The Bucs Start Here - A Pirates Do-Over

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

So, a guy comes in with a planned career better or worse than historical then by chance development pushes him the same direction then by chance TCR pushes him the same direction and Tim Foli ends up in the Hall of Fame or Reggie Jackson ends up a career bench player. There are just TOO MANY ways a player's performance can be affected. Yes, there should be some surprises, maybe a star being a super star or a good everyday player but this is just wrong.

Just remember, we are talking here about a NON-RECALC environment. Under which circumstances, EVERY player is in effect fictional based on the ratings provided and affected - for better or worse - by TCR and this preordained flight path.

That is what I am saying here. Happy to be proved wrong. And, like I said, I find this totally reasonable. I just wish I knew about it beforehand.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Do you think that after a time with accumulated anecdotal observations a person will be able to figure out if a player is going to perform better than worse than historical?

You kind of can on a year-by-year basis by looking in the editor at the start of a season. That will give you a rough projection of how they'll perform, and their POT ratings at that juncture are some indication of future performance, although again this changes over time as a result of these other factors.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by luckymann

That is what I am saying here. Happy to be proved wrong. And, like I said, I find this totally reasonable. I just wish I knew about it beforehand.

The user manual is seriously deficient. Both in lacking information and having wrong information.

I believe there is a lack of internal documentation also. Some of what has been done has been forgotten.

[luckymann]

My two cents and then, if it's OK I'd like to just leave it there as this has kind of hijacked the thread.

When something really good comes along it is human nature to try and equate it with perfection and then end up being disappointed.

And, no-one can argue that OOTP is really, really good. Miles better than anything else and a miraculous achievement.

But it isn't and never will be perfect.

I am not complaining about these discoveries, nor am I upset by them. In fact, I'm thrilled to have come to this conclusion and learned something in the process, even if I end up being proved somewhat off the mark. As I have said, I believe them to be totally reasonable and the options this game gives you to tailor it to your wishes are unparalleled. If you want true-to-type historical or a variance thereupon, then you can achieve it. If you want utterly random outcomes, ditto.

Yes, the manual and documentation needs a huge overhaul and certain elements of how the game works should be made more transparent. Only a few and only to a certain degree. But who is to decide which and by how much? Therein, as The Bard said, lieth the rub.

Onward and upward, back to the Bucs!

[luckymann]

A nice month from the lads, who battle hard to finish with a 16-10 record.




Not much else to report as both divisions settle in for the long haul. The Sens have cooled off just a bit but still lead the AL by 5, while the Phils have started the season positively to sit atop the senior circuit. We trail them by 3 at the time of writing.



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[luckymann]

It would appear Smoky Joe Wood has played his last game for us. We weren't going to re-sign him after his contract runs out at season end, but we'll certainly miss him as he's been super handy for us with both bat and ball. Walter "Steel Arm" Davis gets his first crack at the bigs.

[luckymann]

Cocky Collins and Scoops Carey on the hit parade, albeit at slightly different levels. After our own Ty Cobb, Collins is the only person to make it to 3k.

[luckymann]

Just reward for one of the most consistent pitchers to have ever graced this league with their presence. Get that plaque ready, boys.



Here's the Top 20 career wins list, on which Dick sits number 5.

[luckymann]

[luckymann]

No complaints at all from me as the lads keep digging deep despite it being one of those seasons where little luck goes our way. We lose 56 Varieties for a month, Charley for 2 weeks, and a couple other players for short spells with niggling injuries. Still we manage a 16-12 month.



We certainly aren't setting the stat rankings alight with the bats, but our pitchers have been superb, and can take most of the credit for us being where we are entering July.





It's fair to say we are batting with about 2/3 of a lineup, with the right side of our IF not giving us much at all. The catchers have been outstanding, as have Williams and Cobb, but the latter's team-high 2.3 WAR shows just how down in production we are.




Streeter has grown in stature this season and, especially given Brown's absence, has been massive for us. Cooper has done what he usually does - grind out the wins - and Bill Foster, after an 0-4 start, turns it right around to go 4-0 in June and win the Rookie award. The rotation's performance is even more important because our usually ironclad BP has popped a few leaks this year, especially Richter who may well find this is his final go-around with us.



Unless something dramatic takes hold, the AL looks like it's going to be a cakewalk for the Sens, who have streeted the field. The NL seems likely to be where all the drama is this year, with things staying very tight indeed.




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[luckymann]

Another great season in the making for Ken, and he is on song in this one.

[luckymann]

I won't lie to you, we are barely hanging in there. Charley is still out and we this week lost Traynor to a yet-undisclosed injury for a yet-undisclosed amount of time. We have everything corssed it is nothing serious and we get him back soon because we look like a patchwork quilt right now and are almost out on our feet. EDIT he'll be out for 5-6 weeks...

That said, the lads keep finding ways to win. Performances like this one from our backup players have been key to their doing so.

