Konerko Inked

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by eriqjaffe

Given the market (and the number of quality first basemen available this year), I could have seen him getting a 5/75 deal.

Which would be utterly asinine.... and unjustifyable.

[eriqjaffe]

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

This is a very shortsighted argument. In my opinion, you should put the best possible product on the field without handicapping yourself in the future.

It's not always possible to do both.

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

I completely agree with this... but what's better for PR than consistently winning?

Being owned by one of the largest media outlets in the country, that's what. The baseball dynamic in Chicago is different from most other places. Over the past 16 years, the Sox have compiled a .532 winning percentage (with only four losing campaigns) three division titles and a World Series title. In that same span, the Cubs have a .481 winning percentage, one division title and a wild card appearance.

Since 1990, the Cubs have outdrawn the Sox by an average of 566,402 per year.

...so winning doesn't necessarily translate into anything at the gate. The Cubs have had the benefits of Wrigley Field, the surrounding neighborhood, Sammy Sosa, and being owned by a newspaper and superstation. THAT is PR.

[Sublimity]

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

what's better for PR than consistently winning?

Statehood, maybe?

[TonyJ]

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb, dumbdy, dumbdy, dumb.

Yup. Stupid and amazingly stupid.

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by eriqjaffe

It's not always possible to do both.

You misunderstood... I mean, the first prerequisite would be to not handicap yourself in the future. So, put the best product on the field that you can without doing so.

...so winning doesn't necessarily translate into anything at the gate. The Cubs have had the benefits of Wrigley Field, the surrounding neighborhood, Sammy Sosa, and being owned by a newspaper and superstation. THAT is PR.

Just winning games doesn't.. consistently being a player and a putting yourself in good position to succeed (aka make the playoffs) has been a proven moneymaker.

You can't use the Cubs as a legitimate yardstick for success on the business end of things. Teams need to measure up relative to their own situation... and handicapping themselves 4-5 years down the line isn't going to do much from a PR standpoint.

[Luis_Rivera]

I can't find the original article that I read at THT a couple months ago that studied the effects of making the playoffs/winning the WS on revenue vs. being consistently above average... but I think this series of 3 articles is based around that concept:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...player-part-1/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...player-part-2/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...player-part-3/

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

I can't find the original article that I read at THT a couple months ago that studied the effects of making the playoffs/winning the WS on revenue vs. being consistently above average... but I think this series of 3 articles is based around that concept:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...player-part-1/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...player-part-2/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...player-part-3/

An article would have to prove both constant conjunction and causality. It would have to prove that teams that go to more playoffs make more money, not that teams that make more money go to more playoffs. That might be tricky.

[Urth]

Some excellent points here framing Paulie's performances rather nicely, but I need to take issue with the notion that "there are slightly lesser players available for cheap". When looking at the available free agents out there, I see a cast of guys like Jeff Conine, John Mabry, Mike Piazza, Travis Lee, Erubial Durazo, "Vitamin-B" Palmiero...guys who I think even DH would be hard-pressed to suggest are "slightly lesser" players then Konerko. Lee and Durazo may very well become as (nearly?) productive as Konerko, but coming off injury-plagued ( Durazo ) and inconsistant ( Lee ) seasons last year, are these really viable options to replace your best run-producer?

Now, if we're talking about being creative, say, moving Dye to 1st in order to pursue an outfielder...well, there's Tori Hunter, "7-year" Damon, Juan Encarnacion, Juan Gonzalez, Preston Wilson ( $12.5M in '05 , by the way... ). Besides the issue of putting a solid right fielder in at 1st, each of these players have issues ( health, age, performance, price? ) of their own, and you honestly see any of them hitting 4th or 5th in the order, providing protection for Thome? How about trading for Manny Ramirez? I doubt that the BoSox would accept anything less than a handful of top notch prospects, like Anderson and McCarthy, et al...which raises the specter of trading the future for a (very) expensive short-term solution.

Other options? Re-sign Thomas, hoping for a healthy season? Bring up Rogowski, who hasn't even seen AAA pitching yet? Plug in Gload, hoping for the best after a lousy un-Gload-like year ( yes, in limited action)? Bring in Sammy Sosa for a farewell tour?

Well, I think that Konerko isn't a $12.5M/year player either, but the deal ain't happening in a vacuum. In the context of the Free-Agent Market, circa 2005, there aren't many good hitters available, period, let alone good power-hitting first basemen. In the case of the White Sox, they need to improve their offense. With trading for Thome, they did just that. Letting Konerko walk, without a similar option available, is a step backwards. Given Chicago's needs, and given the market, I just don't see how this is a *dumb* move. I see it as the least harmful of several dubious options.

Originally Posted by cknox0723

For what it's worth, Konerko's subpar 2003 season was largely due to a very poor first half, which Baseball Prospectus surmised at the time was due to his taking too many pitches, and being forced into unfavorable counts. Paulie's second half numbers, the gang said, were right in line with reasonable expectations of his performance, a level he is still at or perhaps slightly above.

Albeit now he has added (or so we assume) an above-average walk rate to his repertoire. Maybe it was a one-year fluke, similar to another former Pale Hoseman in Carlos Lee, or maybe it is largely the product of seeing US Cell turn some of those doubles into home runs the past few years, and the requisite respect that comes with being known as a 40-HR man. I would guess it is the latter, but really that is much ado about something rather unimportant.

