Orcin's Brave New World

[NYY #23]

Looks like Aldrete is holding a grudge!

[gehrig38]

Originally Posted by Orcin

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants
The Giants are predicted to finish last in the N.L. West after sliding to fourth-place at 77-85 in 2020. The pitching staff is led by Julio Tehran (14-11, 3.89), although Kyle Smith (4-7, 4.82) will be pitching the opener. Closer Colby Suggs was third in the N.L. with 40 saves last season. Veteran catcher Buster Posey (.259-31-90) will be joined in the lineup by a new keystone combination, 2B Matt Cerda (.293-9-76) and SS Francisco Lindor (.283-9-53), signed as free agents in the off-season.

The Giants play at AT&T Park, which seats 41,503 and favors pitchers. The Giants are managed by former Cardinals bench coach Mike Aldrete. (His first major-league game as a manager will be against his old team.)


April 5, 2021: G001 (0-1)
Attachment 322667
Star: SF SP Kyle Smith 8 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Odorizzi struggled through six innings, allowing nine hits.


April 6, 2021: G002 (1-1, 1 GB, 3rd)
Attachment 322668
Star: STL SS Hector Rios 4-4, DBL, 2 RBI, 2 RS
Sano and Almora each had 3 hits for St. Louis.
Perdomo 6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K


April 7, 2021: G003 (1-2, 2 GB, 3rd)
Attachment 322669
Star: STL RF Oscar Taveras 3-4, HR, RBI
Pineda gave up all 5 ER in 3.2 IP. Lamb threw 3.1 innings of scoreless relief.


April 8, 2021: OFF
All five of our players cleared waivers and were assigned to Memphis (AAA).

Ok now you're just showing off I love this format...

[Orcin]

Contract Issues

The high-priority extensions are Crawford and Alfaro, but both of these players fit into next year’s budget at their arbitration estimates. I may have bigger issues.

Crawford is still two years away and I don’t think his demands will become club-friendly until his walk year. He isn’t interested in a bargain buyout of his two remaining years of arbitration eligibility and first year of free agency. He wants 6 years at $22M. He is worth somewhere in the neighborhood of the 6 years at $18M that Arizona just paid free agent SS Corey Seager. I would rather just pay $11-12M for next year in arbitration because I have some concerns about Crawford’s spotty injury history.

Alfaro is a similar case, but with only one year of arbitration remaining and a slightly cheaper price tag. He is far more durable and much harder to replace. Alfaro currently wants 5 years at $18M. Maybe his demands will soften somewhere during the season. If not, I can live with going to arbitration and paying him $9-10M for one more year while I sort out the rest of my issues.

T-Mick also has only one year of arbitration remaining but he is third on the priority list behind these two stars. Closer Rex Brothers has a player option for $8.6M next season, and my calculations will assume that he exercises it. If not, I will have to replace him at similar money anyway. Even with all of this to ponder, I have bigger issues.

The following eight contracts (with current salary) will expire after this season: Wong ($10M), Snyder ($7M), Hald ($6.5M), Wacha ($5.5M), Miller ($4.5M), Perdomo ($4M), Lamb ($3.2M), and Montgomery ($3M). The total salary of these players is $43.7M.

Assuming that my total payroll remains at the same level as this year, I will have $20M to sign all of these players. So I obviously must dump some payroll before next season; however, the players that go don’t have to come from this list. For example, SP Michael Pineda is on the books for $7M next year. LF Dutch Deol is estimated at nearly $6M in arbitration. That’s $13M that could be applied to other players. The high-priority task at hand is to identify the players that should be retained from among this group of non-core players.

So who are those core players, you ask? That’s a fluid list, but right now they are Taveras, Odorizzi, Alfaro, Crawford, T-Mick, and Jones (in that order). Wong could end up as part of that group, but right now I think that he can be replaced. Sano might be in there too eventually, but he is club-controlled and not a worry today.

Sadly, there is only one pitcher on that list, and that needs to change. Whoops, now I need to re-allocate even more money. Don’t forget that the focus is “Win Now”. The project to rebuild the farm system starts with the draft in June. In the meantime, the goal is to build the strongest roster possible for this year within the $140M payroll budget. Beating the Dodgers, who have a voracious payroll, will be a challenge (i.e. fun).

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals (1-2) @ Atlanta Braves (1-2)
The Braves should be a strong contender in the N.L. East after winning the division at 92-70 in 2020. Atlanta has the #3 payroll in MLB. Slugging 1B Miguel Cabrera will miss this series with a bruised wrist. Closer Craig Kimbrel is one of the best (46 saves and a 1.53 ERA in 2020). The Braves play at Cobb County Stadium, which seats 50,096 and plays as a slight pitcher’s park. Atlanta is managed by Jerry Narron (since 2017).


April 9, 2021: G004 (2-2, 2 GB, 3rd)

Star: STL SP Kyle Hald 6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 10 K
We had two runners caught stealing and are still looking for our first stolen base.


