MLB 2023 Season

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by Gruber_Tagged_Him

I definitely think (in this world of 3 wildcard teams) the wildcard series should start on the Monday instead of Tuesday, and the division series should start Thursday. That gives the two teams with byes more of an advantage, while still giving 3 off days. Puts more onus on getting one of those two byes during the regular season.

From 2013–2019 and 2021, the division winners got either three or four days off. (The AL division winners received three days off in 2014–2017 and 2021 while the NL division winners received four days off. For the other years, 2013 and 2018–2019, the AL division winners received four days off while the NL division winners got three.)

In 2012, the first year of the second wild card qualifier, the division winners got two or three days off. (The division winner that faced the wild card round winner had three days off.)

In 2022 and 2023, the top two division winners in each league all received five days off.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by Gruber_Tagged_Him

I definitely think (in this world of 3 wildcard teams) the wildcard series should start on the Monday instead of Tuesday, and the division series should start Thursday. That gives the two teams with byes more of an advantage, while still giving 3 off days. Puts more onus on getting one of those two byes during the regular season.

All that would do is push off days into later series. The post-season schedule is constructed so that the World Series will start on a specific day of the week while allowing a certain amount of off days between series.

Back in 2007, the start day of the World Series was shifted from Saturday to Wednesday. To accomplish this, additional off days were inserted into the post-season schedule (one was added between game #4 and #5 of the Division Series, one was added between game #4 and #5 of the LCS, and one added between the end of the LCS and the start of the World Series).

No one liked the extra off days, especially the one added to the LCS. The added LCS off day was moved to before the start of that round in 2010. For 2011, MLB changed the end of the regular season to Wednesday so that the added off days in the post-season could be eliminated. This lasted through 2012, which also saw the addition of the second wild card qualifier in each league. For 2013 the regular season ending returned to the traditional Sunday

Originally Posted by Gruber_Tagged_Him

I assume they skip the Monday to avoid losing viewers to Monday Night Football.

Monday was traditionally left open to allow for any tie-breaking playoff games that might have been necessary. (The addition of the third wild card qualifier eliminated tie-breaking playoff games.)

[Cobra Mgr]

Now THAT was a finish!

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

From 2013–2019 and 2021, the division winners got either three or four days off. (The AL division winners received three days off in 2014–2017 and 2021 while the NL division winners received four days off. For the other years, 2013 and 2018–2019, the AL division winners received four days off while the NL division winners got three.)

In 2012, the first year of the second wild card qualifier, the division winners got two or three days off. (The division winner that faced the wild card round winner had three days off.)

In 2022 and 2023, the top two division winners in each league all received five days off.

Factoring in the above into the results:

2012 = BAL vs. NYA (3 days off) | SLN vs. WAS (3 days off)
2013 = TBA vs, BOS (4 days off) | PIT vs. SLN (3 days off)
2014 = KCA vs, ANA (3 days off) | SFN vs. WAS (4 days off)
2015 = HOU vs. KCA (3 days off) | CHN vs. SLN (4 days off)
2016 = TOR vs. TEX (3 days off) | SFN vs. CHN (4 days off)
2017 = NYA vs. CLE (3 days off) | ARI vs. LAN (4 days off)
2018 = NYA vs. BOS (4 days off) | COL vs. MIL (3 days off)
2019 = TBA vs. HOU (4 days off) | WAS vs. LAN (3 days off)
2021 = BOS vs. TBA (3 days off) | LAN vs. SFN (4 days off)

Of the 10 series in which a club had three days off, the rested team won 4 of them. Of the 8 series in which a club had four days off, the rested team won 5 of them. Overall, the rested team won 9 of the 18 series.

2022
CLE vs. NYA (5 days off) | SEA vs. HOU (5 days off)
PHI vs. ATL (5 days off) | SDN vs. LAN (5 days off)

Of the 4 series in which a club had five days off, the rested team won 2 of them.

Adding in the prior results, in total the rested team won 11 of the 22 series.

[rudel.dietrich]

I saw almost every 90s Braves team flash before my eyes last night.

Still a lot of work to do and they could easily lose the series 3-1. But for a moment there, that got really dark

[low]

I would love to see Houston and Atlanta just crap out of the playoffs.

[Westheim]

I hope the Snakes suffocate the Dodgers.

In reality, it will probably be the 'stros against an NL team I despise again, though...

[Le Grande Orange]

101-61 Baltimore falls to 90-72 Texas in three straight games. (The five days off the Orioles got didn't seem to help them.)

