Orcin's Story

[Orcin]

November 2, 2005 (cbatraderumors.com)

Subject: Contract Extension for Louisville's Dennis Morgan

The Louisville Colonels announced that they have signed star LF Dennis Morgan to a five-year contract extension worth a total of $52 million. The contract reportedly pays $9 million for the upcoming season, $10 million in 2007 and 2008, $11 million in 2009, and $12 million in 2010 if the Colonels exercise their team option. The contract extension buys out Morgan’s remaining three years of arbitration eligibility and his first two years of free agency. The Colonels paid a premium of $2 million over the arbitration estimate for 2006 in order to keep Morgan off the open market later.

Morgan missed the entire 2004 season with an injury after bursting onto the scene with 54 home runs and a .307 batting average in 2003. In 2005, Morgan had a good year but missed some games, including the entire post-season, with leg injuries. Colonels GM Otto Orcin is gambling that Morgan’s injuries are just a string of bad luck and not a pattern. He is also betting heavily that Morgan will regain his 2003 batting stroke.

Fan reaction to the contract in Louisville was off the charts. There had been rumors of a possible trade sending Morgan to the San Francisco Seals for star center fielder and potential leadoff hitter Arlen Smith. Louisville fans are assuming that the new contract means Morgan will be staying put, but veteran observers know that a trade is still possible and perhaps even more likely. Coincidentally, the Seals held their own press conference today to announce that Smith had signed a long-term extension, reportedly four years at $45 million. The amounts of the two contracts are eerily similar, and it occurs to this reporter that a trade would be easier now that each side knows the player is signed to an affordable contract.

Louisville fans may not be that familiar with 25-year-old Arlen Smith, so here is a brief thumbnail. Smith is in his third full season with the Seals, who drafted him out of college (St. Johns) with the 8th overall pick in the 2002 draft and sent him straight to the majors. Smith plays all three outfield spots and has won a Gold Glove in right field. His career stat line in 600 major league games: .311/.386/.445 with 47 HR and 134 SB. His career stolen base success rate is 79%. He is very durable, having missed a total of 12 games over the past three seasons with no reported injuries. He is popular with the fans and always hustles. But there is a catch. Smith is not well-liked by his teammates because he cares more about himself than the team. Smith was rumored to be mad about the acquisition of premier leadoff hitter Joe Avery because he makes more money, and allegedly annoyed about being moved to third in the lineup to accommodate Avery.

If Louisville GM Otto Orcin is truly interested in Smith, it would be to satisfy his craving for a leadoff hitter. Would he upset the team chemistry to get one? A source inside the Colonels organization reported that Orcin was upset with Morgan’s injury that caused him to miss the post-season again this year. Has he committed to Morgan again, or is he is setting the stage for a big trade? We will know soon enough.

[Orcin]

November 8, 2005 (cbatraderumors.com)

Subject: Colonels Avoid Arbitration with Davidson

The Louisville Colonels announced that they have agreed to terms on a new contract with star pitcher Chip Davidson. The deal will pay Davidson $18 million over the next four years. Davidson was headed for arbitration but this contract assures that he will never experience that process.

The 23-year-old lefthander was 13-12 last season with a 4.31 ERA and 172 strikeouts in 201 innings. Fan reaction to the new contract for the popular player was enthusiastic.

[Orcin]

2005 CBA Post-Season Awards

Outstanding Player:
Patriot League – RF Patrick Timm, Charleston Generals (.287, 55 HR, 122 RBI)
Federal League – RF Anthony Gettingby, Seattle Falcons (.335/.387/.594, 36 HR, 92 RBI)

Outstanding Pitcher:
Patriot League – Gilberto Huertas, Philadelphia Firebirds (20-11, 2.63 ERA, 268 K’s)
Federal League – Robert Westaway, Louisville Colonels (21-4, 2.57 ERA, 170 K’s)

Rookie of the Year:
Patriot League – 1B Ramiro Castro, Providence Grays (.291/.383/.474, 17 HR, 78 RBI)
Federal League – RF Anthony Gettingby, Seattle Falcons (.335/.387/.594, 36 HR, 92 RBI)

Executive of the Year:
Otto Orcin, Louisville Colonels (105-57)

Manager of the Year:
Patriot League – Daniel McArthur, Charlotte Knights (111-51)
Federal League – Chad Byrne, Louisville Colonels (105-57) – his fifth award
** This is the second straight season for the same two managers to win this award.