April 10, 2021: G005 (3-2, 2 GB, 3rd)

Star: STL RF Oscar Taveras 4-5, DBL, TPL, 2 RBI, 3 RS
Rosenthal 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K; Michael Wacha struggled in the mop-up role.
Kolten Wong had three doubles. Atlanta now has six errors in the two games.


April 11, 2021: G006 (4-2, 1 GB, 3rd)

Star: ATL LF Yoenis Cespedes 2-5, 2 solo homers
Odorizzi 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 10 K

The Cardinals pulled off a triple play in the third! Jones was playing in for a bunt with runners on first and second, no outs. He caught a line drive instead, and the Redbirds were able to go around the horn to nail the runners.


Players of the Week:
AL: CLE C Mike Rodriguez 11-25, 1 HR, 7 RBI
NL: CHN RF Etrit Halil 13-21, 3 HR, 7 RBI

[Orcin]

Philadelphia Phillies (2-4) @ St. Louis Cardinals (4-2)
The Phillies have two of the biggest stars in baseball. SP Neftali Felix (12-11, 3.34 in 2020) is the third highest-paid MLB player at $22M. CF Bryce Harper (.292-32-101 in 2020) has 3 MVP awards and he is only 28 years old. We will be playing at home in Busch Stadium, which seats 46,861 and favors pitchers. The Phillies are managed by Lee Stevens (since 2019).


April 12, 2021: G007 (4-3, 2 GB, 3rd)

Star: PHI DH Leonardo Villanueva 3-5, DBL, 3 RBI, 2 RS
Perdomo 4 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 0 K
The wind was blowing out to center at 10 mph.


April 13, 2021: G008 (5-3, 1 GB, 3rd)

Star: STL CF Albert Almora 3-3, 2 DBL, 3 RBI, BB, RS
Pineda 6.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 10 K – was going well until he hit 90+ pitches


April 14, 2021: G009 (6-3, 1 GB, 3rd)

Star: Knox walk-off 2-run HR
It was hard to keep the ball in the park today with the spring wind blowing out at 10 mph again.
The Phillies had back-to-back-to-back homers in the first.


April 15, 2021: OFF


Top Prospects
I have mentioned before that our only top prospect is AAA SP Gerald Williams. SP Jose Flores is also has high potential, but he was on the major league roster all last year and thus no longer listed among the prospects. I have also mentioned that the cupboard is rather bare beyond those two, but the problem is even worse than I imagined.

I released more than 50 aging non-prospects from the minor league system after taking over, and I signed a lot of free agents to fill the minor league rosters. Amazingly, 8 of our top 20 prospects are minor league free agents that I picked up in this signing spree. There are only four pitchers in the top 20, so this will be a priority in my first draft class, and in any trades executed to dump salary.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals (6-3) @ New York Mets (7-3)
The last winning season for the Mets was 2015. They are playing well so far this season because their starting pitching, led by Tim Lincecum, has been excellent. Their best player is 2018 ROY, 2B Brett Lowe. SS Manny Machado missed some time with injuries last season after signing a big free agent contract with the Mets. The team is paying $10M to bench-warming CF Peter Bourjos. The Mets play at Citi Field, which seats 45,000 and favors pitchers. The Mets are managed by Dave Martinez (since 2016).


April 16, 2021: G010 (6-4, 2 GB, 3rd)

Star: STL RF Oscar Taveras 4-6, DBL, HR, RBI
Rosenthal had another decent outing: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K


April 17, 2021: G011 (7-4, 1 GB, 2nd)

Star: STL RF Oscar Taveras 3-4, 2 DBL, HR, 2 RBI, 2 RS
Odorizzi 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, W (2-1, 3.79 ERA)


April 18, 2021: G012 (7-5, 1 GB, 3rd)

Star: NYN SS Manny Machado 3-5, TPL, walk-off HR, 3 RBI
Knox played LF because he was 4-17 lifetime vs. Mets starter Montoya.


Standings



Players of the Week:
AL: TBA 1B Steve Ulmer 11-24, 5 HR, 10 RBI
NL: STL RF Oscar Taveras 10-29, 4 HR, 9 RBI


Roster Concerns
T-Mick comes back next week, and someone will have to go to make room on the active roster. Snyder is hitting .271 and could be handy off the bench. I also want to keep him around until I am sure that T-Mick can handle first base (although I am not really worried about that). You is probably the odd man out but he will have to clear waivers.

Assuming that 12 pitchers are carried, the ideal roster composition for position players in a DH league is 8 starters in the field, full-time DH, backup catcher, utility infielder, fourth outfielder that can play all three spots, and one wild card that pinch-hit for a weak-hitting starter in a key spot. Snyder fills that last spot better than You (or you).

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals (7-5) @ San Diego Padres (7-6)
The Padres finished 92-70 last season, but they were a distant second behind the powerhouse Dodgers in the N.L. West. A dominant young pitching staff is led by 26-year-old lefty Alpik Karganian and elite closer Stan Gray. Star 3B Travis Brien (2019 N.L. Rookie of the Year) is joined in the lineup by veteran RF Jason Heyward and C Yasmani Grandal. The Padres play at Petco Park, which seats 42,445 and plays as an extreme pitcher’s park. The Padres are managed by three-time N.L. Manager of the Year Dusty Wathan (since 2015).


