An OOTP 11 Dynasty: The Brew Crew

[MadBum]

Hope springs eternal, there’s always next year, yada yada yada…I’m just excited I got out of the deluge of the offseason and now can get down to playing baseball. Of course, with spring training comes the inevitability of having to cut down the roster from 40 to 25 and see who makes the final roster. That's the process we go through here, as I have to crush the dreams of 15 young men. Sorry, guys!

Spring Training was fun; watched a couple of games, learned about the players, and most of all just enjoyed the great sport they call baseball. We played some winning baseball; even a 5 game winning streak to end the spring. I know spring training’s not very indicative of future results, but I think that this is the start of something bigger. Maybe I’m wrong, but gosh darnit it’s spring and I have every right to be optimistic about our chances. Dreams of a World Series championship dance in my head...okay, maybe not the World Series, but third place in the NL Central certainly seems exciting when you're asleep.

We picked up two more relievers off the waiver wire, both with the pedigree of a high draft selection. Juan Carlos Trevino isn’t even real, but the 2010 third rounder rocketed up to the big leagues and threw three scoreless innings when he got there. He throws 96 and gets ground balls; that’s worth a 40 man spot. I have no clue why the Padres got rid of him, but if San Diego wants to go around handing out free relievers I'm not one to complain. I’m more excited about another lefty, Daniel ‘Famous Dad’ Schlereth. A former first round pick, a 5.40 ERA in 35 innings last year likely soured the Felines on him. 47 Ks in 35 innings? I don't know what that sounds like to you, but that sounds like *gasp* a good reliever to me. How is this possible? I thought only the Yankees got those guys (The Yanks, by the way, are so stacked in the pen that one Mariano Rivera isn't even the closer there anymore. The Yankee Way of loyalty to overpaid aging players is obviously fading in this universe; Mo's been cast off to middle relief, and Derek Jeter is suiting up for the Pale Hose. Some world we live in here in this fictional universe, right?)

The ones who will be missed; overpaid veterans LaTroy Hawkins and Craig Counsell were let go. Jeff Suppan just avoids getting the axe by tearing his labrum and going on the 60 Day DL. That's not a fate I'd wish on anybody, but it saves me from eating 13 million dollars. Nothing personal against either one; but both performed poorly in spring and younger, better options were already in the fold. I’m sadder to see Counsell go; his batting stance and beating the Yankees makes him a hero in my book, but I’m more than happy to see Hawkins, a nightmarish bullpen guy from the Giants of earlier in the aughts (aughts is a terrible name, by the way), gone. His poor performance in the final game of spring gave me enough reason to kick him to the curb, and I enjoyed it. So long, sucker!

We also dispose of the chump Manny Parra, who bombed in three spring training starts. His 2010 looks like a mirage, just like that fresh water spring you see while hallucinating in the desert. Tantalizing, but soon enough you have to come to grips with reality, and spring was our wake up call. He’s off to sunny San Diego, returning to his home state of California. Enjoy it, Manny. Offensive first Rule 5 pick ‘Obi-Wan’ Gonzalez hit .143 in Spring Training, so we cut him loose. 5 days later he signed a minor league deal, just because I could not get rid of that nickname. Don't make fun of me for being obsessed with my own cleverness!

We sent a bunch of guys down who likely had jersey numbers in the 90s, and we’re not talking about ManRam or Wayne Gretzky either. Zach Braddock, Brett Lawrie, Marco Estrada, Joe Inglett, Chris Lubanski, Juan Carlos Trevino, Chris Pettit, Angel Salome, and Joe Koshansky never really had much of a chance of making the roster, but they gave it their best anyway. In more surprising news, Jake Westbrook is down to Nashville, where he’ll enjoy watching Predators hockey and feasting on inexperienced hitters. Jeff Sues will join him; he’s good bullpen insurance in AAA, and he’ll find his way to the bigs when the throwing arm of one of our many fungible relievers literally falls off. It won’t be pretty, but at least we’ll have Sues in the minors!

And…that should be it. Oh wait, I’m forgetting one move. How could I forget it? Could’ve sworn I wrote that down somewhere. Let me ruffle through my notes for a second here. Silly MadBum, this is only one of the biggest moves of the offseason…

CLIFFHANGER!

[Big T]

Oh great, is this going to rank up there with "who shot JR ?"

Just curious, did you set the line ups for the spring or let your manager do it?

So we are just about ready to play some games. I see you have predicted a 3rd place finish, or at least dreamt of one, you thinking .500 team ? Better or Worse ?

[Corona]

I love your writing style, i read through this so quick because of it. Awesome so far.

[MadBum]

Originally Posted by Big T

Oh great, is this going to rank up there with "who shot JR ?"

Just curious, did you set the line ups for the spring or let your manager do it?

So we are just about ready to play some games. I see you have predicted a 3rd place finish, or at least dreamt of one, you thinking .500 team ? Better or Worse ?

You mean JR Richard?. I set my own line-ups, and made sure to adjust it at times to make sure plenty of guys got at-bats. Set my own line-up for the games I managed as well.

As for finishing, I'm going to do a NL Central preview, but a sneak peek...I'm thinking we'll be right around 81-81, give or take a few games.

Originally Posted by Corona

I love your writing style, i read through this so quick because of it. Awesome so far.

Thanks for the comment, beer maker Corona! Love your commercials, and really appreciate the compliments you give to me. Glad it's a quick read for you, and that you liked it.

The world's greatest mystery will be solved...shortly. (and not like David Eckstein!)

[MadBum]

I’m not sure how to explain it, so here’s just the transcript between one GM of a rival club and one agitated hobo:

JH: “So, you got this kid in your bullpen Bryan Augenstein. What can you tell me about him?”

MB: “Young kid. Can start if needed. Throws 90, with a good little slider and a complimentary change-up. Has more control than stuff, but his stuff ain’t too shabby either. He’s struggled a bit in spr…”

JH: “Yeah, yeah. Our scout likes him a lot, and we want to trade for him. What’ll take to get him?”

MB: “Well we like him a lot, and he’s going to be one our bullpen arms this year. Young kid too, so he’s a big part of our future.”

