Orcin's Story

[soxfan34]

Originally Posted by Laser

Do you set the lineups and handle pinch hitters and relief pitchers for the games you play out or do you let the manager handle these options?

I was going to ask the same thing.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Laser

Do you set the lineups and handle pinch hitters and relief pitchers for the games you play out or do you let the manager handle these options?

When I write notes about the games, I often say Byrne (my manager) did this or that. In fact, that is just to fit the story. In reality, I control all of the moves when I manage the game.

On days that I sim the game, I start the game as manager so that I can set the lineup. As soon as the game actually starts, I quick-sim to the end of the game. Once that button is pressed, the game operates just like a simulated game in that the computer manager controls all substitutions and strategies. (So, on those days, Byrne actually did do "this or that".)

[Orcin]

Preliminary 2006 Planning: Roster Analysis, and Depth Chart, part 3

Third Base: Lucio Martinez is rated #18 of 30 CBA third basemen. His reputation as an over-achiever is well documented, but this comparison illustrates it perfectly. Martinez has a VORP for the past four seasons of 34, 43, 26, and 31 (total 134). The #1 third baseman has VORP scores of 40, 19, 33, and 48 (total 140) over the same period. Martinez is nearly as good, more consistent, and he makes $10M/year less.

Now for the bad news, Lucio will be 31 next season and going into the final year of his contract. He wore down in the second half, hitting .245 after the all-star break and only .148 in the post-season. I want to sign Martinez for 2-3 more years with the idea that he would become that RH 1B/3B option off the bench. I have yet to identify a successor at third base, but there is one obvious candidate in the organization.

Shortstop: Pierre-Louis Simon is the #5-rated CBA shortstop. He will be 30 years old next season, and he is going into the final year of his contract. I have multiple prospects in the organization to replace him, but he is a team leader and our most popular player.

Problem #1: Simon wants to bat at the top of the lineup, and his 54 stolen bases and 97 runs scored per year over the past six seasons makes a good argument for it. He also averages 32 doubles, 9 triples, and 21 home runs per season. However, his career .333 OBP and 107 strikeouts per year are a better fit for the lower half of the order.

Problem #2: His defense at shortstop is becoming an issue. His lifetime stats are .971 FPCT, 4.34 RF, +4.5 ZR, and 1.017 EFF. Contrast that to this year’s .959 FPCT, 4.11 RF, -1.6 ZR, .994 EFF and you can see that he is slowing down in the field. It might be time for him to move to a less demanding position, such as third base.

I can solve both problems by installing an outstanding defensive shortstop that could bat first and moving Simon to third base and the lower part of the order. Cristo Rodriguez is the best defensive shortstop prospect in our system, and he is ready. He is not a leadoff hitter though and would probably bat eighth. Either Simon remains as the leadoff hitter, or one of the outfielders must bat at the top of the order. We’ll talk more about that later.

Utility infield: Howard Archuleta did a great job for us last year in this role. He hit .327 in 165 at bats and he was murder on left-handed pitching in a platoon role with John. He will be 34 years old and wants a multi-year contract for silly money. He might be back if he is still available in the spring and agrees to sign a one-year deal for $1 million again. If not, we will need to find another middle infielder to fill this role. Juan Aponte had a -2.9 VORP in 2005 and he is out of options. He will be shopped. Martinez would be ideal as the backup corner infielder. The Gonzalez/John loser may end up as the other backup infielder. Simon gives me a lot of roster flexibility because he can play every position on the field except catcher.

Next: Outfield

P.S. I anticipate that this controversial post will draw some flack from certain readers.

[Stromson]

- Honestly, I'm pretty okay with the game plan for Lucio. He has been a great servant to the club, but his age was definitely starting to show in the second half of last year. I think he'd transition nicely into a utility role (hopefully he agrees), and the reduced wear-and-tear would probably help is production. I'd prefer to see him retire in a Colonels uniform.

- Great idea with Simon. You keep your most popular player in the lineup without sacrificing your defense. I'm glad I don't have to make that lineup decision though (that's why the Coopers pay you the big bucks).

- How is Juan Aponte still around? I swear he's been on the trading block for a few years now. Hard to argue with a cheap utility guy who doesn't mind being played sparingly though.

- From the previous entries, I'd say stick with Tom John. He's proven himself, and I think he should get the starting nod. Of course if he starts to falter...

[soxfan34]

Originally Posted by Orcin

When I write notes about the games, I often say Byrne (my manager) did this or that. In fact, that is just to fit the story. In reality, I control all of the moves when I manage the game.