April 19, 2021: OFF
The lack of a short left-hander in the bullpen has been an issue in the early part of the season. Brothers doesn’t count because he is the closer. Lamb is a converted starter and doesn’t have strikeout stuff. I need a guy that can come in in the late innings and get a tough left-handed hitter out, preferably on strikes. Former closer Aroldis Chapman is available as a free agent, but he is injury-prone and his lack of control is an issue.


April 20, 2021: G013 (7-6, 1.5 GB, 3rd)

Star: SD 3B Travis Brien 2-5, walk-off HR
I really missed having a left-handed specialist in the bullpen during this game.


Cardinals Need a Friend

Friend has great stuff with movement. His career stats vs. left-handed batters: 12.2 K/9, 4.5 K/BB, 2.03 FIP, and 1.23 WHIP. Syndergaard is a former starter that I signed to a minor league contract in the spring as insurance. He was valuable because he was not on the 40-man roster, but he was the most expendable player that Boston would accept. John Lamb was waived and DFA to make room for Friend on the roster.


April 21, 2021: G014 (7-7, 1.5 GB, 3rd)

Star: SD SP Alpik Karganian 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
Infielder Trey Michalczewski was sent to AAA Memphis on a rehab assignment.


April 22, 2021: G015 (7-8, 2 GB, 3rd)

Star: SD 3B Travis Brien 4-6, Hr, 2 RBI, BB, 2 RS
Almora’s 2-out, 2-run double in the ninth gave us the lead but Brothers blew the save.


Starting Rotation
Each starter has three outings now, so it is a good time to take stock. Overall, the starter’s ERA is #11 in the N.L. at 5.28, so that’s not where we hoped to be.

Odorizzi 19 IP, 19 H, 8 ER, 7 BB, 21 K, 2-1, 3.79 ERA, .370 BABIP, 3.78 FIP
Perdomo 17 IP, 23 H, 13 ER, 4 BB, 9 K, 1-1, 6.88 ERA, .355 BABIP, 3.61 FIP
Pineda 16.2 IP, 21 H, 13 ER, 4 BB, 19 K, 1-1, 7.02 ERA, .362 BABIP, 4.94 FIP
Hald 15.2 IP, 12 H, 10 ER, 9 BB, 20 K, 1-1, 5.74 ERA, .212 BABIP, 6.52 FIP
Rosenthal 18.2 IP, 16 H, 7 ER, 7 BB, 12 K, 1-0, 3.38 ERA, .259 BABIP, 3.90 FIP

Odorizzi is not a concern. Perdomo seems to be better than his record. Pineda is really interesting… every batter that he faces seems to strike out or get a hit – his K/BB ratio is 4.75. Hald’s stats are alarming. He is my only left-hander, so he might get a longer leash than the others. I don’t want to rush Flores into the rotation, but I might be forced to do so. I am pleased with Rosenthal as a fifth starter, although his BABIP is a warning that he may be pitching above his ceiling.

I want to get some starts for Michael Wacha (4 app, 10 IP, 11 K, 3.60 ERA), but I am not sure which pitcher he should replace. Hald is the obvious choice except that leaves us with no left-hander. I think I will take one more turn through the rotation as it is.

[Sal, The Barber]

Sal traffics in the obvious because that is all Sal is capable of seeing. You are losing all the close games.


Sal can't help but think that his new title comes with the responsibility of developing a potion for just such a problem. Sal will get to work on it. Now do you remember that conversation Sal had with you about money for R&D? Sal is going to need some of that now. Sal believes this potion is going to require a lot of scotch. A lot of scotch.

[Orcin]

Pittsburgh Pirates (5-11) @ St. Louis Cardinals (7-8)
The Pirates are in last place in our division because their starting pitching has been terrible (#14 in the N.L.). The offense is not bad, led by former MVP CF Rodney Rutledge and 38-year-old 3B David Wright (signed as a free agent in the off-season). The Pirates are managed by Brad Mills (since 2018).


April 23, 2021: G016 (8-8, 1 GB, 3rd)

Star: STL C Jorge Alfaro 1-4, HR, 4 RBI
Odorizzi 6.2 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 11 K
Alfaro’s grand slam was aided by the spring wind blowing out to center at 11 mph.
SP John Lamb cleared waivers and was assigned to Memphis (AAA).


April 24, 2021: G017 (8-9, 2 GB, 3rd)

Star: STL 3B Ryder Jones 3-5, HR, 2 RBI, 2 RS
CF Albert Almora also had 3 hits and a stolen base.

A rain delay ended Perdomo’s day after three shutout innings. From there, a worn out bullpen got hammered as we had no choice but leave pitchers in regardless of results.


April 25, 2021: G018 (9-9, 2 GB, 2nd)

Star: STL SP Michael Pineda 7.2 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
We needed every one of those 117 pitches from Pineda with a depleted bullpen.
Ryder Jones’ 2-run homer provided the winning runs.


