Orcin's Brave New World

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals (15-12) @ Toronto Blue Jays (9-20)
The Toronto Blue Jays won the World Series last year, but they had a bad off-season, losing two big free agents. Compounding their problems, their best position player, RF Dennis Donovan, has missed six weeks with a herniated disc. He is back now, but they still have 5 players on the D/L. It could be a long year for the fans in Rogers Centre, which seats 49,539 fans and favors hitters. The Blue Jays are led by 2020 Manager of the Year Chili Davis.

Shortstop J.P. Crawford will rejoin the Cardinals for this series, and our starting lineup will be on the field together for the first time this season. SS Cris Navarro will be waived and designated for assignment to make room for Crawford. I hate to do this but Navarro hasn’t hit at all and I want to keep Rios on the active roster. We have four left-handed hitters on our bench now, and the roster spot taken by 1B Matt Snyder would be better utilized by a right-handed bat. Sadly, no one offers a one-for-one trade for Snyder.


May 7, 2021: G028 (16-12, 1st, +1.5G)

Star: STL CF Albert Almora 1-1, HR, RBI, 2 BB, SAC, SB, 2 RS
Perdomo 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K (struggled with his control, lots of long outs)

Albert Almora has done everything that we asked of him and more. He fits the plan perfectly, and his intangibles have been an added benefit. His arbitration estimate has begun to creep up, so I offered him a two-year contract extension worth $5 million today. I think he will sign it soon.


May 8, 2021: G029 (16-13, 1st, +1.5G)

Star: TOR SP Michael Foltynewicz 6.1 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
Kyle Hald 7 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 HR, 4 BB, 5 K, 114 pitches
Alex Reyes was lit up in the 8th for 3 ER (Hald walked the leadoff man who scored)

Jose Flores will make his 7th start in Memphis tomorrow. If all goes well, his 8th start will be in St. Louis next week. I have waited long enough to get this rotation in shape.


May 9, 2021: G030 (16-14, 1st, +0.5G)

Star: TOR LF Shin-Soo Choo 2-3, HR, 4 RBI
Rosenthal finally had a rough outing: 3.1 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Pittsburgh claimed SS Cris Navarro off waivers (bah).
Jose Flores 7th start in Memphis: 8 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 10 K (it’s time)
Tampa CF Jackie Bradley Jr. is out six weeks with a strained PCL. His injury rating is now “wrecked”.


Players of the Week:
AL: TOR 1B Ben Carhart 12-30, 4 HR, 8 RBI
NL: PIT 2B Gian-Andrea Massari 14-27, 0 HR, 3 RBI


Trade Discussions
I have a trade offer pending with Texas for SP Kyle Hald. I would get their #3 prospect, a 20-year-old left-handed starting pitcher currently in high-A. He was the 18th overall pick in the 2019 draft. This will help rebuild the farm system if they accept.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals (16-14) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (18-14)
You have already met the Dodgers formidable pitching staff. Did you know they also lead the N.L. in runs scored? Bill Richmond (23-year-old 2B, bats L) leads the team in batting at .331 and stolen bases with 9. Slugging 1B Ron Thompson is second in the N.L. with 29 RBI to go with 6 HR and a .307 batting average. DH Matt Kemp is hitting .326, star CF Joc Pederson is at .314 with 20 RBI, LF Theo Alexander has 19 RBI, yada yada yada. We will see most of their scary pitchers in this four-game series played at Dodger Stadium, which seats 56,000 and plays as a slight pitcher’s park. The Dodgers are managed by former Mariners skipper Aaron Holbert, in his first season with L.A.

Michael Wacha will start game 3 on Wednesday. Perdomo will pitch out of the bullpen in this series. The Cardinals pitcher for game 4 on Thursday is listed as “undecided”.


May 10, 2021: G031 (16-15, - GB, t-1st)

Star: LA C Jack Murphy 3-3, HR, 2 RBI (GWRBI)
Odorizzi did not have his best stuff but battled into the eighth.
Texas refused my offer of Hald for their #3 prospect, so it’s back to the drawing board.


May 11, 2021: G032 (17-15, 1st, +1G)

Star: STL 1B Trey Michalczewski 2-5, HR, 3 RBI, 2 RS
L.A. CF Joc Pederson was injured on a defensive play (oblique strain, 2 weeks).


Cardinals-Athletics Exchange Six Players
This trade doesn’t include any stars and doesn’t solve the #2 starter problem, but I get back a prospect and two useful pitchers for three players that I did not want. I also made room for stud prospect SP Jose Flores, who was promoted from AAA to replace Hald in the rotation.



Chambers has an affordable $1.6M arbitration estimate for next season. He has three options remaining and provides good insurance for next year’s rotation. Rodebaugh is a quality bullpen arm at minimum salary with two minor league options. I could have optioned Hald to AAA instead of trading him, but I would have released him at the end of the season anyway. I would much rather have Chambers and an extra $3M in profit.


May 12, 2021: G033 (17-16, - GB, t-1st)

Star: LA SP Clayton Kershaw 7.1 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
Wacha 5.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 HR, 4 BB, 6 K

Matt Snyder and Shelby Miller have both asked for a trade because they are not happy with their role on the team. I would love to oblige them, but neither player has any value.

Perdomo will pitch the final game of the Dodgers series. Flores will pitch the first game of the Milwaukee series starting on Friday because he is not fully rested. I will push the rotation back one day, so Rosenthal and Odorizzi will pitch the other two games.


May 13, 2021: G034 (17-17, - GB, t-1st)

Star: LA SP Jose Fernandez 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K
Perdomo 8 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K (run scored on two singles and a sac fly)
2B/SS Hector Rios was injured while throwing the ball. The diagnosis is pending.