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

Adding in the prior results, in total the rested team won 11 of the 22 series.

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

101-61 Baltimore falls to 90-72 Texas in three straight games. (The five days off the Orioles got didn't seem to help them.)

So if I'm understanding your criteria, etc., as of this writing & since 2012, the rested (3-5 days) team has won 11 of 23 series (and this could soon be 11-out-of-24 unless LA wins three straight). Correct?

If so, while we can debate sample size, since the rested team is (typically or always?) the higher seeded team - meaning more wins plus home field advantage - and should therefore be favored to win a series, we could say that there might be something to the extended rest being a disadvantage.

Under the current system, the team that advances from the WC series comes off of a short best-of-three series where Game One is the closest thing short of a must-win, and the next game - or two if needed - becomes do or die for at least one team. That advancing team may or may not be at a disadvantage as far as its pitching rotation & bull pen rest, but it's going to be sharper & more-focused team (than the team with the bye), in most cases.

Then, in a short 3-of-5 series, anything can happen. If both teams are dealing with similar rest/fatigue, the better team should win, and might be able to overcome not playing their best (depending upon the relative difference between the teams). But what we might have seen with the Orioles and might be seeing with the Dodgers is the better team not only not playing their best (possibly partially due to the inactivity), but also having to go up against a team that is sharper due to their WC series participation. Add to that that the Dodgers haven't played a meaningful game in probably over a month; at least the O's had to fight down to the wire for their division title. Granted, throughout history there have been numerous teams who have clinched early and went a month or longer without playing a meaningful game, then had to turn it on in the playoffs. But how many of those also faced the additional disadvantages of an extended layoff, then meeting a team that was in their groove from having played high-pressure & meaningful games continuously?

On one hand, excuses are for losers. OTOH, it's fair to question whether MLB has created a disadvantage for its best regular season teams...

[mytreds]

Originally Posted by thehef

On one hand, excuses are for losers. OTOH, it's fair to question whether MLB has created a disadvantage for its best regular season teams...

The real irony is the postseason was changed partly to avoid two 100+ win teams facing each other right away in the division series like the Giants and Dodgers did in 2021. They went the distance and the Dodgers, exhausted, lost their next series. Both 100+ win teams out before the championship.

[Cobra Mgr]

I've always felt teams who have been in a playoff race weeks before the season ends has had an advantage over teams who coasted into October.

[Westheim]

AL East teams are 0-11 in their last 11 playoff games. At least the waffleheads on FOX said that.

Orioles, who I hitched my wagon to, out.

And with that, no more decent-hour games for me. Yay...

[cephasjames]

Originally Posted by thehef

So if I'm understanding your criteria, etc., as of this writing & since 2012, the rested (3-5 days) team has won 11 of 23 series (and this could soon be 11-out-of-24 unless LA wins three straight). Correct?

If so, while we can debate sample size, since the rested team is (typically or always?) the higher seeded team - meaning more wins plus home field advantage - and should therefore be favored to win a series, we could say that there might be something to the extended rest being a disadvantage.

Under the current system, the team that advances from the WC series comes off of a short best-of-three series where Game One is the closest thing short of a must-win, and the next game - or two if needed - becomes do or die for at least one team. That advancing team may or may not be at a disadvantage as far as its pitching rotation & bull pen rest, but it's going to be sharper & more-focused team (than the team with the bye), in most cases.

Then, in a short 3-of-5 series, anything can happen. If both teams are dealing with similar rest/fatigue, the better team should win, and might be able to overcome not playing their best (depending upon the relative difference between the teams). But what we might have seen with the Orioles and might be seeing with the Dodgers is the better team not only not playing their best (possibly partially due to the inactivity), but also having to go up against a team that is sharper due to their WC series participation. Add to that that the Dodgers haven't played a meaningful game in probably over a month; at least the O's had to fight down to the wire for their division title. Granted, throughout history there have been numerous teams who have clinched early and went a month or longer without playing a meaningful game, then had to turn it on in the playoffs. But how many of those also faced the additional disadvantages of an extended layoff, then meeting a team that was in their groove from having played high-pressure & meaningful games continuously?

On one hand, excuses are for losers. OTOH, it's fair to question whether MLB has created a disadvantage for its best regular season teams...

You basically said this without specifically saying this, but, baseball is a sport of rhythm and routine. Teams that have to wait 3-5 days before playing again are potentially thrown off that rhythm and routine. While teams coming out of the WC series are still in that rhythm and routine.