Players of the Week:
AL: CLE CF Chris Snider 10-24, 3 HR, 10 RBI
NL: COL RF Josh Hamilton (age 39) 11-21, 4 HR, 9 RBI

We are not playing that well right now (#14 in the power rankings), but fortunately no other team in our division is either. The Cubs lead the N.L. Central at 11-7, and we go there next.


Impressions of MLB compared to the CBA
As a new kid on the MLB block, I have noticed a couple of differences. These MLB GMs are pretty smart. They will not take any of my excess and unwanted players, such as 1B Matt Snyder, especially in trade for their good prospects. They also assign no value to my lesser prospects. There are only a handful of players in my organization that have high trade value. This is not a complaint by the way, just an MLB-newbie observation.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals (9-9) @ Chicago Cubs (11-7)
This series will be our fifth on the road against only two at home so far. The Cubs have lost two starting outfielders to injury recently, but they still rank #2 in runs scored in the National League. RF Etrit Halil (out 2-3 weeks with a groin strain) is 3rd in the N.L. with a .408 average. The Cubbies are struggling to replace last year’s ace, SP Mike Leake, who signed with Texas in the off-season. The Cubs play at historic Wrigley Field, which seats 41,118 and slightly favors hitters. Chicago is managed by a rookie, Jim Hickey, former Tampa Bay pitching coach.


April 26, 2021: G019 (9-10, 3 GB, 2nd)

Star: CHN 1B Jalen Harris 2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
CHN SP Mike Heesch 8 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
It was a pitcher’s duel until cleanup hitter Jalen Harris socked a 3-run homer in the 7th.
STL SP Kyle Hald struck out 11 (no walks) but gave up 3 wind-blown homers and 5 ER.
STL C Jorge Alfaro was 3-4 with 2 home runs.

Trey “T-Mick” Michalczewski completed his rehab assignment and was added to the active roster. LF Min-Zhong You was waived and designated for assignment, becoming the seventh Cardinals player to be so honored this year. The secondary roster now stands at 33 players.


April 27, 2021: G020 (10-10, 2 GB, 2nd)

Star: STL SP Trevor Rosenthal 7.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Cardinals hit back-to-back solo home runs in the ninth.
T-Mick was 2-4 with a double in his first game back.


Rotation Turn #4
Odorizzi, Pineda, and Rosenthal were all impressive. Perdomo gets an incomplete. Hald was good until he fell apart, but maybe that’s my fault for leaving him in too long.


April 28, 2021: G021 (11-10, 1 GB, 2nd)

Star: STL SP Jake Odorizzi 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 9 K (a bit wild so pitch count high)
Wong was 3-5 and T-Mick had two hits to spark the offense at the top of the order.
Vance Knox started in left field against the right-hander Cahill in place of Deol.

[blazertaz13]

Originally Posted by Orcin

St. Louis Cardinals (9-9) @ Chicago Cubs (11-7)
This series will be our fifth on the road against only two at home so far. The Cubs have lost two starting outfielders to injury recently, but they still rank #2 in runs scored in the National League. RF Etrit Halil (out 2-3 weeks with a groin strain) is 3rd in the N.L. with a .408 average. The Cubbies are struggling to replace last year’s ace, SP Mike Leake, who signed with Texas in the off-season. The Cubs play at historic Wrigley Field, which seats 41,118 and slightly favors hitters. Chicago is managed by a rookie, Jim Hickey, former Tampa Bay pitching coach.


April 26, 2021: G019 (9-10, 3 GB, 2nd)
Attachment 323344
Star: CHN 1B Jalen Harris 2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
CHN SP Mike Heesch 8 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
It was a pitcher’s duel until cleanup hitter Jalen Harris socked a 3-run homer in the 7th.
STL SP Kyle Hald struck out 11 (no walks) but gave up 3 wind-blown homers and 5 ER.
STL C Jorge Alfaro was 3-4 with 2 home runs.

Trey “T-Mick” Michalczewski completed his rehab assignment and was added to the active roster. LF Min-Zhong You was waived and designated for assignment, becoming the seventh Cardinals player to be so honored this year. The secondary roster now stands at 33 players.


April 27, 2021: G020 (10-10, 2 GB, 2nd)
Attachment 323345
Star: STL SP Trevor Rosenthal 7.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Cardinals hit back-to-back solo home runs in the ninth.
T-Mick was 2-4 with a double in his first game back.


Rotation Turn #4
Odorizzi, Pineda, and Rosenthal were all impressive. Perdomo gets an incomplete. Hald was good until he fell apart, but maybe that’s my fault for leaving him in too long.


April 28, 2021: G021 (11-10, 1 GB, 2nd)
Attachment 323346
Star: STL SP Jake Odorizzi 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 9 K (a bit wild so pitch count high)
Wong was 3-5 and T-Mick had two hits to spark the offense at the top of the order.
Vance Knox started in left field against the right-hander Cahill in place of Deol.