MB, whispering to assistant: “I was just about to Bryan on waivers…*snickers*”

Jim Hendry: “We’ll give you Geovany Soto.”

MB: “So…Soto?”

Jim Hendry: “Now I know that seems a little lopsided to you, so they’ll have to be prospects thrown in.”

MB: “Perfect.”

JH: “So, how about we give you guys Hak-Ju Lee, and Andrew Cashner.”

MB: “Wait, you’re giving us prospects? I mean, of course, of course. Of course you’re giving us prospects.”

JH: “Now we’ll require you to give us something too, along with Augenstein.”

MB: “Brett Lawrie is not-“

JH: “How about Rookie Ball reliever Maverick Lasker and left fielder Demetrius McKelvie?”

MB: “McKelvie? He’s a banjo hit-I mean, of course, just those two guys. We hate to get rid of them, but we understand fair value for fair value.”

JH: “Sounds good. I’ll fax it into the league office.”

MB: “You still use a fa-I mean yeah, thanks. Pleasure doing business.”

JH: “Oh, sorry, but Alfonso Soriano’s not for sale! Nope, he’s ours! Not on the market!”

*MadBum exalts in celebration, cracks open a bottle of champagne. Five minutes pass*

Jim Hendry: “Say, we’re weak on catching. I like that Geovany Soto kid you got start-”
*MB hangs up*

We get: C Geovany Soto, MiL SS Hak-Ju Lee, MiL SP Andrew Cashner
They get: MR Bryan Augenstein, CL Maverick Lasker, LF Demetrius McKelvie

I understand why they would do it; Soto’s service clock is running up, he’s making 8.5 million this year, and the Lovable Last Placers are going nowhere and need some youth…but damn, this is highway robbery. The only thing I can think of is that Soto's embroiled in some gambling scheme along with A-Rod. After all, his player card does say he enjoys playing cards with teammates. I see through your lies, Geovany...At any rate, so much for the Kottaras/Castillo platoon. Enjoy the minors, Wilkin!

[Big T]

Awesome deal... but who got shot?

So the catcher position has been solidified, you have made moves and you were predicting an .500 record... any change in that theory, does the deal move you up the NL Central food chain?

[MadBum]

Originally Posted by Big T

Awesome deal... but who got shot?

So the catcher position has been solidified, you have made moves and you were predicting an .500 record... any change in that theory, does the deal move you up the NL Central food chain?

JR Richard, of course!

I can't give you all my secrets... But I'll have a preview of all the NL Central teams with standings projections.

I wonder what % of dynasties survive their first 2-3 day break...I bet it's usually not good numbers. Here I am, surviving my first disappearance. But who really cares anyway? It's internet people talking about video games, and it's strange that I'm actually thinking about this at this hour. Moving on...

[Big T]

Originally Posted by MadBum

JR Richard, of course!

I can't give you all my secrets... But I'll have a preview of all the NL Central teams with standings projections.

I wonder what % of dynasties survive their first 2-3 day break...I bet it's usually not good numbers. Here I am, surviving my first disappearance. But who really cares anyway? It's internet people talking about video games, and it's strange that I'm actually thinking about this at this hour. Moving on...

I am sure if they are interesting, like yours....... they will survive...

Looking forward to the predictions..

[MadBum]

The Houston Astros were good. Like, really good. Like, Brad Lidge not getting bombed by Albert Pujols away from being in the World Series good. But the fabled ‘window of opportunity’ has passed for the Astros, and now their left to pick up the pieces with aging and poor ballplayers. It’s not a good combination, and with the farm system’s best prospect having the name U-Suk…do I really need to make the joke here? Too easy, as is projecting the Desastros for a bottom feeder finish.

Wandy, Oswalt, pray for rain…

Taking the place of Spahn is fellow lefty Wandy Rodriguez, who won 16 games a year ago with a 126 ERA+. On a contending team, he’s a #2 or #3, but on this team he’s the #1 by a very large margin. His curveball is a majestic thing of beauty, akin to the monster that was Barry Zito’s hook back when Barry was actually good. The role of Sain is played by Roy Oswalt, who really struggled a year ago with a 4.73 ERA. Cutting down on the 30 dingers (a career high by a large margin) should be enough to correct his numbers back to the ace he used to be, but he's no Halladay either. Behind him is just a bunch of guys; Clayton Richard’s a nifty little soft tossing lefty, but he has two first names, and thus cannot be trusted. Felipe Paulino may throw hard, but he had a 6.26 ERA a year ago, and his brother in arms Alberto Arias produced results that were much the same. Brett Myers is still hanging around somewhere, but Tommy John has taken his wife-beating habits to the minors for now.

Losing team, thou must have Proven Closer (TM)

Ed Wade was rightfully chastised for signing Brandon Lyon to a three year deal in 2009, and Houston is now paying the price. He may be a Proven Closer (TM), but for a team praying for fourth that’s not really an asset worth having. Other than that, it’s a ton of names that you recognize but can’t put a finger on where they come from. All would be a good twelth man on the staff. But at some point, Jeff Fulchino, Matt Belisle, Wesley Wright, and Rich Thompson are going to be what they always were: mediocre pitchers. When that happens, look for the poor Stros to blow a lot of the few leads they do manage to get.

But he knows how to handle the staff!

JR Towles must be the pitcher whisperer, calming down their jumpy nerves and feeding them doggy treats as rewards for strikeouts. There’s no other reason why his .304 OBP would play every day, especially when Houston has alternative options. Like former top 10 pick Jason Castro, who hits left handed and has some upside. Okay, he hit .245 in AAA last year, but it has to be better than Towles! He did go to Stanford, though. Maybe not...

Glove Men out of the tree

Lance Berkman can still swing the stick, as his take and rake approach netted the Desastros 40 home runs and solid production across the board. He’s a fine centerpiece on his own, and can make up for some deficiencies of his fellow infielders. The problem? Alexi Casilla, Cesar Nicolas, and Tommy Manzella all closely resemble Milwaukee Mexican favorite Luis Cruz. That’s not a good thing, folks, because as the Mariners have found out a run saved is not a run earned, cause you can’t win a game -1-0. Jack Wilson would be an upgrade over any of these guys, and that's says a lot more about these fellas than it does about Captain Jack.