Makes me wonder how many hot players or teams are able to remain hot after the several days all star break and how many struggle to get back into rhythm. The difference there being that every team and (most) every player's rhythm and routine are disrupted so everyone's basically on equal footing. Versus the playoffs when only some teams' rhythm and routine are disrupted.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by cephasjames

You basically said this without specifically saying this, but, baseball is a sport of rhythm and routine. Teams that have to wait 3-5 days before playing again are potentially thrown off that rhythm and routine. While teams coming out of the WC series are still in that rhythm and routine.

Makes me wonder how many hot players or teams are able to remain hot after the several days all star break and how many struggle to get back into rhythm. The difference there being that every team and (most) every player's rhythm and routine are disrupted so everyone's basically on equal footing. Versus the playoffs when only some teams' rhythm and routine are disrupted.

Yep, rhythm & routine. Teams basically play 12 or 13 games every 14 days. Having 3-5 days off is not something that EVER happens during the regular season except for a) the All-Star Break (which applies to ALL players except the ~7% of players who make the ASG), and b) the extremely rare occurence of multi-day rainouts.

Contrast this with the NFL, where a) each team gets a bye week that is essentially the same duration as the first-round bye, so it's not a foreign concept, b) having a bye week in the NFL is the equivalent of having two days instead of one day off in MLB; IOW, no big deal, and c) while there may still be debate as to whether a bye week is good or bad for an NFL team, there's no question that given the physical nature of football, most of a team's players can benefit from extra rest, whereas in MLB the majority of a team's players are unlikely to need - nor benefit from - extra rest.

And then in the NBA, teams typically have a few regular season "breaks" where they don't have games for four or five days. Still, it's not uncommon for a team with a long playoff break between series' to come out flat in their next game (their first after a layoff)... A memorable example is the 2001 NBA Finals, where the Lakers - having swept the WC Finals - had 9 days with no game as they awaited the winner of the EC FInals. The Sixers went the distance against the Bucks, meaning they only had two off days before the finals, and then - despite being significant underdogs to LA - shocked the Lakers in game one (in LA!). The Lakers, having been jarred from their rust and back into "game mode" then responded to take the next four...

So in a game where the rhythm & routine of playing almost every day for six straight months, there's really no comparison - to the NFL & NBA (& NHL) - of suddenly sitting idle for 3-5 days - a completely foreign schedule compared to the previous six months - while your upcoming opponent is still playing high-pressure, meaningful games.

[David Watts]

One of the guys on the MLB Radio morning show, suggested they eliminate the day off in between the start of the wild card round. Season ends on Sunday and the playoff series begin on Monday. He also suggested day-night doubleheaders be used as well for the wild card round.

[pilight]

Originally Posted by David Watts

One of the guys on the MLB Radio morning show, suggested they eliminate the day off in between the start of the wild card round.

That's not gonna happen. They don't want teams traveling three time zones to the east without a day off in-between, as San Diego and Seattle would have had to do last year.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by pilight

That's not gonna happen. They don't want teams traveling three time zones to the east without a day off in-between, as San Diego and Seattle would have had to do last year.

I wondered about that when I heard him say it.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by David Watts

One of the guys on the MLB Radio morning show, suggested they eliminate the day off in between the start of the wild card round. Season ends on Sunday and the playoff series begin on Monday.

All that would do is reduce the days off for the top two-seeded division winners from five days to four. So not much of a difference.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by thehef

So if I'm understanding your criteria, etc., as of this writing & since 2012, the rested (3-5 days) team has won 11 of 23 series (and this could soon be 11-out-of-24 unless LA wins three straight). Correct?

Baltimore lost while Houston is leading its series; the Dodgers are on the verge of elimination while the Phillies are tied in their series. So it looks likely we may see another split, that is, the rested team will win two of the four series, which would put the overall rate at 50% of the series going to the rested team.

If the days off were a benefit, I would expect more than a coin toss result in favor of the rested teams. But I am not a statistician,

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

Baltimore lost while Houston is leading its series; the Dodgers are on the verge of elimination while the Phillies are tied in their series. So it looks likely we may see another split, that is, the rested team will win two of the four series, which would put the overall rate at 50% of the series going to the rested team.

If the days off were a benefit, I would expect more than a coin toss result in favor of the rested teams. But I am not a statistician,

Right. And it ought to be better than a coin toss not because they are rested, but because they are the better - in some cases, significantly better - team.

