Orcin's Story

[Orcin]

2005 Continental Baseball Association World Series
Atlanta Flames (88-74) vs. Louisville Colonels (105-57)

The Atlanta Flames were #2 in the Patriot League in runs scored, #3 in batting average, #5 in home runs, and #1 in stolen bases. The main cog in their offense is CF Angel Quintero (.293./415/.493, 17 HR, 60 RBI, and 48 SB). They have three players over 20 home runs, but none over 30. Their pitching, at least the part that is healthy, is pretty weak after #1 starter Dale Dundee (14-9, 3.44) and #2 starter Mario Sandobel (18-10, 3.27). Atlanta did not play Louisville in the regular season.

GAME 1 @ Louisville: Conceicao Pontes (3-5) vs. Robert Westaway (21-4)

Atlanta’s leadoff hitter, RF Jesus Ortega, doubled to start the game, but was injured running the bases. Manuel Jaramillo threw out the pinch-runner at the plate to end the inning. Pontes made a real mess of the bottom of the second, including three walks, a wild pitch, and a hit batsman. Incredibly, the Colonels only managed to get a 2-0 lead, leaving the bases loaded. Atlanta got those runs back in the third, aided by Westaway’s throwing error on a sacrifice bunt attempt.

Westaway atoned for his error in the fourth with a RBI double and scored on Simon’s single, making the score 4-2 in favor of Louisville. Westaway kept the game right there, striking out the lefty Quintero in the top of the ninth before giving way to King for the save. Westaway was the Player of the Game with the following stat line: 8.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K, 115 pitches, and the game-winning RBI.

FINAL: Louisville 4, Atlanta 2
Louisville leads the series 1-0.


Jesus Ortega was listed as day-to-day after the game with groin soreness. His manager said he was “about 75%”.

[Orcin]

2005 Continental Baseball Association World Series
Atlanta Flames (88-74) vs. Louisville Colonels (105-57)

GAME 2 @ Louisville: Dale Dundee (14-9) vs. Ray Alexander (18-8)

A solo homer by Olivares put Louisville on the scoreboard first for the eighth time in nine post-season games. Both pitchers were sharp and it remained a 1-0 game until the sixth. Alexander got into some trouble and 2B Grant Williams tied the game with a base hit. Catcher Juan Alejandrez made it a full-blown crisis with a three-run homer to put Atlanta in front 4-1.

Simon got one run back with a solo home run in the bottom of the inning, which was only the second hit by Louisville. Dundee pitched out of trouble in the eighth and the game went to the bottom of the ninth with Atlanta still leading 4-2. Olivares led off with a single against Atlanta closer Ismael Carranza. Jaramillo struck out looking and Martinez grounded into a double play to end the game.

FINAL: Atlanta 4, Louisville 2
The series is tied at 1.

In other news…

Lexington SP Phil Thompson was named the AAA Outstanding Pitcher. It’s a nice parting gift.

Barry Werrett signed a contract to be a Class A pitching coach for the Nashville affiliate. He advertised himself as a “manager”, so I have no idea why he did not want to work for our organization as a manager at the same level for considerably more money than he accepted from them.

[Orcin]

2005 Continental Baseball Association World Series
Atlanta Flames (88-74) vs. Louisville Colonels (105-57)

GAME 3 @ Atlanta: Brian Wilson (14-12) vs. Mario Sandobel (18-10)

Chris Brown followed a double by Tom John with a blast down the right field line to give the Colonels a 2-0 lead in the top of the first inning. Brian Wilson continued the hot hitting by Louisville pitchers with a RBI double in the second, extending the lead to 3-0.

Atlanta put three hits together in the bottom of the second, including a double by 3B Ben Abbott, to cut the lead to 3-2. The Colonels came right back with two runs in the third on a RBI double by Olivares and a sacrifice fly. Atlanta loaded the bases with two out in the fourth, and pinch-hit for the pitcher with a left-handed batter. Byrne sent the pitching coach out for a conference. Whatever he said worked. Wilson induced a weak ground ball to end the threat and keep the score at 5-2.

Alejandrez homered in the sixth, cutting the margin to two at 5-3. Wilson struck out Quintero with pitch #105 to end the seventh, and was lifted for a pinch hitter (McGlone) in the top of the eighth. Wilson has likely thrown his last pitch for Louisville unless the series goes to seven games.

Consecutive singles by Dominguez, McGlone, and Simon along with some aggressive base running gave Louisville two insurance runs. Jones gave up another homer by Alejandrez in the eighth, making it a save situation for King. He converted it.

FINAL: Louisville 7, Atlanta 4
Louisville leads the series 2-1.

