Yet Another OOTP6 Dynasty, Year 2: One Flew Over the Pale Hose

[rem]

Ramon Vazquez = Tony Womack sans speed

[The Funk]

You've clearly jinxed him now. And if you haven't, this post surely has.

[cknox0723]

To sum up the post at the bottom of the last page:

Originally Posted by remangiii

Ramon Vazquez = Tony Womack sans speed

Maybe. But the year Womack hit .307 was also the year where his team won the NL pennant.

I have nothing more at the moment, but maybe later. And I don't think later means "two days from now" any longer.

Originally Posted by The Funk

+1

[The Funk]

You know, I don't usually like blowing my own (massively long) trumpet, but looking back now from a slightly more detached perspective, that really was a top notch +1

[cknox0723]

Here is the best +1 of all.

[Jestor]

After 95 games they have a 5.5 game lead? That means they're almost guaranteed to still be in the lead after 100 games!

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by Jestor

After 95 games they have a 5.5 game lead? That means they're almost guaranteed to still be in the lead after 100 games!

almost?

[cknox0723]

Third base may be the "hot corner", but it is a paltry forty degrees in the Garden State tonight.

Eric Munson plays third base for the Pale Hose. You may not have known that before reading this post. Now you do.

[cknox0723]

The Jim Gentile of the Pale Hose, third baseman Eric Munson has finally escaped AAA after battering too many small-town fastballs to count. The big league fastballs have treated him a little more brusquely, but Munson has still struck back occasionally, and with enough authority to make it worthwhile. His .251 batting average and .324 on-base mark don't jump off the page, but they're miles ahead of the sickly .235 and .274 marks that Joe Crede put up last season, and Munson's 14 home runs have been a fine treat worthy of a double dip.

You can break Munson's line down in a variety of ways and conclude that he's not as good as all that -- outside of a scorching May (.618 SLG, 7 HR) and a pretty decent July, he's been a boon(e) to the offense; he's done nothing at home (.630 OPS) that Crede couldn't have, since U.S. Cellular saps his power; he can't hit lefties and that forces us to carry a platoon man (no luck with that so far); Munson's .133 average in close & late situations and 1-8 pinch-hitting line suggest that Eric is in fact a shrub, and not worthy of big league limelight or kitty cats. All that may be true, and Joe Crede has knocked 29 doubles and 12 homers and is hitting a tolerable .259 for Cleveland, so likelihood is we could've kept him and gotten the same production that Munson's given us.

That still can't diminish what he has given us -- a year of something resembling quality third base play, and for a cheap contract plus "incentives." Of course it could've been better, if we had a platoon partner that could hit those evil lefties that Munson can't touch, but you didn't really think guys named Hillenbrand or Branyan or Enrique "The Relief Ace" Wilson were going to be the answer, did you? They've never really been any good, and now they are approaching the age of 30 or past it. There's no incentive for them to keep at it anymore, so maybe that is why the attrition rate is so high for fringe players in their early thirties.

It is for a similar reason that I don't see Munson as any more than a temporary solution at the hot corner. He has provided more than Joe Crede ever did, and every bit of more has allowed us the catbird's seat in the Central in the middle of July 2007, less than a full calendar year after we recorded loss number ninety-three in the last game of the season. But he's also going to be thirty years old by the end of this season, and that's the age where you'd better be damned sure the guy can play, 'cause ain't no new tricks to be learned at thirty. (By ballplayers, at least) Munson's had a nice run this year, but his career batting line in the majors, 838 at-bats, is just .218/.289/.391. Sure, he hit the cover off the ball a few years running in the minor leagues, but even those 50 home run lines were accompanied by triple digit strikeouts and a .290 average. Yes, I know .290 is "good", but .290 in AAA don't mean .290 in MLB, now does it? Sure, good players can strike out, and they don't need to have a high batting average, but the good players can make up for those flaws in ways the donkey-footed Munson cannot. Don't pity him; he's lived the life so many dreamed about, and he'll have those memories and a pocket full of change to keep him company for a long time. But don't be shocked when he's not back next year.

