Baseball Beliefs - Page 3

crazyhorsejohnny · 02-23-2005, 01:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aadik

That's a good one. Seriously- what's wrong with you ? So far, you've managed to argue Morgan's word is gospel, that baseball is not beautiful because you didnt think (and I use the word lightly) so, and in general, what exactly ? If we pick an objective subject and you want to argue that, by all means lets (like the inane "Robinson is the best" arguement- or the tired crap about Catcher's ERA ) - anything else, don't bother trying.

And yes, that is a very cute kid.

you guys are doin the arguing. All I said is Brooks Robinson is widely regarged as the best defensive 3b of all time. And Morgan has been in the game long enough that sometimes what he says could be true. He probably knows a little bit more about baseball than you & I. ANd to call baseball beautifull, sorry I can't see it.

As for what's wrong with me, nothing but &@#(^*#$#%%$% )(&*& would help.

Thanks for the compliment for my son.

sebastian0622 · 02-23-2005, 01:46 AM

What I believe in:
Stats
-Batting average and OPS.
-The forgotten value of the double
-Sacrifice bunts from the bottom third of the order
-WHIP
-K/9
-Sv %
-Hold

Concepts
-Clutch
-Leadership
-Clubhouse atmosphere
-Pinch running and/or pinch hitting specialists as the #25 roster guy
-Opposite field hits
-The two pitch reliever
-The ridiculous defensive shift (Thome, Bonds)

What I don't believe in
Stats
-Pitcher W-L as the primary indicator
-Range Factor
-Errors (I'd rather have a guy get to 100 balls and screw 40 of them up than get to just 60, screw 20 up, and watch 40 go for hits--hence why Furcal is better defensively than his error total)
-RBI totals
-Outfield assists (some OF's have stronger arms, but this stat doesn't measure that)

Concepts
-Station-to-station with power hitting is the only way to win in modern baseball
-Putting defensive liabilities in the infield to help the offense
-Strict pitch counts
-LOOGYs (one-batter relief specialists, usually lefties)
-Pulling a starter who has pitched well to get the closer a save
-First baseman have to be lefties
-Diving catches make gold gloves (if someone else could have gotten to the ball without diving, he's a better fielder jackass)
-Bunting for a hit, unless he is really, really good at it

crazyhorsejohnny · 02-23-2005, 01:49 AM

I like your concepts category.

cknox0723 · 02-23-2005, 02:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

Concepts
-Diving catches make gold gloves (if someone else could have gotten to the ball without diving, he's a better fielder jackass)

Diving catches gave me a very limited high school baseball career, so I suppose I should be lucky that coaches don't normally agree.

Your "first basemen don't have to be lefty" comment prompted my neurons for a hypothetical. Much has been made about the supposed lack of value of defense -- Eric Walker and how it's only 5% of the game? I don't necessarily believe that...but say some crazy statheadzz get in charge of a team and take it to an extremist degree. And if a bat's good enough, we see left-handed second basemen or third basemen? Whaddya think...true talent or sack of crap?

EDIT: Obviously, Sebastian, you wouldn't agree. I don't know that I would, either, it was just an attempt to hijack the thread.

sebastian0622 · 02-23-2005, 02:28 AM

Well I really don't think you could pull off a lefty 3B at any level higher than high school. At 2B or SS...hmmm...I mean, if the guy has great range, soft hands, and can put up great numbers on offense, he just might be worth putting at 2B or SS. Especially with the decline of speed in lineups--how many guys would be safe at first because a lefty 2B has to make a split-second shift in footwork that would have been out with a righty 2B? Probably not too many.

Jason Moyer · 02-23-2005, 04:26 AM

I believe that there will always be a handful of player attributes that are overvalued, and many many more that are undervaled.

I believe that OBP and K/9 are going to be so prized in the near future that smart GM's will build teams around young defense-oriented players and pitchers who don't walk anybody.

Carlton · 02-23-2005, 05:30 AM

Too bad Ed Wade isn't one of em eh Jason?

We did good this offseason though? right?

(chirp, chirp)

ihatenames · 02-23-2005, 07:09 AM

Beliefs:

AVG: I've been at war with myself over this one and OBP. I have flipflopped at lot on this issue. But i think i've come to a conclusion. I firmly believe in AVG over OBP and to a lesser extent OPS. I believe firmly that a walk is not as good as a hit. I'd rather a guy have a high AVG with a relatively low OPB, than a guy with an average AVG and a relatively high OPB.

SB: based on stats, stealing may not be worth the reward. However, speaking strictly as a fan. I've love stealing and its one of the most exciting plays in sports. Lets not forget baseball is entertainment. I'd love to bring back steals.

