Boston Red Sox 2005-06 Offseason Thread - Page 4

Luis_Rivera · 10-28-2005, 06:48 PM

There's just too much in the above (well, 3 above this one) post for me to dissect right now so I'll just say these things:

1. I don't want Damon back at any realistic price
2. I have an unhealthy hetero-man-love for Dustin Pedroia
3. Renteria will be our SS next year... Furcal is not an option
4. Get Glendon Rusch... please
5. I'd also like Rudy Seanez if possible
6. Giles will be signing on the West Coast

QuestGAV · 10-29-2005, 12:52 AM

I think they should sign Nomahhhh to a 1-yr deal at the league minimum to play 3b and convince Mo Vaughn to come out of retirement and take over at first again. His knees have got to be better by now, don't they? With Mo and Nomar in the lineup again you don't need Manny anymore and can trade him along with Bronson Arroyo to the Twins for Torii Hunter and Johan Santana.

QuestGAV · 10-29-2005, 02:14 PM

Apparently Manny has in fact told the Red Sox that they must trade him or he will not report to spring training. Of course, he's only got that certain list of teams he will consider going to. This could be a difficult situation for the Sox. I think the only way to approach it is telling them that they're not going to consider it unless he agrees to waive his 10/5 rights for all teams. I don't think for a rare good like Manny you can get any value in a limited market like that. So they've got to play hardball from the start and call his bluff if they have to.

I know the Mets rejected it the first time, but would you guys take Beltran for Manny straight up if the Mets would? A little bit less money, a couple more years (albeit younger years than what's left of Manny's contract). You'd also have no pressure to resign Johnny Damon to a damaging contract and can probably find a more reasonable corner outfield replacement than CF. Manny and Beltran really aren't that far off in WARP to start with and Beltran is obviously much younger. I think Beltran is destined to be the Mets more expensive version of Edgar Renteria, a guy who has no chance of meeting expectations there through very little fault of his own.

Luis_Rivera · 10-29-2005, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuestGAV

I know the Mets rejected it the first time, but would you guys take Beltran for Manny straight up if the Mets would?

**** no. I want to be out of a bad contract sooner than later.

mlyons · 10-29-2005, 02:39 PM

Ramirez is making a ****load of money, it's true, but I think it's pretty debatable whether or not he's overpaid, given the huge offensive contributions he's made during his contract so far. The same can not be said for Carlos Beltran, whose OPS+ of 95 last season and 109 for his career (compare to Manny's 156 for both) do not come close to being worth the ****loads of money he's being paid.

darkhorse · 10-29-2005, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

Ramirez is making a ****load of money, it's true, but I think it's pretty debatable whether or not he's overpaid, given the huge offensive contributions he's made during his contract so far. The same can not be said for Carlos Beltran, whose OPS+ of 95 last season and 109 for his career (compare to Manny's 156 for both) do not come close to being worth the ****loads of money he's being paid.

What are the respective contracts of Beltran and Ramirez?

Ramirez has obviously had a much better career, but Beltran is five years younger and gives good offense from a prime defensive position. Also, the discrepancy between the two players is minimal in the last five years. Here's how WARP1 sees their respective contributions during that span.

Code:

           CB    MR         
2001      8.1    7.7
2002      6.7    7.4
2003      7.2    8.1
2004      8.9    6.7
2005      5.0    6.6
Totals   35.9   36.5

Luis_Rivera · 10-29-2005, 02:51 PM

I think you can debate whether or not he has been overpaid. On a go-forward basis, though... I can't see much justification for his contract.

mh2365 · 10-29-2005, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by plus1handicap

I would also like to see the Red Sox shop Mirebelli around too. If Shoppach really has the skills to make it - then it is time to show it. From what I understand he is a very good defensive catcher. Trading Belli in favor of Shoppach would also free some money (believe Belli is making 1-2 million a year - to shoppach's league minimum which i believe is around $300,000)

Can't see Mirabelli going anywhere as long as Wakefield is still pitching for us

mlyons · 10-29-2005, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

What are the respective contracts of Beltran and Ramirez?

Ramirez has obviously had a much better career, but Beltran is five years younger and gives good offense from a prime defensive position. Also, the discrepancy between the two players is minimal in the last five years. Here's how WARP1 sees their respective contributions during that span.

Code:

           CB    MR         
2001      8.1    7.7
2002      6.7    7.4
2003      7.2    8.1
2004      8.9    6.7
2005      5.0    6.6
Totals   35.9   36.5

WARP isn't really a good stat to use when looking at contracts, though, for a couple of reasons. First, not every position is paid the same, so a metric that compares players to other players at a given position isn't really relevant, unless you're also comparing salary by position. Second, the salary structure of MLB (league minimum for three years, followed by arbritration for three years, followed by the big paycheck) means any player is going to look overpaid as compared to a replacement-level player, since the replacement-level player is almost always making league minimum, which can be anywhere from five to eighty times less than the veteran.

darkhorse · 10-29-2005, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

WARP isn't really a good stat to use when looking at contracts, though, for a couple of reasons. First, not every position is paid the same, so a metric that compares players to other players at a given position isn't really relevant, unless you're also comparing salary by position.