Continuity isn’t always good

Well. maybe it is good when you have a still productive Carlos Lee, Willy Taveras clone Michael Bourn, and goofy looking Hunter Pence. The Panamanian Lee hit .307 and hit 30 home runs, good numbers for anybody, regardless of position. His 100 RBI will confuse Tim McCarver into thinking he's clutch, but not me. You can’t fool me, Carlos! Sure, ‘El Caballo’ may be overpaid, but when you replaced the decaying carcass of Preston Wilson in left, Houston was desperate for any source of an upgrade. Michael Bourn stole 61 bases, and his .339 OBP means he’s getting on base nowadays. While his buddy Taveras toils in the capital, Michael has found his niche. Good for him! Hunter Pence looks like Rango, or some other goofy cartoon character, but he’s good for a cannon arm in right and a .800 OPS with the capability for a great fluke year. Funny looking and all, that's a good player to have. Former Milwaukee great Logan Schafer has also found a home in Texas as a fourth outfielder. A good unit; at least it's not all doom and gloom in this establishment.

In summation

I feel for Houston fans; competitive baseball has slipped away, their legends have joined my great grandpa in the retirement home (we miss you Killer B’s!), there’s little youth with upside, and the current talent ain’t so hot either. It’s a bad combo, and it’s the kind that puts a team in a 15 year rebuilding project like the Bucs. There is some talent, and if Paulino and Richard suddenly become quality starters, Lyon becomes a bonafide relief ace, and Alexi Casilla and Tommy Manzella magically finds how to hit they may make some kind of run at something. But the odds of that happening aren’t good, and by not good I mean nonexistant.

Prediction: 68-94, sixth place in the Central, watching highlight tapes from 2004

[holley]

For the love that of all that is good...please don't tell me we have to wade thru 29 teams of predictions to see our first game

All said in jest in MB~ like I said...enjoying the ride, just anxious to see our boys in the box scores.

Be Well~
M.

[MadBum]

Originally Posted by Big T

I am sure if they are interesting, like yours....... they will survive...

Looking forward to the predictions..

I'm flatteredThanks for the praise again Big T.

Originally Posted by holley

For the love that of all that is good...please don't tell me we have to wade thru 29 teams of predictions to see our first game

All said in jest in MB~ like I said...enjoying the ride, just anxious to see our boys in the box scores.

Be Well~
M.

I admit to thinking about doing all 29 teams, but I decided against it and went with only the 6 teams in the Central. I'm glad that makes you happy

The boys will be in boxscores soon enough, don't worry. I believe I made a promise that by Page 6 I'd have a game up, and I'll do my best to adhere to that. Thanks for the kind words again holley.

[MadBum]

It’s rare I get to quote U2, but that’s the case for the poor Chicago Cubs. It’s been 102 years and counting since the North Siders won the World Series, and with this unit there’s little end in sight. So the question is: how long must the Blue faithful sing this same sad song of losing? It’ll probably take until the contract albatrosses of Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Silva, and Ryan Dempster all come off the books. That’ll happen in 2012 or 2013, meaning that the Cubs will be singing for quite a long time.

This is a Really Good Rotation! In 2005

As the title suggests, this team has a bunch of starters who had their best days earlier in the aughts. And that includes Jeff Samardzija, who was a good receiver catching handeggs from Brady Quinn on the Golden Domers. But this group is still hanging around, and I wouldn’t dismiss any of them as a quality starter. Apologies; I meant I wouldn’t dismiss any of them except for Carlos Silva, who’s a ‘fat toad’ and awful despite 14 wins last year. The joys of run support! Ryan Dempster, proud Canadian and with an incredibly odd delivery, is a bit injure prone but had a 2.84 ERA last year, and Carlos Zambrano, he of angry tantrums and retiring, is a league average starter. Both provide stability, the only time Zambrano and stability have ever been mentioned in the same sentence. Ted Lilly signed to a three year deal to stay in the Friendly Confines despite having some injury problems. Former Crewsman Bryan Augenstein can be used to spot start.

Hard Throwing, Little Control, Volatile

Congratulations! With those three above descriptions, you just described 50% of the Cubs relievers! The closer, Carlos Marmol, leads the bullpen in that, although he has posted three consecutive years of quality pitching. Still, a 5.98 BB/9 leads me to believe that Marmol is just waiting, waiting, on his ERA to explode. Set-up men Craig Hanson and Angel Guzman are much the same; hard throwing, but walking people as much as a mailman. Hanson, for one, had an amazingly high 6.54 BB/9, while Guzman continued his fragile china-doll tendencies with yet-another injury. Chicago also rocks three lefties in the pen, with specialists John Grabow, James Russell, and Sean Marshall (Denny) hocking LOOGYs. Finding control is about as hard as finding the Loch Ness Monster, but if that hoax picture turns out to be real than this bullpen could be a monster.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha Thanks for Soto!

I know a lot about baseball, and I’m pretty good with remembering names of even the worst players. I’ve never heard of Cubs regular catcher Mark Reed, or AAA insurance Sergio Burruel. I have heard of Wellington Castillo, but he’s the back-up, with good reason. His only use is the fact that he’s very good behind the plate. Under Tony La Russa, he could have the career of Mike Matheny, but in a Cubs organization that values the bat Castillo’s regulated to a reserve role. Reed spent all of last year in A ball. He’ll be starting this year. That’s the genius of Jim Hendry.