I am really kicking myself now for putting Cris Navarro through waivers when Crawford came off the D/L. He was up for a big arbitration award next year, and I didn’t want to pay that much to a utility infielder. I shopped Navarro right before the move, and there were no offers. That usually indicates no interest, but not this time. I could really use him now, whether he hits or not. T-Mick will be my utility infielder until Rios is able to play again, and Snyder would play first if T-Mick is needed elsewhere. However, I don’t look forward to watching T-Mick (or Wong) play shortstop.

By the way, I kick myself a lot. My previous dynasty “bullet” format really did not allow for this much self-doubt on a day-to-day basis. One thing that I wanted to do this time was to put more of my failures, bad decisions, and course changes into the narrative.


Trade Discussions
Tampa Bay remains interested in trading SP Max Hicks for SP Michael Pineda, SP Luis Perdomo, and LF Dutch Deol. Pineda and Perdomo are expendable, since I now have recently-acquired SP Ray Chambers to compete for a rotation spot with Rosenthal and Wacha. I also have top prospect Gerald Thompson waiting in the wings. The holdup is trading Deol. I love his defense, on-base percentage and clutch hitting. I just can’t bring myself to let him go, despite the warts and his high arbitration estimate. Right-handed hitters with decent OPS and defensive skills are really hard to find in this league.

I am convinced that Pineda is not as good as his record because of his .256 BABIP and K/BB ratio of 5 vs. a 3.5 career mark. This could be my best opportunity to sell high and save Pineda’s $6.7 million salary for next season. I don’t want to wait too long in case he slumps or gets hurt. I think having a second ace in the rotation would take some of the pressure off Flores and (later) Thompson.

I still have my eye on Taijuan Walker in Seattle. I can’t afford him and Hicks. I think Walker is a better fit IF his salary demands are more like a true #2.

[Winnipeg59]

Originally Posted by Orcin

By the way, I kick myself a lot. My previous dynasty “bullet” format really did not allow for this much self-doubt on a day-to-day basis. One thing that I wanted to do this time was to put more of my failures, bad decisions, and course changes into the narrative.

And thank you for this.
Lovin' this new dynasty!

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

By the way, I kick myself a lot. My previous dynasty “bullet” format really did not allow for this much self-doubt on a day-to-day basis. One thing that I wanted to do this time was to put more of my failures, bad decisions, and course changes into the narrative.

You see now why the complaints section usually makes up about 25% of my updates?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Westheim

You see now why the complaints section usually makes up about 25% of my updates?

Yes, I do. You may notice that I borrowed some ideas from you. This is one of them. I love that part of your dynasty. In fact, I usually read it first, and then go back to check the results.

[Orcin]

Milwaukee Brewers (14-21) @ St. Louis Cardinals (17-17)
The Brewers have not enjoyed a winning season since 2015. They are near the bottom of the league in both runs scored and allowed again this season. The rebuilding effort is in full swing, and they have the #6 minor league system. They will need it because they also have the #28 budget. The Brewers are managed by Rich Renteria, who took over the top job this season after five seasons as Milwaukee’s bench coach.


May 14, 2021: G035 (18-17, 1st, +1G)

Star: STL SP Jose Flores 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 106 pitches

Flores looked very good in his first start. He didn’t get much run support, so every inning was pressure-packed. The eight strikeouts highlight his “swing-and-miss’ stuff. He was lifted before he was tired for two reasons. I wanted him to leave with a positive outing and I wanted to get my setup men some work in a tight game.

Crawford reached base twice in the game and was caught stealing by a mediocre catcher both times. That cost us two runs based on what came after. Crawford is only hitting .233 since his return, and that’s one reason the offense is sputtering lately.

Designated hitter Tarou Sano is hitting .212 with 2 HR in May, after hitting .276 with 7 HR in April. It could be that the league is catching up to him, or maybe he is just in a little slump. Fortunately, Alfaro is going the other way, hitting .316 in May as opposed to .243 in April. Reigning MVP Oscar Taveras just keeps hitting no matter what month it is.


May 15, 2021: G036 (18-18, - GB, t-1st)

Star: STL C Jorge Alfaro 3-5, DBL, HR, 4 RBI, 2 RS
Rosenthal (4.1 IP, 6 ER) was terrible. Shelby Miller pitched well in relief (3.2 IP, 0 ER).
Rex Brothers blew the save after Snyder had given us a lead going into the ninth.

SS J.P Crawford was injured while running the bases. The diagnosis is pending. Kolten Wong played shortstop for the remainder of the game with T-Mick at second. The winning run scored on an error by Wong (clean play would have ended the inning).

After the game, we also learned that Hector Rios has a mild abdominal strain and will be day-to-day for a week. I can survive that, but it points out the lack of middle infield depth on this thin 40-man roster. Memphis 2B Andre Hicks is the best utility infielder in the organization. Hicks’ bat has not developed as I had hoped so far this season, but no one questions his fielding and he plays all three infield spots. I will add Hicks to the secondary roster and call him up if necessary, but I prefer to extend his arbitration clock.

I will check the free agent market again, and this time I will look at players that want a major league contract. The need is critical if Crawford is out for any length of time.


May 16, 2021: G037 (19-18, - GB, t-1st)

Star: MIL 2B Nick Delmonico 3-4, TPL, HR, 2 RBI, 2 RS
Odorizzi (8.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 11 K) gave up a couple of wind-blown home runs.
The bullpen was collectively tired and we needed the long outing by Odorizzi.


Standings at mid-May



Players of the Week:
AL: TOR RF Dennis Donovan 9-19, 3 HR, 8 RBI
NL: NYN SP Juan Montoya 2-0, 0.00 ERA, 18 IP, 15 K, 2 shutouts!

