Is DiMaggio's Streak Truly Unbreakable? - Page 4

JamesMowery · 05-28-2015, 08:01 PM

I brought Edmundo "Cool Papa" Flores' 39-game hitting streak to an end in my Virginia League Baseball fantasy league.

If I had some cash, I'd snag him up.

In the end, however, the team put me out of playoff contention in the end of the season, so it was all so bittersweet.

bwburke94 · 05-29-2015, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

There are actually 2 separate records, one for single-season hitting streak and one for multi-season streaks. So to erase DiMaggio from the record book, you'd have to do it in one season.

This is where the confusion over the NL record came from. Pete Rose had 44, tying Willie Keeler's single-season record, but Keeler's streak came in the first 44 games of the season and he had a hit in the last game of the previous season, making his multi-season streak 45.

The multi-season streak is the one that "counts" here. Doing the math, in an average environment, there is a 0.0000004% chance of the record being broken in any single game, so given 150 games in a season the chance is 0.0000648% per player per season.

italyprof · 05-29-2015, 08:17 PM

Wow. Same league, random debut, using the Spritze db, as I just posted on about Nap Lajoie in our inaugural season. It is now our second season, 1922 and Ty Cobb started a hitting streak just days after Lajoie. Cobb's ran to 40 games before he got stopped and Lajoie hit 50 games before finally going hitless. 50 ! After 130 games now, we have 3 .400 hitters: Cobb leading the league with an unbelievable .478, Lajoie at .432 and Jim O'Rourke at .412. These are all in the American League. In the NL where my Robins play, Keith Hernandez leads the league at .372. So while, high, no indication of numbers off the charts there. Barry Bonds has 22 homers to lead the majors with most of the season done. So only the AL averages of those two and their hit streaks are outlyers.

italyprof · 05-29-2015, 08:31 PM

Cobb ended up batting .486 ! Lajoie hit .422 and O'Rourke .420. Derek Jeter led the NL with .374. So we have some nice unbreakable ever records in the early years of the league as we go forward. My team ended up dead last again, but I expected that. Greg Maddux had the best ERA with 2.54, and Ed Seward led the NL with 2.76. So relatively normal for the 1920s as league bests. But three very high averages with two amazing hit streaks and a near .500 average (in 684 PA) to set the record.

orwell · 05-30-2015, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

It is certainly breakable. Tough one to break, but certainly feasible.

There are records that are a lot more unbreakable than the Streak. Like 60 games won by a pitcher in 1 season. Or 513 strikeouts by a pitcher in 1 season. Or 75 complete games. Or 50 assists by an outfielder. or.....the list goes on.

You're right that those records are more unbreakable, but don't you think that is the case for different reasons? The opportunity simply doesn't exist today to reach those pitching milestones; no GM would dare allow a pitcher to accrue enough IPs. I guess the assists record is in a different class. I'm not familiar with the history behind that insane record.

Modern game tactics haven't affected the opportunity to break the streak record nearly as much, which I think makes it more impressive if it stands.

Questdog · 05-30-2015, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orwell

You're right that those records are more unbreakable, but don't you think that is the case for different reasons? The opportunity simply doesn't exist today to reach those pitching milestones; no GM would dare allow a pitcher to accrue enough IPs. I guess the assists record is in a different class. I'm not familiar with the history behind that insane record.

Modern game tactics haven't affected the opportunity to break the streak record nearly as much, which I think makes it more impressive if it stands.

I did not mean to imply that those records I mentioned were more impressive, just more unbreakable....

Back in the day when the baseballs were mushy, the outfielders played just a little deeper than a second baseman does nowadays when they put the shift on for a slow-footed lefty slugger. So they had plenty of opportunities to throw runners out, even for force plays.

MrWideFrame · 05-31-2015, 01:36 AM

My man Nicol Valdes had a 59 game hitting steak. I could not believe it. Too bad he can't stay healthy.

Painmantle · 06-10-2015, 07:12 PM

Arriba! Arriba!

43 and still going!!! This streak was the last 31 games of 2015 and carries on into the first 2 weeks of the 2016 season of my Historical Teams Random Debut Multi-Player league

Matt Arnold · 06-10-2015, 08:26 PM

I made a player who was maxed out in skill, and his best hitting streak was 55 games in a season in which he hit .540 (a few years later I made him also be a star pitcher, and he won both the batting and pitching triple crowns in the same season). Now I likely made him walk too much (200 walks a season), but I don't think that matters too much.

There, I cut down his walks, and he got 380 hits in a season (85 HR). Max hitting streak? 32 games. Maybe managing him myself I could have done better, but mathematically you're going to go hitless one out of every 10-20 games.

06-10-2015, 07:12 PM	#68
Painmantle Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Greenfield ,IN Posts: 3,053	Arriba! Arriba! 43 and still going!!! This streak was the last 31 games of 2015 and carries on into the first 2 weeks of the 2016 season of my Historical Teams Random Debut Multi-Player league __________________ “As soon as I got out there I felt a strange relationship with the pitcher's mound. It was as if I'd been born out there. Pitching just felt like the most natural thing in the world. Striking out batters was easy.” -Babe Ruth “Ruth made a grave mistake when he gave up pitching. Working once a week, he might have lasted a long time and become a great star.”-Tris Speaker My Dynasties The Beantown Bambino

05-28-2015, 08:01 PM	#61
JamesMowery Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2015 Location: Norfolk, Virginia Posts: 85	I brought Edmundo "Cool Papa" Flores' 39-game hitting streak to an end in my Virginia League Baseball fantasy league. If I had some cash, I'd snag him up. In the end, however, the team put me out of playoff contention in the end of the season, so it was all so bittersweet.

05-29-2015, 08:17 PM	#63
italyprof All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 1,032	Wow. Same league, random debut, using the Spritze db, as I just posted on about Nap Lajoie in our inaugural season. It is now our second season, 1922 and Ty Cobb started a hitting streak just days after Lajoie. Cobb's ran to 40 games before he got stopped and Lajoie hit 50 games before finally going hitless. 50 ! After 130 games now, we have 3 .400 hitters: Cobb leading the league with an unbelievable .478, Lajoie at .432 and Jim O'Rourke at .412. These are all in the American League. In the NL where my Robins play, Keith Hernandez leads the league at .372. So while, high, no indication of numbers off the charts there. Barry Bonds has 22 homers to lead the majors with most of the season done. So only the AL averages of those two and their hit streaks are outlyers.

05-29-2015, 08:31 PM	#64
italyprof All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 1,032	Cobb ended up batting .486 ! Lajoie hit .422 and O'Rourke .420. Derek Jeter led the NL with .374. So we have some nice unbreakable ever records in the early years of the league as we go forward. My team ended up dead last again, but I expected that. Greg Maddux had the best ERA with 2.54, and Ed Seward led the NL with 2.76. So relatively normal for the 1920s as league bests. But three very high averages with two amazing hit streaks and a near .500 average (in 684 PA) to set the record.

05-31-2015, 01:36 AM	#67
MrWideFrame Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 224	My man Nicol Valdes had a 59 game hitting steak. I could not believe it. Too bad he can't stay healthy.

06-10-2015, 08:26 PM	#69
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 16,254	I made a player who was maxed out in skill, and his best hitting streak was 55 games in a season in which he hit .540 (a few years later I made him also be a star pitcher, and he won both the batting and pitching triple crowns in the same season). Now I likely made him walk too much (200 walks a season), but I don't think that matters too much. There, I cut down his walks, and he got 380 hits in a season (85 HR). Max hitting streak? 32 games. Maybe managing him myself I could have done better, but mathematically you're going to go hitless one out of every 10-20 games.