Purple Dinosaurs

Making fun of Darwin Barney is easy…he’s got the same name as a dinosaur! He’s short! He has Jason Tyner type power! He hit .233 in the bigs last year, and his only value is in batting average! What do you call a purple dinosaur that can’t hit? Darwin Barney! Okay, I think I’m done. He’s their shortstop. Aramis Ramirez may be 33 and overpaid, but there’s no denying he still can hit a bit. 25 home runs and the rest of his numbers match up with the numbers he’s put up his whole career, so the Cubs have no one to blame but Jim Hendry for the bloated contract. Had a very good year with the glove last year as well, making him a 5 win player. Justin Huber was a failed Kansas City first base prospect around 2005; 6 years later, he’s still mashing in AAA and struggling upon arrival in the MLB. Last year, he took an 0 for 27 streak in the show. Predictably, he’s the Cubs first basemen. Finally, you have the untouchable German Jeff Baker, whose main asset is…he can play every infield spot? I dunno, it’s hard finding much to like about a negative fielder with a negative VORP and little baserunning ability. He’s their second basemen. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2011 Chicago Cubs! Mike FonteYES is a much better option at second; at least he can field, and hit righties effectively. He’s a below average, sure, but Baker’s just plain bad. Sweet Lou’s lost his mind, so Baker will get the nod and YES will languish on the bench.

Left Handed Batters, get your Left Handed Batters!

Sam Fuld, Matthew Joyce, Tyler Colvin, and Tony Gwynn Jr. all share one thing in common, and no, it’s not that they all suck. Nope, it’s that they all hit with the left hand. Screw it, I’m bringing back Doug Davis (somehow on the Yankees) to start against the Cubbies. Marlon Byrd is the lone righty, but he’s lost some of the power away from the heat of Texas but gained some OBP. Maybe not the player he used to be, but he’s still a solid left fielder. Tyler Colvin survived getting exiled to AAA last year to start in center field for the team this year. His main asset is his ability to produce power from a non-traditional power spot, giving him value when he wouldn’t have it in a corner. His defense ain’t too shabby either. Finally, we have Matthew Joyce, the right fielder. Dude hits doubles. Lots of doubles. Double the doubles of any anybody else. He has the potential to be a legitimate star, at least according to Bruce Seid, and all it took to get him was some shmuck by the name of Randy Wells. The Legend of Sam Fuld lives on in the North Side, where his diving catches and porous bat find a nice home as a fourth outfielder. Tony Gwynn Jr. is still no Tony Gwynn Sr. By the way, Alfonso Soriano has been exiled to AAA. That might be the funniest thing I’ve heard all day, and I heard a really good joke today.

To summarize

Not having a right side of the infield or a good shortstop or a catcher or good starting pitching or a lock down bullpen isn’t a huge problem, if you have a great outfield and a star corner player. Instead, the Cubs have a bunch of solid but not great outfielders and Aramis Ramirez, and no matter how good Ramirez is he’s no star. That leaves a team that could get overrated in projections, just because they have some recognizable faces, unlike a team like the Pirates. That’s why I don’t read preseason baseball magazines, and make my own crappy projections. Woohoo!

Prediction: 70-92, fifth place in the Central, counting on Mark Prior to come back

(P.S. I realize now that Mark Prior likely has a unique place in baseball history. He somehow only lasted 5 years in the big leagues; it sure seemed longer. For how good he was, the success was fleeting and derailed by injuries. Who else was so great and dominant and then all of a sudden lost it? Herb Score? JR Richard? Hopefully Mark will add another chapter to his story in the Bronx. He’s one Yankee I can root for. Prior's retired in my OOTPverse, sadly.)

[Big T]

Thats a very good Cubbies review..

I am guessing Pirates next?

[MadBum]

Originally Posted by Big T

Thats a very good Cubbies review..

I am guessing Pirates next?

Appreciate it, Big T. Cubs are actually a fun team to write about, mainly because their an easy target for the butt of my jokes. You, good sir, are a fine guesser.

[MadBum]

(using red instead of yellow to save your poor burning eyes)

A familiar position for the poor Pittsburgh Pirates in this round of projections; in the bottom half of the NL Central. Last year, the Pirates added 16 wins to their total, going from 62-99 to 78-84. Impressive, but their greek mathematician rating says they should have been 75-87. I’m not saying that the Pirates won’t continue to improve, but I’m not sure if they won't improve and end up with much the same results in the win-loss column. They’re young, and I really like the collection of talent they have. But in my humble opinion, the Bucs are still a year away from contention, and not quite ‘there’ yet.

The Duke of Pennsylvania

Most of you are baseball fans here, so I don’t have to say that this is the best rotation you’ve never heard of. You’ve heard of these guys, but maybe the casual OOTP fan doesn’t due to the fact they play in, well, Pittsburgh and not New York. Zach Duke and Paul Maholm are a pair of solid lefties at the top of the rotation, although both get by with ‘more guts than stuff’ (Hat tip to you if you remember that from the NL playoffs last year about The Beard). Duke’s better, but both are better than anything we got, unless you count superstud and American hero Yovani Gallardo. Speaking of America, I watched Captain America today and came away unimpressed. Speaking of unimpressed, Roy Halladay look-alike Charlie Morton and cattle farmer Ross Ohlendorf are nifty little righties, although despite the resemblance neither can be confused with Roy Halladay in terms of pitching results. Erratic lefty Dana Eveland has always been an enigma wrapped in a riddle wrapped in a sushi roll, but the lefty did provide some encouraging results last year for Big T’s Blue Jays. He’d be better off as a LOOGY in the bullpen, but he’s a talented lefty and will be given every chance to prove that he’s not Wilfredo Ledezma.

Where’s Jose Mesa when you need him?

Look for Jose Offerman, they’re probably in the same place. Anyhow, this bullpen is in some strange time-space continuum where no new pitchers are allowed in their gated area. Seriously, every pitcher in their pen pitched for the Pirates last year as well. Strange, but I guess pirate ships don’t like taking on new crew members. The Blackbeard of this ship is Octavio Dotel, 33 save man and Proven Closer (TM). He still guns it at 93, and the slider’s still nasty. Hasn’t lost a step, if losing a step had something to do with pitching. Other pitchers include Joel Hammerahan, he of 106 strikeouts, and Jerry Blevins, left hand specialist. Mitch Stetter, former Milwaukee man, is another good lefty, and Daniel McCutchon, starter last year, round out an okay bullpen. Not one that turns it into the 5 inning game everybody talks about, but one that’ll get 7 or 8 outs for you most of the time without difficulties.

Gosh Doumit!