I would talk at length about his possible replacements, but we'll have to see if the surprising contenders in Florida hang onto the multitalented Mike Lowell first. With a .300 average and .490 slugging, he's having one of the best seasons a 33 year old with a .282/.346/.471 career line can have -- but that is no real surprise, because if he was hitting like Crede, how would the Marlins be a "surprising contender" anyway? He's an excellent defender as well and the ideal hot corner man; unfortunately he is 34 years old, but we ain't gonna get him if he's still ripe, are we?

While that saga plays out, I feel like it might be smart to dip back into the frozen well up north to pick up utilityman Dave Berg from Toronto for the stretch run. He is a million years old and hit a paltry .232 last year, but is hitting at a strong .297 clip this year and has a long record of batting lines that are at least respectable. He can handle pitchers of any hand, if the statistical record is any indication, though if we face the Mets in the WORLD SERIES and he faces that youngster Vince Cordova who is a hunchback and throws with his crooked right foot, I think we may have a problem. Unfortunately the Blue Jays have made a wee surge in the standings recently with a 6-3 run, and they are only 5.5 out of the wild card despite a 44-50 overall record.

Perhaps we will have a clearer picture after 100 games. If we ever get there.

We will.

[DAL 9000]

I can't believe you actually used the words "double dip" to talk about anything other than a threesome. I hereby revoke your guy card, Craig.

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by DAL 9000

I can't believe you actually used the words "double dip" to talk about anything other than a threesome. I hereby revoke your guy card, Craig.

Actually, the phrase I was going for was "french dip" -- I looked at the sign at the ice cream shoppe the other day, and that's what it said. But Google that and you will get all these pictures of sandwiches. Very frustrating.

Also, this is a family dynasty thread, so no talk about threesomes unless they are with the Devil Rays. And even then we'll probably lose two out of three.

[cknox0723]

You might look at the veterans manning our outfield with all of their awards and accolades and high salaries and conclude it's a position of strength. That wouldn't be the biggest leap in the world; they ain't 36 years old, after all, and they're joined by a 25 year old rabblerouser who's had a pretty auspicious debut season. But the Pale Hose outfield is more pomp than circumstance and more ketchup than french fry; there are bigger fish to fry in keeping this team solid in the future, so don't go sobbing into your pillow, but don't look at where the guys are batting in the order or how many RBI they have and conclude we're in good shape here.

Brian Anderson is the young gun, and his .284/.344/.437 line shouldn't be sneezed at, unless you're like me and not a big fan of pollen, which is everywhere. Anderson's batting numbers in his first grasp at everyday play in the bigs are a pretty good translation for a minor league career where he hit through three levels in three years, culminating with last year's .307/.370/.479 line in 355 AB for AAA Charlotte. There are only two blips on the statistical radar -- a home/road split heavily in favor of the former, probably something we will encounter with every right-handed batter ever to come through these parts, and also a sick .436 batting average (17 hits in 39 AB) with runners in scoring position. That's allowed Anderson to bat in an impressive 34 runners in 209 plate appearances (190 AB) -- keep that up in the second half, kid, and I won't complain about the outfield.

Vernon Wells was the big midseason acquisition, picked up when Toronto had one of their little Canadian fits. He's a three-time All-Star, a thirty home run man, smack in his prime at 28 years old, a hell of a centerfielder -- trouble is he sucks. No, really. Since an 8 home run April, Wells is slugging just a wee bit under .400, and he's six for thirty (.200) in a Pale Hose uniform. "So why trade for him?" you ask. Wells is "a player with extraordinary talent," I say, and also he was cheap. Plus, he gives us a proven cleanup man and exudes the appearance of a veteran at the age of 28. And finally he is certainly an upgrade on fourth outfielder Raul Gonzalez. I love that boy -- a waiver wire find who has made good in the bigs for the first time at age 33, but stretched is he playing everyday.