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals (19-18) @ Cincinnati Reds (17-20)
The Reds have been irrelevant since 2017, and they have made the playoffs only four times in the past 30 years. They have modest “.500 ball” expectations this season. Aging stars Joey Votto, Mat Latos, and Jay Bruce dominate their payroll, but not their leaderboards. The Reds play at Great American Ballpark, which seats 42,059 and favors hitters. The Reds are managed by Demarlo Hale, in his third season at the helm.

Pineda and Perdomo will each take another turn in the rotation during this series. I need to make up my mind about trading for a top-shelf starting pitcher.


May 17, 2021: G038 (19-19, 0.5 GB, 2nd)

Star: CIN DH Beau Kline 3-5, DBL, HR, 3 RBI
It was not a good day for Pineda: 5 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 4 HR, 3 BB, 3 K

Reliever Alex Reyes became the ninth player to be placed on waivers and designated for assignment this season. The converted starter just doesn’t have the stuff to be a short reliever and I have two long men already. My bullpen is #9 in the league (with a 3.56 ERA) and it needs to improve. I called up veteran reliever Ryan Rodebaugh, recently acquired from Kansas City in the Kyle Hald trade, to share seventh inning duties with lefty Dalton Friend.


May 18, 2021: G039 (19-20, 1.5 GB, 2nd)

Star: CIN SP Mat Latos 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
Our offense made this washed-up pitcher look like Walter Johnson.

Seattle SP Taijuan Walker turned in a gem vs. Oakland today: 9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K.

On Wednesday morning, we learned that SS J.P. Crawford has been diagnosed with chronic back soreness and will be out for a month. Our infield defense is killing us right now between errors and a general lack of range with Wong at SS and T-Mick at 2B. Rios will return in a couple of days to play shortstop, but I need a utility infielder again. (Why did I waive Navarro?) Crawford was placed on the 15-day D/L and Gilbert Griffin was called up from Memphis simply because he is already on the 40-man roster. I am working on a more permanent solution.


May 19, 2021: G040 (19-21, 2.5 GB, 3rd)

Star: CIN SP Daniel Corcino 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
The sweep drops us into third place behind the Reds.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals Internal Analysis – 1st Quarter 2021

Executive Summary
The team is trending in the wrong direction lately (8-10 in May, 3-7 in last 10 games). We have played 29 games on the road (11-17) where we did poorly. We are at 8-4 at home. The schedule flips in the last quarter of the season, but we must stay in the race if that late advantage is to be important. We are 2-5 against left-handed pitching, so that historical problem is still with us. We are 1-5 in extra-inning games and 5-9 in one-run games, due to poor bullpen performance (3.55 ERA, 10th in the N.L.). The rotation is also weak (9th in the N.L.). The offense is mediocre (8th in runs scored) with a very low walk total (13th in the N.L.). Power (4th in HR, slugging, and extra-base hits) and defense (6th) are the only bright spots. There is much work to do.

Pitching Staff
This chart separates the starters and relievers. Please keep in mind that the stats for Ray Chambers and Ryan Rodebaugh come from their time in Kansas City. It is pretty obvious that both of them should be tried in more prominent roles on our team.



Pineda makes a great case for looking beyond the traditional W-L totals, and even past the good WHIP number. His WHIP is good because of our strong outfield defense. He is giving up way too many long fly balls, 11 of which have left the park. His BABIP is bound to increase and his walks are likely to go up also. When those things inevitably happen, he will be giving up 2 and 3-run homers instead of solo shots and the W-L will reverse. He is definitely the weak link, and should be replaced by Ray Chambers right now. I want to dump Pineda’s 2022 salary commitment as soon as possible, while he still has good value (i.e. before his fortunes reverse).

I already moved Reyes out and brought up Rodebaugh. I have used Solis too often, and Rodebaugh will get some of those innings. Miller is doing well as the mop-up/long man but he is way too expensive for that role next year.

Position Players
The average player is about 2 WAR, so we are looking to draw a line at 0.5 WAR after 25% of the season. Anyone with a positive WAR has value over a replacement player, but I am really looking to have average players (or better) at every position in order to be a contender. A value greater than 1.5 (x4=6 for a season) is a great year, and we have one of those in MVP Oscar Taveras. However, catcher Jorge Alfaro (recovering nicely from a slow start) and CF Albert Almora are pretty close and well above average.



Almora is proving to be my best move of the off-season so far. He was a top prospect as a teenager, and the Cubs were just not able to develop him. I think he is a classic victim of unrealistic expectations. They wanted Willie Mays and got Willy Taveras. Almora is a valuable player even as a .250 hitter because of all the other things that he can do, and I am hopeful that he will blossom into Willie Wilson.

One of the major problems with the offense is leadoff man and shortstop J.P. Crawford, who has only played in 9 of our first 40 games. He will make that 9 of 70 before he gets back. His replacement, Hector Rios, has done an adequate job but I am still looking to add another pure shortstop. I may have to think about replacing Crawford eventually. I am not sure that I want to commit $100M to a player that misses this much work.

I went into this analysis thinking that I needed to get Matt Snyder into the lineup in place of Deol or T-Mick. Obviously, that was based on observation and not fact. The facts say that Snyder is no better than any of my AAA players (like Matt Adams) for his $7 million salary, and probably needs to be moved off the roster rather than into the lineup. The facts also say that T-Mick and Rios (or Deol vs. lefties) should be hitting near the top of the order in the absence of Crawford, because they have the best on-base percentages. Every time that I look at Deol, I come away more impressed. Maybe he IS worth $6M.