Doumit, like darnit? Right? Right? Right…Okay, let’s cut to the chase: Ryan Doumit is one fine ballplayer. A switch hitting catcher with some sock, he can hit like a first basemen. The only problem is that he fields like one behind the plate, too. Catcher defense is an inexact science to quantify in both the real world and OOTP, so I’m sure Clint Hurdle’s purple face can deal with it. His partner in crime is Boston College product and likely Sawx fan Tony Sanchez, who’s very strong behind the plate and at it too. His home run power is a bit lacking, but his other talents are solid as well. AAA results were encouraging, but the stats seem to foreshadow him hitting .235 but still having value. Not what you look like in the fourth overall pick, but better than fellow fourth overall pick Brad Lincoln.

Incest? No, infield!

Hide the children! Nevermind, it’s just Mark Ellis! Creepy, but likely harmless. For the poor young baseball fan’s sake, we hope so. Anyway, former Athletic Great Ellis came over for some prospect named Gift and a pitcher. He totes along his great glove and banjo hitting ways to the shoddy infield of the Pitt Panthers. Aki Iwamura’s still around, just in case the fragile Ellis falls to the ground and breaks into a million little pieces. First sacker Garrett Jones shows that maybe the random AAAA slugger can still make it big; 43 dingers last year just validated that his 2009 breakout was no mirage. If chicks dig the longball, well then let’s just that Jones is one lucky, lucky man…let’s keep it G Rated here! The easiest way for the Pirates to break through and improve is for the Vanderbilt product Pedro Alvaraz goes from a 103 OPS+ guy in AAA to a 125 OPS+ guy in the bigs. Unlikely, but he’s still just 24, and the new car shine still has yet to come off. Finally, we have Luis Cruz play-alike Ryan Rohlinger, who does great work with the glove and little with the bat. In terms of middle of the pack NL Central teams go, our former Pirate Jack is better than their current version.

Young, Talented, Figuring Things Out, Character Problems

How else could I describe an outfield with Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge? Luckily, there’s no rap songs or wife beatings in OOTP, so Dukes and Milledge can just focus on channeling their immense talents into something positive. Dukes OPSed .844 and showed off some impressive plate discipline in 2010, and all his off the field problems are over. What could have been for him in the real world? We'll never know. Milledge is still rocking the dreads and stealing bases, but the addition of power has made him into a more useful ballplayer. However, his starting position is not Lastings because upstart Alex Presley has come from the depths of Indianapolis to take the job. He hit .337 in the International League last year, so it’s not like he’s some shmuck either. I’m sure there’s no McGriping about Andrew McCutchen, because while he’s a bit fragile Andrew’s still an electric center fielder. Good Fielder, baserunner, and just a solidly above average hitter. Type of player that gets underrated oftentimes, but a good and valuable one either way.

To sum up the past 987 words

Pittsburgh could easily challenge for the division title. If all their starters replicate their performance from last year, if the bullpen takes a step forward, if Rohlinger doesn’t slip to Bocockian levels with the bat, if Alvaraz acclimates to the bigs nicely, and if McCutchen stays healthy, this team could easily take the division, or at the very least break the string of .500less seasons. None of those are overwhelmingly unlikely, but I gotta back my boys and respect the more established Cardinals and Redlegs in the standings. Nothing personal, Pirates; 2012 will be yours (if the world doesn’t end first!)

Prediction: 77-85, fourth place, McGriping about McBadManagement

[MadBum]

I wanted to pick us second. I really did. I couldn’t, simply because the two teams ahead of us are just a slight level ahead of us. A shame, but if we get third place I’m thinking I did a fine job in running this team. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves; we’re an interesting team, in that we harken back to the golden days of…ah, you mean to tell me that the Steroid Era wasn’t the Golden Era? You people are weird. But this team fits the late 90s, early aughts strategy of just trying to bludgeon your opponent to death without a thought in the world toward that thing they called ‘pitching’. Who needs it?

That thing they call ‘Pitching’

Yovani Gallardo, right? Dude can pitch. Maybe the kid can’t throw strikes all that often, but he does everything else well. Gallardo struck (is that the right word for it?) out 10.3 men per nine inning, which is a very impressive number. To give you some context, Justin Verlander only had a rate of 8.1 last year. No, no you can’t have him. The mere thought of him makes me just all warm and giddy inside. It's safe to say that every fifth day, we'll have a chance to win with this guy on the mound.

Wait, I have to talk about the other guys too? **** it, I didn’t sign up for this. Here goes nothing, I guess. Okay…Jonathan Niese is a solid left handed hurler, nothing more. I don’t expect anything better than 105 ERA+ from him ever, but I don’t really like Carlos Gomez and I needed starting pitching. We've gone over this, I think. The trade’s still a win, at least in my book, and if Niese just is league average that’ll be plenty for us. The People’s Cherce is Erik Bedard, but fact of the matter is he had a 4.71 ERA last year and is 32. I’m not one to disagree with the people, but maybe you guys should select your choices better. Seriously. Greg Reynolds made the team as a Rule 5 Draft Pick, better than 90% of those selections can say. Hanging on will be more difficult, as he’ll have to convert a 129 ERA+ in AA to something worthwhile in the bigs. A mediocre assortment of pitches can only take you so far, even if you do have expert control. The hope is he turns into something like Jason Marquis, but odds are he’s closer to every right handed starter you see that doesn’t last longer than 3 starts. Ryan Sadowski! Finally, we have Randy Wolf. The less said, the better. What, you expected more out of me?

Bull in a China Shop

Are we at hitting yet? Are we hitting yet? Like an annoying 5 year old, I just want to get to the exciting part of this roadtrip. In case I haven’t given the inclination of this yet, I’m going with more of a bullpen by committee this year. Not that I’ll go closerless-far from it- but if the situation calls for it in the seventh, I’m going to bring in my relief ace. The relief ace, at least for now, is David Riske, mainly because he’s the only guy who was worth anything last year, despite him being just a few years younger than Julio Franco. Yes, he throws 87, and yes, he doesn’t strike anybody out, but he had a 3.22 ERA last year. That's awfully purty. Just don’t remember the .235 BABIP, because this decaying corpse needs to give some return on our investment. Jose Arredondo and Kelvin Pichardo are both hard throwing men who strike people out often, meaning they should be perfect for high leverage situations. Adam Miller hasn’t pitched in three years, but Miller has the top prospect polish…ooh, shiny! Out of Daniel Schlereth and Clay Zavada, I figure to get at least one quality lefty reliever. Both have the stuff, so it’s just a matter of figuring everything else out. Chase Wright’s another lefty, but he’s the guy that will clean up after Randy Wolf gets knocked out after the second inning. He can start, if necessary. We really hope it isn't.

