH

GForce22 · 01-15-2003, 01:24 PM

OK, here is the latest revision:

Code:

Kurt Ainsworth
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	149	26	4	17	76	132	0.271
TAL	G	G	G	G	A	B	
	

Brandon Duckworth
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	154	37	4	26	75	133	0.28
TAL	G	A	G	A	A	B	

Jerome Williams
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	142	26	4	15	67	110	0.258
TAL	B	G	G	G	G	G	

Aaron Heilman
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	151	26	4	15	72	129	0.275
TAL	G	G	G	G	A	B

again, the number figures are current figures, the talents are the letters.

GH

GForce22 · 01-15-2003, 05:18 PM

Here are the latest adjustments, with 2 new prospects added (Rafael Soriano and Colby Lewis). If there are others you want me to run through, you can start offering up names.

A note though on talents. going by the chart that was posted here, it seems OOTP has for pitchers average against, brilliant as less than .225, good as less than .275, average as less than 325, fair as less than 375 and poor as more than 375. You'll notice if you look at the chart that the shaded areas for the respective talents overlap. So I took the midpoint as the break...for example, brilliant and good both go over 8...so I cut Brilliant midway between .213 and .238 at .225.
If this is the case, I think they should be adjusted. 275-325 is below average, not average. if I am reading the ratings wrong, let me know. Fixing those numbers would be very easy. I just need to know if they are being read right. I did the same thing for hitter talents, so if these are off, the talents are off (not the numbers but the letters/grades assigned). Again, if I am off here PLEASE let me know.

That all being said, here are the ratings as they stand right now. I have included the raw numbers for potentials (first line) just to give you a better idea of the differential I see between guys rated "Good" at a given talent.

Code:

Kurt Ainsworth (SF)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	126	22	3	14	50	126	0.228
550	149	26	4	17	59	103	0.271
TAL	G	G	G	G	G	G	

Brandon Duckworth (PHI)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	136	28	4	20	45	140	0.247
550	154	37	4	26	57	133	0.28
TAL	G	A	G	A	G	G	

Jerome Williams (SF)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	120	22	3	13	47	110	0.219
550	142	26	4	15	55	90	0.258
TAL	B	G	G	G	G	A	
	
Aaron Heilman (NYM)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	128	22	3	13	44	113	0.233
550	151	26	4	15	52	93	0.275
TAL	G	G	G	G	G	A	

Rafael Soriano (SEA)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	127	27	3	18	45	112	0.232
550	141	28	3	18	46	100	0.256
TAL	G	G	G	G	G	A	

Colby Lewis (TEX)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	143	25	4	15	39	121	0.260
550	169	30	5	18	46	99	0.307
TAL	G	G	G	G	G	G

For batting average, I would think talents really should be closer to:
<.230 - Brilliant
.230-.250 - Good
.250-.280 - Average
.280-.300 - Fair
>.300 - Poor

I think if, as a major leaguer, you are allowing a .300 average, you are poor. Give up a .300 average regularly and you won't last long. But that's my opinion. Anyway, feedback, as always, is appreciated.

GH

I Am The Game · 01-15-2003, 05:45 PM

I would also like to see what you have for Casey Fossum.

Maybe you can run through the guys like P Delvis Lantigua if you have him, acquired by the Yankees from the White Sox earlier, just curious on what you got for him.

GForce22 · 01-15-2003, 06:25 PM

Fossum is an interesting case. He's shown he is hittable, but he compensates for that by walking virtually nobody. So his average against is nothing great, but all of his other figures are solid.

Code:

Casey Fossum (BOS)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	150	23	4	15	35	132	0.273
550	157	18	4	12	61	155	0.285
TAL	G	G	G	G	B	G

I'll get back to you on Lantigua. I need to find 2001 stats for him to enter in the sheets.

GH

GForce22 · 01-15-2003, 06:57 PM

ok, it took a bit of digging for numbers, but here's Delvis Lantigua.

Code:

Delvis Lantigua (NYY from CHW)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	145	31	4	19	45	91	0.264
550	181	39	5	24	56	68	0.329
TAL	G	A	G	G	G	A

Another example of good ratings in the game actually being average stats in real life. 19 homers in 550 ABs is average, not good by MLB standards. I wonder if this is being tweaked this year.