Sorry Mr. Orcin, I just can't thank you for this one as the Cubs lost the series 2 games to 1. Otherwise, keep it up. Go Cubs, I am tired of waiting for another World Series win.


Mr. Taz

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by blazertaz13

Go Cubs.

And I can't bring myself to thank this either.

[Orcin]

Contract Issues/Roster Composition/Winning It All Now

Let’s re-visit the Gang of Eight (expiring contracts): Wong ($10M), Snyder ($7M), Hald ($6.5M), Wacha ($5.5M), Miller ($4.5M), Perdomo ($4M), Lamb ($3.2M), Montgomery ($3M). You may recall that I have $20M of budget room available, so they obviously won’t all fit. I will attempt to prioritize this list now, using a limited sample of 20 games.

Wong – I am still undecided on him. I think he can be signed for 3 years at $35M or so. I have a 23-year-old good field, no hit so far prospect named Andre Hicks behind him. He is a switch-hitter with very good speed and intangibles. Hicks is hitting .375 in his first eight games at AAA, but it is obviously a very small sample size.

Snyder – I have already decided that he will not return. He has no trade value so far.

Hald – Lefty starter Jose Flores will replace him next year, if not before, so Hald will not return. He is considered a vastly overpaid veteran and has limited trade value.

Wacha – Undecided, need to see more of him as a starter.

Miller – He will be replaced by Darryl Chambers, a reliever acquired from Tampa Bay in the Jackie Bradley trade, unless he is willing to accept a much lower salary for one year.

Perdomo – Undecided, his control is an issue.

Lamb – He has already cleared waivers and will only get a shot if Hald flops or is injured and I don’t feel that Flores is ready. I am 99% sure that he won’t be back.

Montgomery – I want him back. He will take a two-year extension right now at $3M per year. That’s a cheap setup man and even cheaper closer if Brothers voids his option.

In addition to these eight, I have another $12.5M committed to SP Michael Pineda ($6.7M) and LF Dutch Deol ($5.8M), and neither is certain to be back next season.

Pineda – Undecided, but he could be a decent third starter.

Deol – He is doing what he always does, i.e. hitting .230 with great defense. He has trade value. I might be better off to play Knox in left field and find a cheaper player as the fourth outfielder. However, Deol would be an outstanding player if he can make better and more consistent contact because he draws walks and has some pop.


The Plan…

Leaving Pineda and Deol out of the equation for the moment, and assuming that I sign Montgomery, I have approximately $17M to spend on a second baseman, raises to go with contract extension, and starting rotation upgrades. Looking ahead to next year’s rotation, it shapes up as Odorizzi, Perdomo, Pineda, Flores, and either Rosenthal or Wacha.

I am not sold on Perdomo (or Pineda) as my #2 starting pitcher. If I replace Wong with Hicks and delay contract extensions for the arbitration eligible players, I could use that $17M surplus to upgrade Perdomo’s spot in the rotation. However, a $17M free agent starting pitcher would likely result in the forfeiture of my #1 draft pick for the second consecutive year. I don’t like that idea at all.

Now this is where it gets complicated, so please stay with me. If I trade Pineda (and maybe Deol?) for a quality #2 starting pitcher, I could free up enough salary to cover contract extensions and/or Wong, AND I would be able to retain the draft pick. Plus, I would upgrade the rotation for THIS year, and perhaps dethrone the Dodgers.

This is the plan. I said this was going to be fun. I didn’t say that it would be easy.

[Orcin]

Win It All Now (part 2)

The Seattle Mariners have the pitcher that I want: 28-year-old right-hander Taijuan Walker. Taijuan (pronounced Taiwan, like the country) is 6’3”, 230 pounds and very durable. He throws a 96-98 mph fastball with three other quality pitches. He is 92-72 with a 3.57 ERA over his seven-year career. The advanced metrics on Walker are all good: K/9=8.5, K/BB=4.0, FIP=3.69, HR/9=0.96, QS=60%. His stamina is outstanding (5 career shutouts, 18 complete games). Taijuan Walker is a solid #2 starter, at least.

Walker is signed for this year at $10M after which he will become a compensation eligible free agent. This could be an opportunity, but it also raises two major concerns: (1) Seattle could re-sign him before he gets to the market, and (2) I don’t want to give up a first-round draft pick. A trade solves both problems, if the Mariners will do it.

I contacted Seattle about a possible trade (you never know until you ask) and they are interested. The Mariners are 7-14 overall, so we might be catching them in a mood to shake up their ball club. They are under new “fiscally controlling” ownership – mystery man Caden Reece. It could be that Reece won’t approve the extension that Walker wants. Perhaps they have already tried to sign him on the cheap, and he broke off negotiations. Whatever the Mariners’ motivation to trade Walker might be, it is there.

New owner Reece has identified three weaknesses on the club: left field, rotation, and bullpen. They like Dutch Deol to solve their left field problem. The Mariners apparently view quantity as the solution to their rotation problem because they are interested in Pineda AND Perdomo (but only both, not one or the other) to complete the deal. I offered Pineda, Perdomo, and Deol to gauge how serious they really are. GM Steve Phillips said that he needed to sleep on it, meaning that he needs to run it by his new boss. I suspect that he will ask for a fourth player. I am not convinced that I want to part with Deol at all, but I definitely won’t agree to add a fourth player of any value.