The Only Thing They’re Catching is a Cold

I fleeced the Cubs for Geovany Soto, as I’ve detailed many times with great happiness. Let’s look at the facts about this guy: he hits 20 home runs, hits .280, and hits a ton of doubles. Maybe he strikes out a bit too frequently, and doesn’t walk enough, but he’s a catcher! If he had a .650 OPS, then he’d be fine offensively, but his is 200 points higher, making him in the eloquent words of the Lonely Island, a boss. On the other hand though, he is not on a boat with T-Pain. His arm isn’t very good, and maybe he isn’t great defensively. Everyone in life has problems, and Geo’s just has to do with defense. George Kottaras has everything you want in back-up; he has 20 home run power and can walk, meaning he’s good to go offensively. If he could play some better defense, he’d be a starter somewhere, but there’s a reason he’s here with us, and we’re happy to have him.

I got an ‘in’ with the field

Prince Fielder, the Vegetarian Behemoth, can hit a baseball a long away. As MLB commercials would say, he got a hold of that one, and last year he got a hold of 42 big ones. If he wasn’t such a galoot afield, he might be a little bit more valuable, but beggars can’t be choosers. Due to my genius GMing, he’s locked up for the foreseeable future. Our second sacker, Rickie Weeks, is what he is. He’s not a very good defensive second basemen, but he can walk and is good for 15 home runs. Maybe that’s not great, but it’s worth starting, especially when your alternative is Luis Cruz. Speaking of Luis Cruz, the signing of Jack Wilson is the only reason he isn’t our starting shortstop. Terrifying, but true. Captain Jack, as we call him, is a proven commodity at this point. He’s a spectacular shortstop in the field, with varying degrees of hitting success. If the BABIP fairies sprinkle some magic dust on him, he can hit .270 and be successful. If not, then he hits .220 and looks like a buffoon. Finally, at third we have longtime minor leaguer Casey McGehee. His comeback story is really adorable when his batting average is over .300, but when he’s hitting .257 with little walks and little power, you start looking for replacements. That’s why we have Derrick Mitchell as a utility infielder and third base insurance. Another Rule 5 pick, I gave him a spot despite a .255 average in spring training. What can I say, I’m a sucker for 27 home runs and an average over .300 in the minors. Don’t judge me, and no, he's 24. I made sure I wouldn't end up on How to Catch A Predator. Finally, we have the much-maligned Luis Cruz, who will appear frequently as a late inning defensive replacement. As long as he’s not hitting, we’re good, but if he’s at the plate then hide the children, because it won’t be pretty.

No Rap Songs this time around

You remember the first time you ever put a glove on, the magic you felt? Ryan Braun doesn’t, but I’m sure he remembers the first time when he first picked up a bat. Harsh, especially for a guy whose glovework has improved, but Ryan Braun will forever be known for his hitting abilities and not his speed and grace in the field. Braun’s not as big a power hitter as the one you remember, hitting only 22 home runs, but he’s still a quality player and all he does is win. Singers in the background: "I'm winning!" In center, the recently acquired Denard Span roams. He’s a prototypical leadoff hitter, drawing walks by the boatload and stealing 20 bases a season. He may just be average in the field, but the bat and his position make him an above-average player. Maybe not Ken Griffey Jr., but not former Brew Crew great Alex Sanchez either. In the 9 slot of the defense, we have Corey Hart. After his shenanigans were just above replacement level last year, we wonder how he could be so Hartless, but we’re not Kanye West either. Weird; I've been making a ton of music references lately, and my iPod hasn't been on for several days. He’s a strong candidate for a bounceback year, and at the very least he provides value with the glove. Maybe not the right fielder you want for your dream club, but he’s not an awful player. Behind him is Brad Nelson, whose dream is to pull a Garrett Jones and finally convert minor league power into major league dingers. If he does that, we don’t need to worry about Hart’s subpar bat. Willie Harris is a live body who can play center fielder, making him our fifth outfielder.

Brew Crew Summary

As mentioned before, we harken back to earlier in the decade in our playing style, with a lot of home run power and runs scoring but also a lot of home runs given up. In that sense, chicks completely dig us, and we all know that is a good thing. Hey, baby...How'd you get in here? Get out, I'm busy! Come back later! Sorry about that guys, she just saw our home runs and you know how that is. Anyway, like the Pirates, luck will decide where we finish. Erik Bedard and Randy Wolf becoming good starters again and Greg Reynolds turning into a solid pitcher may seem unlikely, but that’s the sort of thing that’ll have to happen for us to make the playoffs. Unlikely, but better than being the Desastros.

Prediction: 82-80, third place, 162 overly long game summaries

[MadBum]

When the Cincinnati Reds take the field this year, the PA Announcer will announce to a loving and adoring crowd, “Your 2010 NL Central Champions, the Cincinnati Reds!” The team will run on the field, the fans will go nuts, and everything will be right in the land of the Big Red Machine, at least for a moment. That is, until they realize that this team, last year, this year, and next year are outclassed by the Cardinals, and the Brewers and the Pirates are nipping at their heels. The Big Red Machine may have their NL Central pennant, but their window is closing fast. No Adam Dunn signing will fix that, and reliving the Rockie Mountain sweep last year won’t make them feel better. Flags fly forever, but that’s only until a strong wind blows them down.