GH

Help me! · 01-15-2003, 08:07 PM

Not to disturb or rush you, but when do you think you will have the 2003 roster set done?

Wheele8 · 01-15-2003, 08:53 PM

Hey GeForce,
With a couple tweaks I feel like you've nailed it, just like with the hitters. I have absolutely no complaints about the latest ratings, and I'm a rather critical person. I can't wait to see the final product, and if you need help with any data-entry or anything else let me know.

GForce22 · 01-15-2003, 11:13 PM

these rosters are a LONG way away...haven't even started entering guys into spreadsheets yet, let alone enter them in the game. Hopefully sheets will be ready when OOTP5 comes out so data entry can start then.

Wheele8, thanks again for the support. I need to test more guys before I'm happy with them and I need to find out if the talent ranges are getting changed. But I like the first steps with them.

GH

I Am The Game · 01-15-2003, 11:18 PM

Granted it's early but you don't seem to be getting a lot of requests like last time, so I'll throw two more out there.

Seung Song (Montreal) and Justin Wayne (Florida).

Redhead_Alaskan · 01-16-2003, 05:52 AM

If I could see Adam Johnson and Kyle Lohse that would be great.

A quick comment on Jerome Williams. Is he really better than Brandon Duckworth right now. Duckworth already has a couple years in majors and is a pretty solid pitcher. Williams is a little bit away. Looking at his ratings he could be a 2 or 3 pitcher right now. His potential looks good, but, correct if I'm wrong, but shouldn't he not be so far developed/

I Am The Game · 01-16-2003, 06:07 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Redhead_Alaskan
If I could see Adam Johnson and Kyle Lohse that would be great.

A quick comment on Jerome Williams. Is he really better than Brandon Duckworth right now. Duckworth already has a couple years in majors and is a pretty solid pitcher. Williams is a little bit away. Looking at his ratings he could be a 2 or 3 pitcher right now. His potential looks good, but, correct if I'm wrong, but shouldn't he not be so far developed/

While Duckworth was solid in 11 2001 starts (3-2, 3.52 ERA, 57 Hits, 29 Walks, 40 Strikeouts, and 2 HR allowed in 69IP), he took a step back in 29 2002 starts (with 1 relief appearance). He went 8-9 with a 5.41 ERA, 167 Hits, 69BB, 167Ks, and 26 HR allowed in 163IP.

And they are saying Williams could be ready for a 5th starter job in the majors right now, mainly after his strong AFL performance. And while I do agree Williams may be a bit overrated for current numbers, I do happen to think he is more ready than Brandon Duckworth.

GForce22 · 01-16-2003, 11:43 AM

I'll get to the last requests ASAP.

It seems that at this point, I'm rating guys in the right order for the most part best to worst, but need to adjust weights for potentials and currents. I just need to play with those numbers a bit. I have an idea I'll implement, run those guys through again and add the last few requests and see what we get.

What I hope to do this weekend is give these ratings to 10 hitters (from those sheets) and 10 pitchers, put them in OOTP4 and sim 5 seasons to see how they develop. That will be the best test.

GH

cubanb · 01-16-2003, 12:48 PM

dude , Geforce, these stats are interesting to check out. As a giants fan im glad to see you put up Williams and Ainsworth. Both of them have been former #1 Giants prospects. Williams had a little slump after a family death, but he'll be good. If you have some time.... The Guy id really like to see in this thread is Jesse Foppert: The best pitching prospect in baseball as Baseball America is calling him. Got a chance to see him throw a couple games this summer and I can't believe how good he is for the little experience he's had pitching. He only pitched one year in college at University of san francisco after being converted from 1st base. After being drafted in the second round, he played short season and impressed the organization. He started at AA this year and quickly found himself in AAA. He's gonna be something special....

GForce22 · 01-16-2003, 01:25 PM

cubanb,

I read the same thing...Foppert will be in the next batch I post here, probably within an hour or so. I think the sheets look better now...a little adjustment seems to be helping a bit.