Acquiring Walker would only be the first step in the process. I will have to sign him to a contract or he just becomes a very expensive rental. I can’t find out his demands before I acquire him, so there is some risk that I won’t be able to sign him. I am prepared to give him a contract slightly lower than Odorizzi and Taveras, but that might not do it. Don’t forget that I want budget room to sign Alfaro, Crawford, T-Mick, and maybe Wong. Walker is not greedy, and he wants to play on a winner. Both of those play in my favor.

The fallout from this trade IF it happens: Knox or You (not you) will be in the lineup playing left field, both Wacha and Rosenthal will be in the rotation, and Wong will likely not be re-signed. I could live with all of that because it puts me one step closer to getting past the Dodgers in the post-season. I have done a lot of talking about those Dodgers… maybe it is time that I let you know precisely why I am so concerned.

[Orcin]

Keeping Up with the Joneses… err Johnsons

The Los Angeles Dodgers, otherwise known as Public Enemy #1, are still owned by the group that purchased the team from Frank McCourt in 2012. Earvin “Magic” Johnson, 61, now holds a large majority position in the group and is the owner for all practical purposes. His patience is “demanding” and his fiscal personality is “generous”. That last bit is an understatement.

The Dodgers have the largest market size, fan loyalty, ticket prices, and hence budget in MLB. The Dodgers’ budget is $290 million. The Dodgers’ payroll is $250 million. Both of these numbers are $100 million more than the Cardinals, who are not paupers. The Dodgers have taken $90 million in profit out of the franchise over the past two years, so they have room to be even more aggressive if needed. It hasn’t been needed recently.

The Dodgers have made the playoffs five consecutive years. They won the last two National League pennants, beating the Cardinals in the LCS both times. They are 15-6 so far this season. The Dodgers have a solid lineup and they score a lot of runs, but the key to their success is their pitching. Their team ERA for the last three seasons is 3.12, 2.97, and 3.24. Here’s a brief rundown of their current starting rotation.

Clayton Kershaw (age 33, throws L) – 2020 stats: 20-7, 2.29, 33 GS, 244 IP, 267 K
He is signed for four more years at $22M per year. Kershaw won his third Cy Young Award in 2020. He is a seven-time all-star. His career record is 208-102 with a 2.76 ERA. His 3,341 career strikeouts are already #12 all-time. His four pitches are all rated 70 and above. He is a bonafide ace on his way to the Hall of Fame someday.

Andrew Cashner (age 34, throws R) – 2020 stats: 12-12, 3.58, 33 GS, 224 IP, 324 K
He is under contract for two more years at $18M per year. The Dodgers signed Cashner away from San Diego as a free agent, and he was 18-3 in his first year in L.A. (2019). He has two Cy Young Awards to his credit and is a five-time all-star. He throws 100 mph with a nasty slider as his out pitch. He would be the ace on almost any other team.

Jose Fernandez (age 28, throws R) – 2020 stats: 16-9, 3.54, 26 GS, 193 IP, 151K
He signed a six year contract at $18M per year prior to the 2020 season. Fernandez was 16-4 with a 2.67 ERA for Miami in 2019 before the Dodgers added him to their stable of premier arms. He has great intangibles and would be the leader on any staff except this one.

Dylan Bundy (age 28, throws R) – 2020 stats: 14-9, 3.58, 33 GS, 231 IP, 286 K
He is signed for four years at an average annual salary of $18M. Bundy is a three-time all-star. He was the ace of Baltimore’s staff until he became a free agent after the 2019 season. He has a nasty cutter and a changeup that enhances his 95 mph fastball. He is another ace or, at least a quality #2.

Nick Adams (age 25, throws R) – 2020 stats: 16-7, 3.04, 24 GS, 187 IP, 210 K
Drafted by the Royals #6 overall in 2014, he was acquired via trade by the Dodgers while he was still in Rookie ball. Adams just signed a five-year contract with a $12M AAV to avoid his first year of arbitration. He throws 98 mph with a forkball for an out pitch. Adams had trouble breaking into this rotation, but he would be the #1 pitcher on almost any other staff.

That’s an impressive rotation right there, and they aren’t finished impressing you. Sitting in the bullpen at the moment are:

Jacob Turner (age 29, throws R) – 2020 stats: 9-4, 3.48, 25 saves, 52 G, 13 GS
He is signed for two more years at $17M per year. Turner was 19-8 with a 2.87 ERA in 2019, but that wasn’t good enough to stay in the Dodgers rotation. So he went to the bullpen where he saved 25 games. Now he has been pushed into the setup role by sensational rookie closer Gabe Herrera.

Danny Duffy (age 32, throws L) – 2020 stats: 8-5, 3.70, 52 G, 65 IP
He is signed for six more years at an average annual salary of $13M. Duffy was 20-5 with a 2.86 ERA in 2019. However, that makes you the #6 or #7 starter in Los Angeles. So, he is sharing the setup duties with Turner unless someone gets hurt.