Leaking Runs all over the place

You know how Johnny Cueto’s a bonafide ace in real life? Not here. He’s in the minors, trying to pick up the pieces from a 6-15, 6.51 ERA campaign a year ago. What they do have is the same core nucleus they do in real life: Aroldis Chapman, Edison Volquez, Aaron Harang, Homer Bailey, and Mike Leake. Chapman’s not a reliever here, not after his 10-2 campaign as a starter in AAA, and he’s still blowing 100 mph smoke. If he cuts down on the free passes, he’s an ace, but you can say the same thing for plenty of strikeout-happy left handers. It rarely does happen. Edison Volquez took his sweet time getting back from Tommy John surgery last year, making just 3 starts. The Curse of Dusty Baker continues; poor Mark Prior and Kerry Wood nod along in agreement. Volquez still has the ace form he showed in 2008, but like Chapman, it’s a matter of throwing strikes. Harder than it seems, of course. What the heck, why not continue the trend? Homer Bailey doesn’t have the huge problems of Edison or Aroldis, but his control doesn’t resemble Greg Maddux either. Funnily enough, he has the tendency to give up the Homer, with 28 allowed in just 27 starts. Keeping the ball in the park will be key for him to succeed this year, but his name makes sure those problems won’t be fixed. Aaron Harang was highly successful last year, primarily because he keeps his friends close and his walks lower. You can get away with striking out few doing that, but he struck out plenty (7 or so per 9). Problem is with him, he gave up 45 home runs last year. 45! That’s the most allowed in a season since 2000, when Lima Time allowed 48. Despite that, he had a 3.96 ERA. I say he’s due for a better one next year, just due to home run rate corrections, even if Harang will always be dinger-prone. Mike Leake said ‘meh’ to the minors, only throwing 3 starts, and jumped to the bigs from Arizona State seamlessly. 3.86 ERA ain’t bad, especially for a kid coming from the Sun Devils with no more than 120 innings on his arm. He doesn’t Leake runs, that’s for sure.

Cornrows

Bronson Arroyo’s in the bullpen, so I had to title it that. One year at 11 million left for him on this deal, so at least the Redlegs don’t have to keep him on the hook for his deal much longer. He should do fine in the bullpen, because a 4.22 ERA in the rotation translates to better in the bullpen. Middle relief, though. The man who gets the last 3 outs for this club is Nick Masset, 43 save man and beneficiary of a .235 BABIP. Still, he had 3.36 FIP and converted 91.5% of his save opportunities. I’d like to have him, instead of David Riske. 36 year old ex-closer Francisco Cordero was sent to middle relief quicker than a cheating ex-girlfriend is sent to the curb, but he’s still an effective hurler. Logan Ondrusek is very tall, and had a 1.96 ERA. He’s a Hypothetical Small Forward, but his career aspirations have taken him to the MLB instead of the NBA. Unlike Ondrusak, Danny Herrera’s 5-5 frame makes him a Hypothetical Spud Webb. Still a good lefty. Bill Bray and Jared Burton are typically solid in relief, but last year was a nightmare for them and who knows if they’ll ever find their old form. Relying on plenty of bouncebacks, but should get the outs necessary not to blow every game, especially with Masset, Ondrusek, Herrera, and Cordero.

Baker the Touchdown Maker and Hand it in Again

Bad puns, they’re my specialty. For example, putting in Chase Wright is always the Wright choice. The Touchdown Maker, John Baker, is the better part of a platoon, facing against only the lighter, er righter, side of pitching. That’s for the best, I think. All it took to get him was one defensively challenged left fielder Jonny Gomes. Ryan Hanigan had part of his job stolen by Baker, which may seem unfair, but his only asset is his defense. Maybe platooned exclusively against lefties, he can hit a fluky .300, but as long as he keeps hitting .240 his job is in jeopardy. In terms of platoons, this is a pretty good one, with both having their big weakness being covered. It’s a good arraignment, even if Dusty doesn’t get to somehow include Neifi Perez in it.

Foreign Infield, Step Right Up

Americans, Canadians, Dominicans, and Cubans…what else do you need? Well, a good shortstop, first of all. Paul Janish? Come on now. Colombian and last year’s shortstop Orlando Cabrera would add some more diversity, but he’s probably Paul Janish at 400k more. Savings! Of course, that doesn’t mean much, considering that Todd Frazier will be starting at short, but he’s not all that good defensively and we know how Dusty values defense. Janish, here we come! Brandon Phillips almost had an .800 OPS last year, and he plays good defense. He’s probably the best second sacker in the division, but when your closest competition is Rickie Weeks that ain’t saying much. Remember a couple of years ago when the Reds drafted that hotshot first base prospect out of Miami, and everyone yelled at the top of their lungs, “BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE!”? Well, Yonder Alonso has arrived, and Joey Votto’s going nowhere. Dude slugged .734 in AAA last year and a .635 SLG in his limited major league trial. Meanwhile, Votto is still hitting; even .331 last year. It’s called a logjam, Dusty; you have one. Time for a trade, and they’re both left-handed; impossible to platoon. At third, Juan Francisco and Scott Rolen are in a ‘platoon’, but it’s more of the Hacktastic Francisco show. Rolen will likely languish on the bench, while Francisco swings at the pitch over his head, down on the ground, and in the other batter’s box. He’ll keep Rolling in Cincy, though, because he has 2 years left on his deal. A ton of competition here, it should be interesting to watch.

BRUUUUUUUUUCEEE

Bit of a confusing outfield, with all sorts of shifting and shaping of the outfield. We’ll start with Adam Dunn, who returns home to Cincy after a hiatus in many, many towns. He did have 62 reasons to do so, after all. Bit confusing logic; Dunn hit a mere 17 home runs last year and his ISO dropped almost 100 points. A strong rebound candidate, but I wouldn’t bet 62 million dollars that he would do so. His secondary skills, gap power and average, are deteriorating and his defense is still absolutely horrific. That's not a player that ages well. Chris Dickerson and Drew Stubbs are both fast and defensively oriented; neither can hit a lick. When you have those other skills, you don’t need to be a great hitter, so those two do have some value in center. Another platoon, and yet another one that makes sense. Jay BRUUUUUUUUUUUCE has a cannon, and impressive power. If he had an OBP higher than .325, then he’d be a bit more useful, but a fine player nonetheless. Still just 24, I expect a breakout year from his .790 OPS a year ago to something in the .900s this year. I wish I had him in right field, that’s for sure.