[Orcin]

2005 Continental Baseball Association World Series
Atlanta Flames (88-74) vs. Louisville Colonels (105-57)

GAME 4 @ Atlanta: Antonio Luna (10-4) vs. Jim Poole (9-14*)
* Poole was 6-0 for Atlanta after coming over in a late-July trade

Grant Williams gave Atlanta an early 3-0 lead with a bases-loaded double in the first inning. Jaramillo got Louisville back in the game with a two-run homer in the top of the second. Both pitchers settled down after that early flurry of scoring with the score at 3-2, until the Flames picked up an insurance run in the sixth. Poole and Luna turned the game over to the bullpens at that point.

The Atlanta bullpen shut down the Colonels offense and a pinch-hit grand slam by seldom-used backup catcher Russell Griffin in the eighth put the game out of reach.

FINAL: Atlanta 8, Louisville 2
The series is tied at 2.

[Sal, The Barber]

What is Atlanta doing starting a guy whose name Sal can't pronounce in Game #1?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

What is Atlanta doing starting a guy whose name Sal can't pronounce in Game #1?

I just don't have an answer for that one. I can't pronounce it either. Rest assured that I will never trade for him.

[Westheim]

Just when I wanted to have myself officially renamed Conceicao.

[SkyeWalker]

All the best for the rest of the series! Would have loved to see you face Charlotte but one can't choose his opponents

[Orcin]

2005 Continental Baseball Association World Series
Atlanta Flames (88-74) vs. Louisville Colonels (105-57)

GAME 5 @ Atlanta: Robert Westaway vs. Dale Dundee

A two-run double by Lorenzo Olivares put the Colonels in front in the top of the first inning. Atlanta’s Grant Williams did the exact same thing to tie the score at 2-2 in the bottom of the inning. Williams tried to score from second on a single but Olivares threw him out at the plate.

Atlanta took the lead in the bottom of the third with no outs on a double by Chaney and a RBI single by Quintero. It was becoming apparent that this would not be a typical dominant start by Westaway. Quintero stole second, advanced to third on a ground out, and scored on another ground out to make the score 4-2 after three innings.

Lucio Martinez, having a very quiet post-season, got one of those runs back with a solo homer in the fourth. However, Westaway hit the first batter in the bottom of the inning and former Colonels SS Raul Martinez made it 6-3 with a home run to dead center field. That was it for Westaway as Byrne pinch-hit for him to lead off the top of the fifth.

Garza and Trejo kept the game close, but the Colonels could not get anything done against Dundee. The series was headed back to Louisville and the Colonels would need to win both games.

FINAL: Atlanta 6, Louisville 3
Atlanta leads the series 3-2.

Atlanta RF/1B and leadoff hitter Jesus Ortega injured his wrist catching a fly ball and will miss the rest of the series.

[Orcin]

2005 Continental Baseball Association World Series
Atlanta Flames (88-74) vs. Louisville Colonels (105-57)

GAME 6 @ Louisville: Conceicao Pontes vs. Ray Alexander

The Colonels took a 1-0 lead in the first on singles by John and Brown and a sacrifice fly by Bland. Louisville left the bases loaded in the second as rain began to fall. The temperature was 48 but it felt much colder. Welcome to late October in Louisville.

Quintero walked to start the fourth and Alexander paid a little too much attention to him. Ronnie Brown blasted a fastball over the fat part of the plate into the right field seats to give the Flames a 2-1 advantage. The rain began to fall a little harder. Alexander loaded the bases with no outs and Byrne could not wait any longer. He had already been to the mound once, so the second trip was made to bring in Nathaniel Jones. Three strikeouts later, the Colonels were out of the inning with the score still 2-1 in favor of Atlanta.

The rain began to fall much harder in the fourth inning and the game was stopped for 39 minutes. When the game resumed, Chip Davidson took the mound for the Colonels. He kept the score at 2-1 until the sixth when Byrne was compelled to pinch-hit for him with Dominguez on second and two out. The pinch-hitter Jackson walked and Mario Chavez came on to walk Simon and load the bases. Chavez threw a wild pitch to the screen that scored Dominguez. John walked to load the bases again. Brown hit a grounder between first and second. Pablo Guzman (playing out of position in place of the injured Ortega) booted it, allowing the lead run to score. Bland struck out but the Colonels led 3-2.

Brooks came in to pitch the seventh and got into trouble via two walks and an error. He got Grant Williams to ground out with the bases loaded and the crowd exhaled. Trejo was called in to pitch to a string of left-handed batters in the eighth. He struck out the first two, but was squeezed on a full-count call and walked the third. A little dribbler scooted through the infield to put two men on and Ira Neal, a right-handed hitter with power, came in to pinch-hit. Byrne was on the top step of the dugout with O’Daniel warming up, but he left Trejo in to pitch to Neal. Trejo had been effective against right-handers all year, but not this time. Neal deposited a three-run homer into the left-field bleachers and Atlanta now led 5-3 going to the bottom of the eighth.