See, I am in the camp with darkhorse and Luis_Rivera, in that I think this is not a very smart deal, regardless whether Konerko's OBP is .360 or .380 or even .400 next year. See, it is not so much next year that is the problem, but a few years down the line. The contracts given to Thome and Giambi and Palmeiro and Dave Segui and even someone dopey like Bob Higginson all look silly in hindsight, and look at some of Konerko's similar players over at Baseball Reference. Three of the most similar, in my opinion, are Alvin Davis, Kent Hrbek, and Tony Clark. Tony the Snake's bizarre 30-home run season this year means that those three players contributed exactly three half-decent seasons after the age of 30, zero from Davis and two from Hrbek. Before that age...ten, twelve, fifteen, somethin' like that. If that is not a sign that Konerko is perhaps not going to age like a fine wine, then I'm not sure I know what is.

That's notwithstanding Konerko's reputation for being injury prone when he was coming up with LA of LA. I understand why this seems like a good deal, and maybe for a year or two it will be, especially for a team that needs to win now.

Vladimir Guerrero makes around the same amount of dough per annum as Konerko will. Who would you rather have? No, Guerrero was not available for $12 mill this offseason, and maybe no one even remotely as talented as him would be for the next few years. But that doesn't mean you throw gobs of cash at the nearest power hitter. Sure, taken to the logical extreme, a plan like this would cost you wins in the short term. But it is not as if the choice is solely between Konerko and, for example, a guy just above replacement-level like Gload. As dh said, there are many slightly lesser players available for very cheap.

I would love to be wrong about this, because then I will learn something new, but I think we will be able to look back on this thread as soon as 2007 and say, "Dayam, what were the Pale Hose thinking?"

And on that note [shameless plug alert]...heyyy, check the sig!

P.S. - Sorry to break up the chain of one-word responses.

[eriqjaffe]

Originally Posted by Urth

Bring in Sammy Sosa for a farewell tour?

Gah! My eyes! My eyes!

[AnotherAlias]

Dumb deal?

I don't know. I think I would rather defer to Kenny Williams and his skills as a General Manager, knowing that he's accomplished quite a bit (like winning a WS) before I would go along with the opinions of people on a message forum that haven't.

I don't think there were any better alternatives.

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by AnotherAlias

And they would have swept the World Series without him?

Adam Kennedy wondered why he is only making 3 mil per year. Well, now he knows who to blame.

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by Urth

When looking at the available free agents out there, I see a cast of guys like Jeff Conine, John Mabry, Mike Piazza, Travis Lee, Erubial Durazo, "Vitamin-B" Palmiero...guys who I think even DH would be hard-pressed to suggest are "slightly lesser" players then Konerko.

People seem to be under the impression that Konerko is a really fine player. Umm, no. It is highly unlikely he will perform as well as he did last year, when he wasn't remotely an MVP candidate. It is much more likely that he will be the .280 EQA, solid D guy who was good for 4-5 wins a year for his team the previous four out of five seasons. Oh, yeah, he sucked ass one of those seasons. That level of performance is pathetically easy to replace. You don't even need to need to dip into the overpriced FA flesh market to do that. Nor should a club. Teams make these stupid deals when they rationalize that they have no choice. There are fookloads of options for replacing players of Konerko's ability and position.

[darkhorse]

The White Sox weren't going to win anything in 2006, and Kenny Williams is making sure, with deals like the one for Konerko, that another title contender will be a long time coming.

[eriqjaffe]

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Oh, yeah, he sucked ass one of those seasons.

The first half of 2003, yes. The second half of that year was actually in line with the rest of his career.

Originally Posted by darkhorse

The White Sox weren't going to win anything in 2006, and Kenny Williams is making sure, with deals like the one for Konerko, that another title contender will be a long time coming.

Most people picked the Sox to finish third or fourth the AL Central in 2005, too.

[Jestor]

Originally Posted by darkhorse

The White Sox weren't going to win anything in 2006, and Kenny Williams is making sure, with deals like the one for Konerko, that another title contender will be a long time coming.

With all the **** you're talking, I'm going to love throwing it back in your face if the White Sox repeat.

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by eriqjaffe

The first half of 2003, yes. The second half of that year was actually in line with the rest of his career.

And for the year as a whole, Konerko was awful.

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by Jestor

With all the **** you're talking, I'm going to love throwing it back in your face if the White Sox repeat.

If the White Sox repeat next year, fire away. It will be well deserved. That would certainly end any speculation that Chicago caught lightning in a bottle and fluked to a championship. I would think the same if they made the playoffs in 2006.

[SouthSoxFan]

Originally Posted by darkhorse

There are fookloads of options for replacing players of Konerko's ability and position.

Amazing how you have chosesn to name not even one. Only to generalize

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by SouthSoxFan

Amazing how you have chosesn to name not even one. Only to generalize

Say wha? We've already covered this ground. Do you even read the posts before responding?

[darkhorse]

dola,

Originally Posted by SouthSoxFan

I guess the "smart" option(s) will remain your secret.

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Acquiring someone like Kotchman who is much younger, cheaper, and probably better, leaves a team with options and financial room to maneuver. You could get someone like Petagine for a song. Replacing players of Konerko's ability and position is pitiful easy.