Gold Glove:
Louisville did not have any Gold Glove winners this year.


CBA 2005 Hall of Fame Class

No players were inducted into the Hall of Fame this year.

[SkyeWalker]

Gotta say I was surprised by your loss but hey you can't win them all!

[Orcin]

November 19, 2005 (BNN)

Subject: CBA Arbitration Hearings

The Continental Baseball Association salary arbitration hearings will be held today. To the casual observer, arbitration seems like a dry process -- a game of cat-and-mouse between lawyers and bean-counters. To CBA franchises, arbitration hearings might well signal the tone and tenor of the entire offseason as the decisions announced tomorrow will go a long way to determining the financial situation of each club. Players and teams will be notified tomorrow of the decisions in each case.

Salary Arbitration Decisions in Favor of the Louisville Colonels:
• Catcher Troy Daniels was awarded $700,000. The player demanded $1,107,000.

Salary Arbitration Decisions Against the Louisville Colonels:
• 2B Mariano Gonzalez was awarded $4,131,000. The team offered $2,800,000.

I was warned, and I actually even predicted the amount. The evaluation of Gonzalez is probably based on his ratings, because he virtually has no stats for two of the last three years. Gonzalez has tons of potential, but he has yet to realize any of it. He will get another chance in 2006, but he will have to fight Tom John for playing time. John has done more on the field than Gonzalez, and that’s what counts.

Other contract-related news from November:
• SP Brian Wilson refused arbitration and will become a free agent. The Colonels will receive a supplemental draft pick between rounds 1 and 2 as compensation.
• LF Hugh McGlone and 3B Juan Aponte were not tendered an arbitration offer and will become free agents without compensation.
• LF Dennis Morgan and SP Chip Davidson avoided arbitration by signing contract extensions.
• AAA manager Chris Ray signed a three-year extension at $650,000 per year, a 24% raise.
• AA manager Ben Blair accepted a four-year extension at $620,000 per year, a more modest 7% raise. Blair was already well paid for a manager at the AA level.
• Dallas signed star SP Carlos De La Cruz (17-10, 2.37 ERA, age 37) to a two-year contract extension at $13.5M/year to keep him off of the free agent market.

[Orcin]

November 22, 2005 (BNN)

Subject: Free Agents File

Today is the first day of the free agency period. With the arrival of free agency comes the opportunity for each club across the Continental Baseball Association to propel themselves into the playoffs simply by making a few shrewd, well-calculated signings. General Managers have to choose wisely where to spend their dollars. An expensive signing could be the key to a playoff spot or it could handcuff a franchise for years to come.

This year's key free agents include:

• 2B Manuel Fernández, age 29, 2005 w/Seattle: .276/.325/.518, 39 HR, 116 RBI, asking $23M/year x 6
• SP Roberto Campos, age 30, 2005 w/Boston: 15-9, 3.36 ERA, 164 K, asking $22M/year x 6
• SP Brian Wilson, age 31, 2005 w/Louisville: 14-12, 3.77 ERA, 192 K, asking $23M/year x 8
• 1B Akinori Ishikawa, age 37, 2005 w/Detroit: .250/.333/.522, 46 HR, 110 RBI, asking $22M/year x 5
• SS Leroy Becker, age 28, 2005 w/Detroit: .266/.346/.428, 17 HR, 83 RBI, asking $21M/year x 6
• SP Jorge Figueroa, age 36, 2005 w/Baltimore: 15-12, 3.29 ERA, 207 K, asking $21M/year x 5
• SP Daniel Espinoza, age 27, 2005 w/Phoenix: 15-15, 3.17 ERA, 186 K, asking $20M/year x 6
• SP Dan Todd, age 30, 2005 w/Dallas: 13-1, 1.71 ERA, 101 K, asking $20M/year x 6

Each GM has a different approach to free agency. Many fans enjoy this offseason maneuvering just as much as the regular season as they watch to see how the face of their team changes over the next several months.

