Proposed Fictional League Dev/Aging Modifiers

[RonCo]

And here's ERA

[Ben E Lou]

It does look like a small downward trend overall there, but not as pronounced as what I'm seeing. I think you mentioned that you had scouts off. Any other non-default settings?

[RonCo]

Here's OPS. If it's a downward trend it's after 2050, really.

I'm using the default settings pretty much everywhere but aging/dev and the GM AI settings. No changes to league totals.

[evanbarth]

This is very impressive work. Im running a 2007 league, imported into this version. I assume these modifiers work for this purpose, do you agree?

I'm currently using the default modifiers which appear not to be the most accurate. So what do you suggest for that?

Also, when do you suggest changing it? Right now im 120 games into a season, should I wait?

Thanks for any advice, your work is truly impressive.

[RonCo]

I will say that it has always been an OOTP trend that players created in the innaugural draft have tended to be better offensively than those who are created in game and grow.

[RonCo]

I got interested. Here's the OPS data for my baseline league...all default settings. Major offense inflation.

[Ben E Lou]

Wow. I'm definitely going to "purge" my league. My next Quick Start league will use your dev modifiers and my new stats settings, and will be set up as follows:

1. Sim 1950-1975.
2. Delete all history.
3. Sim 1976-2000.
4. Leave history in tact.
5. Advance league to January 1, 2001.

For those who want to start with no history, they can always delete the 1976-2000 history, dump everyone into the pool, and start with an inaugural draft. But at least this way, the league should give static stats since it will have 2+ generations of game-generated players.

[discodude5]

RonCo great work.
In the test leagues I did I had turned injuries off so it looks like the injury setting could contribute to the decrease of offense after what skydog and akw4572 posted.

[Eugene Church]

Originally Posted by RonCo

I will say that it has always been an OOTP trend that players created in the innaugural draft have tended to be better offensively than those who are created in game and grow.

So this could explain why my league batting average drops from .260 to .250 over ten years?

[akw4572]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Wow. I'm definitely going to "purge" my league. My next Quick Start league will use your dev modifiers and my new stats settings, and will be set up as follows:

1. Sim 1950-1975.
2. Delete all history.
3. Sim 1976-2000.
4. Leave history in tact.
5. Advance league to January 1, 2001.

For those who want to start with no history, they can always delete the 1976-2000 history, dump everyone into the pool, and start with an inaugural draft. But at least this way, the league should give static stats since it will have 2+ generations of game-generated players.

In my 100 year sim, I am still seeing years where, using RonCo.'s modifiers, and your league totals, consistently years of slugging in the .380-.385 range, instead of the .400 target. And that's in the last 25 years on the sim, so I think, even after the initial guys are gone the numbers need a bump. I had one year with the slugging above .390, and it was .391.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by akw4572

In my 100 year sim, I am still seeing years where, using RonCo.'s modifiers, and your league totals, consistently years of slugging in the .380-.385 range, instead of the .400 target. And that's in the last 25 years on the sim, so I think, even after the initial guys are gone the numbers need a bump. I had one year with the slugging above .390, and it was .391.

You're not following me. Ron's dev settings reduce offense. That's why I'm coming up with new league totals.

But incidentally, it's not as much fluctuation as I previously thought. It's mainly the first few seasons.

Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - Alright Boyz, Here We Go!!!! (OOTP9 First Impressions...)

[akw4572]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

You're not following me. Ron's dev settings reduce offense. That's why I'm coming up with new league totals.

But incidentally, it's not as much fluctuation as I previously thought. It's mainly the first few seasons.

Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - Alright Boyz, Here We Go!!!! (OOTP9 First Impressions...)

Ok, I thought you meant that it only reduced totals in the original initial draft players, and not the ones generated in amateur drafts. So you ARE working on a set of league totals that will produce your offensive totals, to work with his dev. modifiers?

[evanbarth]

Originally Posted by evanbarth

This is very impressive work. Im running a 2007 league, imported into this version. I assume these modifiers work for this purpose, do you agree?

I'm currently using the default modifiers which appear not to be the most accurate. So what do you suggest for that?

Also, when do you suggest changing it? Right now im 120 games into a season, should I wait?

Thanks for any advice, your work is truly impressive.

Just hoping you had advice for me? Thanks very much!

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by akw4572

Ok, I thought you meant that it only reduced totals in the original initial draft players, and not the ones generated in amateur drafts. So you ARE working on a set of league totals that will produce your offensive totals, to work with his dev. modifiers?

Yes. And I *might* be finished. The current run is in 2033 and looking quite good. It should be finished at around 4:30pm. I'll check it and evaluate it then. If it turns out how I think it will, I'll have something then.

[akw4572]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Yes. And I *might* be finished. The current run is in 2033 and looking quite good. It should be finished at around 4:30pm. I'll check it and evaluate it then. If it turns out how I think it will, I'll have something then.

Good, I can't get it nailed down. I thought I had it, but couldn't get strikeouts and slugging right.