Tarou Sano is performing at an average player level with some power, which is pretty good for a rookie. Sano has struggled against lefties, but I intend to keep running him out there until I get a large sample. Ryder Jones started very strong, but he has really tailed off in May. Fourth outfielder Vance Knox has been a small disappointment but he has not received consistent playing time. Backup catcher Steve Bean has been great in his role, and I need to hang on to him if possible.

Looking ahead to next year, I am searching for a compelling reason to pay Kolten Wong $10M+ to play second base, when Hector Rios or prospect Andre Hicks are available for $500K. I still need a bigger sample size to make that call, so Wong will not receive a contract offer before the end of the season.

Likewise, I am having second thoughts about offering a big contract to Michalczewski. I need a better slugging percentage from my corner infielders or DH, and I need better defense from my middle infielders. He doesn’t fit well anywhere for $9M per year. Still, he is a good guy in the locker room and the fans love him. I may be picking between T-Mick and Jones for third base, and looking for a slugging first baseman (preferably a right-handed hitter) in the off-season.

In the short term, I want to move Pineda in return for a #2 pitcher, either Taijuan Walker or Max Hicks. I would love to move Snyder in the deal. I don’t mind giving up a starting pitcher that is not signed for next year (Perdomo, Wacha) or even a player like Wong or Jones that may not be here long term. I won’t give up any of my prospects or Flores.

[Orcin]

New York Mets (26-15) @ St. Louis Cardinals (19-21)
The Mets are leading the N.L. East behind great starting pitching, led by 37-year-old Tim Lincecum (6-1, 1.94). It’s a four-game series and we will face Lincecum along with Juan Montoya, who is coming off two straight shutouts. We lost 2 out 3 against the Mets in New York in April.


May 20, 2021: G041 (20-21, 1.5 GB, 3rd)

Star: STL SP Michael Wacha 7.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Almora and T-Mick each had 3 hits for the Cardinals.

I guess all it takes for us to break out with a big game is for me to write a critical article and threaten to trade a few guys. I should have done that weeks ago.


May 21, 2021: G042 (21-21, 0.5 GB, 2nd)

Star: STL SP Jake Odorizzi 7.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (#2 performance of the day)
Reliever Alex Reyes cleared waivers and was assigned to Memphis (AAA).


May 22, 2021: G043 (21-22, 0.5 GB, 3rd)

Star: NYN 2B Brett Lowe 1-4, HR, 3 RBI
Pineda loaded the bases with two out in the 7th on two singles and a walk.
Dalton Friend failed to retire two LH batters, allowing a 3-run DBL by C Rowan Wick.
Ryan Rodebaugh relieved Friend and gave up a 2-run HR by RH batter Brett Lowe.


Taveras Hurt
Adding injury to insult, Oscar Taveras hobbled off the field after a defensive play in the fatal 7th inning. The diagnosis is pending. However, there was a little good news in an otherwise bad day… All-Star 2B Bill Richmond of the Los Angeles Dodgers will likely miss the rest of the season with a broken kneecap.


Cardinals Sign Free Agent SS Adames
We replaced injured shortstop J.P. Crawford by signing 29-year-old Cristhian Adames to a 1-year contract for $1M. The deal includes a team option for next year at $1M with no buyout. Adames, a switch-hitter, played for Milwaukee and Pittsburgh last season, batting .282 in 106 games. He is an outstanding defensive shortstop and also plays 1B, which might come in handy later if Snyder is traded. SS Gilbert Griffin was optioned to AAA to make room for Adames on the active roster.


May 23, 2021: G044 (22-22, 0.5 GB, 2nd)

Star: STL 1B Trey Michalczewski 2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB, 2 RS
Perdomo 8 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

It was encouraging to take 3 out 4 from the N.L. East division leader. The Reds have stayed hot (8-2 over last 10 games) since they swept us and are currently in first place in the N.L. Central. The Cubs have lost four straight to drop into third.


The bad news: After the game, we learned that reigning MVP Oscar Taveras has an oblique strain and will be out 6-7 weeks. He was placed on the 15-day disabled list. LF Dutch Deol will take over right field duties. LF Victor Sharp was called up from Memphis where he was hitting .388 with 7 HR and 22 RBI in 34 games. Sharp will play left field. The new lineup will oddly have the three outfielders batting 7-9. T-Mick will take over batting third and Wong will move up to second with Adames leading off.

We will miss Taveras no matter what we do. His diagnosis settles my decision on Dutch Deol. We are not trading an outfielder.


Players of the Week:
AL: NYA RF Justin Williams 8-20, 4 HR, 10 RBI
NL: COL 1B Prince Fielder 12-22, 4 HR, 8 RBI

[Orcin]

Miami Marlins (23-19) @ St. Louis Cardinals (22-22)
The surprising Marlins are running second in the N.L. East after finishing 70-92 last season. They must be doing it with mirrors because they are near the bottom of the league in offense and pitching. Their star player is 31-year-old RF Giancarlo Stanton, who misses a lot of time with injuries. They are 6-2 in one-run games, but their bullpen is mediocre so it might just be luck. Or… is it the new skipper?!? Miami is managed by former Cardinals pitching coach Derek Lilliquist, in his first season at the helm.


May 24, 2021: G045 (23-22, 1st, +0.5G)

Star: STL SP Jose Flores 9 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K (game score of 86)
Flores was tiring in the 9th but, with a 5-run lead, we let him get his first career shutout.
Matt Snyder’s bases-loaded double in the 4th provided the winning runs.
MIA RF Giancarlo Stanton was injured on a defensive play in the 1st (out 2 weeks).