At any rate, I was running through some scenarios in my head to fix the issue, and I didn't really come up with anything realistic...

1) Add more teams to the postseason, which would allow any number of days off before, after and during series' as long as they were roughly equal. This increases the likelihood of 78-84 teams in the playoffs. It also then means either a) division-winning, 100+ win teams would play in best-of-three crapshoots, or b) there'd be eight best-of-five series to open the playoffs, which seems excessive (and still offers little reward for winning the division, having the best record in the league).

2) Reduce the number of playoff teams. Not realistic because there's no way MLB will do this. (Has any major sports league reduced the number of playoff teams? If it's happened, I'll bet that it was before the TV era...)

3) Eliminate the day off after the end of the season, as noted above. Not workable due to potential west-to-east travel with no off day, and - with 4 games to be played and Monday Night Football - the need to have at least two of those games in the afternoon. So, for example, Seattle might finish the season at 4 pm Pacific in Anaheim, not go home, board a 7 pm flight to an east coast city that would get them there 5 hours later (so midnight body time; 3 am local/east coast time). And then they'd have a playoff game perhaps 9 hours later. Possible to schedule a Seattle vs Baltimore game for that Monday evening instead of in the early afternoon? Sure. But all parties, from players & coaches to stadium operations to TV would probably want a bit more than 15-24 hours notice to prepare for four games the next day... So this would probably be solving one problem while creating others.

4) Eliminate the day (or two) off after the completion of the WC round. Same issues as #3 above, but possibly a bit more workable if the schedule becomes flexible. For example, it was known that all WC series' could have finished on Oct 4th, and certainly by Oct 5th, and - using Az/Milw vs LA as an example - it's a 4.5 hour flight to LA, gaining 2 hours. So before the WC round even started, MLB could've announced that "if Az or Milw in two games, Game One of the NLDS will begin in LA on Oct 5th, 6 pm. However, if the WC series goes to 3 games, Game One of the NLDS will begin in LA on Oct 6th, 6 pm." As it turned out (with Az winning in two games), that could've shaved two days off the schedule. Sure, it'd need to be on a case-by-case (series by series) basis, and would require some flexibility, but it'd be more logistically workable than #3. (And the concept of "the next series' start date & time being dependent on the completion date of the current series" is not at all foreign to major U.S. sports. I know the NBA and I think also the NHL used to do that a lot; pretty sure they still do to a degree.)

5) Add a day-night doubleheader to the WC round (also noted in a post above). This could shave a day, perhaps two, off the schedule. If also incorporating #4, then it could shave two or three days. But the uncertainty of the schedule - which TV won't like - combined with the quirkiness of actually playing DH's in the playoffs makes this unrealistic, IMO.

6) Give the higher-seeded team in the WC round a 1-0 series advantage before the series starts. This would shave at least one day off the length of the WC series, which - perhaps combined with #4 could make a real difference. Problems: a) I don't see it as realistic that MLB would actually implement such a quirky thing, and b) while it might seem fair in the series that pits a WC vs the #3 seed division winner (the div winner not getting the bye), it doesn't seem like it'd be fair in the other matchup where you'd have two true wild cards with similar - perhaps identical - records.

7) Turn the LDS series' into a round robin, allowing the current bye teams (#'s 1 and 2 seeds) to start playing each other while the WC series' are going on. This would need to result in the 1 and 2 seeds playing games with days off in-between both during the WC series and during the first several days after the two WC winners join the round robin, while the two WC winners start the round robin with maybe 3 straight games so they can catch up. Somewhat workable from a scheduling and fairness perspective, but clearly adding a "round robin" component to the MLB playoffs is not going to happen. And TV is not going to like the possibility of six playoff games (4 WC, 2 RR) on single day.

8) Some combination of something above which shortens one of the WC series (in each league) but not the other, perhaps to give the #3 seed division winner a WC series advantage, and then gives the #1 seed the option of picking its schedule between the LDS that starts sooner (less rest/rust) or the one that starts a day or two later (more rest/rust). Depending upon the other component implemented to shorten one of the series', this could be workable because the choice component used to be in play in MLB (LGO will know when & the other details, and will surely post them here ).

Anyone got anything else?

#'s 1 thru 5 (and maybe #8) are possible in OOTP; not sure about 6 & 7. My OOTP games are historical and rarely progress after the 80's so my craziest scenarios are historical: When the postseason goes from two teams to four in 1969, and the LDS' change from best-of-5 to best-of-seven in 1985. The way it should be!