[Ben E Lou]

Yup. I think I've got it. I'm cutting this test short at 67 seasons. All the key elements ended up within 1.5% of the targets and (at least in this trial run), I managed to squash the early-career issues pretty well, too, but I think that was just an anomaly. At any rate, dropping the first 25 seasons, the next 42 came out with .2609 avg, .4007 slg, .7306 ops. That's pretty much exactly what I'm looking for. I'll post the new sets in my thread in a few...

[noble]

So the aging and dev modifiers are found in the pdf file in post #2 or are they the ones in Post #1?

RonCo, very impressed with your work.

[noble]

never mind, they are the same, sorry

[RonCo]

Thanks, noble.

SkyDog is the bestest.

[Ben E Lou]

I started up a new test league with the NABA QS (which uses my stats settings and RonCo's dev settings) and ran it overnight, with injuries and fatigue both set to average. I'm *thrilled* to report that even with the slowed dev, accelerated decline, and injuries bumped up to average, some very appropriate milestones were reached. Here's a quick synopsis:


BATTING AVERAGE

Single-Season: .4000. Yup. Dead-even. 29-year-old Stanford Mann was 232 for 580 in 2069.
Career: .3451. Mann also set the career milestone. He hit over .350 six times

HITS

Single-Season: 240. Tom Hopkins did it twice, at age 28 and age 30. Speaking of college players, he was drafted in June 2045 as a 22-year-old. He started out in Low-A ball, was promoted to A before 2045 was over. He spent most of 2046 in AA, but was promoted to AAA by the end of that year. HE started at 2047 as a 24-year-old in AAA, but was an NABA starter at age 24 by midseason, and collected 335 ABs that year.
Career: 4,033. Carlos "Iceman" Gallegos was drafted 1(1) at age 17. He hit .308 in 224 NABA ABs at age 19. and was a full-time starter at age 20. His best years were age 26 to 33, in which he had an OPS of 1.096 or higher every season. His last season of star-type production was at age 39 (.934 OPS). He was a decent everyday player at 40 (25.2 VORP), and used as a pinch-hitter at 41. 15 players collected 3,000 hits or more.

HOME RUNS

Single-Season: 61. Two players reached the magical 60. Thom Kendrick hit 61 at age 27 in 2017. Juan Arteaga had 60 at age 27 in 2040. Arteaga is another college player who made it to the bigs quickly. He was drafted at age 21 in 2034, played thre rest of that season in A ball, half a season in AAA, and by midseason at age 22, he was a full-time starter in the NABA. (He had 322 ABs that year with a respectable .787 OPS).
Career: 722. The Iceman not only holds the hit record, but the HR record as well. Like Aaron, longevity defined his record. He had more than 46 HRs only once (56 at age 29). Gallegos appeared to have a nice increase in batting eye as he aged. His first season with more than 100 walks was at age 27, and he peaked at 149 at age 35, and had 130 even at age 40. 18 players had 500 or more for theri career.

STOLEN BASES

Single-Season: 107. Hector Villa had 107 at age 30. Looking at his numbers makes me believe that 120 or 130 may well be possible. His OBP that year was only .337. I would suspect that a player could be generated with a better batting eye and similar speed. Rickey might not be as safe as I'd originally thought.
Career: 1145. Ed Parker was never a top-tier SB guy, maxing out at 76 in a season, but he was very consistent, collecting 50 or more 15 times.

EARNED RUN AVERAGE

Single-Season: 1.461. 26-year-old Julio Negron went 19-6 with a 1.46 ERA in 2057 to set the all-time mark.
Career: 1.816 (RP) and 2.318 (SP): SP Antonio Gonzalez turned in ERAs under 2.00 eight times in his career, and even had a 2.18 at age 38. (He's another example of a college kid who stormed the bigs quickly. He threw 142 NABA innings at age 22, and had a full season at age 23. RP Jose Delgado was a prolific closer for 17 seasons, never having an ERA higher than 2.84, and never saving fewer than 25 games in a season.

STRIKEOUTS

Single-Season: 347. 26-year-old Gonzalo Costa mowed down 347 NABA hitters in 249IP in 2049. 300 Ks in a single season was achieved 26 times.
Career: 5,052. Antonio Gonzalez, mentioned above, is the only pitcher to break 5,000. 6 broke 4,000, and 34 broke 3,000.

WINS

Single-Season: 26. It was done four times, at ages 22, 26, 24, and 31.
Career: 387. Lalo Mendez won 15 at age 21, and had his best years from 24 to 36. 8 pitchers broke 300, and 26 had 250 or better.

SAVES

Single-Season: 58. Nick Lewis set this all-time mark at age 29. 16 guys had 50 or more.
Career: 733. Jerome Turner was a closer from age 21 to 39, and remained in the 'pen until age 42. 600 was eclipsed 5 times, and 500 was broken 17 times. Depending on your view of closers, you might want to consider 550 or 600 as the HOF minimum.