On days that I sim the game, I start the game as manager so that I can set the lineup. As soon as the game actually starts, I quick-sim to the end of the game. Once that button is pressed, the game operates just like a simulated game in that the computer manager controls all substitutions and strategies. (So, on those days, Byrne actually did do "this or that".)

Lol do you have a day-job!?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by soxfan34

Lol do you have a day-job!?

Heh, yes and I am working at it right now. I'll let you in on a little secret. I wrote all four of today's posts last night. I posted one of them each time I checked the forum today. Here comes #4.

I don't sleep much though. I play OOTP instead.

[Orcin]

Preliminary 2006 Planning: Roster Analysis, and Depth Chart, part 4

Left Field: In 2003, Dennis Morgan’s stat line over 154 games was .307/.383/.651. This year, it was .275/.341/.521 in only 128 games due to a leg injury. He missed the playoffs due to a second leg injury. In between, he missed an entire season due to a leg injury. Let me spell it out for you… his legs are prone to injuries plus his performance fell off from his peak season. However, he is still rated as the CBA’s #2 left fielder and he is a team leader. He is also a fan favorite and trading him would be a very unpopular move. On the other hand, signing him to a long-term contract would be a wildly popular move that could offset negative reaction from the loss of a key free agent such as Brian Wilson. Morgan is going to arbitration for a second time this year, and will likely get $7M. He is looking for a six-year extension at an average of $10.5M/year, scaling up from $7M to $12M. That would be a bargain salary for a healthy 2003 Dennis Morgan.

Center Field: Manuel Jaramillo had the worst year of his career and he is rated as the #29 center fielder. He will turn 30 years old next June and might have already seen his peak season. He is still an exceptional defender in center field and showed that he can be productive at the plate in streaks during the post-season. He is signed for 2006 at $7M with a 2007 team option at $8M. Pedro Dominguez is only 22 years old. He looks to be nearly as good as Jaramillo in the field, and has the potential to be a lot better at the plate. Dominguez will win the job in spring training and then we will have a decision to make unless we make it over the winter. Jaramillo is on the trading block. The serious question is whether Dominguez could be the leadoff hitter. He has the speed without a doubt. He makes good contact and has a good eye, but neither is exceptional.

Right Field: Lorenzo Olivares had a stat line of .304/.391/.558 for Denver in 2003 but he has a composite stat line of .251/.341/.483 over the past two years in Louisville. He is signed to a four-year contract at an average salary of $4.5M/year. His production will justify that contract, but I really want more out of my corner outfield spots. He is rated as the #11 right fielder and his defense is superb, so maybe I am asking for too much here.

Reserves: Jeffrey Jackson has been decent as a backup outfielder. He can play all three spots plus first base. He has good speed and can steal a base as a pinch-runner. He makes $4.5M/year, so he is not cheap for a backup outfielder. Olivares can do all of that with power for the same price, so he might be a better option as a fourth outfielder.

Hugh McGlone missed two months with injuries this year and his performance suffered. He is in his final year of arbitration, and the estimate is $6M/year. He wants $7M/year for a three-year contract extension. I shopped him extensively prior to the trade deadline and only received offers of over-priced veterans in return. He is on the trading block until the arbitration deadline.

Prospects: Juan Moran could be the real deal. Candelaria says that he projects to be a .360 hitter with elite power and a perfect eye. Whoa! The opening day outfield could be Morgan in left, Dominguez in center, and Moran in right. Olivares would really improve the bench.

[SandMan]

Wow, with Jaramillo and Oliveras as reserves that makes it $11.5M in salary for bench players. Can you afford this with your current payroll? Hopefully someone will take Jaramillo off your hands. Anxiously looking to see what moves you make this offseason.

[Sal, The Barber]

Mr. Orcin, this is a lot of barbershop talk--just the kind of thing Sal is good at. Yes, Sal would be very sorry to see See-moan go, but Sal agrees that he is in decline defensively. But moving him to 3B, while a clever move, creates a bit of a problem. What you lose with Lucio going to the bench is power. See-moan will not give that to you from the hot corner. And you have one corner outfielder who is not such a power hitter in Olivares. So you will win by bunting, stealing, hitting and running, and with good pitching and defense. This is not normally your style. Of course, if you can keep Morgan and Brown healthy you do not need anymore power. But this has proven to be too much even for you.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

Mr. Orcin, this is a lot of barbershop talk--just the kind of thing Sal is good at.