**********

Yes, it is THAT Jorge Figueroa! Baltimore scouts told Candelaria that the Robins were not interested in a new contract because Figueroa’s velocity has dropped from 98 to 90. I was warned to stay away but that’s not a problem. I can’t afford him anyway. I’ll let the big spenders (New York) take that risk.

[Orcin]

November 22, 2005

Subject: Budget Projections – 2006

Eligible players filed for free agency today, so I now have my first clean look at the roster and salary commitments with arbitration also out of the way.



The 2006 salaries, including approximately $8 million for personnel, project to be $10 million under budget. However, there are only 23 players on a major league contract right now. Add 17 players at the minimum salary of $450K to account for a full roster, and the budget surplus falls to $2.3 million. The real number is somewhere in between, but I use the more conservative figure for planning purposes. There will be at least 5-7 additional players on major league contracts during the season just due to injuries.

The real crunch will come next year (always) when the payroll increases by $13 million just due to contractual obligations. However, the $8 million to Jaramillo, $3.6 million to O’Daniel, and $2.4 million to King are all team options. The budget could be balanced simply by choosing not to exercise that $14 million in options. I might need to let those players go anyway to make room for younger talent. Jaramillo is still on the block.

Notice that the chart assumes an arbitration figure for Simon and Martinez. It’s handy for planning to have a figure there, but they are beyond arbitration and will become free agents if not signed to an extension. I can afford to sign Simon and Martinez and I will likely negotiate extensions with them at or below the estimated figure in the chart. Every other player on the 40-man roster is under club control for next season.

[Orcin]

Subject: Preparations for the Rule 5 Draft

I had 32 players on the secondary roster before making any adjustments. I added only those players that had a chance to compete for a spot on the active roster AND needed to be protected. This did not include prospects such as SP Juan Hernandez, SS Cristo Rodriguez, and LF Juan Moran, all of whom will be added before spring training.

I protected 27-year-old C Mark Taylor, 22-year-old SS Octavio Mata, and 22 CF Arlen Craig from the Lexington roster because I was so short at those valuable positions in the organization. There are other players at risk, but I am only concerned about losing players that are real prospects. If the bottom-feeders of the league fill their major league rosters with my fringe prospects, so be it.

I made two minor trades with rebuilding teams prior to the Rule 5 draft. The goal was the same in both of these trades: deal minor league players that I was likely to lose for players that could be valuable. The two players acquired both have options remaining and can be stashed at AAA if needed, but one or both could be on the active roster.

The first trade sent Evansville catcher Ron Lambert to Chicago for SP Aaron Wilkerson. Lambert was rated the #2 player in the Rule 5 draft pool by Candelaria, but he was not going to make the 40-man roster for us. Wilkerson is a decent 25-year-old pitcher that will contend for the fifth starter spot. He was 8-14 with a 5.64 ERA for a bad Chicago team last season, but his BABIP was .321 so there is hope for improvement. He has two options left and two years until he becomes arbitration-eligible. I am hopeful that our coaches can help him because his ratings are major league quality.

The trade for Wilkerson allowed me to trade SP Warren Corbishley, who was out of options and would have been lost on waivers eventually. I sent Corbishly to Denver along with lefty AA starter Jose Vazquez, another player that was high on the Rule 5 draft pool list, for a former Louisville player, 29-year-old utility infielder Russell Bennett. Veteran readers might remember Bennett, a speedy switch-hitter with good defensive skills who can play all infield and outfield positions. I traded Bennett to Denver two years ago, when I had a lot of middle infielders, for Lorenzo Olivares. Now he returns, after two years as Denver’s shortstop, to provide insurance for rookie SS Cristo Rodriguez. Bennett makes $2.6 million via arbitration, so the deal puts a small squeeze on my budget but I still hope to move Jaramillo before spring training to solve that problem.