GH

GForce22 · 01-16-2003, 04:07 PM

a) sorry about the delay. Got busy at work and I've been playing with the numbers a bit.

b) I got a note back from Markus (he's GREAT about that). For pitcher talents, he said the numbers in the sheet for talent are not right (unless I read it wrong). As per Markus...

Right now it's like this:

avg < .200 = Brilliant
avg < .250 = Good
avg < .300 = Average
avg < .350 = Fair
else Poor

I will make this adjustment to my talent sheets and put up the results. I asked him to take a look at that chart and let me know any other issues. Obviously, it works best if my spreadsheets are perfectly in line with the game.

Pitcher samples coming as soon as this rush at work slows.

GH

GForce22 · 01-16-2003, 04:38 PM

ok, here are a bunch of pitchers named in this thread. These reflect the latest adjustments to my formulas, as well as Markus' clarification on the batting avg ranges for talents. Those designations make only 1 "Brilliant" avg vs rating...by the man Baseball America calls the best minor league pitching prospect out there, Jesse Foppert.

Code:

Kurt Ainsworth (SF)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	127	22	3	14	49	125	0.23
550	152	26	4	17	59	101	0.276
TAL	G	G	G	G	G	G	

Brandon Duckworth (PHI)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	131	27	4	17	55	125	0.239
550	141	36	4	22	69	133	0.256
TAL	G	G	G	G	G	G	

Jerome Williams (SF)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	123	23	3	14	45	108	0.223
550	147	28	4	17	54	87	0.267
TAL	G	G	G	G	G	A	

Aaron Heilman (NYM)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	129	22	3	13	43	112	0.234
550	155	26	4	16	52	90	0.282
TAL	G	G	G	G	G	A	

Rafael Soriano (SEA)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	127	27	3	18	46	113	0.231
550	126	28	3	18	47	100	0.229
TAL	G	G	G	G	G	A	

Colby Lewis (TEX)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	144	25	4	15	39	120	0.262
550	172	30	5	18	47	97	0.313
TAL	A	G	G	G	G	G	

Casey Fossum (BOS)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	147	23	4	15	35	131	0.268
550	144	18	4	12	61	155	0.262
TAL	A	G	G	G	B	G	

Delvis Lantigua (NYY via CHW)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	146	31	4	20	44	90	0.265
550	188	40	5	26	57	65	0.342
TAL	A	A	G	A	G	A	

Seung Song (MON)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	144	23	3	16	33	131	0.261
550	185	30	4	21	42	95	0.336
TAL	A	G	G	G	B	G	

Justin Wayne (FLA)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	145	28	4	15	44	85	0.263
550	187	36	5	19	57	62	0.34
TAL	A	A	G	G	G	A	

Adam Johnson (MIN)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	149	31	4	20	44	116	0.27
550	178	37	5	24	53	94	0.324
TAL	A	A	G	A	G	A	

Kyle Lohse (MIN)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	146	35	5	21	54	105	0.266
550	159	33	5	20	49	95	0.289
TAL	A	A	A	A	G	A	

Jesse Foppert (SF)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	109	24	3	24	40	140	0.199
550	131	29	4	29	48	113	0.238
TAL	B	G	G	A	G	G

These are better, but I still need to make adjustments I think. I have no problem with the occasional outlier (like Ryan Ludwick was with the hitters) but that Fossum will be better than his potential this year confuses me a bit, as does Kyle Lohse being worse than last year (not on the chart, but his avg against was less than .289 last year). I also think Soriano is too good right now. I'm happier about the numbers for Duckworth too. This kid will be a decent pitcher I think.

Anyway, keep the feedback coming.

GH

I Am The Game · 01-16-2003, 05:03 PM

Things look good, I agree with you for the most part. I don't think we see enough "Brilliant" for strikeouts.

Redhead_Alaskan · 01-16-2003, 05:08 PM

I like these much better as well. I would of thought that Lohse would of been a little bit better than that currently and Rafeal Soriano is too good right now, but you are already mentioned that.