Hyun-Jin Ryu (age 34, throws L) – 2020 stats: 0-0, 3.60, 10 G, 15 IP
No, he wasn’t injured. He just sat in the bullpen all year. Ryu is signed for three more years at $18M per year, and the Dodgers would pay a lot of his salary just to get rid of him. He last pitched as a starter for them in 2018 and was 17-10 with a 3.14 ERA. He would be a huge upgrade over our left-handed starter, Kyle Hald, but he is just a lefty specialist on their staff.

Turner or Duffy would easily be the #2 starter on the Cardinals. On the other hand, only Jake Odorizzi could make the Dodgers rotation from the Cardinals staff. Probably only Odorizzi and Brothers could even make their staff. It’s hard to compete with a team that keeps $17M/year aces warming the pine in the bullpen, but that is the hand that I was dealt. I wasn’t hired to wave the white flag. I was hired to find solutions.

I assessed my own team and concluded that the starting rotation was a weakness and money could be diverted from position players to fix it. Signing Odorizzi while trading Bradley was step one in the process. Acquiring Walker for multiple excess parts would be step two if I can pull it off. The remainder of the solution may have to be internally developed. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and we aren’t made of money like the Dodgers.

[Orcin]

St. Louis Cardinals (11-10) @ San Francisco Giants (9-12)
The Giants were predicted to finish last in the N.L. West, and indeed that’s where they are right now. Their pitching has been good, but they aren’t scoring many runs (last in the N.L. at just over 3 per game). This is our second look at the Giants in AT&T Park. We lost 2 out of 3 the first time. This will make 6 of our first 8 series away from Busch Stadium, as we continue a brutal stretch of road games to open the season.


April 29, 2021: OFF
Seattle GM Steve Phillips wants a fourth player for Walker as predicted. I am not even sure that I will trade Deol, much less more. I offered Pineda, Perdomo, and Lamb, but Phillips said that was not enough. He wants a left fielder to satisfy his boss, and I just don’t have enough confidence in my outfield depth to pull that trigger.

Phillips is also very interested in 23-year-old Memphis 3B Josh Williams (my #4 position player prospect, #6 overall). Williams is a very good hitter and may be better than Ryder Jones at some point. He hasn’t used any options yet, so he is under club control for 6-9 years. Defensively, he is adequate but his arm is a little weak for third base. He is also a mediocre left fielder. He could be a good candidate to convert to first base, but he is a slow learner plus I already have T-Mick there. I don’t know what to do with Williams yet, but I do know that I won’t trade him.


April 30, 2021: G022 (11-11, 2 GB, 2nd)

Star: SF SP Julio Tehran 8 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Perdomo pitched pretty well: 7.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Albert Almora continued his surprising hitting (.286, 8 RBI), going 2-4 with a DBL.


May 1, 2021: G023 (12-11, 1 GB, 2nd)

Star: STL SP Michael Pineda 8 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Brothers almost blew the save by walking the bases loaded.
LF Dutch Deol threw out the tying run at the plate to end the game.
Kolten Wong was 3-5 with a DBL and 2 runs scored (we are enjoying his contract drive).
Slumping RF Oscar Taveras got the day off to recharge his batteries.
SS J.P. Crawford began a rehab assignment at Memphis.


Trade Discussions
I did not call Seattle back today about Walker. Pineda had a good day and it made me consider the deal. No reason to be hasty. Maybe his value will be higher later. I might even decide to keep him. I am still undecided on Perdomo too. Elsewhere, looking for some depth, we signed 36-year-old closer Bobby Parnell to a minor-league contract.


May 2, 2021: G024 (13-11, - GB, t-1st)

Star: STL SS Cris Navarro 2-5, HR, 4 RBI
Hald 5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 6 K (good stuff but his control was terrible)
Light-hitting utility infielder Cris Navarro’s grand slam in the fourth blew the game open.
Catcher Jorge Alfaro had a rough day behind the plate: two errors and a passed ball.


Trade Discussions
Tampa Bay will trade SP Max Hicks for Pineda, Deol, and Perdomo. You may recall that Hicks was the other free agent pitcher that I considered along with Odorizzi. Apparently, the Rays are getting cold feet about their budget. He is signed for 5 years at $83M, but I hope to get Walker signed for less. Plus, Walker is a year younger and a better pitcher.


Players of the Week:
AL: MIN CF Olaf Oerlemans 16-27, 2 HR, 6 RBI
NL: COL 2B Wilmer Flores 12-22, 2 HR, 6 RBI

Palm Beach CF Jose Azocar was Player of the Week (11-26, 3 HR) in the Florida State League (high-A). He has been traded by three teams and released by two over his eight- year professional career. I signed the 25-year-old Venezuelan as a minor league free agent prior to the season. He will be moved up to the Texas League (AA) soon because he is hitting .371 and should be at a higher level.

[Westheim]

Mr. Orcin not pulling the trigger on a blockbuster trade in April? Aren't you feeling well or what is wrong?