Magglio Ordonez plays right field under the psuedonym "Buddha" and honestly I am not sure why at this point. All I know is that three years ago he slugged .600+, hitting .327 with 39 home runs, scoring 100+ times and driving in over 100 runners and winning MVP. His batting average dropped precipitously the next season, as is wont to happen to overrated award recipients in a karmically just world, and then in August Maggs broke his wrist, diving for a ball in the outfield in a stupid, meaningless game against Kansas City in the doldrums of a 100-loss season. His power stroke's been missing in action ever since, and it is to the point where I'm not sure it's ever coming back, glowing scouting reports be damned. Magglio's plate discipline has evolved quite a bit from when he was fresh-faced n00b, as he's on pace for a career-high in walks with around 75. But how much of this plate discipline is reputation? "Buddha" was a hell of a hitter a few years ago. The guys who've been batting behind him most of the season, Eric Munson or Brian Anderson or Raul Gonzalez, have never been any good outside of small-towns, so wouldn't you rather pitch to them regardless?

Ordonez has hit 271 home runs in a psuedo-career that has been mostly illustrious, but he is 33 years old and all the signs say that career home run #300 may not come until 2009, two seasons from now. He's under contract at $9.8 million per annum until then, so we'll see it regardless. But it'll be a pity if it takes 1,000 outs to get there.

Unfortunately Ordonez will remain the right fielder for games on end by inertia, 'cause ain't no one coming up through the farm anytime soon. Michael "Lucky" Houchins was the #8 overall selection two drafts ago, but he's been a bust ever since I've run this little franchise aground, failing to hit anything at all. His .255/.339/.429 line this season indicated a hairbreadth of skills, even if it was only in a second trip at AA at the age of 25...but then Houchins went and fractured his hand in June. Here we are nearing the end of July, and "Lucky" is about ready to play ball again, but even the most unbridled optimist (read: idiot) would say that his luck's about run out.

Scott Podsednik of Milwaukee is really the kind of guy we could use. Far from the banjo-hitting "fast guy" his counterpart is, this "Pods" is a consistent .300 hitter with doubles power, speed, and brilliant defense thrown in for good measure. He's stolen 42 bases in 46 attempts this season to boot, and his contract is appropriately due to expire at season's end. Our weak-hitting (.248 avg - 23rd in MLB), slow (38 SB - 24th) team could really use a jolt from "Pods" now, but the cost is extremely steep, as Milwaukee will only accept our only real prospect (gee, I wonder why) in last year's first rounder, Chris Scarborough, the live-armed right-hander who's maybe a few twirls from the big leagues. And they want more beyond that, probably in the form of the young dynamo Brian Anderson, who would be rendered unnecessary by the acquisition of another outfielder anyway.

I can't bring myself to give away this kid Scarborough (5-3, 5.45 in 74 AAA innings), especially since we might be able to win (or lose!) the division we currently lead by five-and-a-half with or without "Pods." Whatever Scarborough may become, he is ours, and I feel compelled to keep him.

But this may also be the best chance we ever get to win a flag. Hell, once I throw some pitching numbers up here, it will become more apparent than ever that we're lucky to be where we are. But we're here, so might as well stay. Another real major league hitter would be a big help in that.

What do you think?

[Jestor]

As much as I love Scotty iPod, Scarborough Mediocre is the quintessential Pale Hose player in my opinion. Overrated by scouts in the beginning, now underrated and scoffed at after some minor league troubles. He, like the Pale Hose, is surging now, and to deal him would be to commit an act bordering on treason.

Say no to the postmodern Scotty iPod. Say yes to the timeless and classic Scarborough Faire.

[seth70liz76]

I say make the move for Scotty Pods. If I've learned anything from the Pale Hose (which I haven't) it is "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect." If you think you can win, make the move for the known quanity.