01-15-2003, 05:18 PM	#104
GForce22 Banned Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Long Island, NY Posts: 2,654	Here are the latest adjustments, with 2 new prospects added (Rafael Soriano and Colby Lewis). If there are others you want me to run through, you can start offering up names. A note though on talents. going by the chart that was posted here, it seems OOTP has for pitchers average against, brilliant as less than .225, good as less than .275, average as less than 325, fair as less than 375 and poor as more than 375. You'll notice if you look at the chart that the shaded areas for the respective talents overlap. So I took the midpoint as the break...for example, brilliant and good both go over 8...so I cut Brilliant midway between .213 and .238 at .225. If this is the case, I think they should be adjusted. 275-325 is below average, not average. if I am reading the ratings wrong, let me know. Fixing those numbers would be very easy. I just need to know if they are being read right. I did the same thing for hitter talents, so if these are off, the talents are off (not the numbers but the letters/grades assigned). Again, if I am off here PLEASE let me know. That all being said, here are the ratings as they stand right now. I have included the raw numbers for potentials (first line) just to give you a better idea of the differential I see between guys rated "Good" at a given talent. Code: Kurt Ainsworth (SF) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 126 22 3 14 50 126 0.228 550 149 26 4 17 59 103 0.271 TAL G G G G G G Brandon Duckworth (PHI) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 136 28 4 20 45 140 0.247 550 154 37 4 26 57 133 0.28 TAL G A G A G G Jerome Williams (SF) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 120 22 3 13 47 110 0.219 550 142 26 4 15 55 90 0.258 TAL B G G G G A Aaron Heilman (NYM) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 128 22 3 13 44 113 0.233 550 151 26 4 15 52 93 0.275 TAL G G G G G A Rafael Soriano (SEA) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 127 27 3 18 45 112 0.232 550 141 28 3 18 46 100 0.256 TAL G G G G G A Colby Lewis (TEX) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 143 25 4 15 39 121 0.260 550 169 30 5 18 46 99 0.307 TAL G G G G G G For batting average, I would think talents really should be closer to: <.230 - Brilliant .230-.250 - Good .250-.280 - Average .280-.300 - Fair >.300 - Poor I think if, as a major leaguer, you are allowing a .300 average, you are poor. Give up a .300 average regularly and you won't last long. But that's my opinion. Anyway, feedback, as always, is appreciated. GH

01-15-2003, 06:25 PM	#106
GForce22 Banned Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Long Island, NY Posts: 2,654	Fossum is an interesting case. He's shown he is hittable, but he compensates for that by walking virtually nobody. So his average against is nothing great, but all of his other figures are solid. Code: Casey Fossum (BOS) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 150 23 4 15 35 132 0.273 550 157 18 4 12 61 155 0.285 TAL G G G G B G I'll get back to you on Lantigua. I need to find 2001 stats for him to enter in the sheets. GH

01-15-2003, 06:57 PM	#107
GForce22 Banned Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Long Island, NY Posts: 2,654	ok, it took a bit of digging for numbers, but here's Delvis Lantigua. Code: Delvis Lantigua (NYY from CHW) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 145 31 4 19 45 91 0.264 550 181 39 5 24 56 68 0.329 TAL G A G G G A Another example of good ratings in the game actually being average stats in real life. 19 homers in 550 ABs is average, not good by MLB standards. I wonder if this is being tweaked this year. GH

01-16-2003, 05:52 AM	#112
Redhead_Alaskan Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 224	If I could see Adam Johnson and Kyle Lohse that would be great. A quick comment on Jerome Williams. Is he really better than Brandon Duckworth right now. Duckworth already has a couple years in majors and is a pretty solid pitcher. Williams is a little bit away. Looking at his ratings he could be a 2 or 3 pitcher right now. His potential looks good, but, correct if I'm wrong, but shouldn't he not be so far developed/ __________________ "Never conform"-Woody Mesa

01-16-2003, 05:08 PM	#120
Redhead_Alaskan Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 224	I like these much better as well. I would of thought that Lohse would of been a little bit better than that currently and Rafeal Soriano is too good right now, but you are already mentioned that. __________________ "Never conform"-Woody Mesa Last edited by Redhead_Alaskan; 01-16-2003 at 05:22 PM.