The Colonels went down 1-2-3 in the eighth. O’Daniel pitched a perfect ninth and the stage was set for a big comeback. Brown reached on another error by Guzman and Bland singled to put the tying run on base with no outs. That’s where they stayed as Atlanta closer Ismael Carranza got Olivares, Jaramillo, and Martinez to end the game.

FINAL: Atlanta 5, Louisville 3

Atlanta wins the series 4-2.

[Muskies]

Tough loss after blazing through the first two rounds. I thought you had it in the bag.

[Orcin]

2005 Game Score = 100

There were no big parties after the World Series this year. We did not win. However, the franchise goal is to field a competitive team every year while showing a financial profit. We were definitely competitive. The foundation for the future success of the ball club is solid, the minor league system has improved, the finances were brought back into line, and we provided several post-season home games for our loyal fans.

The Cooper family is certainly happy about the results. The team turned a profit of $25 million this year! I had the #22 payroll at $82 million and the #19 budget of $136 million. I based my payroll target, including personnel, on projected revenues (without playoffs) of $130 million less $30 million of other expenses. I came in well below that $100 million figure and we had several post-season home games. Hence, there was a huge profit, which is a well-deserved payback to the owner for some of those lean years. The $25 million cash profit that Henry took out of the franchise should provide a nice inheritance for his heirs someday.

The 2006 payroll will increase by roughly $10 million due to new contract extensions but I still intend to stay below $100 million including personnel costs. As usual, I will present a road map for the upcoming season’s roster in the next few posts. As the end of the season drew closer, I began to frame a plan in my mind. I use some general principles to guide my choices. These are the attributes that I value most in my players, besides stats and ratings: leadership and work ethic, defensive skill and versatility, consistency and a high floor, youth, durability, loyalty and low greed, and popularity. I think you will see these traits come into play as decisions are made about next year’s roster. Please be aware that most players won’t have all of these qualities, so we have to accept the bad with the good sometimes.

[beachbomer]

Has anyone went down and checked on Sal?

[Sal, The Barber]

Sal has the mint and Sal has the julep, so Sal is ok. Disappointed but ok. Sal understands that one cannot win every year. Sal knows this; he has been married 5 times.

And Sal has learned to enjoy the small moments. N. Jones comes on with the bases loaded and strikes out the side! That is Sal's guy.

[Orcin]

October 29, 2005 - The Off-Season Begins

Key dates:
November 8-12 – Award announcements
November 19 – Salary arbitration hearings
November 22 – Eligible players file for free agency
December 1 – “Rule 5” Draft
December 12-16 – Winter Meetings

Henry and Gordon Cooper informed me that the 2006 budget will be $146 million, a $10 million increase over 2005. I appreciate the extra room but frankly I have fallen into this trap before. I spend the extra money, show a loss, and the budget is cut. I will stick to my own personal spending guidelines, which will be well within the budget. Henry left $8 million cash in the coffers in case we need funds to facilitate trades or sign a free agent.

Before I move on to important off-season tasks, I want to update you on the personnel changes from around the league. The following personnel were fired after the season:

Federal League
Salt Lake City Bees (75-87, 9th): MGR Dave Riley

Patriot League
Boston Bombers (83-79, 5th): MGR John Rose
Washington Admirals (76-86, 12th): GM James Matthews
Nashville Tigers (74-88, 13th): GM Scott Rucker

The Detroit Titans were sold to local businessman and civic leader Duane Pierce. He told reporters that he could be characterized as “quite generous” in financial areas and tolerant toward his management. Detroit was already in “win now” mode, but I expect Pierce to accelerate the process after a disappointing 79-83 season.

Finally, former Colonels pitcher Ricardo Martinez retired at age 35 after a 6-22 season in Providence, walking away from the last two years of a guaranteed contract that would have paid him another $25 million. He was never happy there and probably regrets his decision to sign with a perennial loser.

[Orcin]

Preliminary 2006 Planning: Roster Analysis, and Depth Chart

The road map for next season’s active roster is below. There are good young players pushing their way into the picture, so hard decisions must be made for the roster and the starting lineup. Thus, this lengthy analysis will be broken into several posts.

Starting Pitchers: Brian Wilson still wants a nine-year contract but he has reduced his salary demand to “only” $171M ($19M/year). He is compensation-eligible so he will be offered arbitration. He will refuse and then I will audition several young starters in spring training to take his spot in the rotation. The early leaders are Pedro Castro and newly-acquired Juan Hernandez. Mike Yates, Bill Jackson, and Warren Corbishley are on the 40-man roster and will be given a chance, but there may not be as many spring innings for them. Corbishley is out of options so he might be shopped. Ron MacLain is a free agent won’t be offered a contract.