[zukes]

I have been saying go for it, meaning trade the Toronto suburb (Scarborough) for whatever you think will put you over the edge this year. Next year be damned, this is the Pale Hose we're talking about, you'll be lucky to win 50 games next year. GO FOR IT!!!

[CTSoxFan]

Keep Scarborough, when I think of your Pale Hose he is one of the guys I think of. He is one of your first big additions to the organization and he represents everything good about the Pale Hose. Keep him and let him do what he can, your winning somehow with this team, so keep it up and don't do anything drastic

[cknox0723]

2 votes for THE trade, 2 against. Good thing I have the tiebreaker.

But first a few short notes on the pitching and then maybe we will play a ballgame tomorrow or something.

[cknox0723]

Maybe the Pale Hose have gone from losing to winning in a year's time because the pitching has improved so dramatically. The staff ranks ninth in the league in earned run average as of this writing - fifth in opponents' avg, 12th in opposing home runs hit, and ninth in runs allowed. The bottom of the barrel twenty-sixth place ranking in walks allowed offers some proof that there are different ways to skin a cat.

I was inclined to think that the pitching improvement is due to the success of the guys at the margins of the staff. We have gotten 60 quality innings out of journeyman Ryan Franklin, 34, an All-Star in Cincinnati two and three years ago. A pickup from the far reaches of the north, Michael Nannini, has also given us five wins and at 26 years old, there can be hope he'll improve. Of course his strikeout rate is marginal and batters thump him for quite a bit of power, and three of his starts have been against last-place Tampa, two against last-place Oakland, and two more were teams in our sorry division; it's been a fun nine starts just the same. Nannini gave up six runs in five-plus innings against the only real lineup he's faced, Texas; basically his succes has been molded, shaped, created - out of nothing.

But how is that any different from the success enjoyed by the holdovers from last year's staff?

LEGEND (for the footy fans and Google spiders):
PLAYER = the mechanism actuating a player piano
IP = innings pitched
RA = run average (like EarnedRA, only without the niceties about who deserves
credit and who was perfectly blameless)

PLAYER		'06 IP	'06 RA	'07 IP	'07 RA
M. Buehrle	246.1	3.43	146.1	3.14
J. Garland	197.1	4.06	123.1	4.31
E. Loaiza	199.2	6.40	134.1	3.15
J. DePaula	166.2	5.45	35.2	9.59
J. Rauch	119.1	5.36	38.1	6.58
R. Ankiel	58.0	6.36	26.1	5.47
P.J. Bevis	69.2	6.46	39.2	4.08
K. Calero	67.1	4.55	44.2	2.01
M. Gallo	61.2	5.40	40.2	2.43
A. Otsuka	75.0	4.08	49.0	4.04
J. Roa		93.0	2.90	40.1	4.69

Amazing how quickly a few baseball statistics can allow you to separate wheat from chaff. But what to make of the big gainers on the list? Esteban Loaiza is the man of interest, because he surrendered hits and runs at an extraordinary rate last season. Some of his improvement is inherent, just from sticking around for a few months; maybe if he had pitched like DePaula or Rauch in April, we wouldn't be having this discussion. I do also feel that Loaiza was hurt significantly by the KRAAAAZY defensive scheme concocted last season. Dmitri Young was a hell of a hitter but a left fielder in name only. Center fielder Joe Borchard had a stellar defensive rep, but also floating around him is the idea of explosive power. The 28 year old has certainly displayed that in Cincinnati this year, "raking" to the tune of .213/.275/.352 - 13 home runs in 324 AB.

Aliens inhabited one-time second baseman Juan Uribe, which made defense problematic for him. Also third baseman Joe Crede was generally terrible at all things that took place on a baseball diamond, and whoever played first base probably sucked at catching the ball, too. Such is the Pale Hose legacy, but it's better than nothing.