Sacrifice Bunts: I like small ball. Stay out of the double play.

WHIP: I don't think there is a better stat to judge a pitchers performace. When used with ERA you can get a pretty good idea how good a pitcher can keep guys off base and how well he can keep them from scoring.

Clutch: I don't believe this is measurable but it does exist. Everyone has an optimal level of arousal. Someone who is easily stimulated will perform at their optimal level without much stimulation. Someone who is harder to stimulate will perform at their optimal with more stimulation.(Which could be a high pressure situation, or something requiring more focus.) So a player with a low level of arousal will likely perfrom worse in a pressure situation due to overstimulation. A player who has a high level of arousal will likely perform better in pressure situations because his optimal level of arousal is being met. In normal situations that same player will not perform as well as they do in clutch situations because they are understimulated. Everyone has their own level.

Do not believe

Shortening your swing with two strikes and a runner on first with one or no outs. In this situation i'd rather a player take a full swing and hit the ball hard. In other words i'd rather a guy hit the ball hard as opposed to protecting the plate and in my opinion increasing the chance of hitting a weak groundball for a double play. In this situation a strike out is better than a double play.

W-L records for pitchers. However after seeing RJ win total last year on that horrible team i may have to research this a bit more.

OPS as the end all position player rating I think its a good statistic, but it undervalues players who are good at getting hits and capable of swiping their extra bases.

Carlton · 02-23-2005, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ihatenames

Do not believe

Shortening your swing with two strikes and a runner on first with one or no outs. In this situation i'd rather a player take a full swing and hit the ball hard. In other words i'd rather a guy hit the ball hard as opposed to protecting the plate and in my opinion increasing the chance of hitting a weak groundball for a double play. In this situation a strike out is better than a double play.

W-L records for pitchers. However after seeing RJ win total last year on that horrible team i may have to research this a bit more.

OPS as the end all position player rating I think its a good statistic, but it undervalues players who are good at getting hits and capable of swiping their extra bases.

Shortening the swing, depends on the hitter...would you like Tony Gwynn to gap it with a short swing? I would

W-L records, most of the time it IS crap, but for elite pitchers it is boggling how they win despite the odds...you think Randy Johnson was good? Look at Cy Young 1901-1907

Yea, OPS kills a guy like Ichiro and one of my favorites Mark Loretta

ctorg · 02-23-2005, 10:01 AM

I believe there's no one true method for valuing players, at least not one that has been discovered. I believe not making an out is the most important thing a batter can do. I believe in a lot of the stuff I read about in Moneyball, simply because I believe in science as a good way of reaching conclusions. I understand that if a particular statistic is more correlated with winning games or scoring runs, it is more likely to be of value.

I believe - and this is a big belief of mine - that being able to come up with the best situation-specific strategy is more important than having a consistent overall strategy in a game. In other words, knowing the best thing to do in any given situation is more important than general ideas like "stealing is bad".

I don't believe most of the old superstitions about the game, which are being disproven (to me) by new ideas. I don't believe there is only one way to win, or even necessarily a best way to win. I don't believe in sticking to old and comfortable ideas because they feel right.

Jason Moyer · 02-23-2005, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carlton

Too bad Ed Wade isn't one of em eh Jason?

We did good this offseason though? right?

(chirp, chirp)

I'm starting a campaign to become the Phillies GM. I'm not entirely kidding.

02-23-2005, 04:26 AM	#46
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,074	I believe that there will always be a handful of player attributes that are overvalued, and many many more that are undervaled. I believe that OBP and K/9 are going to be so prized in the near future that smart GM's will build teams around young defense-oriented players and pitchers who don't walk anybody. __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech

02-23-2005, 05:30 AM	#47
Carlton Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 3,765	Too bad Ed Wade isn't one of em eh Jason? We did good this offseason though? right? (chirp, chirp) __________________ "I am at that stage of my life where I keep myself out of arguments. I am 100% self sufficient spiritually, emotionally & financially. Even if you say 1+1=5, you are ABSOLUTELY CORRECT. Enjoy!"