Cardinals and Mariners Swap Hurlers in Major Trade
As you know, this trade has been in the works for weeks. Seattle insisted on Dutch Deol and we stubbornly refused to part with him. Finally, Seattle accepted pitcher Alex Reyes instead (after “thinking about it” for 2 days). All three pitchers acquired by Seattle will be in their rotation. We will recall Ray Chambers, recently acquired in a trade from Kansas City, to fill out our starting rotation. Fan reaction in St. Louis was mixed, with excitement over Walker tempered by the loss of Luis Perdomo, who had pitched well recently.



The first thing that I did after the trade was to check on the contract demands of Taijuan Walker (with my fingers crossed). He seems anxious to get a long-term deal done and avoid the uncertainty of free agency. His desire to play for a winner is very high and his greed factor is normal, both of which play in our favor. I submitted a decent opening offer, leaving room to negotiate. I intend to get him signed as soon as possible so I can cheer for him to do well instead of worry that good performance drives his price up.


May 25, 2021: G046 (24-22, 1st, +1.5G)

Star: STL 2B Kolten Wong 2-5, TPL, 2 RBI
Michael Wacha’s line: 7.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 4 K (one batter too many – my fault)


May 26, 2021: G047 (25-22, 1st, +1.5G)

Star: STL SP Jake Odorizzi 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K (#1 Performance of the Day)
The lone run came on a solo HR by Victor Sharp.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals (25-22) @ Washington Nationals (21-27)
The Nationals were a .500 team last season, and have slid into last place with a 21-27 mark in the early going this year. However, there is good news on the horizon for the Nationals, with the #1-rated farm system in MLB. Their star player is 33-year-old 1B Chris Parmelee, 2016 MVP and a 4-time all-star. We will face their ace pitcher, lefty Matt Moore (5-2, 4.26) in game one of the series. Nationals Park seats 41,888 and plays as a neutral park. Washington is managed by Drew Saylor, in his second year.


May 27, 2021: OFF
The off-day gives our pitchers and extra day of rest, which means we can re-order the rotation to: Odorizzi, Walker, Flores, Chambers, and Wacha.


May 28, 2021: G048 (26-22, 1st, +1.5G)

Star: STL SP Taijuan Walker 8 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
T-Mick’s grand slam in the 8th gave Walker the win in his first Cardinals start.


May 29, 2021: G049 (27-22, 1st, +2G)

Star: STL SP Jose Flores 7.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

The rotation looks a LOT better all of a sudden. Now my problem is keeping the bullpen sharp. Well, that’s what fourth and fifth starters are for. Ray Chambers will get his first start tomorrow. He is a hometown boy, having starred at St. Louis University before being drafted in the third round by Kansas City in 2014.


May 30, 2021: G050 (28-22, 1st, +3G)

Star: STL SP Ray Chambers 7.1 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Jorge Alfaro continued his hot streak with 2 hits including a 2-run homer.


Players of the Week:
AL: CLE LF Jose Padilla 12-21, 1 HR, 5 RBI
NL: ATL SS Andrelton Simmons 14-31, 2 HR, 7 RBI


We have completed 50 games, it is the end of May, and we are on a roll. So, it’s a great time to show some standings, stats, etc.

[Orcin]

Standings



The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Cardinals are the hottest teams in baseball. On the other side of the ledger, the Athletics, Rangers, Cubs, and Marlins are in a tailspin.


Power Rankings
Here are the current team power rankings:

Teams (Total Points, Tendency):
1) New York Yankees (147.0, +)
2) Los Angeles Dodgers (131.0, -)
3) Boston Red Sox (128.0, +)
4) San Diego Padres (124.5, o)
5) St. Louis Cardinals (115.8, ++)
6) Minnesota Twins (112.9, --)
7) New York Mets (104.9, -)
8) Chicago White Sox (103.8, +)
9) Philadelphia Phillies (101.8, ++)
10) Houston Astros (101.2, -)


Leaderboard



Pittsburgh 2B Gian-Andrea Massari was signed by the Pirates in 2015 as an amateur international free agent from Venezuela. He was 16 years old at the time. Now age 22, Massari has developed into one of the premier young players in baseball. He has nearly three years of major league service time, and is projected to earn $6M in arbitration after this season.

Just for fun, I called the Pirates about a trade for Massari. The Pirates have a weakness in their rotation, so I offered my two most valuable properties, Jake Odorizzi and Jose Flores, plus $9 million in cash, and then asked what else it would take to make this work now. They simply said, “You have no player who makes this deal work.”


Cardinals Dashboard



The offense is better than average overall, and run prevention is near the top of the league. We believe that the recent improvements in the starting rotation will help the bullpen ERA because there will be fewer innings for the weaker relievers. The offense will be much better when the two stars on the D/L move back into the lineup. Sharp and Adames have really struggled so far, but we have to be patient and give them time to settle in.

By the way, the player payroll is now right at the goal of $140M after the recent trade of three pitchers for Taijuan Walker. Our owner is “happy” and so are the fans (interest of 100). We have $33M available for extensions per the owner, but my calculations allow for $22M after accounting for arbitration estimates. That’s still plenty of money to sign Walker and some depth if I don’t bring back Wong. The extension priority after Walker will be catcher Jorge Alfaro. I haven’t decided on J.P. Crawford yet, even though the team is much better with him in the lineup, because of durability concerns. Crawford is our most popular player, so fan interest will take a hit if he walks two years from now.


Cardinals Farm Report
Here are some notes on a few of our better prospects.

Gerald Thompson (#1) is 8-2 with a 4.17 ERA in 11 starts at Memphis. He is averaging seven innings per outing. His BABIP is extremely high at .359, so we think he has room to improve with the Cardinals defense behind him, and his 2.91 FIP supports that view. His K/9 is 6.38 and his K/BB is 3.50. Those are good numbers but we would like to see a few more strikeouts.