Subject: Rule 5 Draft

We did not take anyone in the draft, and we did not lose anyone in the draft.

[Orcin]

Notable Free Agent Signings prior to the Winter Meetings

11/30/2005: The Los Angeles Vipers landed the first big fish, signing former Seattle infielder Manuel Fernandez for five years and $98 million ($19.6M/year). The Vipers can use his bat and could play him at several different positions. Seattle will miss him.

11/30/2005: Washington signed former Detroit 1B/3B Anikori Ishikawa to a three-year, $57 million contract ($19M/year). Fans of the Admirals are concerned because of the slugger’s age (37), poor defensive skills, and “wrecked” physical condition.

11/30/2005: Former Dallas SP Dan Todd (13-1, 1.71) went to Cincinnati for $71 million over four years ($17.8M/year). Todd will head up the rotation for the Bobcats, who were 13th in the Patriot League in pitching last season.

12/01/2005: Pittsburgh signed former Phoenix SP Daniel Espinosa to a 5-year deal worth $84.4 million (avg. $16.9M/year). He will be the ace of an already decent staff. They were a contender until the end last year, and this will help them close the gap.

12/02/2005: Pittsburgh continued by signing former Colonels and, most recently, Salt Lake City LF Harry Hall to a four-year contract worth $61 million ($15.2M/year). Let’s put that into perspective for a second… he will make 50% more than Dennis Morgan. Hall is 30 years old, and just missed an entire season due to injury. In his two previous years as a regular for the Bees, his average season was .295 with 25 HRs and 90 RBIs.

12/04/2005: The Baltimore Robins signed SP Roberto Campos to a four-year contract that will pay him $79 million ($19.7M/year). Campos is going into his twelfth season but he is only 30 years old. He has 165 career victories already. He is filling some big shoes as he will be asked to replace free agent Jorge Figueroa in the rotation.

12/05/2005: Dallas continued their push to join the big boys, signing former Detroit SS Leroy Becker to a four-year deal worth $68 million ($17M/year). Becker is a switch-hitter with good power that will fit well in the middle of their lineup. They are trying to build an offense to support their superb pitching staff. This is a good start.

12/06/2005: Detroit started their rebuilding by signing 27-year-old former San Francisco catcher Pancho Carmona to a seven-year contract worth $94 million ($13.4M/year). He was an all-star last season and hit over .300. His catching ability is very good too.

12/09/2005: I predicted this one. New York signed free agent SP Jorge Figueroa to a three-year contract for $53 million ($17.6M/year). He should still be a darn good starter even with his alleged decline in velocity.

12/09/2005: Baltimore got even by signing former New York SP Enrique Flores to a two-year, $28 million deal. Flores was 17-10 with a 3.14 ERA in 2005 and he has 175 career wins. He is 35 years old, but should have two years left.

Brian Wilson is the only top free agent left from my earlier list, and the Winter Meetings haven’t even started yet. GMs are doing their Christmas shopping early this year.

[Orcin]

December 12, 2005

Subject: Winter Meetings Begin

An annual rite of passage in Continental Baseball Association, the winter meetings signify membership in an exclusive fraternity of men. Some have led clubs to glory, others aspire to. All are here to discuss the latest baseball happenings, to define the offseason with that big signing or trade that could bring victory home. For three days you will watch, learn and help mold the upcoming season. Be ready, but don't be hasty.

The Louisville Colonels traditionally kick off the meetings with a blockbuster trade involving big names. We hate to disappoint our fans, but this year is a little different. We did make a quick trade, and it might be the biggest deal ever for the franchise. Or it might be the worst. Or it might be nothing.


Subject: Jaramillo and Castro Dealt to Providence (BNN)

The Louisville Colonels have parted ways with 22-year-old starting pitcher Pedro Castro and 29-year-old center fielder Manuel Jaramillo in a trade with the Providence Grays for 19-year-old minor league center fielder Rafael Valdéz. The Colonels general manager Otto Orcin confirmed the deal in an announcement this morning.