Indeed, this is the "hot stove" league. You do have a hot stove in the corner, don't you? Next to the spittoon?

If I take Martinez out and replace him with Rodriguez (or a similar slick-fielding, light-hitting shortstop), I will lose 20-25 home runs per year. I agree that's a big loss. However, Lucio only had 7 of his 25 home runs after the all-star break, so we effectively played the whole second half that way last year. We scored 396 runs in the first half and 440 in the second half, so it can work.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by SandMan

Wow, with Jaramillo and Oliveras as reserves that makes it $11.5M in salary for bench players. Can you afford this with your current payroll?

No.

I definitely don't want that much payroll on the bench. I have yet to completely convince myself that Olivares won't be starting though. You are right about Jaramillo. He is more expensive and appears to be have his best offensive years behind him.

[Orcin]

First Day of Off-Season

That was a pretty long-winded analysis but now the next few posts can be shorter and more concise. Before continuing, I remind you of the standard task list for today:

• Address open personnel positions
• Make decision to exercise or decline team options
• Offer arbitration (or not) to potential free agents
• Submit arbitration offers to eligible players or decide not to tender them
• Make offers to potential free agents (or not), including minor league free agents

I attend to all of these tasks before I advance the game to the next day, but of course I don’t finish every task because I have to wait for answers on some of them.


Task: Fill open personnel positions

I don’t have any positions open! I have several expiring contracts at the end of next year though, and I might want to extend some of those. Top priority is Chris Ray, manager of the back-to-back AAA champion Lexington Legends. Ben Blair, the manager at Dayton (AA), also has only one year left and I would like to keep him. Both of these managers will be offered extensions with nice raises attached.

Evansville pitching coach Pedro Morales did a great job with our young pitchers in Class A. His contract expires at the end of next season too, but he has no interest in staying at Evansville. That might change over the course of next season.

Another Evansville contract with one year remaining is hitting coach Trent Hodge. He is 63 and I am looking for an upgrade there, so I have no interest in an extension for him.

Owensboro (Rookie League) also has two expiring contracts but I want to see another season. I am not thrilled with the performance there so far.

[Orcin]

Task: Make decision to exercise or decline team options

I have no decisions to make on team options this year.


Task: Offer arbitration (or not) to potential free agents

I will offer arbitration to my one compensation-eligible free agent:

SP Brian Wilson (222 IP, 14-12, 3.77 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 192 K, age 32, 4 stars)

I will be shocked if Wilson accepts arbitration. He is looking for a big payday. His greed factor is low though, so you never know.

The following players will not be offered arbitration and will become free agents:

SP Ron MacLain (83.2 IP, 4-3, 3.98 ERA, age 33, 1.5 stars)
1B Alfredo Rivera (336 AB @ AAA, .327/.423/.667, 30 HR, age 32, 1 star)
2B/SS Howard Archuleta (165 AB, .327/.381/.430, age 34, 3 stars)

Rivera was signed to hold down the position at AAA and take the pressure off the kids there. He did that job well, but he has no future behind Chris Brown. He will try again to get a major league gig, using his exceptional AAA year as bargaining leverage.

As stated previously, I would not mind to have Archuleta back at the right price.

[Orcin]

Task: Submit arbitration offers to eligible players or decide not to tender them

There are six players eligible for arbitration, and four of them are back from last year. Four of these six players will receive offers, but not the same returning four.

LF Dennis Morgan (480 AB, .275/.341/.521, 29 HR, 89 RBI, age 25, 5 stars) is back for a second round of arbitration. His estimate is $6.825 million. He will be offered that for the moment because I intend to negotiate an extension with him.

LF Hugh McGlone (131 AB, .282/.303/.420, 2 HR, age 29, 2.5 stars) made a great case for a long-term contract last season, but fortunately we could not agree on one. He has become injury-prone and his performance suffered. His estimate is $6 million and I have no idea where that comes from other than longevity. I need McGlone’s roster spot for rookie Juan Moran, so I will not tender an offer. Good luck, Hugh.

SP Chip Davidson (201 IP, 13-12, 4.31 ERA, age 23, 4 stars) is a super-2 qualifier. I can’t afford to fool around because his figure will be steep. I will offer the $4.8 million estimate, but I intend to explore an extension. If he refuses to negotiate reasonably, I may increase the arbitration offer to $5 million just to limit the possible damage.