Javier Perez (#3) was just promoted to the Memphis rotation after going 4-3 with a 3.58 ERA at Springfield in the Texas League (AA). The primary concern with Perez is his stamina. He averaged six innings and 89 pitches per start in AA.

Andre Hicks’ (#5) OPS is .750, which is about average for the Pacific Coast League. However, he is at .827 batting left-handed. He has been outstanding at second base.

Josh Williams (#7) will be converted to a first baseman. He is a decent third baseman, but we have Ryder Jones there. Williams has the offensive potential to be an asset at first base, and should be able to handle the position defensively. He is struggling a little in his first season at AAA, and will likely need another year there anyway. He has plenty of time to learn to play first base if we start now.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals (28-22) @ Philadelphia Phillies (28-23)
The Phillies finally put together a winning season (83-79) in 2020 after three years with nearly 100 losses. The team continues on the upswing, currently in second place in the N.L. East. The big stars for Philadelphia, 3-time MVP Bryce Harper (.339-9-34) and SP Neftali Felix (2-3, 3.75), are having good years so far. We took 2 out of 3 in St. Louis earlier this season. This time, we will meet in Citizen’s Bank Park, which seats 43,647 and plays as a neutral park.


May 31, 2021: G051 (28-23, 1st, +2G)

Star: PHI RF Bryce Harper 2-4, HR, 2 RBI
Ramirez ended our 7-game winning streak with a walk-off homer off Montgomery.


Players of the Month for May:
MIN LF Jerry Ball (.354-6-18)
COL 1B Prince Fielder (.305-9-21)

Pitchers of the Month for May:
CHI SP Ray Klinker (4-1, 0.98)
SD CL Stan Gray (3-0, 0.59, 9 SV)

Other May Highlights:
Springfield SP Dewen Perez was Texas League (AA) Pitcher of the Month (5-0, 1.44).


Contract Negotiations
Taijuan Walker wants more money than my original offer of $60M over five years. He is asking for $102M over 7 years. Let’s meet in the middle, shall we? No, he doesn’t like 6 years at $80M. The real sticking point appears to be my $12M salary offer for next year. He wants more money next year and fewer years. I submitted $14M per year for 4 years ($56M total, all guaranteed, no player option) and he agreed to think about it.


June 1, 2021: G052 (28-24, 1st, +2G)

Star: PHI SP Ryan Gibson 6.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K (injured in the 7th)
It was no day at the beach for St. Louis. Everything they hit fell between two fielders.


June 2, 2021: G053 (28-25, 1st, +2G)

Star: PHI SP Drew Pomerantz 8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Walker gave up 3 HR in his six innings of work.


June 3, 2021: G054 (28-26, 1st, +2G)

Star: PHI LF Chris Peters 4-5, DBL, HR, 4 RBI, SB, 3 RS

We came in very confident after a 7-game winning streak, and were promptly swept in a 4-game series. Fortunately, the Reds lost three straight, so we are still in first place. The Phillies have won 9 of their last 10, and now lead the N.L. East.


Gibson Set to Miss 11-12 Months
Philadelphia SP Ryan Gibson (5-3, 2.72), injured in Tuesday’s game, was diagnosed with a torn UCL and he is done for the season. The 23-year-old budding star will have Tommy John surgery, and is expected to be out until next May.


Recovery Setback for Cardinals’ Crawford
St. Louis shortstop J.P. Crawford reportedly suffered a setback this week while rehabilitating chronic back soreness. Preliminary tests showed the injury has gotten worse and would need more time to be completely healed. An unidentified team official said it looked like it would be at least 2-3 weeks before Crawford would be able to return to the active roster. Crawford will see a specialist tomorrow.


Sharp Optioned to AAA
Cardinals LF Victor Sharp was optioned to Memphis after Thursday’s game. Sharp was hitting .097 with only 3 hits in 31 at bats and appeared overmatched at the major league level, after hitting .286 in a brief call-up late last season. Left-fielder Min-Zhong You was added to the secondary roster and his contract was purchased from Memphis to replace Sharp. You (not you) will be primarily used off the bench according to GM Otto Orcin, who also said that Vance Knox will play regularly until Oscar Taveras returns from the disabled list. (Note: The Post-Dispatch online article was entitled, “You Is Back!”)

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals (28-26) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (25-29)
The Pirates are scoring runs (5th in the N.L.), but the starting rotation has been poor (5.06 starter’s ERA ranks dead last). Their bullpen ranks #1 with a 2.65 ERA; however, closer Nate Jones has a 5.47 ERA and leads their relievers in appearances. We will meet in PNC Park for the first time this year, which seats 38,496 and plays as a slight pitcher’s park. We took 2 out of 3 in St. Louis earlier this season.


June 4, 2021: G055 (29-26, 1st, +2G)

Star: STL 2B Kolten Wong 2-5, DBL, HR, 4 RBI, 2 RS
We had two grand slams in the game. Even You (not you) hit a home run today.

Memphis 2B Andre Hicks (.293-5-21) hit for the cycle and led the Redbirds to a 7-6 win over Omaha.


Walker Signs for 4 Years
The St. Louis Cardinals have finished a deal with SP Taijuan Walker that will extend his stay in St. Louis at least 4 years and will pay out $56 million. So far this year Walker has a 4-5 record with a 4.54 ERA. Fan reaction to the contract extension was amazing.


Contract Issues
We now have $9 million of budget room to sign the “gang of eight”. Wong is the only one of the group that is seriously in play at this point. Wacha and Miller are still under consideration for a short-term contract offer at a reduced salary. Snyder and Lamb are not in our plans. Montgomery is already signed; Hald and Perdomo are gone.