I don't really care about any other players. This was a simple comparison of outfielders Beltran and Manny's value to their respective teams.

Luis_Rivera · 10-29-2005, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mh2365

Can't see Mirabelli going anywhere as long as Wakefield is still pitching for us

I believe the Sox matched up Shoppach and Charlie Zink, a knuckleballer in our system, in AAA a few times last year.

mlyons · 10-29-2005, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

I don't really care about any other players. This was a simple comparison of outfielders Beltran and Manny's value to their respective teams.

It's still comparing apples to oranges. WARP doesn't tell you much about a particular player's market value, and that's really the important thing when you're looking at contracts.

darkhorse · 10-29-2005, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

It's still comparing apples to oranges. WARP doesn't tell you much about a particular player's market value, and that's really the important thing when you're looking at contracts.

So, a player's performance doesn't have much bearing on his market value?

mlyons · 10-29-2005, 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

So, a player's performance doesn't have much bearing on his market value?

It certainly does -- but WARP doesn't necessarily give you a better insight into it (with respect to market value) than OPS+ does.

darkhorse · 10-29-2005, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

It certainly does -- but WARP doesn't necessarily give you a better insight into it (with respect to market value) than OPS+ does.

As OPS+ is a flawed metric with no measure of defensive value, I'd respectfully disagree. Certainly wouldn't explain Beltran's contract.

mlyons · 10-29-2005, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

As OPS+ is a flawed metric with no measure of defensive value, I'd respectfully disagree. Certainly wouldn't explain Beltran's contract.

The only thing that explains Beltran's contract is a couple of weeks in October 2004.

mlyons · 10-29-2005, 04:12 PM

dola

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

As OPS+ is a flawed metric with no measure of defensive value, I'd respectfully disagree. Certainly wouldn't explain Beltran's contract.

And as WARP is a black box formula that often produces results that don't really gibe with other metrics, I'm still not sure I'd value it more than OPS+ in any circumstance. At least I know how OPS+ is derived.

darkhorse · 10-29-2005, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

The only thing that explains Beltran's contract is a couple of weeks in October 2004.

So, Crede can be looking forward to a similar bump?

darkhorse · 10-29-2005, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

At least I know how OPS+ is derived.

It is simple.......... and unbalanced.

Skipaway · 10-29-2005, 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

The only thing that explains Beltran's contract is a couple of weeks in October 2004.

People speculated about how he'd be vastly overpaid nearly a year before that.

10-29-2005, 02:39 PM	#65
mlyons Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 3,725	Ramirez is making a **load of money, it's true, but I think it's pretty debatable whether or not he's overpaid, given the huge offensive contributions he's made during his contract so far. The same can not be said for Carlos Beltran, whose OPS+ of 95 last season and 109 for his career (compare to Manny's 156 for both) do not come close to being worth the **loads of money he's being paid. __________________ Things can always be worse.

10-28-2005, 06:48 PM	#61
Luis_Rivera Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 4,177	There's just too much in the above (well, 3 above this one) post for me to dissect right now so I'll just say these things: 1. I don't want Damon back at any realistic price 2. I have an unhealthy hetero-man-love for Dustin Pedroia 3. Renteria will be our SS next year... Furcal is not an option 4. Get Glendon Rusch... please 5. I'd also like Rudy Seanez if possible 6. Giles will be signing on the West Coast

10-29-2005, 12:52 AM	#62
QuestGAV Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 2,010	I think they should sign Nomahhhh to a 1-yr deal at the league minimum to play 3b and convince Mo Vaughn to come out of retirement and take over at first again. His knees have got to be better by now, don't they? With Mo and Nomar in the lineup again you don't need Manny anymore and can trade him along with Bronson Arroyo to the Twins for Torii Hunter and Johan Santana.

10-29-2005, 02:14 PM	#63
QuestGAV Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 2,010	Apparently Manny has in fact told the Red Sox that they must trade him or he will not report to spring training. Of course, he's only got that certain list of teams he will consider going to. This could be a difficult situation for the Sox. I think the only way to approach it is telling them that they're not going to consider it unless he agrees to waive his 10/5 rights for all teams. I don't think for a rare good like Manny you can get any value in a limited market like that. So they've got to play hardball from the start and call his bluff if they have to. I know the Mets rejected it the first time, but would you guys take Beltran for Manny straight up if the Mets would? A little bit less money, a couple more years (albeit younger years than what's left of Manny's contract). You'd also have no pressure to resign Johnny Damon to a damaging contract and can probably find a more reasonable corner outfield replacement than CF. Manny and Beltran really aren't that far off in WARP to start with and Beltran is obviously much younger. I think Beltran is destined to be the Mets more expensive version of Edgar Renteria, a guy who has no chance of meeting expectations there through very little fault of his own.

10-29-2005, 02:51 PM	#67
Luis_Rivera Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 4,177	I think you can debate whether or not he has been overpaid. On a go-forward basis, though... I can't see much justification for his contract.