His lifetime stats show Jaramillo has batted .265 and collected 882 hits, 72 home runs and 427 RBIs. Castro was 2-5 with a 5.66 ERA in nine starts for Louisville last season. Fans in Louisville were reportedly not happy with the trade.

***********

Of course the fans were not happy. BNN said absolutely nothing about Valdez. Maybe if the fans had a little information, they would see why this deal was made. Jaramillo was known to be on the block in order to make room for Dominguez in the starting lineup. The Grays insisted on Castro in the deal. My willingness to trade him was based on Candelaria’s most recent report about Juan Hernandez. He says Hernandez is better than Castro and will likely be the fifth starter anyway. That’s good enough for me.

So what about Rafael Valdez? He was the first player taken overall in the 2004 draft. Have I got your attention now? Candelaria gives Valdez straight 10’s on offensive potential. He is a five-tool switch-hitter with good speed and excellent defensive skills. OK, he is only 19 years old and maybe all of that potential is not real. He hasn’t done a lot in the minors so far and OSA says he is a bust. All I know is this… he was good enough for BNN to make him the #33 prospect and Providence liked him well enough to take him #1 overall. He is a smart kid with a high work ethic. I want to see what our player development team can do with him. It will certainly be interesting to see if Valdez or Castro has a better career.

[Orcin]

2005 Winter Meetings (continued)

12/12/2005: The Boston Bombers signed former Salt Lake City 3B Orlando Rodriguez to a four-year contract for $67 million ($16.7M./year). Rodriguez is a solid .300+ hitter with a fantastic glove, but he has no power, no speed, and he is injury-prone.

12/13/2005: Cleveland convinced 3B Billy Saling to re-sign with them after he filed for free agency. The 28-year-old slugger received $99 million over six years ($16.5M/year).

12/15/2005: The Louisville Colonels finalized a deal with All Star shortstop Pierre-Louis Simon that will extend his stay in Louisville another three years at an average annual salary of $9 million. Owner Henry Cooper and Louisville fans were ecstatic over the deal, forgetting all about Pedro Castro. Fan interest is off the charts (100).

12/15/2005: LF Hugh McGlone signed a three-year contract with the Cleveland Rockers worth $19.5 million ($6.5M/year). Our sources say he will hit third in the Rockers lineup.

12/15/2005: San Francisco addressed their first base problem, getting veteran Manuel Loneoria from Denver in return for backup outfielder Jonathan Bailey.

**********

I made another trade just as the meetings were about to close. I am concerned about the lack of outfield depth, especially from the right side of the plate. I was able to trade two good AAA relievers, Micah Reed and Jason Watson, who were unfortunately out of options, for a good 24-year-old right-handed outfielder with all three options.

Subject: Louisville-Charleston Swap Reed for Gonzalez

It's being reported in the Louisville press that the Colonels have traded 26-year-old minor league reliever Micah Reed and 23-year-old minor league reliever Jason Watson to the Charleston Generals for 24-year-old center fielder Juan González. As a rookie outfielder for Charleston last season, González hit for a .258 average and totaled 50 hits, 12 home runs and 20 RBIs. He appeared in 103 games, some of them as a late-inning defensive replacement.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Subject: Jaramillo and Castro Dealt to Providence (BNN)

The Louisville Colonels have parted ways with 22-year-old starting pitcher Pedro Castro and 29-year-old center fielder Manuel Jaramillo in a trade with the Providence Grays for 19-year-old minor league center fielder Rafael Valdéz. [...]

Of course the fans were not happy.

I'm happy neither. That would have been too high a prize for me to do that trade.

[Sal, The Barber]

Sal always supports Mr. Orcin. Sal just puts his blindfold on and keeps cutting the hair!

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

Sal just puts his blindfold on and keeps cutting the hair!

I had to read this one twice.

[Orcin]

Highlights from the 2005 Holiday Season

12/22/2005: The Indianapolis Indians made a big splash in free agency by signing former San Diego 2B Jim Hannah to a three-year contract worth $50 million ($16.7M/year). Hannah is 34 but he can still swing the bat, hitting .311 for the Stallions last season. He has a reputation for being injury-prone but he has appeared in more than 144 games each of the last three seasons and 158 last year.