Arbitration estimates cloud the picture. The budget room would increase if an existing player signs an extension below the estimate, or vice versa. Extra money could also come from non-tender candidates like 1B Matt Adams and SP Tyrell Jenkins (estimated at $2M between them). My current plan is to sign Alfaro first, which will likely consume some of the excess, and leave the rest for off-season moves. Wong could be gone after this season, replaced by Hector Rios or Andre Hicks. We can’t keep everybody.


Lineup Adjustments
Sano and Jones, both hovering around .230 but with power, will drop down a slot and Dutch Deol will bat fifth for a while. I need someone with a better on-base percentage behind Alfaro. Deol continues to impress me beyond my original expectations of a journeyman. He is proving to be worthy of his $6M arbitration estimate, and now I am thinking he might even be a candidate for a contract extension offer.

Almora has great speed and gets on base as often as anyone else, so he will bat leadoff until Crawford returns. Wong will hit second and T-Mick continues to bat third despite his mediocre performance (.238/.322/.405 in 142 PA). I just don’t have a better option without Taveras. I continue to wonder if T-Mick is a good long-term answer at first base, especially considering the price tag. He is certainly too expensive to be a utility infielder, so he will compete with Ryder Jones for a spot if prospect Josh Williams develops into a first baseman.

I am happy with the early returns on shortstop and ninth batter Cristhian Adames (.289 with a .372 OBP and great defense). He will make the roster decision difficult when (if) Crawford finally returns. Fortunately, he has two options remaining so he won’t be lost on waivers if I decide to demote him in favor of keeping Snyder or Rios. However, I am thinking of keeping a switch-hitter on the bench to compliment the left-handed hitters.


June 5, 2021: G056 (30-26, 1st, +3G)

Star: STL SP Trevor Rosenthal 6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
We survived a rough ninth inning from Montgomery (allowed two solo homers).


June 6, 2021: G057 (31-26, 1st, +3G)

Star: STL C Jorge Alfaro 2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
Any other day, Odorizzi would have been the star: 8 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
The Cubs moved past the Reds to take over second place. The Pirates fall to fourth after the sweep.


Focus Changes
Several clubs have changed their attitudes about this season. Notably, division-rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have decided we are vulnerable. The Cubs remain neutral.



New York Loses Lincecum
Mets SP Tim Lincecum (8-2, 2.83) will be out 2-3 months with a partially torn labrum. The 36-year-old right-hander will be a free agent at the end of the season.


Players of the Week:
AL: CHA SS Ben Correa 10-20, 3 HR, 9 RBI
NL: PHI 2B Richard Corona 10-23, 3 HR, 7 RBI

[illeracula]

So you have signed till he is 32 years old. How do you feel about that?

I get hesitant about signing pitchers into their mid-30's, so I think you got a good deal... I will curious to see how he performs and what his demands are going to be in 5 years.

How old is Odorizzi?

Will Walker or Odorizzi be your "#1"?

By the way, I am a fan of You I hope he can stick around.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by illeracula

How old is Odorizzi?

Will Walker or Odorizzi be your "#1"?

Odorizzi is 31 and I have him signed through age 36. He is the #1. Walker is a strong #2. I feel good about both contracts, and I am glad that they don't end at the same time. I was very careful to choose pitchers that were durable, but there's always a risk of unexpected decline with pitchers.

Originally Posted by illeracula

By the way, I am a fan of You I hope he can stick around.

I like You too.

[Orcin]

Chicago Cubs (27-28) @ St. Louis Cardinals (31-26)
The Cubs come to town in second place and having just won 2 out of 3 from the Reds. They are in the upper-middle of the team stats in the N.L. despite several injuries to key players so far this season. We took 2 out of 3 in Chicago the last time we played.


June 7, 2021: G058 (32-26, 1st, +4G)

Star: STL SP Taijuan Walker 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 12 K
Walker’s sixth career shutout earned him a game score of 89.
Kolten Wong and backup catcher Steve Bean each had three hits.

Fourth-round draft pick SP Bill Lupkoski changed his mind about going to college, and accepted our offer of a minor league contract with a $2.5 million signing bonus. That is huge jack for a fourth-round pick, but the large bonus demand was the only reason that we got a shot at him as the 127th player taken. We also signed our fifth-round pick, 1B Rob Betancourt, to a minor league contract with a $250K signing bonus.


June 8, 2021: G059 (32-27, 1st, +3G)

Star: CHI SP Manny Banuelos 7.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
The Cubs knocked Flores out in the third. The league is beginning to get a book on him.


June 9, 2021: G060 (33-27, 1st, +3G)

Star: STL 3B Ryder Jones 3-5, HR, 4 RBI, 3 RS
SP Ray Chambers was out of the game in the fourth. Our bullpen is getting tired again.
Kolten Wong’s 3-run homer and a grand slam by Jones helped fuel a 9-run 7th inning.
Wong, Sano, and You (not you) each had three hits in the blowout win.

[Orcin]

San Diego Padres (36-24) @ St. Louis Cardinals (33-27)
The Padres come to town trailing the Dodgers by 5 games in the N.L. West. They have allowed the fewest runs in the National League (189, 3.15/game) but their offense ranks near the bottom of the pack with 223 runs scored. San Diego is missing their starting shortstop, Rocky Eierman, who is out 2-3 more weeks with an oblique strain. We were swept by the Padres in San Diego in mid-April, so payback is in order.


June 10, 2021: G061 (34-27, 1st, +3.5G)

Star: STL SP Trevor Rosenthal 8 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Jorge Alfaro continued his hitting streak (7 games) with 3 hits, including 2 home runs.