Robert Westaway is signed for two more seasons at $15M/year, a bargain for the likely Federal League Outstanding Pitcher in the prime (age 29) of his career. Antonio Luna is only 24 and should bounce back from his injury-shortened season to be a strong #2 in the rotation. He is signed for another four years at an average salary of $4.5M/year. Ray Alexander could be the #3/4 starter on almost any staff in the CBA. He will be 27 next season and has four years left on his contract at an average salary of $2.6M/year.

That brings us to the second lefty, Chip Davidson. He was projected by BNN to be one of the top five starters in the league in 2005 but that didn’t happen. He stayed healthy and reached 200 innings for the first time in his career, but he struggled early and again late. He finished with a 4.31 ERA, but his 3.64 FIP, 2.9 K/BB ratio, and 1.27 WHIP say that the ERA may be misleading. Davidson is arbitration-eligible this year. It might be smart to pay the award and see another year of work before signing him to a long-term deal, but what if he has that breakout season? Davidson’s greed rating is high and his loyalty is very low. The price may never be lower than now.

Bullpen: There are far fewer questions here than last year. George King had 37 saves and a 2.50 ERA. He is the closer until he proves unreliable. He will be 29 and is signed for two more seasons at $2.4M/year.

Brooks and Jones is not a country music act; they are the setup men. Edgardo Garza and Jesus Trejo are the primary middle men. All of these guys had fine seasons and none of them are qualified for arbitration yet. Sweet!

Reliable veteran David O’Daniel has another year on his $3.4M/year contract and we hold a team option for 2007. Leonard Sherman leads a whole bunch of young relievers that will compete for the final spot in the bullpen. Micah Reed and Jason Watson are out of options so they may join Corbishley on the trading block. The bullpen is definitely an area of strength and organizational depth.

Next: Position Players

[soxfan34]

Great work, keep it up! You may have already stated this, but do you sim one week at a time during the season?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by soxfan34

You may have already stated this, but do you sim one week at a time during the season?

I play one day at a time. I manage the first game of each series and quick-sim the other two or three games, but I never sim multiple days without checking the transactions, waiver wire, etc.

[Orcin]

Preliminary 2006 Planning: Roster Analysis, and Depth Chart, part 2

I will make extensive use of the “Positional Strength by Positions” report here. I find this to be a very useful tool for evaluating my players in the context of the league.

Catcher: Duncan Bland is the CBA’s #1 catcher. He will be 26 next year. He is signed to a four-year contract at an average salary of $6M/year. His career stat line over 389 games is .283/.356/.493, and that is about what you should expect in the future. He is above average defensively, and might win a Gold Glove on overall reputation. He plays 135 games per year and could probably play more except I insist on resting him.

The backup catcher is Troy Daniels. He has the uncanny ability to play once per week and still produce when needed. He is a great defensive catcher too. He will be 30 next year and there is nothing behind him. This is a risk but there is nothing sensible to do about it. It doesn’t make sense to invest in a top backup catcher to sit behind Bland. I have invested draft picks in catchers but none have developed so far. I will keep trying.

First Base: Chris Brown is rated #3 at his position. He is a solid major league player with ratings of 6-8 in all categories and no weakness. He will be 29 next season with two years remaining on a contract at $7M/year. He is a switch-hitter, but much better as a left-handed batter. His career stat line over 758 games is .296/.385/.563 with 193 HR.

I do not have a backup first baseman on the 40-man roster. If Brown were injured, my best solution would be Lucio Martinez at first and someone else at third. I really want a backup 1B/3B with power (right-handed) to strengthen the bench. I continue trying to develop a replacement for Brown but I have no 1B prospects close to the majors yet.

Second Base: The report says Mariano Gonzalez is the #8 second baseman in the CBA, but I am not even sure that he is the best on our team. Gonzalez missed most of the 2003 and 2005 seasons with injuries, and Tom John took advantage of his absence last year hitting .298 with 28 doubles and 13 SB. John lacks the power of Gonzalez but he makes better contact and he is a classic #2 hitter with a .358 OBP and only 19 K’s. Defensively, he had a ZR of +2.5 and efficiency of 1.01 with a .984 FPCT (nine errors).

Gonzalez is going to arbitration again with a $3.4M estimate based solely on potential. The money-ball play would be to trade Gonzalez, but his potential is alluring. John is very capable at the position and he is not arbitration-eligible until 2007. I have quality middle infield prospects in the system and there could be multiple candidates pushing Gonzalez/John for the job in 2007. Surely one of them could be a capable reserve for John if Gonzalez were traded. Still, the Gonzalez player card is like a siren song, telling me to keep him and play him.

Next: Other Side of the Infield

[Laser]

Do you set the lineups and handle pinch hitters and relief pitchers for the games you play out or do you let the manager handle these options?