[luckymann]

Right now, we are close enough if good enough. I wasn't in my wildest dreams that we'd be in this position and I'm sure as Helen Keller not going to let it pass without doing whatever I can - within reason - to push for another run at the playoffs and perhaps win it all.

So I make this trade:

TRADE 2 OF 3 (07/18/24)
IF Newt Allen, P Cliff Bell and P Reggie Richter traded to Brooklyn for IF Specs Toporcer.

Newt was becoming more and more an "all-glove / no-bat" type and I just didn't see that turning around. With Lundy, Moore and Gerber we already have 3 guys who are more defence- then offence-heavy and we're just carrying too much dead weight in this regard. The lads have been fantastic but the effort is beginning to tell.

I've already mentioned Reggie's problems this season and offloading him now rather than just releasing him at the end of the season at least realises some value.

Cliff is just a notch under MLB-quality and we're well stocked with those types as well.

For all of this we get a quality bat who is also very good defensively. Specs plays 2B / 3B / SS and improves us no end. He's also under team control another couple years.

A good move for our club, both now and moving forward.

[luckymann]

Hot on Cocky Collins' heels, Tris Speaker joins the 3000-hit brigade.

He is obviously a lock for the Hall, given he has the highest WAR (136.37 at the end of 1923) of any player save Walter Johnson, whom he'll in all likelihood beat in this metric when they've both hung 'em up, and is Top 5 all-time in a host of other categories. Add to that 2 Championships, 6 MVPs and an artillery of other silverware and it has been a pretty special career, as it was IRL.

A bit down on HR and BA but other than that the game has replicated his IRL career brilliantly. That WAR total is within 2 of his 134 historical mark and his ribbie and runs scored totals are also right in line. He should make his career hit total of 3514 or go very close to it.

[luckymann]

One of the greatest individual achievements so far in this league has come to an end, with Washington's Ira Flagstead hitless today to call time on his record hitting streak at an astonishing 46 games, an improvement of 10 on the previous mark.

This will be a tough one to beat.

He is understandably having some sort of season, as are his 67-34 Sens. Slashing 399/456/564 with 7 HR, 59 RBI (not far off his career best of 66), a 463 wOBA, 184 wRC+ and 5.8 WAR. Impressive stuff indeed.

[luckymann]

The Little Engine that Could keeps believing it can with a 19-11 July that defies most metrics and applicable logic.



It is, purely and simply, our scrappiness and pitching that is carrying us. Nothing pretty about how we're playing, but it continues to prove effective. Lots of low-scoring wins. Surprisingly, we have the league's best RD at + 118. Not sure what to take from that.

I looked for some way to improve us again, mainly with a backup 1B / CF, but couldn't get anyone to bite with the players we are interested in.




The thing is, if everything happens as expected we get both Brown and Traynor back sometime in the middle of August. We lead the div by 5 at the time of writing and if we can just maintain that gap, the presence of these two will be a huge fillip for us heading into the stretch. But we can't think on that, we just need to keep winning however we can. No change in the AL with the Sens in complete control, 12 clear of the BoSox.



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[luckymann]

I go on about how our pitching has been the driving force behind us riding so high, but - despite not being your prototypical leadoff man (0 SB all season) - this guy has been superb at the top of the order and this is a special performance indeed.

[luckymann]

I'll start with the good news...




Now for the "bad".

I thought I had set the league's LTMs to 1940 to offset the HR compression being experienced in this save. A couple days ago I starting thinking the HR total was still way down, checked it against 1940 and yep, a massive shortfall from where it should be at this part of the season. Then checked the LTMs to find the 1924 totals in place. I presume the game automatically applied them on the morning of OD after I'd set them to 1940 a couple days before.

Lesson learned. I was tempted to reapply the 1940 totals there and then but opted out lest I completely hink things up. Next year. There's always next year...

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by luckymann

I go on about how our pitching has been the driving force behind us riding so high, but - despite not being your prototypical leadoff man (0 SB all season) - this guy has been superb at the top of the order and this is a special performance indeed.

Are you setting the batting order? If not I'm surprised an AI manager is batting a non SB player first.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Are you setting the batting order? If not I'm surprised an AI manager is batting a non SB player first.

Yep. Playing this way (setting lineups but then fast-simming), I have our SB strategy set really conservatively anyway. Only the top-rated guys get more than half to the right on the slider as well. Charleston leads for us with 14 or so thru 100 games, which is fine. With Cobb at 3 and Ken Williams at 4, I'd rather have them on base and trust the hitters' abilities than risk everything unnecessarily just trying to get them into scoring position.

My main logic behind this is the AI's ridiculous tendency for trying to steal with 2 out or its near-addiction with regard to stealing 3rd. It was resulting in <50% success rates across the board. I'm a sabermatrician by heart, and therefore view 66% as break even. So it didn't wash with me.