This pitching staff is also better than nothing, but not so much so that I trust it to continue. Seven pitchers on the staff are allowing runs less frequently than they did last year. Maybe you can give 2B Adam "Gumby" Kennedy and SS "Pokey" Vazquez and a fistful of outfielders some of the credit for that, but they're not bringing back all of the home runs that Calero and Bevis aren't allowing, and those guys aren't catching all the balls hit in the gaps so Loaiza et al. don't allow no doubles. Maybe some of these guys (Loaiza, for one) are simply better pitchers than they showed last year, but all of 'em? There's got to be a middle ground somewhere, but we ain't seen it yet this year.

Surely we'll see that miresome medium of mediocrity by the end of 2008 (that's next year in this universe, kiddies) - I'd prefer that we delay it as long as possible. If you think it ain't comin', then you've got more faith in the indefensible than do I. Skeptic as I am, it is time to do what I can to keep this club winning.

[zukes]

Originally Posted by cknox0723

it is time to do what I can to keep this club winning.

Buh-bye Scarborough, don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out.

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by zukes

Buh-bye Scarborough, don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out.

Something like that.

You ready for it?

Trade with Toronto! :

Toronto gets:
OF Clint King

We get:
UT Dave Berg

OK, not really. But give it a few days and I think I can convince Toronto management on that one, though. Berg makes a nifty utility man, so I hope we can swing it.

Anyway, here is the trade we have all been waiting for. You think July 21, '07 will be known as the day the Pale Hose sewed up the division title, or an ignominious day of infamy?

Trade with Milwaukee! :

Milwaukee gets :
22 yr old RHSP Chris Scarborough - 1st-rd pick '06, no MLB experience, but immediately the #1 Milwaukee starter. Only questions concern his health, his control, and his hunger for gopher food. Has the height, slider, changeup, and nasty strikeout rates that scream out future stardom.
25 yr old CF Brian Anderson - 190 AB, .284/.344/.437, likely NL RoY and forms a dynamic duo with 25 yr old RF Krynzel, who is not very good but runs around a lot to make up for it. Has been a clutch hitter all year - 4 HR but 34 RBI, a .436 avg. with runners in scoring position (39 AB). If that is repeatable, Anderson is an above-average corner outfielder. Has 5 errors in 20 games in LF and 0 errors in 30 games in CF.
29 yr old LHRP Mike Gallo - 40.2 IP, 2.21 ERA and he is lefty! Merely ambulatory last year (5.25 ERA), otherwise indistinguished in his career, so offseason arbitration hearings can't come soon enough.
25 yr old LHSP Ryan Wing - C-grade prospect until this year - 6-10 with a 4.91 ERA for AAA Charlotte)

We get :
31 yr old CF Scott Podsednik - 339 AB, .330/.410/.481 and 42 for 46 in SB, a free agent after the season and will he ever cash in. Too bad this is probably his last moment on top of the mountain. But maybe he can help us reach the top of the American League Central mountain? For this price, it better be more than just maybe.
35 yr old 2B Wil Cordero - 282 AB, .255/.335/.447, handles left-handers well and can play all over the field. Probably stretched playing everyday, but: 1. it's worked in MIL for the last year and a half and 2. he won't have to with Kennedy and all the rest still around.
30 yr old RHSP Wade Miller - 62 IP, 3.63 ERA, all in relief save for a 4.2 inning forgettable start. 8-15 record last season with a 4.64 ERA, so got booted to the 'pen this year despite $4.8+ million contract that runs through next season. But he's an 88-70 career pitcher who has proven durable in this world, and I like him as a nice Loaiza replacement for next season. Will hang out in our bullpen the rest of this year barring something unforeseen.
33 yr old C Wiki Gonzalez - AAA-filler, slugging .467 down "there" but would struggle to hit even .220 in the big-town game

So there you go. We got a real ballclub now...so let's play a little baseball, shall we?