No Re-Peat

I’ve read in several baseball circles that platooning or part-time play can cut a player’s performance 10%. I don’t know if it’s true or not, but I can remember playing part-time in my baseball playing past and it makes sense. Maybe the handedness can change some things, but I'd guesstimate it's still a 5% hit to performance. The Reds are running so many platoons, the hits to performance are going to catch up to them. I haven’t seen this kind of indecisiveness since I had to pick between Coke and Sprite when I was a youngster. On pure merit, I still think the Redbirds are better, but when you add in everything else the Reds slip behind by even more. Maybe when they run out of the field to the cheers everything will be fine; but something tells me we’re looking at a tiny little mechanical part instead of the Big Red Machine.

Prediction: 85-77, second place in the Central, a million Big Red Machine reunions without Pete Rose (unaffilliated) included

[Big T]

Very good reviews Madbum, I thought you might slide the Brew Crew into 2nd place.. I guess I have more confidence in you then you do..

Good luck with the season... I am really looking forward to see the game write ups..

[MadBum]

Originally Posted by Big T

Very good reviews Madbum, I thought you might slide the Brew Crew into 2nd place.. I guess I have more confidence in you then you do..

Good luck with the season... I am really looking forward to see the game write ups..

Appreciate the feedback as always, Big T. I really wanted to put us at second, but I couldn't justify picking a team with Jonathan Niese as their #2 to be that close. In secret, I believe we can win the division, but then again I'm watching the Giants offense right now and believing they'll score runs against the Desastros. I'm hopelessly optimistic

Glad you're looking forward to them. Since it's only 6:33 right now in these parts and I'm exhausted (as weird as it sounds, writing actually gives me energy), I'll give our Opening Day game a shot. It's against your Redlegs, so I'll try and take it easy on them

[MadBum]

Let me be out front with this: I hate the Cardinals. Can’t stand them. Can’t stand their mostly arrogant fans (MizzouRah seems like a nice enough guy), can’t stand Tony La Russa, can’t stand Joe Buck, can’t stand the arch, can’t stand anything about this team. There’s few things that torque me off; I’m usually a pretty mild-mannered guy that makes fun of people in a light hearted way. One of those is this; the Cardinals are sponsored by Busch, a fine purveyor of alcoholic beverages.

Josh Hancock was born in Cleveland, Mississippi. I had no clue that Cleveland, Mississippi existed, and I doubt you did either. It doesn’t sound like a great place to live, but again, I wouldn’t know.

I don’t know Josh Hancock, but he did seem like a guy who liked to have fun, perhaps too much fun. From most accounts, a fun loving guy who laughed a lot and made the most of life. Didn’t take himself too seriously, still had fun, the kind of guy people are attracted to and seem to have success in no matter what they do. A role model to some.

Early in the morning, April 29, 2007, Josh Hancock hit a tow truck in his Ford Explorer. If you know the basic workings of cars, you know that didn’t turn out too well for Josh. At the age of 29, teammate, brother, son, and friend Josh Hancock perished, far too young and with a long life ahead of him.

It’d be tragic and awful if that was the only circumstance involved, but sadly there’s more to the story. Marijuana was found in his truck, he was talking on his cell phone at the time of the incident (legal in St. Louis, I believe), he wasn’t wearing his seat belt, he was going 68 in a 55 zone, and his blood-alcohol level was twice the legal limit. Hancock was drunk and driving, and sometimes things like that don’t work out. It doesn’t make the situation any less tragic or saddening, but it does add some context to the situation.

What kind of hypocrisy is this? Tony La Russa was arrested for the same exact same thing that killed the man he managed Josh Hancock, and there’s no national outcry. How can you be that low? How can you do that? With all the tragedies involving baseball and drunk driving (Nick Adenhart comes to mind), La Russa goes out and makes a fool of himself, puts plenty of innocent pedestrains in immediate danger. Drunk driving is terrible and needs to be stopped no matter what the circumstances, but in the light of what happened to his player? Even you are better than this, Tony. There’s terrible people, and then there’s the kind of low lives that make you sick to your stomach. Given his history, La Russa is the latter. The organization is sponsored by an alcohol company, and yet when an employee die from abusing an alcoholic beverage there is no change, no mention of it, no nothing? I can understand wanting to make a corporate buck, but there’s a line, and that goes over it. I don't know if you can opt out of a sponsorship or not, but it just seems that something has to be done there, and no, we're not talking about saying "Drink Responsibly" before every home gome. Or maybe I’m overly sensitive to these kinds of things; you tell me.

I dislike the Cardinals organization, and no, it doesn’t have anything to do with the fact they’re the best team in the division or how Joe Buck sucks up to them or how they have an obnoxious fanbase. No, it goes deeper, and for that reason I hope the Brew Crew kick their ass.

Where we get back to baseball

This is your typically Cardinal squad. They still are anchored by Fat Albert, they still have almost exactly the same pitching rotation as they do in real life, and against right handers 8 of their 8 starters were in the organization in real life in 2010. They do have small improvements; Freddy Sanchez is a good platoon second basemen against righties, they do have a full season of Luke Gregerson, and they have plenty of players that should make incremental improvements to add to their 83 win total. It’ll mean a division crown, at least in my opinion, but they will meet the fate of plenty of NL Central playoff entrants: a very quick exit in the NLDS, and a plummet to the bottom of the standings the following year. With Pujols leaving sooner rather than later, the time for a World Series Crown is now, but it’s not happening. Not enough in the pitching, although Wainwright and Carpenter, and not enough in the hitting, even though Holliday is one heck of a second best hitter in the line-up and Colby Rasmus is very, very good and very, very young. It takes more than 5 men to win something more than playoff spot, and that will be the harsh reality the Redbirds face. I guess the stench of Skip Schumaker hurts my judgement, eh?

Prediction: 87-65, first place in the Central, 200 days of wondering why Craig Monroe and Jorge Julio are on the roster

Who’s ready for Opening Day?