02-23-2005, 07:09 AM	#48
ihatenames Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Rockford Posts: 2,534	Beliefs: AVG: I've been at war with myself over this one and OBP. I have flipflopped at lot on this issue. But i think i've come to a conclusion. I firmly believe in AVG over OBP and to a lesser extent OPS. I believe firmly that a walk is not as good as a hit. I'd rather a guy have a high AVG with a relatively low OPB, than a guy with an average AVG and a relatively high OPB. SB: based on stats, stealing may not be worth the reward. However, speaking strictly as a fan. I've love stealing and its one of the most exciting plays in sports. Lets not forget baseball is entertainment. I'd love to bring back steals. Sacrifice Bunts: I like small ball. Stay out of the double play. WHIP: I don't think there is a better stat to judge a pitchers performace. When used with ERA you can get a pretty good idea how good a pitcher can keep guys off base and how well he can keep them from scoring. Clutch: I don't believe this is measurable but it does exist. Everyone has an optimal level of arousal. Someone who is easily stimulated will perform at their optimal level without much stimulation. Someone who is harder to stimulate will perform at their optimal with more stimulation.(Which could be a high pressure situation, or something requiring more focus.) So a player with a low level of arousal will likely perfrom worse in a pressure situation due to overstimulation. A player who has a high level of arousal will likely perform better in pressure situations because his optimal level of arousal is being met. In normal situations that same player will not perform as well as they do in clutch situations because they are understimulated. Everyone has their own level. Do not believe Shortening your swing with two strikes and a runner on first with one or no outs. In this situation i'd rather a player take a full swing and hit the ball hard. In other words i'd rather a guy hit the ball hard as opposed to protecting the plate and in my opinion increasing the chance of hitting a weak groundball for a double play. In this situation a strike out is better than a double play. W-L records for pitchers. However after seeing RJ win total last year on that horrible team i may have to research this a bit more. OPS as the end all position player rating I think its a good statistic, but it undervalues players who are good at getting hits and capable of swiping their extra bases. __________________ New Album coming soon! Last edited by ihatenames; 02-23-2005 at 07:12 AM.

02-23-2005, 10:01 AM	#50
ctorg Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Queens, NY Posts: 9,848	I believe there's no one true method for valuing players, at least not one that has been discovered. I believe not making an out is the most important thing a batter can do. I believe in a lot of the stuff I read about in Moneyball, simply because I believe in science as a good way of reaching conclusions. I understand that if a particular statistic is more correlated with winning games or scoring runs, it is more likely to be of value. I believe - and this is a big belief of mine - that being able to come up with the best situation-specific strategy is more important than having a consistent overall strategy in a game. In other words, knowing the best thing to do in any given situation is more important than general ideas like "stealing is bad". I don't believe most of the old superstitions about the game, which are being disproven (to me) by new ideas. I don't believe there is only one way to win, or even necessarily a best way to win. I don't believe in sticking to old and comfortable ideas because they feel right. __________________ My music "When the trees blow back and forth, that's what makes the wind." - Steven Wright Fjord emena pancreas thorax fornicate marmalade morpheme proteolysis smaxa cabana offal srue vitriol grope hallelujah lentils

02-23-2005, 01:46 AM	#42
sebastian0622 Banned Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 3,465	What I believe in: Stats -Batting average and OPS. -The forgotten value of the double -Sacrifice bunts from the bottom third of the order -WHIP -K/9 -Sv % -Hold Concepts -Clutch -Leadership -Clubhouse atmosphere -Pinch running and/or pinch hitting specialists as the #25 roster guy -Opposite field hits -The two pitch reliever -The ridiculous defensive shift (Thome, Bonds) What I don't believe in Stats -Pitcher W-L as the primary indicator -Range Factor -Errors (I'd rather have a guy get to 100 balls and screw 40 of them up than get to just 60, screw 20 up, and watch 40 go for hits--hence why Furcal is better defensively than his error total) -RBI totals -Outfield assists (some OF's have stronger arms, but this stat doesn't measure that) Concepts -Station-to-station with power hitting is the only way to win in modern baseball -Putting defensive liabilities in the infield to help the offense -Strict pitch counts -LOOGYs (one-batter relief specialists, usually lefties) -Pulling a starter who has pitched well to get the closer a save -First baseman have to be lefties -Diving catches make gold gloves (if someone else could have gotten to the ball without diving, he's a better fielder jackass) -Bunting for a hit, unless he is really, really good at it

02-23-2005, 01:49 AM	#43
crazyhorsejohnny All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Ottawa Posts: 818	I like your concepts category.

02-23-2005, 02:28 AM	#45
sebastian0622 Banned Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 3,465	Well I really don't think you could pull off a lefty 3B at any level higher than high school. At 2B or SS...hmmm...I mean, if the guy has great range, soft hands, and can put up great numbers on offense, he just might be worth putting at 2B or SS. Especially with the decline of speed in lineups--how many guys would be safe at first because a lefty 2B has to make a split-second shift in footwork that would have been out with a righty 2B? Probably not too many.