And you gotta love a guy named Olaf Oerlemans.

[Orcin]

Standings on May 1




Players of the Month for April:
CLE RF Ruben Gonzalez (.367-7-26)
LAN RF Joc Pederson (.361-5-18)


Pitchers of the Month for April:
NYA SP Kyle Gibson (4-0, 2.45)
COL SP Chris Sale (5-0, 1.98)


Other April Highlights:
STL DH Tarou Sano (.276-7-12) was N.L. Rookie of the Month.
SP Tyrelle Jenkins (4-0, 3.45) was Pacific Coast League (AAA) Pitcher of the Month.
Springfield SP Javier Perez (3-1, 1.93) was Texas League (AA) Pitcher of the Month.

[blazertaz13]

It may only be May 1st, but you have to like the standings (especially the NL Central). :-)

Sorry Mr. Orcin, only team I have a fond feeling for are the lovable Cubs. Then again, I am used the saying it is still early......

[Orcin]

Baltimore Orioles (9-17) @ St. Louis Cardinals (13-11)
This is our first interleague matchup. The rebuilding Orioles have been among the worst teams in baseball for the past two years, winning only 55 games in 2020. General Manager Dan Duquette will clear $30M of payroll off the books at the end of the year, with big contracts due to expire for pitchers Felix Hernandez and Kevin Gausman. In the meantime, they will struggle. The Orioles are managed by Kevin Long (since 2020).


May 3, 2021: G025 (14-11, - GB, t-1st)

Star: STL SP Trevor Rosenthal 9 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K, W (3-0, 1.78)
Rosenthal continues to pitch like an ace. This was his first career shutout.


Starting Rotation
Each pitcher has five starts now, so we are building toward a decent sample. Odorizzi and Rosenthal have been solid. My hunch on Rosenthal has really paid off so far, but it’s very early. Pineda is looking better with each start and I have reservations about trading him. Perdomo and Hald are certainly weak links as of now. I want to see Wacha as a starter, perhaps against Baltimore on Wednesday in place of Perdomo.


May 4, 2021: G026 (14-12, - GB, t-1st)

Star: BAL 1B Bryce Harman 2-3, HR, 3 RBI
Hector Rios was 4-4 and Albert Almora had 3 hits including 2 doubles.

Odorizzi put the first two men on in the first inning and then he left the game with an abdominal strain. Reyes came in and promptly gave up a three-run homer. Wacha took over in the second and pitched three innings, so he won’t start this week. We burned through several pitchers in this one. Fortunately, Odorizzi will not miss a start. Pineda will go tomorrow instead of Perdomo, because I want another look at Pineda before my off day on Thursday (when I will make some calls).

Ryder Jones, team leader in HR and RBI, has been in the cleanup spot more often recently due to the sluggish start by Jorge Alfaro. I have tried to negotiate a contract extension with Jones, but he wants more money than I am willing to commit. He still has an arbitration year remaining, so there is no urgency for me.


May 5, 2021: G027 (15-12, - GB, t-1st)

Star: STL C Jorge Alfaro 3-5, 2 DBL, HR, 3 RBI, 3 RS (must like batting sixth)
Taveras and Rios also had three hits for St. Louis
Pineda 6.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (only complaint is that he was tired at 97 pitches)


May 6, 2021: OFF
Reliever Mark Montgomery signed a two-year extension at $3M per year. The second year is a team option with a $500K buyout.


Trade Discussions
I almost did not make any calls, but I decided to see if Pineda’s value had gone up with his recent run of good performance. Tampa Bay will trade Max Hicks for Pineda, Deol, and Perdomo. Seattle will think about Taijuan Walker for Pineda, Deol, and Perdomo. I would rather have Walker. I am still uncertain about trading Deol, even though he isn’t hitting much. My scout is watching Max Hicks pitch in Oakland today, so I will have a look at his report before making any offers.

Shopping Hald did not turn up much. There were no players of interest without 2022 commitments attached to them. I want to keep the budget room that I have to sign core players to extensions and/or pursue a free agent pitcher in the off-season.


New York Yankees are 20-7, best record in MLB
The Bronx Bombers signed free agent 2B Jurickson Profar in the off-season and it has paid off so far. Profar is hitting .353 with 16 runs scored and 16 RBI in 26 games. The pitching staff is benefiting from the extra run production, as top starters Kyle Gibson and Yordano Ventura are 8-0 between them. Tanner Scheppers leads MLB with 9 saves.


First-Year Draft Pool Published
No reason to get excited. I forfeited my first-round pick by signing Jake Odorizzi. Our first pick in the draft will be #65 overall (end of round 2). Forfeiting draft picks to sign expensive free agents is contrary to my overall strategy, but I needed to beef up the major league club before I could feel comfortable around here. I am the new kid in town, you know. I don’t have a big budget for the draft this year, so I would have to be careful with a high pick anyway. But the whole idea of picking #65 does make me anxious to acquire a #2 starter via trade rather than free agency. That type of pitcher will almost certainly be compensation eligible.