June 11, 2021: G062 (35-27, 1st, +4.5G)

Star: STL RF Vance Knox 2-3, HR, 4 RBI, BB, 2 RS
Odorizzi 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K, W (9-3, 3.16 ERA)

San Francisco 1B Brandon Belt will miss the rest of the season with a fractured knee.

Third-round draft pick SS John Hodge accepted our offer of a $500K signing bonus and will report to Jupiter in the Gulf Coast League (low rookie). Only second-round pick SP Harry Smith remains unsigned.


Trade Discussions
Baltimore wants to re-acquire their former third baseman Ryder Jones. They are pretty anxious to make a deal. They are offering any two starting pitchers from among their four Top-100 prospects, if we include some additional compensation. This deal is very tempting, because it would rebuild my pitching prospect list in a hurry.

I could move T-Mick back to third base and play Snyder or Vance Knox at first base for the rest of this season. The money that was allocated to Jones could be used to re-sign Wong, who is certainly playing better than Jones right now. I like the idea of retaining long-term home-grown players like Wong (and T-Mick) over imports like Jones.

I have tried to sign Jones to a contract extension and he wants far more than I am willing to pay. Thus, I may end up trading him next year anyway for much less value. Jones has one good major league season on his resume (last year). He started hot this year, but he is batting .207 with 3 HR and 12 RBI in 145 at bats since May 1.

Snyder or Knox couldn’t be much worse for now, but I would need to come up with a long-term solution at first base, preferably a right-handed power hitter. Josh Williams, currently learning to play first base at Memphis, is a right-handed power hitter.


June 12, 2021: G063 (36-27, 1st, +4.5G)

Star: STL DH Tarou Sano 2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB, 2 RS
A 70-minute rain delay knocked Taijuan Walker out of the game after 3 innings.

CF Albert Almora has a slash line of .303/.338/.492 while batting ninth. In the leadoff spot, he is .171/.244/.293 (41 at bats). He is moving back to the #9-slot and Knox will leadoff against right-handers.


Contract Extension for Alfaro
Catcher Jorge Alfaro agreed to a five-year contract extension worth $70 million. The AAV of $14M is fair compared to the top five catchers in MLB, and Alfaro is rated #1. Alfaro turned 28 years old yesterday, so this contract will carry him through his age-33 season. Fan reaction was amazing.

The next priority would be J.P. Crawford, but that one is more difficult. His demands are higher, and his value is harder to quantify. He is the #1-rated shortstop in MLB, when he is healthy. Since he has been injured so much this season, I am concerned about how he plays over the second half. It might lower his arbitration estimate and/or his salary demands. I am inclined right now to trade Jones, sign Wong, and ignore Crawford.


June 13, 2021: G064 (37-27, 1st, +4.5G)

Star: STL SP Jose Flores 7.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, W (4-3, 2.93 ERA)
We have won 5 straight and 9 of our last 10 since the four game sweep at Philly.

The Giants acquired veteran 1B/3B Stefan Welch from the Dodgers to replace the injured Brandon Belt. Welch is hitting .275 with 5 HR and 22 RBI this season. The Dodgers get backup catcher Jesus Montero from San Francisco.


Players of the Week:
AL: CLE C Mike Rodriguez 14-23, 0 HR, 6 RBI
NL: STL DH Tarou Sano 12-27, 4 HR, 8 RBI
Sano is tied for the N.L. lead with 16 home runs.

Peoria 1B Ted Cross (2018 draft, round 4) was selected as the Midwest League (low-A) Player of the Week (14-32, 4 HR, 12 RBI). The 23-year-old left-handed batter is hitting .295 with 11 home runs.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals (37-27) @ Colorado Rockies (32-32)
The Rockies need to keep oxygen in the dugout, and not just because of the rarified mountain air. The Denver offense is led by 37-year-old 1B Prince Fielder, 37-year-old SS Troy Tulowitzki, and 40-year-old LF Josh Hamilton. The pitching staff features lefty ace Chris Sale, a relative youngster at age 32, and 36-year-old Chad Billingsley. The Rockies are first in runs scored and last in runs allowed, just as you might expect from a team that plays its home games in Hitter’s Heaven, otherwise known as Coors Field (capacity 50,445). Walt Weiss has been the manager of the Rockies since 2013, with a career mark of 674-687 and no playoff appearances.


June 14, 2021: G065 (38-27, 1st, +4.5G)

Star: STL RF Dutch Deol 4-5, 2 DBL, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 RS


June 15, 2021: G066 (38-28, 1st, +4.5G)

Star: COL 1B Prince Fielder 1-4, HR, 2 RBI (GWRBI)
Rosenthal pitched a nice game but the bullpen couldn’t keep the ball in the park.
Sano would hit 100 homers playing a full season in Coors Field.

Washington catcher Joe Mauer recorded hit #2500 in a 4-3 win over San Diego.

Luis Perdomo had the #2 Performance of the Day for Seattle: 9 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, now 3-1 with a 2.03 ERA for the Mariners.


June 16, 2021: G067 (38-29, 1st, +3.5G)

Star: COL LF Dominic Smith 1-4, HR, 3 RBI (GWRBI)
I am happy to leave that freak show ballpark.


Trade Discussions
Baltimore wants more than Jones to part with one of their stud pitching prospects, and I am not willing to go there. In fact, I am not sure that I want to trade Jones at all. I am willing to listen to anything and great young pitching prospects are always tempting, but trading my starting third baseman without a better option available is contradictory to a “win now” philosophy. I need to find a replacement first, or at least get the replacement in the deal.

[canadian content]

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