01-15-2003, 09:52 AM	#101
Wheele8 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Boston, MA Posts: 149	Geforce, I do think these ratings are a little exaggerated. Particularly Heilman, he's a good but not great prospect. The others are more accurate in my opinion, but they could all be less studtastic. Pitching is just so hard to predict that I think all pitching ratings should be a little conservative. I'm not sure how you do that, but the only one I'd say should have Brilliant talent is Williams. Definitely a great starting point though.

01-15-2003, 05:45 PM	#105
I Am The Game All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Red Sox Nation Posts: 691	I would also like to see what you have for Casey Fossum. Maybe you can run through the guys like P Delvis Lantigua if you have him, acquired by the Yankees from the White Sox earlier, just curious on what you got for him.

01-15-2003, 08:07 PM	#108
Help me! Bat Boy Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 11	Not to disturb or rush you, but when do you think you will have the 2003 roster set done?

01-15-2003, 08:53 PM	#109
Wheele8 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Boston, MA Posts: 149	Hey GeForce, With a couple tweaks I feel like you've nailed it, just like with the hitters. I have absolutely no complaints about the latest ratings, and I'm a rather critical person. I can't wait to see the final product, and if you need help with any data-entry or anything else let me know.

01-15-2003, 11:13 PM	#110
GForce22 Banned Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Long Island, NY Posts: 2,654	these rosters are a LONG way away...haven't even started entering guys into spreadsheets yet, let alone enter them in the game. Hopefully sheets will be ready when OOTP5 comes out so data entry can start then. Wheele8, thanks again for the support. I need to test more guys before I'm happy with them and I need to find out if the talent ranges are getting changed. But I like the first steps with them. GH

01-15-2003, 11:18 PM	#111
I Am The Game All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Red Sox Nation Posts: 691	Granted it's early but you don't seem to be getting a lot of requests like last time, so I'll throw two more out there. Seung Song (Montreal) and Justin Wayne (Florida).

01-16-2003, 11:43 AM	#114
GForce22 Banned Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Long Island, NY Posts: 2,654	I'll get to the last requests ASAP. It seems that at this point, I'm rating guys in the right order for the most part best to worst, but need to adjust weights for potentials and currents. I just need to play with those numbers a bit. I have an idea I'll implement, run those guys through again and add the last few requests and see what we get. What I hope to do this weekend is give these ratings to 10 hitters (from those sheets) and 10 pitchers, put them in OOTP4 and sim 5 seasons to see how they develop. That will be the best test. GH

01-16-2003, 12:48 PM	#115
cubanb Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 47	dude , Geforce, these stats are interesting to check out. As a giants fan im glad to see you put up Williams and Ainsworth. Both of them have been former #1 Giants prospects. Williams had a little slump after a family death, but he'll be good. If you have some time.... The Guy id really like to see in this thread is Jesse Foppert: The best pitching prospect in baseball as Baseball America is calling him. Got a chance to see him throw a couple games this summer and I can't believe how good he is for the little experience he's had pitching. He only pitched one year in college at University of san francisco after being converted from 1st base. After being drafted in the second round, he played short season and impressed the organization. He started at AA this year and quickly found himself in AAA. He's gonna be something special....

01-16-2003, 01:25 PM	#116
GForce22 Banned Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Long Island, NY Posts: 2,654	cubanb, I read the same thing...Foppert will be in the next batch I post here, probably within an hour or so. I think the sheets look better now...a little adjustment seems to be helping a bit. GH

01-16-2003, 04:07 PM	#117
GForce22 Banned Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Long Island, NY Posts: 2,654	a) sorry about the delay. Got busy at work and I've been playing with the numbers a bit. b) I got a note back from Markus (he's GREAT about that). For pitcher talents, he said the numbers in the sheet for talent are not right (unless I read it wrong). As per Markus... Right now it's like this: avg < .200 = Brilliant avg < .250 = Good avg < .300 = Average avg < .350 = Fair else Poor I will make this adjustment to my talent sheets and put up the results. I asked him to take a look at that chart and let me know any other issues. Obviously, it works best if my spreadsheets are perfectly in line with the game. Pitcher samples coming as soon as this rush at work slows. GH

01-16-2003, 05:03 PM	#119
I Am The Game All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Red Sox Nation Posts: 691	Things look good, I agree with you for the most part. I don't think we see enough "Brilliant" for strikeouts.