12/24/2005: The Louisville Colonels signed 3B Lucio Martinez to a one-year contract extension that will pay him $4.2 million in 2007. He is scheduled to make $3.5 million this season. The Colonels did not want Martinez to hit free agency but sources inside the organization say that Martinez refused to negotiate on a longer contract.

12/27/2005: Indianapolis continued to reel in free agents by inking 1B Mike Hutchison to a three-year contract worth $38.7 million ($12.9M/year). Hutchison is 35 years old and has played for several teams, including Salt Lake City in 2005 where he hit .272 with 36 HR and 127 RBI.

12/28/2005: Chicago signed the last big-name free agent on the board, former Louisville SP Brian Wilson. The 31-year-old right-hander received a six-year contract worth $106 million ($17.7M/year). It is an escalating salary structure, and the sixth year (at $22M) has a vesting option that requires 180 innings in the prior season. He will be the ace of the Chicago staff and it will be interesting to have him in our division. We will receive a compensation pick in this year’s draft. Louisville fans were upset by the loss of Wilson, but fan interest was so high that it remained at 100.

12/28/2005: Former Washington CF Andrew Wilson signed with Salt Lake City for $61.6 million over four years ($15.4M/year). The 30-year-old Wilson is a solid player with good speed and defensive skills but I thought this was a stretch similar to the Harry Hall deal.

12/28/2005: Los Angeles signed former Cincinnati catcher Roberto Vasquez to a four-year deal worth $44 million (avg. $11M/year). Vasquez is no Bland but he is a pretty decent catcher who plays 145 games per year and hits .270 with 20-30 home runs.

12/31/2005: The Louisville Colonels signed former Cincinnati CF Slamet Nitisastro to a one-year contract at $2.6 million. GM Otto Orcin said that the former (2001) Rookie of the Year would compete for a bench spot with the Colonels. His ability to play all three outfield positions and his power from the right side led to this offer according to Orcin. Nitisastro hit .236 with 28 HR and 66 RBI for the Bobcats last season. He also struck out 135 times in 474 at bats.

[Westheim]

You complain about poor Conceicao Pontes' name and sign some Smallfeet Isthatso instead?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Westheim

You complain about poor Conceicao Pontes' name and sign some Smallfeet Isthatso instead?

Hey, I can pronounce it, so I am good with it. Plus you gotta love a slugger with the name "Slamet".

[Sal, The Barber]

When Sal says this name it sounds like he is drunk, and Sal is not always drunk. Only some of the time. This will give Sal a bad name. Sal has a reputation to uphold.

[dynaboyj]

I feel like I know Slamet from somewhere. Has he done anything of importance?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by dynaboyj

I feel like I know Slamet from somewhere. Has he done anything of importance?

It could be from this post on page 9.

Originally Posted by Orcin

2001 CBA Post-Season Awards

Outstanding Player:
Patriot League – LF Jon Schultz, Charlotte Knights (.318, 63 HR, 172 RBI)
Federal League – 1B Josh Haley, Los Angeles Vipers (.322, 62 HR, 137 RBI)

** Schultz set a CBA record for RBI in a season.
** Haley won the award for the second straight season.

Outstanding Pitcher:
Patriot League – Jorge Figueroa, Baltimore Robins (26-3, 1.24 ERA, 320 K’s)
Federal League – Todd Fletcher, Louisville Colonels (24-5, 1.72 ERA, 189 K’s)

** Figueroa won this award for the NINTH time!

Rookie of the Year:
Patriot League – CF Slamet Nitisastro, Cincinnati Bobcats (.259, 28 HR, 73 RBI)
Federal League – RF Jose Baca, San Diego Stallions (.309/.407/.439, 25 SB, 90 RS)

** Gotta love that name for a hitter… Slamet Nitisastro.

Manager of the Year:
Patriot League – Daniel MacArthur, Charlotte Knights (82-80)
Federal League – Stephen Beard, San Diego Stallions (105-57)