2B Mariano Gonzalez (34 AB, .176/.263/.382, 2 HR, 1 SB, age 26, 4.5 stars) has an estimate of $3.4 million. That’s outrageous for his performance, and especially coming off a $2 million award for a better year. I am tempted to low-ball this one but I could end up paying $4 million if I am not careful. I will offer $2.8 million and see what happens.

3B Juan Aponte (81 AB, .259/.326/.259, 0 HR, 0 SB, age 30, 2.5 stars) is back for a third arbitration year. His estimate is $950,000 and that is a lot to pay for 21 singles. I am positive that I can get that from a minimum salary player, so I will not tender an offer to Aponte. I need his spot on the active roster for SS Cristo Rodriguez.

C Troy Daniels (104 AB, .298/.327/.433, 2 HR, 0 SB, age 30, 1 star) is eligible for the first time. His estimate is $700K and I will pay it without blinking.

[soxfan34]

Originally Posted by Orcin

2B Mariano Gonzalez (34 AB, .176/.263/.382, 2 HR, 1 SB, age 26, 4.5 stars) has an estimate of $3.4 million. That’s outrageous for his performance, and especially coming off a $2 million award for a better year. I am tempted to low-ball this one but I could end up paying $4 million if I am not careful. I will offer $2.8 million and see what happens.

Do you have the AI Eval ratings-heavy? IRL someone coming off that type of year would never get that type of money. Just a thought.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by soxfan34

Do you have the AI Eval ratings-heavy?

40-40-15-5 (default for fictional)

[Orcin]

Task: Make offers to potential free agents (or not), including minor leaguers

There are 14 possible free agents. I have already made decisions on 4 players (Wilson, MacLain, Rivera, and Archuleta), leaving 10 to consider. All ten of these players are fringe minor-leaguers with potential of 1.5 stars or less. My minor league system has improved to the point that filler is no longer necessary. I don’t have to rush any players to maintain full rosters, so why keep a glut of non-prospects? I offered minor league contracts to C Mark Taylor and lefty reliever Manny Hernandez. The other eight players were released.

Louisville Colonels: projected secondary roster for 2006
Starting Pitchers (9): Westaway, Luna, Davidson, Alexander, Castro, Hernandez (will be added to compete for 5th starter), Jackson (AAA), Yates (AAA), Corbishley (AAA)
Relief Pitchers (10): King, Brooks, Jones, Garza, Trejo, O’Daniel, Sherman, Reed (AAA), Watson (AAA), White (AAA)
Catchers (4): Bland, Daniels, Matchim (AAA), Taylor (will be added to protect from Rule 5 draft)
First Base (1): Brown
Infielders (8): Simon, Martinez, Gonzalez, John, Rodriguez (will be added), Holliday (AAA), Octavio Mata (will be added to protect from Rule 5 draft)
Outfielders (7): Morgan, Dominguez, Olivares, Jaramillo, Jackson, Moran (will be added), Arlen Craig (will be added to protect from Rule 5 draft)

I have several players that are still at risk for the Rule 5 draft, but there is no roster room to protect them. This is the first time that I have been in this position. I suppose I should be happy that the system is producing more talent than I can use.

[5cards]

Originally Posted by soxfan34

Do you have the AI Eval ratings-heavy? IRL someone coming off that type of year would never get that type of money. Just a thought.

Looking at the stats, though, the numbers are very misleading. He only took a total of 34 AB - that tells me he either spent a long stint on the DL or was playing in the minors. The 4.5 stars would drive his asking price up and I'd bet his greed level is also higher than average.

Orcin - just because I am my ever-curious self, could you post more information on Mr. Gonzalez - maybe his three-year history or something?

[Orcin]

Mariano Gonzalez missed almost the entire 2005 season with torn ankle ligaments suffered at the end of spring training. His brief stats came as a September addition to the roster but he was left off the playoff roster.

He was a part-time second baseman in 2004, hitting .252 with 4 homers in 322 at bats. In 2003, he was injured in spring training and missed almost the entire season.

Gonzalez was acquired from New York in a 2001 trade along with Duncan Bland for SP Alfredo Gonzalez.

[5cards]

Hmmm... I'd have to see the history of the ratings next, but $3.5 million for him - especially if he has 4.5 star potential or actual - is quite a steal. Given that he was out for much of the past year you have to really discard the limited number of ABs as he would have to shake off the rust from being out of the game for so long.

Orcin, I'd make a run at him up to his asking price and see how he pans out. Sounds like a low risk/high reward kind of play.